Thursday, May 21, 2015

The Evolution of Models - 9

Fig. 1 Well said

Regular readers know I finished version 1.0 of the Dredd Blog sea level rise (SLR) projection software (The Evolution of Models, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).

I came across a statement yesterday which made me glad about the design of that software.

Interestingly, the big boys with their million lines of code programs had to rewrite their software related to Greenland.

I am not privy to that code so I am not sure exactly what they will remodel.

They explained that "results of these studies are expected to improve predictions of the future of the entire Greenland ice sheet and its contribution to sea level rise as researchers revamp their computer models of how the ice sheet reacts to a warming climate" (Hidden Movements of Greenland Ice Sheet, Runoff Revealed). [which means they want it to stop underestimating SLR].

I made the Dredd Blog software "data driven," so, the software does not need to change as research data changes.

As the data improves the predictions will improve, but not only that, different value scenarios can be animated in "what if" projections.

As an example of that, the three "what ifs" that Dr. James Hansen speaks about in one of his papers can be matched exactly with the same code (The Evolution of Models - 7).

Greenland: Future of East Coast Populations

Fig. 2 Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
Quite a few posts have pointed out that the general Arctic current is warming and having an impact on Greenland which then impacts the U.S. East Coast with SLR (Series Posts, # "Sea Level Rise").

Today I am providing some review of just how radical the Arctic is being changed by global warming (see the videos below, and read Arctic Is Changing Radically, PDF).

What Happens In Greenland Stays In New England

Of the two factors, the Arctic in general, and Greenland in particular, Greenland is the focus as the source of SLR.

That said, we can tell to some degree how Greenland SLR will be impacted by the changes in the Arctic Ocean, which is why the two videos below contain very important information.

The oscillations of Greenland melt can fool us into false hope and complacency when its melt vacillates, so remember the trend (see Fig. 2).

It is going to melt, so get over the false hope.

That is why we must also watch what happens in the Arctic Ocean, because it will help unlock north eastern Greenland ice drainage systems (Nioghalvfjerdsbræ (79) Glacier, Northeast Greenland).

In Dredd Blog SLR software parlance, that is the back door to the zones called "inland 1", "inland 2", and "no-melt" (The Evolution of Models - 5).

How Radical Arctic Changes Impact North Greenland

Dr. D.G. Barber explains how radically the Arctic has changed during his career as a scientist there.

He also mentions [09:45 - 11:05 in the first video] that oil drilling rigs being sent there with the permission of the Obama Administration "regulators" (Oil-Qaeda & MOMCOM Conspire To Commit Depraved-Heart Murder, Barry & Oil-Qaeda vs Arctic Wilderness) are imperilled by old ice.

Most of the ice is now called "rotten ice."

The warming air and water convert old ice into rotten ice, then currents take that water toward Greenland (The Question Is: How Much Acceleration Is Involved In SLR? - 4).

Which then impacts the ice shelf floating on the ocean in north Greenland, which weakens, and then like the Larsen B in Antarctica, no longer sufficiently resists glacier flow into the ocean.

That is why it is a great threat to current civilization (Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization, 2).

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

2015 Tedx Video featuring long-time Arctic scientist:

NASA 2003-2012 Melt dynamics:


  1. Thanks for another informative post on this direct impact to the East coast of the U.S. where i (we?) live. i can be confident that the weather patterns we've experienced the last few years of bitter cold and lots of snow and ice (& longer winter) will more than likely continue for a while yet as the sea level increases along the coastline. There will probably also be more volcano and earthquake activity, or at least some expected movement of the plate we're on (the Craton) due to the loss of (ice) mass in Greenland. Other consequences aren't so easy to see and will be "unexpected" when they impact us. In all, we're in an uncharted area now with respect to climate change, Arctic ice loss and weather (to name a few aspects).

    Thanks for keeping us informed, Dredd.


    1. Tom,

      The first video in this post (Dr. D.G. Barber) indicates agreement with what I have been posting about the Polar Vortex.

      I have associatied that demise with the record cold on the east coast at the same time there is record warm on the west coast.

      Warm flows to cold, and at times afterward wind currents carry the cold aura away.

      Like the cold air closely surrounding a large block of ice on a hot day being carried away by currents caused by warm air flowing to the cold ice to melt it.

      The Polar Vortex, as we have known it, is dying away.

      Metaphorically, the cold spells flowing south are its "blood and its energy" leaving the Arctic.

      The same phenomenon has abruptly reduced the number of tornadoes and impacted jet streams.

      Quite recently tornadoes were rapidly increasing in numbers to reach an all-time high, then those numbers abruptly went way, way down (On The Origin of Tornadoes - 6). [beginning at 11:05 in the video]

      This is abrupt climate change.

      This scientist who has studied the Arctic for 30 years says he is utterly surprised at the changes taking place.

      Likewise his associates did not expect what has already happened.

      Once the Polar Vortex, along with the old winter ice under it (only ~12% remaining now), dies out, I expect the tornado count to return to go ballistic.

      Like SLR.

      So, those camps should not be set up in the heartland IMO.

  2. "Arctic Sea Ice At Historic Low" (link)