The story of Argentina's big oil discovery compared with the movie Collapse seems to create a tension.The tar sands of Canada and the Argentine fields could supply the U.S., however, Argentina made deals with China.
Does the U.S. have deals with Argentina concerning the new field?
In the post The Fleets & Terrorism Follow The Oil we show that Argentina supplies only 172,464 bbl of our almost 20,000,000 bbl usage.
Plausible scenario:
ReplyDeleteUS throws military/economic weight around to monopolize access to South American oil supplies. Increasingly oil thirsty, but still relatively militarily weak China replies, fine, but you know what? We really have no need for all those US T-bills gathering dust in our vaults.
US replies, yeah, but we're buying all your stuff. When we stop, your population will suffer mightily.
China says, guess what? Our population's still mostly rural and poor anyway. Their USED to it! And should they get out of hand, we still have no problem (and have a recent, credible track record of doing so) cracking down militarily on their asses. We're also not spread thin across the globe fighting "wars" we can't win. Let's see who blinks first.
Advantage: China.
disaffected,
ReplyDeleteI am more skeptical of the U.S. government than I am of Ruppert (Collapse).
I agree with your synopsis in either case. It is at this time the more likely scenario.
Haven't seen Collapse, but thanks to your posts I'm going to investigate (probably wait for it on PPV in any case). Me thinks a dispute over oil will be the straw the breaks the dollar's back regardless. Just amazing the hutzpah that the American government still has regarding our place in the world. As I spelled out in my scenario last week, it's not hard at all to imagine a scenario where Obama loses in 2012 to a hard right Republican demagogue, who then abandons any pretense at civility with the rest of the world (as the GOP base will demand), after which things get exceedingly dicey in a hurry. Just a few short years ago, I too thought people who think as I do now were a little bit loopy. Now, I can't imagine how any rational sentient observer isn't seeing these things. I may be crazy, but my intuitive/intellectual feel for events (with the possible exception of the Democratic Party perhaps, which has continually disappointed in a MAJOR way) has always been pretty good.
ReplyDeleteDredd,
ReplyDeleteAnother brief comment. Regarding the Chinese approach to the US vs the losing Soviet approach, which reached its unsuccessful climax 20 years ago: whereas the Soviets attempted to fight strength with strength, in the generally accepted classic European manner, the Chinese have tried to be weak where we were strong and strong where we were weak (at least until both of our strengths and weaknesses could somewhat equalize, and strategies could be reassessed), in an equally classic Asian manner. I know there's high dollar minds in DC for whom this analysis is strictly ho-hum, but evidently their message is not getting through.