Thursday, September 19, 2019

The Peak Of The Oil Wars - 14

Climate Week
This Dredd Blog series began nine years ago (The Peak Of The Oil Wars, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13).

Now, the better part of a decade later, it seems official in some circles that an act of oil-war broke out when half of Saudi Arabia's ability to produce the crude was bombed out of existence this week:
"The attack on Saudi oil facilities is the latest, most violent, example of an escalating series of gambits by rival powers in the Gulf aimed at achieving their objectives by all measures short of all-out war.

But the chances of avoiding such a devastating conflict diminish each time the stakes are raised.

Iran has denied responsibility for the attack on an oil field and refining facility, while the US, Saudi Arabia and their allies have hesitated over the geographical origin of the airstrikes. The size and sophistication of the operation however points to a state actor, and it fits a pattern in recent months of increasingly bold Iranian moves intended to raise the costs of the US campaign of maximum pressure and the Saudi war in Yemen.

Until now, Iranian harassment of oil tankers travelling through the strait of Hormuz and the downing of a US surveillance drone have appeared calibrated to stop short of triggering a military response. If Iran is indeed behind Saturday’s strikes, it marks a significant step towards more reckless action by Tehran, possibly emboldened by the departure of Donald Trump’s national security adviser, John Bolton, and the desperation of Iran’s economic plight.

“What is clear is that the strategy of bombing Yemenis and starving Iranians into submission is more likely to backfire than bring the desired results,” said Ali Vaez, an Iran expert at the International Crisis Group. “Iran has less to lose and is less risk-averse.”

Trump’s tweet about being “locked and loaded” echoed his claim the US was “cocked and loaded” in response to the downing of a US drone in June. But having agreed to launch retaliatory missile strikes then, Trump changed his mind, saying the risk of casualties made it a disproportionate response.
'If they [Saudi's] retaliate, the Iranians would have to retaliate even more. And we are just in an inertia of war,' Seznec said. 'We really are in that situation right now and what’s so scary is that people all agree that this is not good for anybody. But there is nobody who can stop it.'”
(Saudi oil attack signals an escalating crisis, emphasis added). Don't forget the power of love ... oh yeah ... not much love between the Saudis and Iranians, so what about a threesome with The Stable Genius lover-boy at the helm?

At this point he has been jilted, and so, like LBJ who said "let us continyah to continyah" the Lover Boy in chief will continue sanctions as a remedy.

Some say that his withdrawal from the agreement (among the US and its allies) with Iran over nuclear issues, and replacement of the agreement with increasingly aggressive sanctions is what caused this oil-war in the first place.

The fact that this oil-war is raising oil prices gives Oil-Qaeda pause, so perhaps we should keep our attention on "there is nobody who can stop it."

We shall see (If the world ran on sun, it wouldn’t fight over oil) if Climate Week will overcome oil century (The Universal Smedley - 2).

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.


  1. "Iran threatens 'all-out war' if attacked" (link)

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