Tuesday, January 19, 2016

The Question Is: How Much Acceleration Is Involved In SLR - 9?

Fig. 1 The acceleration fingerprint
The world's oceans absorbed approximately 150 zettajoules of energy from 1865 to 1997, and then absorbed about another 150 in the next 18 years, according to a study published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change.

So, today let's continue to ask the critical question considered in this series (The Question Is: How Much Acceleration Is Involved In SLR?, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).

First, some detail from yesterday's paper:
"So since 1997, Earth's oceans have absorbed man-made heat energy equivalent to a Hiroshima-style bomb being exploded every second for 75 straight years."

"But the study's authors and outside experts say it's not the raw numbers that bother them. It's how fast those numbers are increasing.

"After 2000 in particular the rate of change [acceleration] is really starting to ramp up," Durack said.

Fig. 2 Acceleration in the Zone
This means the amount of energy being trapped in Earth's climate system as a whole is accelerating, the study's lead author Peter Gleckler, a climate scientist at Lawrence Livermore, said."

Fig. 3 Same fingerprint in the Zone

“Given the importance of the ocean warming signal for understanding our changing climate, it is high time to measure the global ocean systematically from the surface to the ocean floor,” said NOAA oceanographer Gregory Johnson.
(emphasis added; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Industrial-era global ocean heat uptake doubles in recent decadesStudy: Man-Made Heat In Oceans Is Surging, Has Doubled Since 1997). This is serious acceleration that makes the above quote "it is high time to measure" a gross understatement.

This answers the question, which some may have had in their mind, as to why the Dredd Blog software model shows acceleration of the danger to the following seaports in the following zones:
Zone: AL.SW.SW, ports: 6,
[Shanghai, CN]
[Busan, KR]
[Qingdao Gang, CN]
[Taicang, CN]
[Gwangyang Hang, KR]
[Incheon, KR]
stations: 47

Zone: AQ.SE.SW, ports: 3,
[Keppel - (East Singapore), SG]
[Port Klang, MY]
[Tanjung Pelepas, MY]
stations: 7

Zone: AQ.NE.NE, ports: 7,
[Shenzhen, CN]
[Guangzhou, CN]
[Xiamen, CN]
[Fuzhou, CN]
[Dongguan, CN]
[Zhongshan, CN]
[Shantou, CN]
stations: 0

Zone: AQ.NE.SE, ports: 1,
[Hong Kong, HK]
stations: 3

Zone: AR.NW.NW, ports: 4,
[Ningbo, CN]
[Kaohsiung, TW]
[Keelung, TW]
[Taichung, TW]
stations: 5

Zone: AP.NE.NE, ports: 4,
[Jebel Ali, AE]
[Khor Fakkan, AE]
[Bandar-E Shahid Reajie, IR]
[Dammam, SA]
stations: 0

Zone: AK.SE.NE, ports: 1,
[Tianjin Xin Gang, CN]
stations: 0

Zone: AJ.NW.SW, ports: 5,
[Rotterdam, NL]
[Antwerpen, BE]
[Felixstowe, GB]
[Port of Le Havre, FR]
[Bruges, BE]
stations: 16

Zone: AL.SW.NW, ports: 4,
[Dalian, CN]
[Yingkou, CN]
[Yantai, CN]
[Dandong, CN]
stations: 3

Zone: AJ.NW.NW, ports: 2,
[Hamburg, DE]
[Bremen, DE]
stations: 37

Zone: AH.SW.SW, ports: 2,
[Los Angeles, US]
[Long Beach, US]
stations: 5

Zone: AW.NE.NE, ports: 2,
[Tanjung Priok, ID]
[Surabaya, ID]
stations: 0

Zone: AQ.SE.NW, ports: 2,
[Laem Chabang, TH]
[Bangkok, TH]
stations: 3

Zone: AQ.SE.NE, ports: 1,
[Ho Chi Minh City (Saigon), VN]
stations: 0

Zone: AK.SE.SE, ports: 3,
[Lianyungang, CN]
[Nanjing, CN]
[Rizhao, CN]
stations: 0

Zone: AH.SE.NE, ports: 1,
[New York City, US]
stations: 17

Zone: AL.SW.SE, ports: 5,
[Tokyo Ko, JP]
[Yokohama Ko, JP]
[Nagoya Ko, JP]
[Kobe, JP]
[Osaka, JP]
stations: 33

Zone: AP.NE.SW, ports: 1,
[Jeddah, SA]
stations: 0

Zone: AI.SE.SE, ports: 2,
[Algeciras, ES]
[Tanger, MA]
stations: 5

Zone: AI.SE.NE, ports: 2,
[Valencia, ES]
[Cartagena, ES]
stations: 4

Zone: AQ.SW.SE, ports: 1,
[Colombo, LK]
stations: 0

Zone: AQ.NW.SW, ports: 1,
[Mumbai (Bombay), IN]
stations: 0

Zone: AJ.SE.SW, ports: 3,
[Bur Said (Port Said), EG]
[Mersin, TR]
[Haifa, IL]
stations: 0

Zone: AR.SW.NW, ports: 1,
[Manila, PH]
stations: 2

Zone: AU.SW.SW, ports: 1,
[Santos, BR]
stations: 0

Zone: AJ.SW.NE, ports: 3,
[Ambarli, TR]
[Piraeus, GR]
[Gioia Tauro, IT]
stations: 11

Zone: A0.NW.NW, ports: 2,
[Colón, AR]
[Buenos Aires, AR]
stations: 2

Zone: AP.NE.SE, ports: 1,
[Salalah, OM]
stations: 0

Zone: AN.SE.NW, ports: 1,
[Balboa, PA]
stations: 1

Zone: AH.SE.SW, ports: 2,
[Savannah, US]
[Charleston, US]
stations: 12

Zone: AG.NE.SE, ports: 3,
[Vancouver, CA]
[Tacoma, US]
[Seattle, US]
stations: 17

Zone: AJ.SW.SW, ports: 1,
[Malta Freeport, MT]
stations: 0

Zone: AV.SE.SW, ports: 1,
[Durban, ZA]
stations: 2

Zone: AN.NE.NW, ports: 2,
[St Petersburg, US]
[Freeport, BS]
stations: 7

Zone: A3.NW.SE, ports: 1,
[Melbourne, AU]
stations: 0

Zone: AQ.NW.NW, ports: 2,
[Mundra, IN]
[Karachi, PK]
stations: 1

Zone: AG.SE.NE, ports: 1,
[Oakland, US]
stations: 9

Zone: AK.SW.SE, ports: 1,
[Virginia, US]
stations: 0

Zone: A3.NE.NW, ports: 1,
[Sydney, AU]
stations: 2

Zone: AN.NW.SE, ports: 1,
[Manzanillo, MX]
stations: 1

Zone: AJ.SW.NW, ports: 3,
[Genoa, IT]
[Barcelona, ES]
[La Spezia, IT]
stations: 4

Zone: AN.NW.NE, ports: 1,
[Houston, US]
stations: 3

Zone: AT.NE.SW, ports: 1,
[Puerto del Callao, PE]
stations: 0

Zone: AX.SE.SE, ports: 1,
[Kingston, NF]
stations: 0

Zone: AQ.NE.SW, ports: 1,
[Chittagong, BD]
stations: 0

Zone: AT.NE.NW, ports: 1,
[Guayaquil, EC]
stations: 0

Zone: AH.SE.NW, ports: 1,
[Alexandria, US]
stations: 8

Zone: AI.NE.SE, ports: 1,
[Southampton, GB]
stations: 12

Zone: AQ.SW.NE, ports: 1,
[Chennai (Madras), IN]
stations: 0

Zone: AH.NE.SE, ports: 1,
[Montreal, CA]
stations: 17
The zones listed above contain the top 100 seaports of the world.

The sea level change (SLC) taking place within them  has been shown by lots of previous Dredd Blog graphs.

SLC is endangering these seaports (The Evolution of Models - 19).

Which in turn endangers current "International Trade Civilization" (which evolved from "Industrial Civilization").

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.


  1. Dr. Hawking "We’re About To Wipe Ourselves Out" (link)

  2. geez, Randy, he's startin' a soun' lock Guy McPherson!


    1. Tom,

      Very telling indeed.

      Other scientists somehow noticed the trend very early on too:

      One would say that [man] is destined to exterminate himself after having rendered the globe uninhabitable.” - Lamarck (1817)

      The end of the human race will be that it will eventually die of civilization.” - Ralph Waldo Emerson

      "Mayr, from the point of view of a biologist, argued that it's very unlikely that we'll find any [extraterrestrial intelligence]. And his reason was, he said, we have exactly one example: Earth. So let's take a look at Earth. And what he basically argued is that intelligence is a kind of lethal mutation ... you're just not going to find intelligent life elsewhere, and you probably won't find it here for very long either because it's just a lethal mutation." - Dr. Noam Chomsky paraphrasing Dr. Ernst Mayr

      "In other words, a society does not ever die 'from natural causes', but always dies from suicide or murder --- and nearly always from the former, as this chapter has shown." - A Study of History, by Arnold J. Toynbee

      (from Dredd Blog quotes tab/page

  3. And the SLF(fall) may prove to be a Pos feedback loop; especially around the big ice shelves. As they melt, they become more vulnerable to the now 'falling' tides and as buoyancy (protection) from the surrounding seawater is diminished, the stress on the adjacent ice increases to amplify the calving process.


    1. Mark,

      Excellent link.

      I noticed a spot on quote in it: " ... glaciologist Richard Alley said. 'What happens to the beach, what happens to our shipping, what happens to our naval base? ... ”

  4. Many thanks Dredd! Its an honour to be permitted into your lab to observe what's happening. Happy to sweep up, scrub the blackboards and clean the beakers if required! And in the spirit of Good Will Hunting, I'll chance an 'input' but only after convincing myself it has real value.

    Adding the early (prescient) scientists from above.. Here's Rachel Carson's opening reference to Albert Schweitzer's quote in her terrific book, Silent Spring ( publ. 1962)

    " Man has lost the ability to foresee and forestall. He will end by destroying the earth."