Friday, December 11, 2015

The Evolution of Models - 18

 
Fig. 1 Very Simple Algebra
I. Some Background

We generally take 1750 as the beginning year of the Industrial Revolution (Wikipedia, cf. Prezi).

We have sea level records from less than a hundred years into that revolution, but in general they are less trusted in terms of accuracy, than recent ones.

I used a formula in a C++ routine to calculate backwards in time to develop some information (Fig. 1) ... more about that later in this post.

I found one example of very early records that were counter to conventional wisdom, but which hold up in principle (Pure Appl. Geophys., 127, 73-77, 1988). and hold up in terms of numerical patterns that regular readers and I have generated, examined, and pondered in recent times.

II. And Then ...

I downloaded those ancient values at PSMSL which were taken from a paper authored by Martin Ekman (1888), which covers sea level records from 1774-1984 in Sweden.
Fig. 2 Old Sea Level Change Records

I acquired them so as to compare them with my projection back into history via the formula shown in Fig. 1.

I graphed the 1774-1984 records as they were written, and lo and behold it ends up that they are accurate and modern in terms of pattern.

That becomes clear if you compare Fig. 2 with Proof of Concept - 5, which contains modern graphs based on trusted PSMSL records of that area.

III. Preparing For The Trip Back

Fig. 3 Circa the hear 2000
Anyway, how I used the simple formula in Fig. 1 is as follows.

First, I acquired values on a USGS page, which indicate how much ice sheet volume there was to melt and to then cause sea level change (SLC).

I found data generated by the USGS circa the year 2000 (Fig. 3).

The SLR value is in meters (multiply by 1000 to convert meter values to millimeters).

Next, I wrote a C++ module to calculate from 2015 back to 1750 (a Wayback Machine), which generated a CSV file, from which I generated several graphs.

The program takes the variable "ivm" (ice volume max: 32,328,300 km3) and the variable "slrm" (sea level rise maximum: 80.32m) from Fig. 3.

Then, using conventional annual SLR values for the "slrc" variable in Fig. 1 (3.5mm, 3.2mm, 1.5mm and 0.5mm (Fig. 5) as values for annual SLR increases since 1750), we backtrack.

The software iterates through each year, beginning in the current year, adding or subtracting (3.5, 3.2, 1.5, or 0.5 mm) etc. from the sea level and/or ice volume for each year.

That in turn causes a decrease or increase in the ice sheet mass variable, which is in this context the inverse of the sea level value variable (in general, as ice volume decreases, sea level increases, and vice versa).

We calculate the increase in ice volume for each year going back to 1750, as well as the global mean average sea level fall (ice volume increases as sea level decreases - except near the coasts of the ice sheets).

It is the reverse of what is happening now and into the future.

It is as if we take the melt water from the ocean and put it back onto the ice sheets of Greenland, Antarctica, and glaciers elsewhere, thereby increasing the ice volume back to what it was "way back then".

IV. What I Brought Back To Show You

Fig. 4
The slope in Fig. 4 shows that there was more ice in the ice sheets in 1750 (compared to now) before the global warning began to set in.
Fig. 5

Fig. 6
The identical slope pattern in Fig. 6 shows that sea level rise potential was also more then than it is now, because there was more ice volume in the ice sheets back then.

The inverse slope in Fig. 5 shows that as the ice sheet volume and mass was lost, the global mean sea level rose.

And, as another proof of concept, the old records graphed in Fig. 2 show that ice sheet gravity was as it is today, still mystifying some people.

That is, as Greenland began to melt as a result of global warming caused by the use of fossil fuels (mainly coal), sea level fall (SLF) began in Scandinavia.

SLF still continues unabated today (Proof of Concept - 5).

I see this technique as an opportunity to build a table in the model's database.

The table will harbor this annual ice sheet volume / mass data in it, to used in future analysis.

The more tools the better.

I intend to enhance this tool by modifying it to calculate each ice sheet's percentage of contribution.

I also plan to add the subsequent thermal expansion contribution (ocean warming induced SLR, which takes place after the cold melt-water eventually warms up).

V. So, What Does That Have To Do With Models?

Human fingerprints are indications of history, in the sense that they can show that someone was at a particular location.

Sea level fingerprints can do the same, and in this case we can "book Greenland Danno," because the fingerprints of Greenland ice sheet melt were found (SLF in Scandinavia).

A model that can run backwards and forwards in time, based upon and beginning from various segments of history which we have and know to be valid, is a more robust model (historical reality guides its future projections).

That is, models based on solid historical records are more desirable than those composed only of pure conjecture.

VI. Conclusion

We press on toward knowing how to analyze what is happening around us, and why.

I must get back to the "lab," as Mark Hanson calls it.

I am anxious to make this Dredd Blog software model very robust in terms of SLC fingerprinting.

Have a robust weekend.

The previous post in this series is here.



7 comments:

  1. Climate Change Is Making the Earth Wobble
    http://news.yahoo.com/climate-change-making-earth-wobble-200121952.html

    ["history" or "future" it's happening]

    g'day mite

    Tom

    ReplyDelete
  2. While making some corrections to this post, and adding a link to the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) in the last sentence of Section IV, I noticed something I wanted to specifically focus on.

    See the post I wrote today if you want to find out what it is.

    It could be big (On The Evolution of Sea Level Change).

    ReplyDelete
  3. Excellent sites like your match with Gvt intel. Soon we need to provide you with some with-held data.

    Intelligence collection analysts collaborate with a number of other analysts and collectors throughout the Intelligence Community, which allow them to identify any gaps in intelligence and develop strategies to close these gaps. These CIA professionals must produce written briefings that detail their findings to U.S. policymakers.

    Intelligence collection analysts also seek to develop current collection systems and acquire new collection systems that represent the interests of the CIA. Intelligence collection analysts also partner and collaborate with other collection professionals in intelligence collection strategy forums and sensitive collection programs.
    Understanding the Process of Intelligence Collection

    Intelligence is said to be the fuel on which the Intelligence Community operates. And the first part of the intelligence process involves its collection. In fact, everything and everyone in the process depends on the collection of intelligence.

    Intelligence collection analysts of the CIA are therefore responsible for ensuring the successful collection of all relevant intelligence, which is then used to produce the finished intelligence reports that are provided to U.S. policymakers when making crucial decisions.

    Intelligence collection analysts may focus their efforts on any number of avenues when it comes to the acquisition of raw intelligence, including:

    Signals intelligence – Involves the interception of signals between people or machines
    Imagery intelligence – Involves obtaining information using radar and infrared sensors, lasers, and visual photograph, just to name a few
    Measurement and Signature Intelligence – Involves using scientific and technical intelligence information to locate and identify the special characteristics of specific targets; this may include nuclear, acoustics, seismic, optical, or materials sciences
    Human-Source Intelligence – Involves the collection of intelligence from human sources
    Open-Source Intelligence – Involves obtaining intelligence form publicly available information, such as television, newspapers, the Internet, or commercial databases, just to name a few
    Geospatial Intelligence – Involves imagery and mapping data gathered from commercial and government satellites, commercial databases, census information, or GPS

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mark,

      Oil-Qaeda has always had their own intelligence operatives: "By 1885," according to one historian, "seventy percent of the Standard's business was overseas and it had its own network of agents through the world, and its own espionage service, to forestall the initiatives of rival companies or governments.
      ...
      John D. Rockefeller, in his 1909 Random Reminiscences of Men and Events, recalled, 'One of our greatest helpers has been the State Department. Our ambassadors and ministers and consuls have aided to push our way into new markets in the utmost corners of the world.'
      "
      (The Private Empire's Social Media Hit Squads).

      The government has always been Oil-Qaeda's little helper.

      Delete
  4. Hey Mark: even with all that "intelligence," THEY continue to make the WRONG decisions (as they have since "the community's" inception).

    Tom

    ReplyDelete
  5. Bravo Dredd! Being able to show what 'was' against what 'is' will prove very helpful. 'Lab' work can be like that; tedious, repetitive, and uninspiring until a 'flash' of discovery makes itself 'visible'. In my mental 'lab', I was celebrating this by hand drumming on the cabinets and counter tops and surprisingly, the empty Pyrex beaker produces a pretty good 'cymbal', when rapped with the LAMY Safari pen!

    ReplyDelete
  6. As Florida Keys flood, property worries seep in
    http://news.yahoo.com/florida-keys-flood-property-worries-seep-041916596.html

    [begins]

    Key Largo (United States) (AFP) - Extreme high tides have turned streets into canal-like swamps in the Florida Keys, with armies of mosquitoes and the stench of stagnating water filling the air, and residents worried rising sea levels will put a damper on property values in the island chain.





    On Key Largo, a tropical isle famous for snorkeling and fishing, the floods began in late September.

    While people expected high tides due to the season and the influence of a super moon, they were taken by surprise when a handful of streets in the lowest-lying neighborhoods stayed inundated for nearly a month with 16-inches (40-centimeters) of saltwater. [more]

    [Hey, what happened to "the end of the century?"]

    Tom

    ReplyDelete