Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Calling All Cars: The Case of the "Missing Six" - 4

Fig. 1 A pattern of evidence
I think that the case of the missing six is now moot.

So, you and I can stop searching for the holy grail now.

That is because there is a more robust way to discern the fingerprint (FP) of sources of influences in tide gauge station records.

That was pointed out in the basic hypothesis set forth in yesterday's Dredd Blog post (SLC Fingerprints R Us).

The fundamental essence of the case is:
1) a land based ice source (ice sheet or glacier) melts or calves to release some part of itself from the land into the ocean;

2) which increases the ocean's volume;

3) and diminishes that ice source's volume, mass, and gravitational power;

4a) the melt water / ice source's loss of gravitational power releases its grasp on sea water around it; 4b) the released melt water warms, the calved ice melts and then that melt water also warms;

5) the Earth's gravity, axial location, rotation, and ocean currents relocate all of the water released into the ocean realm;

6) tide gauge stations at or near the source, the terminus, and even along the way, will record that relocation as sea level change (SLC);

7) those tide gauge station records of SLC therefore contain evidence which can be used to determine the source or sources of that SLC.
The number of tide gauge stations around the world were considered then condensed into the "golden twenty some odd" for specialized reasons (Fig. 1).

It is possible that the following (still good) stations (still active) are some of those "golden twenty some odd" stations:

Newlyn (202)
Brest (1)
Marseille (61)
Trieste (154)
Honolulu (155)
San Francisco (10)
Balboa (163)
Key West (188)
Aberdeen I (361)
North Shields (95)
Charleston I (234)
Hampton Roads (299)
Baltimore (148)
Atlantic City (180)
New York (12)
Eastport (332)

(Calling All Cars: The Case of the "Missing Six" - 3). Fortunately, there is an alternate way to determine the information, the FP (maybe even a better way? ... you decide).

So, today I will use the new Dredd Blog format for some of those "golden twenty something" stations to illustrate the point (Fig. 2).
Fig. 2  Read this first.

There are four graph sections to each full graph, the first section (upper left) is the combined totals (it is also the official PSMSL tide gauge station record for the station depicted).

The other three views or sections concern the contribution (in millimeters) that the ice sheets of "Antarctica" and "Greenland" make, as well as the contribution that glacial fields and ice caps on land make ("Glaciers").

The years involved in each view are displayed along the bottom of each graph.

Any one point in the three non-combined views adds up to that X-Y location's value in the combined view (top left graph):

You can see that displaying and quantifying the actual amounts for each SLC source is a robust way to deliver the information eh?

Each individual tide gauge station, not just a few, has the "DNA" to reveal the information using some simple algebra.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

Got Heart?


  1. Am very much enjoying watching your work develop re SLC. I remember learning in high school that the total amount of water ( solid, liquid, or gas phase) on earth was ~1.4billion cubic kilometres and does not vary a whole lot. What does vary ( and has clearly over eons) is what phase is represented at a given time and if the solid component is decreasing, then the other phases must therefore be increasing. Intuitive and logical--for a Joe Average like me. May thanks Dredd!

    1. Mark,

      You are welcome sir.

      In that light. I added "it is also the official PSMSL tide gauge station record for the station depicted" to the post (in red letters).

      Thus, in that context the only valid questionable part of the hypothesis is the quantity asserted for "Antarctica", "Greenland", and "Glaciers" (other ice sources on land).

      That is, their portion of contribution to the fixed historical, actual tide gauge record totals.

      The contributor quantities are not used in a manner that distorts the historical record in any amount whatsoever.

      A percentage is subtracted from the fixed historical record quantity to derive the amount for each hypothesized contributor's amount.

      As soon as the new modules are out of beta, I will explain the calculations in full in a "The Evolution of Models" post.

      I will say that now that those calculations are primarily based on proximity as set forth in various scientific papers such as "Cryosphere, cf. Oceanography" listed in The Evolution of Models - 18.

      I plan to add a module that loads fine tuning values from a flat file containing e.g. "percent of contribution" to any tide gauge stations specified in that file.

      I am in the process of comparing the various tide gauge station locations to the maps provided in those two papers, to confirm or not the current proximity derived values.

      That will be the basis of percentage adjustments, if any, in the supplemental flat file.

      Basically, that is because the concept of proximity gets us to the ball park just fine, but maybe not to home plate, in some cases at some stations.

      The pristine latitude and longitude contours-of-influence can be tugged one way, then another, by conflicting energies (e.g. gravity, rotation, axial movement, and currents).

      Where the meltwaters from Greenland, Antarctica, etc. finally end up is the ultimate factor.

      Once that is all very down pat, I plan to tackle the conventional wisdom as to when the ice sheets began to contribute to SLC.

      I am going to question the high values for SLC given to thermal expansion and land uplifting (as well as the low values given to ice sheet melt) in the early years (circa 1750 - 1800).

      That would be featured in a "Weekend Rebel Science Excursion" (series) post later on.

      One reason this is important is to grasp how sensitive the ice sheets are to global warming, as well as how another 1.5 deg. C will be more catastrophic than current conventional wisdom (COP21) currently estimates.

    2. Really appreciate the detailed response and adjustments. As a native Minnesotan who lived quite happily along side the ice and snow, its departure each spring was always mysterious and always melancholic. A hot dry wind from the western deserts or warm, humid and sustained puffs up from the GoM each brought a melt rate that always seemed faster that it 'should' be considering all that cold, solid phase about. The melt rate always seemed to increase to just ahead of 'believable'. But, the most 'lethal' threat to the ice castles, skating rinks, ski parks and snow life was the cold spring rain. The rain's melt 'rate' was perceptible to the human eye but a wonder nonetheless.

  2. Hey, it is easy to figure out.

    Take the ending year value, subtract the beginning year value.

    Take Brest for example:

    ~7200 mm end yr (2014) minus ~6950 begin yr (1807) = ~250mm SLR in 207 yrs.

    That is about 1.21 mm yr average.

    The annual contribution of the other three would add up to that annual value, each contributing a percentage (~70% Greenland, ~20% Antarctica, ~10% Glaciers).

    Watch the rounding ...

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