Thursday, December 31, 2015

The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports - 2

Fig. 1 Largest Cargo Ship
I. Background

When I write about endangered infrastructure going extinct it rankles those who like to hear about endangered species (The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports).

It does not bother them that living things die as much as it bothers them that non-living things they have built are going to be destroyed.
Fig. 2 Endangered Ports - Iceland

Fig. 3 Endangered Ports - Australia
Some of their retorts are of this sort: "no one knows the future so stuff it."
Fig. 4 Endangered Ports - Greenland

Then they turn around and tell me the future by saying "these ports will be fine forever because we can adapt.'

Those tricksters are in effect claiming to be the only ones who know the future.

They intend for us to swallow the notion that their version of the future can be known by them, but no one else can know the future.

So, when you hear "no one knows the future" remember that they are actually saying "no one knows the future except us."

Like all of their other imperialistic cognition, they want to invade and capture all concepts of the future (along with everything else).

The way they do this is by ignoring the abundant evidence suggesting their unavoidable demise.

II. The Basis of Future Projections

The scientific way to project the future is to create evidence by analyzing previous behavioral events along with the results and consequences of that behavior.

Next in the process is to deduce that behavior "x" produced results "y" ... therefore, the future manifestation of behavior "x" will also produce results "y".

As a matter of fact, the inverse of that (doing the same thing expecting different results) is a known pattern of insanity ("Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." - Albert Einstein).

So, there is the evidence based view of the future, and there is the fictional, wishful thinking view of the future.

The basis I use is: if you do "x" behavior a week from now it will produce "y" results just like it did a week ago.

Their approach is no one knows the future, so you don't really know that doing "x" next week will produce "y" results.

III. Why Robust Seaports Will Become Extinct

Sea level rise is anomalous in this the Anthropocene, as shown in Dr. Mitrovica's presentation, the first video below.

Sea level was stable in the Late Holocene:
We present estimates for late Holocene relative sea level change along the Tyrrhenian coast of Italy based on morphological characteristics of eight submerged Roman fish tanks (piscinae) constructed between the 1st century B.C. and the 2nd century A.D. Underwater geomorphological features and archaeological remains related to past sea level have been measured and corrected using recorded tidal values. We conclude that local sea level during the Roman period did not exceed 58 ± 5 cm below the present sea level. These results broadly agree with previous observations in the region but contrast with recent analysis that suggests a significantly larger sea level rise during the last 2000 years. Using a glacial isostatic adjustment model, we explain how regional sea level change departs from the eustatic component. Our calculation of relative sea level during the Roman period provides a reference for isolating the long-wavelength contribution to sea level change from secular sea level rise. Precise determination of sea level rise in the study area improves our understanding of secular, instrumentally observed, variations across the Mediterranean.
(Late Holocene Sea Level, Evelpidou, Pirazzoli, Vassilopoulos, Spada, Ruggieri, and Tomasin (2012), emphasis added; cf. Sea Level in Roman Times, PDF).  The second video below (Admiral David Tilley) alludes to the importance of sea level to sea ports (cf. Has The Navy Fallen For The Greatest Hoax?).

In Roman times, the fish were collected by the 1% in structures made of concrete and/or stone so as to keep live fish collected for their meals.

Those structures were constructed exactly at sea level so that at high tide the water would be refreshed, but the fish could not swim out.

These structures are now under water, because sea level has risen.

More importantly in the context of today's post, the sea port infrastructure constructed at those sea levels (e.g. for Roman Galleons), are likewise under water for the same reason.

Those facilities and infrastructure are now extinct, like the Roman Colosseum.

IV. Conclusion

Sea ports today face the same fate as the Roman Infrastructure, because sea level change is accelerating at a rate that is beyond the ability of official public works processes to keep up with (see e.g. Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 44).

It is also now well known that at some sea ports the sea level will fall, while at other sea ports the sea level will rise (see e.g. Peak Sea Level - 2).

To top it off, the rise and fall will subsist and continue unabated for a century or more (Groundhog Day & The Climate of Fear).

Continuing behavior "x" (burning fossil fuels) will continue to cause result "y" (sea level change), and any belief to the contrary is insane (Will This Float Your Boat - 9).

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

Harvard Professor Mitrovica quote @05:50: "Sceptics say 2mm yr sea level rise is not anomalous ... this is by far the easiest to repudiate ... "

Admiral Titley (2010) quote @ ~04:50: "I have had senior level people come up to me and ask 'hey Titley, why does the Navy care about sea level rise?' ... its like, well we're the Navy and we tend to build our bases at sea level ... that's where you put ships.":

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