Tuesday, September 29, 2015

New Type of SLC Detection Model - 5

Fig. 1 East Coast Group - Northern
Well, the software model is working, and I have the first victim group identified.

It is called the "East Coast Group."

It is currently composed of: Atlantic City, Baltimore, Boston, Cape May, Charleston I, Chesapeake Bay, Halifax, New York (The Battery), and New York (Montauk), however, if and when necessary more can be added.

The graphs generated with the new model are included in today's post.
Fig. 2

There is no "smoothing" of data, since it is better just to be totally real, leaving out the few unknown quantities, which are marked in the data as "-9999".

The projection or prediction is added onto the last year of history, continuing with either sea level fall (SLF) or sea level rise (SLR), depending on how the logic identifies the flow of data.

Fig. 3
Some tide gauge stations are close to being both SLF and SLR, so some may be analyzed incorrectly at first, but I haven't noticed any yet.

We can now move on to additional groups, one for sure will be the "West Coast Group," which will be composed of tide gauge stations from Glacier Bay, AK down to San Diego, CA.

That one is cool because it has both SLF and SLR areas to analyze and then graph out.

Anyway, the transition from history to future projection is quite seamless and more readable that way, at least in the sense of "it looks real."
Fig. 4

Let me relax anyone who notices that the SLR values are low compared to previous ones ("that is so IPCC Dredd").

That is because I have not added the acceleration logic, which takes a lot of additional factors into consideration.

At this stage the continuum is based on the plain historical acceleration without anticipating surges, doubling, and the like.

That is coming.

Fig. 5
One thing that is interesting in the current code used to generate graphing data, is that it gives rise to the hypothesis that the jaggedness is caused by offsetting influences of Greenland vs. Antarctica.

They are not in sync by some magic ice melting manager, so they melt and calve ice bergs randomly.

Thus, there is no smooth record, like a smooth ski-slope pattern, for us to ponder.

We are watching real-world history, real-Earth events, that have and will continue to take place over a long period of time.

Fig. 6
The projection looks more realistic than the old ski-slope smooth graphs that the Dredd Blog software model did in past projection graphs.

I cloned the pattern in the history by first recording the changes in increase and decrease, then I carried that "DNA" into the projection stream, but increasing it or decreasing it along the lines of the historical continuum.

Fig. 7
The pattern on the east coast of the U.S.eh? is unmistakeable, and as regular readers know, the pattern is in the direction of big trouble.

The east coast is known to be one of the top spots for SLR on the planet.

That is just the way it is, so the cards that have been dealt to those American victims by Oil-Qaeda, the dealer, do not a winning hand make (read Dredd Blog posts on the Series Post Tab, under "Sea Level Change").
Fig. 8

Another feature that needs to be added for some of the stations near SLF zones such as Glacier Bay, Greenland, and Antarctica, is a switch to SLF from SLR.

Halifax (Fig. 1) is an example that is likely to have a change from SLR to SLF mode (or a levelling out) as the "hinge" around Greenland expands outward as Greenland loses gravity due to losing ice sheet mass (The Gravity of Sea Level Change).

Fig. 9
Halifax is an SLR station today, but the hinge is approaching it and it will begin to see SLF sometime in the future.

BTW, if you want to estimate the SLR quantity in feet, divide the RLR millimeter value by 304.8 (304.8mm = 1ft.).

For example, sea level at New York / The Battery (Fig. 5) rose from 6698mm in 1856 to 7144 at the end of 2014 (7144 − 6698 = 446; 446 ÷ 304.8 = 1.5 ft.).

Anyway, this post is long enough, so let me close for today.

You have been introduced to tide gauge stations along the east coast, the East Coast Group, which Dredd Blog will continue to monitor from time to time.

For example, updating databases and graphs when the "future months of 2015" end to become the history year 2015.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.


  1. Hey Dredd. Am paying attention and appreciating the development. Just wanted to let you know I've sent a detailed invitation to Mr CSIRO to stop by here and help if possible. No response received to date but I am still hopeful.
    No need to publish this 'update'--but your call.

  2. Ah Ka-maan, ya GOTTA trow Philly in 'air! Great stuff, Dredd!