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| Fig. 1 |
I. Start Here
I have several things to talk about today.
The graphs at Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 show progress being made on the rebel software.
It is still in alpha, but it is already rebellious because it takes gravity, axial relocation, rotational relocation, and both sea level rise (SLR) and sea level fall (SLF) into consideration (New Type of SLC Detection Model, 2, 3, 4).
It's about time that all developers of software models, who deal with the issue of sea level change (SLC). not do so perfunctorily, but rather to stop and think.
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| Fig. 2 |
First of all, there is no such thing as "global mean sea level," so the fewer times we use it in public the better.
The reality is that at any given time there are a plethora of sea levels around the globe, which are different from one another, and do not fit into the plain vanilla folder "global mean sea level."
II. Progress So Far
The software uses tidal gauge data, from PSMSL that has 30 or more years of recorded sea level.
These tidal gauge stations are located all around the globe.
That means 728 tide gauge stations, out of 1,417 in the PSMSL database, pass muster for use by the modelling software.
Professor Mitrovica says "only use those with 30 years or more" of tidal records, and so this software now does that.
The gist of it is that history is taken into consideration first, then at the end of that history, the future begins.
The future is added onto the end of history.
What a concept eh?
III. Other Stuff
Those who went out and bought heavy coats and industrial grade furnaces (because Oil-Qaeda operatives, like Senator Inhofe, said "an ice age is coming") will be disappointed (Global Warming Pause is a hoax; see also this).
Our current year, not to be outdone by all the other years before it, is claiming, so far, to be the year of the hottie (2015 So Far Hottest on record, NOAA).
Did you NOAA 'bout that, or 'bout 64 degrees F in the deep freezer: Antarctica May Have Hit Highest Temperature on Record ?
And, for those who do not read Dredd Blog, why not read Exxon of Oil-Qaeda?
It is about an old but common theme on Dredd Blog, which is the Oil-Qaeda deceit that has been written about ad nauseam here.
IV. Back To The Software Model
Wouldn't you think it is important for your local sea port builder to know what the sea level is going to be when all the plans, permits, and bucks are put together on a project that, all things considered, takes 20-30 or so years to get ready?
The "global mean sea level" fairy tale is not sufficient for prime time sea port builders (Peak Sea Level - 2).
Lawsuits and fools galore will proliferate unless we stop that savage beast from appearing on the pages of stuff we read, and from the hearings we hold as well.
Oil-Qaeda preaches with a fuzzy lack of logic.
V. How About That Ceres & Pluto?
I am not talking about candidates for "The Decider" or "The High Priest In Chief."
I am talking about those very wiggy orbs that some of our space craft are orbiting, and sending home selfies, data stories, and stuff.
It would be a tragedy if we kept on keeping on without holding Oil-Qaeda accountable, and without LEAVING IT IN THE GROUND.
Because, it is a certainty that those spacecraft will have no home to call home to should we fail to stop destroying home in the name of "progress."
VI. Conclusion
Have a nice weekend anyway!
You realize, of course, that if we shut off civilization, the particulates fall out of the atmosphere and the temperature spikes in a matter of days or weeks (from Guy's Curious radio interview) to levels humanity has never experienced before. So even if we win (on the Oil Qaeda thing) we lose (extinction even more quickly) because plants and other species can't adapt to sudden spikes (or drops) in temperature for sustained periods of time. Just sayin'
ReplyDeletei'm enjoying your progress on this model, Dredd - spectacular job!
Tom
Tom,
DeleteYes, the old "if the ice sheet instantly melted" scenario that McPherson, Mitrovica, and every other SLC scientist uses for emphasis.
The scenario I see is a gradual, but accelerating ice sheet mass loss, with some surges now and then.
Thus, a gradual, but accelerating, not an instant karma scenario (instant karma comes from nuclear war, should that interrupt the slow and sure, but not instant demise).
When it reaches the 1m / ~3ft. SLR level in a given SLR location, the sea port traffic takes a hit, increasing each year until ports are severely impaired.
As slowdowns across the industrial civilization scenario take place, because of the various impairments, the particulates gradually decrease, but that decrease accelerates.
Rising seas threaten San Francisco Bay and Delta wetlands and land
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mercurynews.com/my-town/ci_28825545/?ref=yfp
[quote]
Predicted sea level rises of 3 feet or more by 2100 resulting from climate change could wash out and cover shallow tidal wetlands that act as important nurseries and habitat for wild fish, birds and other aquatic sea life, according to the scientific report on the state of the bay-Delta estuary.
Is this prediction, as usual, way too conservative? I mean, wouldn't you want to know what it would be in, oh . . say, YOUR LIFETIME? Or the next 10 years? Geez, Louise!
Tom
San Francisco is experiencing SLR now, while Yakutat, north of it, is experiencing SLF.
DeleteThe Alaskans in general don't know why: "Southern Alaskan sea levels defy worldwide trends" (Sea Level Fall: The Forgotten Aspect of Sea Level Rise?, quoting an Alaska newspaper).
Note that the SLR in Frisco is already about 1ft and rising (New Type of SLC Detection Model - 3).
The Frisco folk are aware of it, and why: "with a 1.0 ... m rise in sea levels" (quote from a San Franciso official study here: The Evolution of Models - 5).
There is not a heavy load to lift to lift sea level in SLR GeoZones: "All that is required to make the case is pointing out that when a tiny one percent (1.14%) of the world's ice melts, then flows into the sea as melt water, or slides into the sea as ice (e.g. icebergs), then 1m / 3ft increase in SLR is done."
(Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization - 4). One point one four (1.14) percent is all that is needed ... for the fabled "global mean average sea level rise" ...
Which means much less than that under the aware (SLC = SLR / SLF) model of sea level science.
The SLR regions of the GeoZones "aa - br" get as much as 30% more SLR than other places.
For example, the East Coast and the Gulf Coast of the USA are the highest achievers in that scenario.
But remember that SLF is also a danger to sea ports and methane release in the Arctic as SLF sets in.
As the Greenland ice sheet loses mass SLF results (Peak Sea Level - 2).
The complications are many, the solution is not: LEAVE FOSSIL FUELS IN THE GROUND