Friday, April 29, 2011

All Weather Is Local - 2

In the first post of this series we used a similar graphic to show places around the globe that had warmed and cooled, even as the overall temperature warmed.

The trend continues as the climate in various places changes.

Yes, as the climate change denier propagandists demand the birth certificate of global warming, and as storms begin to change the script:
Violent tornadoes throughout the southeastern U.S. must be a front-page reminder that no matter how successful climate deniers are in confusing the public or delaying action on climate change in Congress or globally, the science is clear: Our climate is worsening.

More extreme and violent climate is a direct consequence of human-caused climate change (whether or not we can determine if these particular tornado outbreaks were caused or worsened by climate change). There is a reason it isn't called global warming anymore. Higher temperatures are only one -- and not the most worrisome -- of the consequences of a changing climate.

Climate science tells us unambiguously that we are changing the climate and trapping more energy on the planet. Trapping more energy will cause more extreme events and worsen extreme events that would otherwise happen.
(Peter H. Gleick, emphasis added). The fact that neither scientists nor deniers can point to the specific local cause of tornado outbreaks in a particular case does not mean there are no other methods available for determining the prime suspect cause.

The better detective in a criminal case does not give up if there isn't an absolute clue that makes it easy, only the lazy detective does that.

Using the principle of Occam's Razor, the burden shifts to the deniers, because the evidence of global warming is convincing to reasonable people, people who have to put their money where their mouth is, those insurance companies who must know if they are to insure property and lives and stay in business at the same time:
There are at present insufficient data on many weather risks and regions to permit statistically backed assertions regarding the link with climate change. However, there is evidence that, as a result of warming, events associated with severe windstorms, such as thunderstorms, hail and cloudbursts, have become more frequent in parts of the USA, southwest Germany and other regions. The number of very severe tropical cyclones is also increasing. One direct result of warming is an increase in heat waves such as that experienced in Russia this summer. There are also indications of a higher incidence of atmospheric conditions causing air mass formation on the north side of the Alps and low-lying mountain ranges, a phenomenon which can result in floods. Heavy rain and flash floods are affecting not only people living close to rivers but also those who live well away from traditionally flood-prone areas. Although climate change can no longer be halted, even with the help of very ambitious schemes, it can still be curbed.
(Munich Re, emphasis added). I watched the warnings on the Weather Channel saying that there was a TOR:CON 100% chance of severe tornadoes in Alabama the day before, and on the day that actually happened.

They did not list which specific houses or even which specific towns would be hit, but they did say everyone should prepare, because the climate scientists were "expecting all hell to break loose" (Things Have Changed, Dylan).

The foolish deniers are like the guy who says "well if they can't tell me whether or not my house is going to be hit, I am not going to prepare".

There are more people like that than you would believe, and some of them, their pets, and their families are in the morgue today, because of the propaganda induced ignorance they loved to cling to.

If we "follow the money", that is, if we watch the insurance companies who have to know this stuff in order to survive, we can be sure that there will be more in short order.

Here is the history of a record "windy" April, 2011:
April 4-5: Massive wind damage

April 9: Iowa supercells

April 10: "Northwoods" tornadoes

April 14: Day 1 of three-day siege

April 15: Dixie Alley nightmare

April 16: Carolinas, Virginia crushed

April 19-20: Midwest, South outbreak

April 22: St. Louis tornado

April 25: Arkansas ambush

April 26: Deja Vu

April 27: Southeast Devastation
(Weather Channel). All the totals are not in since today is still in April ... will try to update when the full picture takes focus.

Also in April, floods are threatening Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Kentucky, which will continue on into other states as well in May.

April of 2011 ended up being the all time record month for tornadoes, with a total of 679. The old record was 543 in May of 2003. The old record did not hold long, and it remains to be seen how long the new record will hold.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

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