Dredd Blog: On The Origin of the Sea-level Seesaw

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

On The Origin of the Sea-level Seesaw

Fig. 1 Sinbad the Sailor grasped
by the Old Man of the Sea

I. Work @ Home

When scientists do not do their "homework," a long-lasting form of secular mythology can ensue.

The same applies to science writers and to journalists who could care less.

The serious scientist's homework can be defined as "being or becoming aware of what fellow scientists have published" on the subject at hand.

In the case of sea level change (SLC), regular readers know that Dredd Blog has talked about some of the homework assignments that should have been done, but never-the-less were never done.

II. Historical Records

In the case of a scientist publishing a scientific paper on sea level, there are many historical records of various forms, the ultimate being the published science paper in a relevant scientific journal.

Fig. 2 "Thermal" goes both ways

For example, a scientist who definitely does his homework, pointed out that Woodward published a paper in 1888 about seesaw dynamics:

To our knowledge, Woodward (1888) was the first to demonstrate that the rapid melting of an ice sheet would lead to a geographically variable sea level change. Woodward (1888) assumed a rigid, non-rotating Earth, and therefore self-gravitation of the surface load was the only contributor to the predicted departure from a geographically uniform (i.e. eustatic) sea level rise. This departure was large and counter-intuitive. Specifically, sea level was predicted to fall within ∼2000 km of a melting ice sheet, and to rise with progressively higher amplitude at greater distances. The physics governing this redistribution is straightforward.

(On the West Side of Zero, emphasis added). Nevertheless, some scientists, science writers, and journalists "did not have a clue," and still don't, about why the seesaw pattern is "the norm" (Climate Change and El Niño Will Make Ocean Levels Swing Like a Seesaw, Climate Threatens Pacific with Seesaw Sea Levels).

I mean "the norm" for the sea-levels of the world written in the history "books" which we call "tide gauge station" records (Questionable "Scientific" Papers - 3, Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 54, SLC Fingerprints R Us - 2).

A premier source for the raw data, which should be combined with scientific inquiry and comment in journals, would be the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL).

III. Taking Time To Just Think About It

The venerable Dr. Mitrovica mentions in his video presentation in Washington, D.C., that he was given good advice a couple of decades ago when he asked a senior scientist for some advice.

Fig. 3 North & South of Zero

The senior scientist replied and told him to always take time to think about an issue without any other influence or disturbance (The Gravity of Sea Level Change, video).

That would be good advice for us to take into consideration when considering the large and small of the sea level seesaw dynamics that are the norm in tide gauge records around the world.

Today, as pointed out by the Union of Concerned Scientists, we still think of thermal expansion as the "big dog" in the SLC of the early days:

"Rising temperatures are warming ocean waters, which expand as the temperature increases. This thermal expansion was the main driver of global sea level rise for 75 - 100 years after the start of the Industrial Revolution, though its relative contribution has declined as the shrinking of land ice has accelerated."

(UCSUSA, emphasis added). Yesterday's post took some exception to that notion (Questionable "Scientific" Papers - 3).

IV. Sea Level Rise Is Expansion
But
Sea Level Fall Is Contraction

If you will notice Fig. 2 and Fig.3, then think about it, thermal has to do with temperature.

Temperature has to do with both low and high temperatures (4 below zero is a temperature, as is 20 above zero).

Any temperature below or above the optimum thermal point for maximum water density, 4^oC, will cause thermal expansion of water.

When the ocean water is at 4^oC, the water will thermally expand whether the temperature goes up or it goes down.

V. Enter Woodward and His Scientific Progeny

Thus, as Dredd Blog has been wont to do for way too long, according to some disgruntled readers, we must turn to the geophysical realm to discern a good part of the saga and the science of SLC.

Dr. Mitrivica, a learned scientist and one who respects the work of those scientists whose shoulders we now stand upon, knocked the socks off of those of us who are now expanding upon his concepts that were an expansion upon the work of Woodward (1888).

The series begun today will, in future posts, take a very close look at the causes of the seesaw pattern of SLC, a pattern as I have said, that is composed of both SLR and SLF, as was pointed out in the first post:

Station Name	Number	Latitude	Longitude	↕mm	Year
FOGLO-DEGERBY	249	60.0318832	20.3848171	212	1996
PAGO-PAGO	539	-14.2799997	-170.6900024	242	1999
WEIPA	1157	-12.6666670	141.8666687	180	1972
VICTOR-HARBOUR	1069	-35.5624809	138.6354065	139	1997
PORT-ADELAIDE-OUTER-HARBOR	448	-34.7797623	138.4807281	137	1972
BUNBURY	834	-33.3234444	115.6599731	130	2011
FREMANTLE	111	-32.0655556	115.7481384	139	1940
ST-GEORGES-ESSO-PIER-BERMUDA	368	32.3733330	-64.7033310	152	1974
ILHA-FISCAL	1032	-22.8966675	-43.1666679	169	1971
NEW-WESTMINSTER	1245	49.2000008	-122.9166641	221	1977
SAINT-JOHN-NB	195	45.2666664	-66.0666656	129	2014
QUEBEC-LAUZON	173	46.8333321	-71.1666641	165	1948
DESCHAILLONS	201	46.5666656	-72.0999985	346	2012
PORT-SAINT-FRANCOIS	137	46.2666664	-72.6166687	530	2012
TROIS-RIVIERES	126	46.3333321	-72.5500031	784	1944
BATISCAN	144	46.5000000	-72.2500000	392	2008
PORTNEUF	951	46.6833344	-71.8833313	226	1999
NEUVILLE	192	46.7000008	-71.5666656	190	1999
ST-JOSEPH-DE-LA-RIVE	1244	47.4500008	-70.3666687	155	1980
TUKTOYAKTUK	1000	69.4166641	-132.9666595	152	1967
ANTOFAGASTA-2	510	-23.6530552	-70.4044418	132	1973
VALPARAISO	499	-33.0272217	-71.6258316	141	1997
PENRHYN	1450	-9.0166674	-158.0666656	182	1983
BAKAR	353	45.2999992	14.5333328	133	1951
SPLIT-RT-MARJANA	685	43.5083313	16.3916664	158	2011
GEDSER	120	54.5727768	11.9255562	191	2007
RODBYHAVN	762	54.6558342	11.3486109	287	1980
KOBENHAVN	82	55.7050018	12.6000004	131	1961
HORNBAEK	119	56.0911102	12.4583330	142	1961
HIRTSHALS	89	57.5955544	9.9638891	138	1961
HANSTHOLM	703	57.1188889	8.5955563	140	1984
ESBJERG	80	55.4608345	8.4411106	168	1996
SANTA-CRUZ	1472	-0.7500000	-90.3166656	235	1997
KEMI	229	65.6733704	24.5152493	248	1939
OULU-ULEABORG	79	65.0403137	25.4182339	243	1961
RAAHE-BRAHESTAD	240	64.6663361	24.4070492	246	1961
PIETARSAARI-JAKOBSTAD	194	63.7085686	22.6895828	233	1961
VAASA-VASA	57	63.0815315	21.5711823	217	1939
KASKINEN-KASKO	285	62.3439484	21.2148323	220	1996
MANTYLUOTO	172	61.5943832	21.4634323	217	1996
RAUMA-RAUMO	376	61.1335335	21.4258175	212	1961
TURKU-ABO	239	60.4282837	22.1005325	220	1961
HANKO-HANGO	71	59.8228683	22.9765835	203	1996
HELSINKI	14	60.1536331	24.9562168	244	1996
HAMINA	315	60.5627670	27.1791992	248	1961
MARSEILLE	61	43.2788010	5.3538599	150	1951
POTI	41	42.1666679	41.6833344	183	1970
BATUMI	51	41.6333313	41.7000008	168	1949
SASSNITZ	397	54.5108337	13.6430559	148	1996
WISMAR-2	8	53.8988876	11.4580564	138	1952
PREVEZA	410	38.9590797	20.7566280	129	1991
PIRAIEVS	374	37.9373283	23.6267147	132	1992
ALEXANDROUPOLIS	1238	40.8441391	25.8782711	140	2011
APRA-HARBOUR-GUAM	540	13.4383326	144.6533356	231	1972
TAI-PO-KAU-TOLO-HARBOUR	1034	22.4424992	114.1838913	173	1970
HANASAKI-II	1442	43.2780571	145.5677795	136	1995
KAMINATO-II-HATIZYO-SIMA	1440	33.1302795	139.8047180	618	2002
MIYAKE-SIMA	1060	34.0672226	139.4808350	295	2001
KOZU-SIMA	1061	34.2091675	139.1316681	1143	2007
KURE-I	1320	33.3336105	133.2433319	139	2005
KANTON-ISLAND-B	1329	-2.8166671	-171.7166595	154	1998
KLAIPEDA	118	55.7000008	21.1333332	216	1996
KWAJALEIN	513	8.7316666	167.7350006	135	1997
ACAPULCO	686	16.8333321	-99.9166641	132	1982
YAP-B	1251	9.5166674	138.1333313	205	1997
DELFZIJL	24	53.3263893	6.9330559	147	1877
HARLINGEN	25	53.1755562	5.4094439	148	1996
DEN-HELDER	23	52.9644432	4.7449999	134	1866
MAASSLUIS	9	51.9174995	4.2497220	131	1866
VLISSINGEN	20	51.4422226	3.5961111	145	1903
WHANGAREI-HARBOUR-MARSDEN-POINT	1065	-35.7574310	174.3500366	130	1992
HONNINGSVAG	1267	70.9803162	25.9726963	145	1975
ANDENES	425	69.3260651	16.1348476	138	1952
NARVIK	312	68.4282837	17.4257584	154	1984
KABELVAG	45	68.2126389	14.4821491	158	1961
BODO	562	67.2882919	14.3908129	164	1984
ALESUND	509	62.4694138	6.1519461	169	1961
BERGEN	58	60.3980446	5.3204870	166	1920
OSLO	62	59.9085579	10.7345104	166	1984
OSCARSBORG	33	59.6780739	10.6048613	155	2011
KARACHI	204	24.8116665	66.9749985	130	1979
MALAKAL-B	1252	7.3333330	134.4666595	249	1998
BALBOA	163	8.9666672	-79.5666656	132	1989
MANILA-S-HARBOR	145	14.5833330	120.9666672	148	2008
MURMANSK	684	68.9666672	33.0499992	134	1989
UST-KARA	600	69.2500000	64.5166702	171	2013
VISE-VISE-OSTROV	704	79.5000000	76.9833298	175	1991
DIKSON	611	73.5000000	80.4000015	273	1990
SOPOCHNAIA-KARGA	917	71.8666687	82.6999969	191	1967
IZVESTIA-TSIK-IZVESTIA-TSIK-OSTROVA	728	75.9499969	82.9499969	203	1975
STERLEGOVA-STERLEGOVA-MYS	612	75.4166641	88.9000015	225	1967
KOTELNYI-KOTELNYI-OSTROV	641	76.0000000	137.8666687	398	1995
SANNIKOVA-SANNIKOVA-PROLIV	602	74.6666641	138.8999939	186	1997
KIGILIAH	642	73.3333359	139.8666687	164	1967
PEVEK	606	69.6999969	170.2500000	188	1967
TUAPSE	215	44.0999985	39.0666656	222	1922
NAGAEVO	827	59.5499992	150.7166595	188	2005
SANTANDER-I	485	43.4612999	-3.7908001	149	1947
LA-CORUNA-I	484	43.3685989	-8.3977499	138	1956
KUNGSVIK	2113	58.9966660	11.1272221	132	2011
SMOGEN	179	58.3536110	11.2177782	173	1992
STENUNGSUND	2112	58.0933342	11.8325005	130	1996
KLAGSHAMN	330	55.5222206	12.8936110	274	1991
SIMRISHAMN	2107	55.5574989	14.3577776	150	1996
KUNGSHOLMSFORT	70	56.1052780	15.5894442	173	1952
OSKARSHAMN	2106	57.2750015	16.4780560	186	1996
OLANDS-NORRA-UDDE	69	57.3661118	17.0972214	165	1900
VISBY	2105	57.6391678	18.2844448	191	1996
MARVIKEN	2104	58.5536118	16.8372211	200	1996
STOCKHOLM	78	59.3241653	18.0816669	201	1996
FORSMARK	2103	60.4086113	18.2108326	210	1996
SPIKARNA	1211	62.3633347	17.5311108	216	1996
RATAN	88	63.9861107	20.8950005	231	1961
FURUOGRUND	203	64.9158325	21.2305565	233	1939
KALIX	2101	65.6969452	23.0961113	195	2011
KO-TAPHAO-NOI	446	7.8333330	98.4333344	294	1981
FORT-PHRACHULA-CHOMKLAO-POM-PHRACHUN	444	13.5500002	100.5833359	143	1967
HOLYHEAD	5	53.3139458	-4.6204438	158	1960
SAND-POINT-POPOF-IS-AK	1634	55.3366661	-160.5016632	129	1989
ANCHORAGE	1067	61.2383347	-149.8899994	131	1968
SELDOVIA	1070	59.4399986	-151.7200012	142	1989
SEWARD	266	60.1199989	-149.4266663	130	1989
SKAGWAY	495	59.4500008	-135.3266602	130	1989
ASTORIA-TONGUE-POINT	265	46.2066689	-123.7683334	143	1948
CRESCENT-CITY	378	41.7449989	-124.1816635	135	1984
SAN-FRANCISCO	10	37.8066673	-122.4649963	146	1984
ALAMEDA-NAVAL-AIR-STATION	437	37.7716675	-122.2983322	149	1984
GALVESTON-II-PIER-21-TX	161	29.3099995	-94.7933350	148	1976
WASHINGTON-DC	360	38.8733330	-77.0216675	153	1996

(Questionable "Scientific" Papers). Those seesaw changes are both up and down, and therefore cannot be caused solely by expansion because some are contractions at the exact same spot where an expansion took place just the year before.

It is time to realize that gravity, rotation, axial relocation, and relocation of ice sheets by geophysical dynamics are the main players (ice sheets are shape-shifters which melt to become oceans, and they take the ice-mass-gravity with them).

VI. Question Propagandized Climate Narratives

I have been looking into the historical foundation for notions such as "El Niño," "La Nina," and "The Polar Vortex."

I am doing so because I think many aspects of current civilization's development of explanations is wrong headed.

The home work was not done, and the nomenclature that has been developed as a result of such neglect is not trustworthy (e.g. False Climate Change Meme Infects The President, 2).

Oil-Qaeda has been working on our minds for a long time, so we should revisit all of the "did climate change cause this one catastrophe" tricks (e.g. "No Single Weather Event Can Be Linked Directly To Global Warming", "Why Hurricane Patricia Can't Be Blamed On Climate Change", "Any Global Warming Over The Past Few Decades Can Be Explained by El Niño Activity").

They are trying harder than ever to kill us off (The Private Empire's Social Media Hit Squads, 2).

VII. Conclusion