Friday, January 15, 2016

The Evolution of Models - 19

Fig. 1 Zone in for a change
Big winds and waves have hit Greenland recently (Warm Arctic Storm To Hurl Hurricane Force Winds at UK and Iceland, Push Temps to 36-72+ Degrees (F) Above Normal at North Pole).

The high waves and strong winds brought by these anomalous storms can weaken the ice shelves which hold back the ice sheet's hundreds of kilometers long ice streams (Watch The Ice Shelves, 2).

Fig. 2 #11, #16
Another storm is slated to impact Greenland again for the second time in a short while (Hurricane Alex).

This increases sea level change (SLC) which endangers the world's seaports.

So, today's post covers the world's top seaports again (@ #11 - #20), focusing on container ship seaports, which carry the cargo of the world (Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 44).

Fig. 3 #11, #16
A recent post covered the top ten seaports (Proxymetry3 - 3).

I added today's ten seaports because the US made the list at #18.

Yes, the busiest US seaport is number 18 in the world of container ship economy, which, depending on who you ask, is 80 - 95% of the world's international trade.

Fig. 4 #12
As you can see by these graphs, which are like the graphs showing the top ten seaports, these ports are also threatened with extinction (The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports, 2).

Fig. 5 #12
Sea level rise (SLR) and sea level fall (SLF) will continue for quite a while after civilization stops pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

So, this is in some ways like planning public works projects, which takes years to decades of preparation.
Fig. 6 #13

Fig. 7 #13
Seaport work (dredging or relocating in cases of sea level fall (SLF), and relocating in cases of sea level rise (SLR) which is too high for repair) normally takes years and decades of planning.

But, in reacting to SLC there is the problem of the sea level not waiting till the work is done before rising again (Groundhog Day & The Climate of Fear, Will This Float Your Boat - 9).
Fig. 8 #14

Fig. 9 #14
Thus, we can deduce that it is not likely to be the kind of project that meets with success.

To the degree projects are where the ground, or in this case the sea, is moving under one's feet each day, is the degree to which success is illusive.
Fig. 10 #15

Fig. 11 #15
Add to that the fact that every seaport on the planet faces this threat, and we can deduce that there are not enough contractors to do that many projects at once.

And when they finish, after a decade of work, the sea level will have changed.

So, "hi ho hi ho its off to work" they go, doing the same thing over and over again like in the Groundhog Day movie.

This is no comedy, however, so the serious predicament will become the news of the day whether the presstitutes come out of their fog or not (In the Fog of The Presstitutes, 2, 3, 4).

And what, prey tell, will be the news about the presstitutes in terms of what they covered up?

That much is clear.

They keep telling you about polar bears and the like because they know "you" really do not give a shit about "duh environment" because "you" have been fornicated into the "we are us, they are them" trance.

The us vs them trance that is a big money maker for the warmongers (Choose Your Trances Carefully, 2, 3, 4, 5).

A pitiful trance, because once infected by it one becomes aloof to the real dangers involved:
Climate model projections are often aggregated into multi-model averages of all models participating in an intercomparison project, such as the Coupled
Fig. 12  #18
Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The "multi-model" approach provides a sensitivity test to the models' structural choices and implicitly assumes that multiple models provide additional and more reliable information than a single model, with higher confidence being placed on results that are common to an ensemble. A first initiative of the ice sheet modeling community, SeaRISE, provided such multi-model average projections of polar ice sheets' contribution to sea-level rise. The SeaRISE Antarctic numerical experiments aggregated results from all models devoid of a priori selection, based on the capacity of such models to represent key ice-dynamical processes. Here, using the experimental setup proposed in SeaRISE, we demonstrate that correctly representing grounding line dynamics is essential to infer future Antarctic mass change. We further illustrate the significant impact on the ensemble
Fig. 13  #18
mean and deviation of adding one model with a known bias in its ability of modeling grounding line dynamics. We show that this biased model can hardly be identified from the ensemble only based on its estimation of volume change, as ad hoc and untrustworthy parametrizations can force any modeled grounding line to retreat. However, tools are available to test parts of the response of marine ice sheet models to perturbations of climatic and/or oceanic origin (MISMIP, MISMIP3d). Based on recent projections of Pine Island Glacier mass loss, we further show that excluding ice sheet models that do not pass the MISMIP benchmarks decreases the mean contribution and standard deviation of the multi-model ensemble projection by an order of magnitude for that particular drainage basin.
(The Cryosphere, emphasis added). Like Dr. James Hansen said, the scientific community is cow-towed by various management pressures.

One pressure is to not stampede the crowd (so management does not get trampled).

Software engineers must not leave their common sense at home, nor get their noses too close to the grindstone (The Gravity of Sea Level Change - 3, 4).

The ice sheets and ice shelves do not listen to, nor have any interest in, managers who feel pressure from funding sources.

Which is like the Dredd Blog SLC model.

In this morning's trial print out it wrote "you better eat your Wheaties !"

The major 100 seaports are doomed (Dredd Blog's Seventh Anniversary).

The next post in this series is here, previous post in this series is here.

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