Monday, April 17, 2017

The Evolution of Models - 21

Fig. 1 Euro model vs. US model
The world's best weather forecasting model is not a production, it is European software (Fig. 1).

Fig. 2 Arctic Sea-ice extent
Global-warming-induced climate change deniers think that weather forecast models are "climate porn" (Pole Dancing In The Lab).

Fig. 3 NSIDC Arctic 15% graph
Nevertheless, that may all change because the denialist government is not shutting down development of an improved model.

They are shutting down the State Department, Environmental Protection Agency, and other agencies that help Americans.

They are doing so while beefing up militarism, propaganda, and hate mongering (When You Are Governed By Psychopaths - 7).

But, they are allowing a development team to proceed with upgrades (Lin Development Team).

The decision to allow that development to proceed may result in a forecast model that can compete with or outperform the European model (Take that, Europe. Computer modeler aims to give U.S. lead in weather predictions).

Who knows, the denier powers that be may also allow funding for improving sea-level models to go forward.

Not all of them deny climate change, they just say it is not caused by their political-career sponsors (Humble Oil-Qaeda).

One wonders if the U.S. model technical improvements will spill over into ice sheet, ice-shelf, and general sea-ice extent forecasts.

The graph at Fig. 2 is generated from the latest NSIDC data in the Arctic dataset, and is a bit different when compared to the NSIDC "15% coverage" graph shown at Fig. 3.

I am working on some ideas for a sea-ice extent projection model that tries to anticipate the future of the sea-ice extent in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

I hope to be able to show some beta runs later this week.

The previous post in this series is here.

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