Tuesday, September 22, 2015

New Type of SLC Detection Model - 4

Fig. 1 Down to Three
In the final analysis the GeoZones "aa" - "br" were not the best way to set up the grid.

Too many squares (New Type of SLC Detection Model - 4).

It is down to 3 zones now.

They are: 1) "np" which is the North Polar Area, ("49th parallel" or Lat. 49 N. to the North Pole); 2) "sp" the South Polar Area (-60 deg. S. to the South Pole), and, 3) "eq" the area in between, with the Equator at about mid-point.
Fig. 2 SLC (SLR / SLF)

It also matches the three-zone concept of the scientists who fashioned them according to primary ice mass locations.

The graphs displayed below (Fig. 3 - Fig. 6) show one example of how they finger trends easier than the 38 smaller zones did.

The same number of stations are used in this concept as I was working with after culling and discontinuing irrelevant stations.

There are 151 stations in the "np" zone, 1 in the "sp" zone, and 337 in the "eq" zone (489 total).

I don't know if more tidal gauges can be used in the "sp" zone (look on Fig. 1 to find it ... int is basically ice-surrounded Antarctica).

The one gauge in that vast area is "ARGENTINE ISLANDS" at Lat. -65.2462311, Lon. -64.2574158.

Fig. 3 Lows and Highs
I discovered that, in the "np" zone the sea level fall (SLF) is taking place at certain latitudes

Notice on Fig. 3, that the low sea levels are between about 55 deg. N and 60. deg. N. latitude.

That is the area of Glacier Bay and the other Southeastern Alaska Range glaciers where there is a lot of land ice mass.

The bottom third of Fig. 2 shows that area to be the prime area for SLF as the glaciers and mountain ice flows into the Gulf of Mexico.
Fig. 4 Mean Lows and Highs

Thus we have a clear fingerprint, a clear indication that they are and have been very busy melting and calving for some time (Proof of Concept).

It is much easier to detect with the zones down to three, and those zones in sync with the only three SLF zones on the globe.

Fig. 5 Mean Average
Only the Arctic, Antarctica, and the Alaska area are expected to be centers of SLF.

All the others are sea level rise (SLR) areas in the normal sense of the dynamics of SLC.

Anyway,, Fig. 5  also has the same finger print, those low sea level points between about Lat. 55 N. and Lat. 60 N.

All of these graphs use the values of all of the 151 tidal stations in the "np" zone, and aggregate their values, so they all tell the same story.
Fig. 6 All 151 "np" stations

The busy Fig. 6 is all of the aggregated values placed on one graph.

It tells the same story about the SLF dynamics being in the same location, which is the Southeastern Alaska region, that contains, among other things, Glacier Bay National Park.

I am now going to tie in the future calculation logic, which was working with the 38 zones, but was not working well enough.

There was just too much mixing of different areas (e.g. Southern California was in the same zone as the East Coast).

Now, all the stations used for a particular purpose will be in the same zone and the zones do not have conflicting member stations now.

Longitude values can be used to group stations in the way they should be with latitude merely separating the major ice zones (Greenland, Antarctica) in polar regions.

Every zone now has all longitudes in it, the zone separation lines now being latitude values.

Zones have their distinct and unique latitudes, but all zones have all of the longitude values (San Diego can be excluded from East Coast computations via longitude now ... it was in zone "al" before as was the East Coast).

I will, hopefully, be able to write some about the future projection logic in a day or two.

If I can tie in the modules that do extensive calculations, rather that the SLC-Lite version, I will.

Thanks for stopping by.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.


  1. Things oughta start pickin' up real soon now:


    Sudden drainage, via massive chasm, of Subglacial lakes in Greenland described as catastrophic


    “If enough water is pouring down into the Greenland Ice Sheet for us to see the same sub-glacial lake empty and re-fill itself over and over, then there must be so much latent heat being released under the ice that we’d have to expect it to change the large-scale behavior of the ice sheet,” said Prof Michael Bevis of the Ohio State University, a co-author of the Nature paper.


    1. As you know I have been writing about that too for some time.

      The fingerprints for that are SLF around Greenland, SLR on the East Coast.

      Good link.

      Glad they are picking up on it.

      There have been some surges which they don't get (Will This Float Your Boat - 5).

      And drops in sea level as shown in this post which they also don't get.

  2. Fascinating to be looking over your shoulder 'in the lab', Dredd! Attended the U of MN and when the top of Miss did freeze, it was always astonishing to observe how fast the ice disappeared after being such a 'fixture'. Note the 2x daily walk ((1120 ') across Washington Ave bridge, gave lots of time to examine the river below. Many thanks!

    1. Thanks Mark,

      It gets lonely here in the lab down in "Antarctica" without others keeping an eye on things and helping out with comments from time to time.

      The graphs in this post are WHERE graphs rather than WHEN graphs in contrast to what I have tended to do in previous posts.

      I wish that there were more tidal gauges in the "sp" zone of Antarctica.

      However, I do understand that it is a very harsh environment there.

      The ocean is covered with ice shelves near the coast, where the SLF takes place, and where tidal gauges would be helpful.

      There were 7 gauges in the "sp" zone at the max, but over time they all, except one, fell out of service for whatever reasons.

      The GRACE and Cryosat-2 satellites have helped tremendously to let us know absolutely that ice mass is being lost there.

      Thus, we also know by way of use of mathematical lenses that there is SLF there, but to track the impact we will have to also take fingerprints in the "eq" zone.

      That is because SLR there in the "eq" zone means that SLF is happening near the coasts of the "sp" zone (and depending on what tidal gauge station location we use in the "eq" zone, we will see that the Greenland ice sheet mass loss in the "np" zone is also at play).

      I think SLF in the "sp" zone is important to watch because it takes place in a manner that could undermine the ice shelf, which holds back, i.e. buttresses, the ice streams (which means an 8 fold increase in land based ice-sheet-mass loss in some locations due to acceleration of the ice stream flow).

      In Peak Sea Level - 3 we looked at the hypothesis of Gomez and Mitrovica concerning the effect or affect of that SLF.

      (I offered a different take on it from theirs.)

      Stay tuned and chime in if you see things that need adjusting, or have questions.

      Same to all.

  3. Cool graphs showing where things have happened rather when they happened.

    Each point on the "where scenario" is a tide gauge station that makes an official record reported to PSMSL.

    Yep, that is science at work for sure.

    Mean average is ok in some cases where and when it does not obscure.

  4. Thanks Dredd
    This is just so compelling and interesting so thanks for allowing us into the lab to observe--I promise not to touch anything! In AUS now and just met a retired CSIRO from Oceanic and Atmospheric-34 years before the current Gov't 'let go''~20% of the team (sadly).
    He might be able to 'help' with the missing / non functioning Antarctic gauges in some way. He's hard to reach, driven, and still doing important research that must be completed. I owe you this 'try' for the quasi-apprenticeship you are magnanimously providing. ATB!

  5. Mark,

    I am giving the details and pointing out which ones are missing on today's post.