Wednesday, May 24, 2017

On The Origin of Ghost Heat & Temperature - 2

Fig. 1 "Say it ain't so Joe"
I have incorporated the aforementioned TEOS-10 library into my repertoire of software modules (Terrarists - 2).

I am impressed with it to the point of considering it to be a permanent fixture in the Dredd Blog toolbox.

As far as I am concerned, in terms of quality scientific endeavors, it is on par with the World Ocean Database (WOD) and the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL).

The four-panel graph @ Fig. 1 shows TEOS-10 at work with WOD and PSMSL (hey, don't forget me too folks).

Panel One (upper left) of that graph is generated using GISS surface data (1880-2016); Panel Two (upper right) is generated using PSMSL tide gauge station data (Databases Galore - 19); Panel Three (lower left) is generated using WOD (CTD, PFL) data from all WOD zones with measurements at all ocean depths; and Panel Four (lower right) is generated using the TEOS-10 library while processing the aforesaid WOD datasets.

Fig. 2 Originally posted here
Why sea level is rising (Fig. 1, Panel Two) in a pattern that matches very closely to the surface temperature (Fig. 1, Panel One) pattern (while at the same time the ocean temperature and thermal expansion-contraction patterns do not) is what this Dredd Blog series is about.

The gist of it is that confusing ocean "heat content" with the ocean "surface" temperature (e.g. 0-750 m) is not robust research:
"According to the paper, arguably, the most appropriate single variable in Earth's system that can be used to monitor global warming is ocean heat content integrated from the surface to different layers and to the bottom of the ocean."
(Oceans act as a 'heat sink': No global warming ‘hiatus’, emphasis added). Skimming the surface while avoiding 90% of the global heat sink is Agnotology in action (Agnotology: The Surge, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19) if not Smoke & Fumes in action.

Anyway, the improvement  brought by TEOS-10 is limited to the thermal expansion-contraction variable "thermal expansion coefficient" (see "gsw_alpha" here).

Previously, before TEOS-10, I had only a few coefficients  to use (see link @ Fig. 2), so I had to choose the closest one in any particular case.

Now, I generate them (using the TEOS-10 function "gsw_alpha") on the fly from exact salinity and temperature measurements, and the result is more precise (even though the pattern is very similar - see here).

The next step that I am now working on, is to take the thermal contraction back to 1880 to match the GISS surface temperature dates and the PSMSL sea level dates.

Stay tuned.

The previous post in this series is here.

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