Wednesday, October 27, 2010

It Has All Gone Poll-itical Now - 2

In the first post of this series we focused on the estimates and guesstimates of FiveThirtyEight, an organization that was very accurate in the last presidential election.

This post we take a gander at The Cook Political Report:
"The Cook Political Report's pre-election House outlook is a Democratic net loss of 48 to 60 seats, with higher losses possible. A turnover of just 39 seats would tip majority status into Republican hands."
(The Cook Political Report, as of Oct. 26). That is essentially the same as what FiveThirtyEight is looking for.

As to the Senate race Cook has it going down this way:
"With the election just seven days away, The Cook Political Report's current outlook continues to be a 7 to 9 seat net gain for Republicans. Currently there are 57 Democrats, two independents that caucus with Democrats, and 41 Republican Senators. Post-election, Republicans could hold between 48 and 50 seats to 50 to 52 seats for Democrats."
(ibid). I would hearken back to Dredd Blog posts for over a year that this was coming if the democrats, beginning with Obama, did not lose The W compass:
In this series Dredd Blog has been asking "how many seats will the democrats loose" due to their indiscriminate continuation of military spending for the hideous and unpopular wars.
(Democrats Pay How Much For War?). The Republicans get about a 24% favourable rating, but the big factor is the polls that show a vast majority think the nation is going in the wrong direction.

That implicates the Democrats now, because that poll has been solid for ten years, so, since they did nothing to end the wars except give lip service and major amounts of money to corrupt governments in foreign lands, they go down.

In March of 2009 Dredd Blog warned them not to forget what was rejected in the elections that put them in office.

They did not heed the warning, so now they are being rejected as Dredd Blog said they would be.

Republicans will undoubtedly make the same mistake so the decline will continue.

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