Saturday, September 30, 2017

When Will The Arctic Sea-ice Be Gone? - 3

Fig. 1 September 28, 2017
Previous posts in this series were presented at a time when it looked as if this year, 2017, was going to be the year of no summer sea ice in the Arctic.

The software module I developed to project the year when the numbers and logic calculated the year that event would take place, indicated that it would take place circa 2024-2025 (When Will The Arctic Sea-ice Be Gone?, 2).

Fig. 2 No Summer Sea-ice (red line)

That is the year of "no summer sea ice" but "no winter or summer sea ice" was of course projected to take place about a decade later circa 2038 (Fig. 3).

The graph at Fig. 1 is the current NSIDC graph for summer sea ice extent.

The graph at Fig. 2 has a red line added to the Fig. 1 graph to show the distance yet to go before no summer sea ice takes place in the Arctic.
Fig. 3 Current Dredd Blog Projection
The year 2012 continues to hold the record low for the month of September, however, the years 2016 and 2017 hold the record in other months of the year, having taken those monthly record lows away from the year 2012.

It is important to remember that these trajectories for sea ice extent, sea ice volume, as well as for  other global warming phenomena, are non linear (that much is obvious).

It works both ways in the sense that we have years with acceleration and years of deceleration.

However, the trend has not changed and will continue its inevitable course.

That much is also obvious.

The previous post in this series is here.

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