Thursday, December 10, 2015

New Type of SLC Detection Model - 12

Fig. 1 Example SQL query
The new table in the database has the distances from each PSMSL station to Greenland, Antarctica, and Glacier Bay (Fig. 1).

Next I plan to implement the Mitrovica formulas (@ Geophys. J. Int. (2011) 187, 729–742) or something that does the same work.

The importance of this has grown on me since the advent of bogus scientific papers have been showing up in the journal Nature (Questionable "Scientific" Papers, 2).

We need multiple ways to calculate ice volume loss from Greenland, Antarctica, and the smaller glacial areas like Glacier Bay.

The two papers I recently criticized attack the settled science concerning CO2 quantity growth in the atmosphere (Mauna Loa), and ice sheet mass loss at Antarctica and Greenland.

The fingerprint technique is another way to realize that ice mass is being lost at Greenland and at Antarctica (e.g. T(θ, ψ, t) = −SL(θ, ψ, t) @Mitrovica).

The sloppy scientists doing those questionable scientific papers are most likely not aware of the fingerprinting technique.

That technique will confirm the continued ice sheet mass loss at those locations combined with using time-warn tide gage records at reliable PSMSL stations (and also bust them, so we will "Book 'em Danno").

The "distances" database, which I have now completed, will help determine where sea level rise (SLR) or sea level fall (SLF) is being caused by loss of ice sheet mass.

We have to keep a step ahead of the growing number of hopium-filled or deceit-filled people who care too little for accuracy.

Anyway, I now have the table built which contains the distance from each PSMSL station to Greenland, Antarctica, and Glacier Bay.

Those distances can be used to help fingerprint where SLR or SLF at each station is coming from:
"Estimating mean global SL alone ignores the information content inherent to geographic variability. As an example, it is now well understood that the rapid melting of any individual grounded ice reservoir gives rise to a distinct and highly nonuniform pattern—or fingerprint—of static equilibrium sea level change. In particular, in the near field of a melting ice sheet (within ∼2,000 km of the margin), SL will fall due to both crustal uplift and the reduction of the gravitational pull on the ocean from the ice sheet. This fall can be an order of magnitude greater than the equivalent rise in mean global SL associated with the meltwater addition to the ocean. In contrast, in the far field of the ice sheet, SL will rise with (generally) greater amplitude as the distance from the ice sheet increases; this rise can exceed the global mean value by ∼30%. These fingerprints provide a framework for moving beyond inferences of globally averaged SL rise to estimate the contributions from individual meltwater sources."
(PNAS, emphasis added). Distance is one important factor, so, the "distances" table now added to the mix may help us all in our calculations from now on.

I am beginning to see more of the value in having one more tool in the toolbox.

The previous post in this series is here.


  1. and people around the world (well except in coastal states here where they're forbidden by law to even mention sea level rise) are beginning to fret:

    Asia's coastal cities face challenge of rising seas

    The future will be a watery one for some of the world's biggest cities.

    Predicted sea level increases this century mean many face increased flooding, stronger storm surges and unpredictable weather. How well coastal cities can cope will dramatically affect quality of life and their economic destiny. Many of the biggest are in Asia, powering economies while housing hundreds of millions of poor in sprawling slums.

    Scientists generally agree seas will rise an average of 1 meter (3 feet) this century, though some predict an eventual increase as high as 6 meters on average. How quickly these changes occur will partly depend on whether negotiators at this week's U.N. climate talks in Paris can broker a strong treaty to limit the release of climate-warming greenhouse gases. [more]

    I like the way they push it WAY off to the end of the century with their wording. They have no idea . . .


  2. Rising seas expected to sink islands near US capital in 50 years

    The 700 or so people who live on the Tangier islands may be among the first climate refugees in the US when their current home disappears under water.

    This could happen to much of the main island – located 170 kilometres south-east of Washington DC – in as little as 50 years, unless defences are built to hold back the rising tides. [more]


  3. Tom,

    Interesting links.

    They show that the information business in the is incompetent, among other things.

    That "islands near DC" story is history, not the future.

    Hopium expectations drive them mad (The Extinction of Chesapeake Bay).

    Doom looms when history is confused with the future ("Scientists have discovered that 'the present' has always existed, but some of them are not sure about 'the past' and 'the future'." - Dredd Blog Quotes Page).

    Have a nice day.