Tuesday, December 29, 2015

On The Origin of Tornadoes - 7

Fig. 1 Tornado trend was up
Somewhere in the previous posts of this series I indicated that it was likely IMO that the number of tornadoes would go down as the Polar Vortex disintegrated (On The Origin of Tornadoes, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).

In the most recent post of this series I noted that 2014 was continuing a downward count trend (compare Fig. 1 with Fig. 2).

The hypothesis I offered was that when the Polar Vortex completely bit the dust then tornado counts would go up again, because the impediment caused by the disintegrating vortex would fade away eventually (On The Origin of Tornadoes - 6).

A post on another blog paints a picture of a Polar Vortex in trouble, to the point of allowing
Fig.2 Tornado Trend Is Down
historically warm intrusions to penetrate through the vortex (Warm Arctic Storm To Hurl Hurricane Force Winds at UK and Iceland, Push Temps to 36-72+ Degrees (F) Above Normal at North Pole).

That same storm was creating tornadoes in the tornado alley area: "The vigorous low pressure system that helped spawn devastating tornadoes in the Dallas area on Saturday is forecast to explode into a monstrous storm over Iceland by Wednesday." (Washington Post)

These types of intrusions, along with the disintegration of the Arctic sea ice, will eventually allow the unique set-up favoring U.S. tornadoes to be restored.

Along with that scenario, it is also likely for more damaging tornadoes to show up as the tornado count goes back up again (On The Origin of Tornadoes - 5).

Change means "not the same" as before, but we only know that the stage is also being set for increasing damage to the already Damaged Global Climate System (The Damaged Global Climate System, 2, 3, 4).

The way things are going in the Arctic, in the next year or so we may see the number of tornadoes going back up.

The previous post in this series is here.

2 comments:

  1. How wild that the tornadoes in Texas were caused by the same storm that is bringing 50-70 degree warming to the North Pole that can be -20 to -40 F below zero this time of year.

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  2. And how wild that the Mississippi is going to flood like it did when the Army bombed the levies a few years back. (link)

    They did it (flooding good farm land) to stop flooding downstream.

    The next year or so it was so low they had to dredge it out because barge traffic could not get through.

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