Tuesday, October 6, 2015

New Type of SLC Detection Model - 7

In a previous post of this series I took a look at "the east coast group" (New Type of SLC Detection Model - 5).

Those graphs were done when the new software model was using the IPCC outlook for "3ft. of sea level rise (SLR) by the year 2100."

Today, I want to use that same group to show how the SLR looks under the "20-year-doubling" projection.

That is half of what Dr. James Hansen used when he mentioned the issue in a recent paper:
One of the nation's most recognizable names in climate science, Dr. James Hansen, released a new paper this week warning that even 2 degrees
Celsius of global warming may be "highly dangerous" for humanity.

The paper, which will be published online in the European Geosciences Union journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussion later this week, projects sea levels rising as much as 10 feet in the next 50 years.
(Former Top NASA Scientist Predicts Catastrophic Rise In Sea Levels). You can read more about the various degrees of "doubling" here.

I am following the same sequence of graphs in today's post, so it will be easier to compare the differences should you choose to do so.

What I like best about this configuration is that, as planned, it is a continuous flow of history with the future projection taking that into consideration.

Previous models only did the future without consideration of the past in terms of
capturing the nature of the history of a particular tide gauge station, then including that nature in the future projection.

I put a red dot at the intersection where history ends and the future begins, and I changed the sea level from millimeters to meters.

One take home from this freedom gained, by no longer using the fabled "global mean average" scenarios, is that each station has its own characteristics.

Which is better than all of them being ground up into the sausage of "global allie samie average" IMO.

We saw how different sea level change (SLC) can be when we took a look at the West
Coast Group tide gauge stations, which have both sea level fall (SLF) and SLR (Proof of Concept - 3).

I will do a post on that group again now that the model is doing "doubling" projections, and is closer than the IPCC model to the reality of future SLC on the east coast.

Another thing which I consider to be very important is the impact that 1 meter / ~3 feet of SLR will have on sea ports.

Not only that, the impact that SLF will have on sea ports has been discussed and it is shockingly significant (Peak Sea Level - 2).

That 1m / 3ft. SLC comes around when only 1.14% of the Earth's ice sheets melt (Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization - 3).

The song "In The Year 2525" sung by way too many establishment scientists takes our attention away from the looming crisis.

Anyway, if anyone comments to say "these graphs look very much alike Dredd" I will answer "that is because their history is similar."

Another thing to consider is that the millimeter to meter change smooths out a lot of the bumps.

But to be able to include all the historical years along with the future years, which include a "doubling" acceleration increase, those changes were necessary.

Another factor is that the tide gauge stations began keeping records at different times in the past, and since SLC has been changing since the industrial revolution began to change the chemistry of the atmosphere, oceans, and land, that is to be expected.

You can notice that they tend to be different in the sense of beginning at different sea levels when they begin their record keeping in different years and locations (see how the red dot moves about too).

Note that the historical data is exactly the same, only the future projection data is different.

The future data is different because the switch from the conservative IPCC 2100 model data to the 20-year-doubling model data is a significant change.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.


  1. It is better with the history in it, with the future depicted as a continuation.

  2. robert scribbler has put up a new post:


    We’re Gonna Need a Bigger Graph — Global Sea Level Rise Just Went off the Chart


  3. Also, this may have an influence on sea level change:

    Wednesday, 7 October 2015
    Arctic weather update - 10.06/2015
    Weather at the North Pole

    Forecast says a big blast of warm air being blown or should that be sucked into the Arctic. Maybe a sting in the tail


    [look at Greenland!]