Thursday, August 27, 2015

Don't Believe In Abrupt Sea Level Change - Know About It

There is an interesting science news story I want to talk about.

It concerns how scientists using low-tech data discovered a surprise that scientists using the highest-tech data also discovered.

Both ends of the discovery had to do with an abrupt sea level change (SLC) event with invisible links to one another.

Another part of this news story is that neither the low-tech nor the high-tech scientific data concerning the same event are generally associated with abrupt SLC (by current SLC scientists at large).

In today's post, let's not believe why, instead, let's know why.

II. Abrupt Change Means Not Seeing Change Coming

The word "abrupt" means "sudden or unexpected" in any discipline of science.

But, as regards the science of SLC, in the past "abrupt SLC" has generally been applied as a description only to describe a tsunami.

Not any more, in some cases, because what scientists observed using high-tech methods (and "tsunami" language) was not a tsunami:
"The latest findings by a team of scientists from the UK’s University of Bristol show that with no sign of warning, multiple glaciers along the Southern Antarctic Peninsula suddenly started to shed ice into the ocean starting in 2009 ... Prior to 2009, the 750 km-long Southern Antarctic Peninsula showed no signs of change ... The study includes five years of measurements from ESA’s ice mission, CryoSat, which employs an advanced radar altimeter that can measure the surface height variation of ice in fine detail, allowing scientists to record changes in its volume with unprecedented accuracy."
(Univ. of Bristol, emphasis added). The business as usual model of Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelf science had been that the Antarctic Ice Sheet was very stable and had been so for centuries.

The old "nothing to see here folks, move along now" syndrome.

At the other end of this story was another abrupt SLC event that I will argue was connected to the high-tech abrupt SLC event:
"Our analysis of multi-decadal tide gauge records along the North American east coast identified an extreme sea-level rise event during 2009–2010. Within this relatively brief two-year period, coastal sea level north of New York City jumped by up to 128 mm [5.04 inches]."
(NOAA, An Extreme Event of Sea-level Rise, emphasis added). We are talking about a sudden and unexpected loss of ice sheet mass in W. Antarctica, in the same year as an unexpected SLC on the East Coast of the United States.

Let's talk about the connection, even though it is an invisible connection.

III. The Gravity Bone Is Connected To The Sea Level Bone

Regular readers know that around here lately we have been focusing on not using the bathtub model of SLC.

That is, following the scientific papers and presentations of Professor Dr. Jerry Mitrovica and Professor Dr. Natalya Gomez, we realize that sea level rise (SLR) and sea level fall (SLF) are two sides of the same SLC coin (see video below).

What links them is ice sheet, and other gravity (The Gravity of Sea Level Change).

So, the gravity bone is connected to the sea level bone (Dem Bones).

Both teams of scientists who discovered the two ends of the same connection tried to link the "two events" to something else, such as currents, temperatures, and winds for example.

But, just as certain as tomorrow's tides, both the high tide SLR and the low tide SLF are the results of gravity and its associates.

As the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica melt and/or calve into the oceans around them, the gravity of their ice sheets diminishes accordingly.

The sea level around then falls as the ice sheet gravity weakens, and the water moves away from its gravity forced location near the shore, to be "relocated to a different elevation" by the august gravitational, axial, and rotational forces of the Earth.

IV. The East Coast Relocation Fingerprint

In yesterday's post I wrote about the fingerprints of SLC, and provided some examples
The fingerprint of gravity connection
that were provided by Dr. Mitrovia in his presentation.

One fingerprint is that the East Coast of the U.S. will have SLR as the W. Antarctica ice sheet melts or calves into the sea around it.

At the same time, SLF will take place around the coast of W. Antarctica (again, if you have not already, watch the video of Jerry Mitrovica below).

Other locations will have less, more, or none according to the footprint of SLC, which is
Rise, Fall, and Status Quo: Not a bathtub scene
anything but an event like putting water into a bathtub or backyard pool.

While watching and expecting that bathtub or pool water level to rise as evenly as we once expected SLC to happen on the oceans of the world.

Oh, SLC does and will continue to seem quite slow and uniform, on the local level, however on the global scene it varies according to "the fingerprint."

The fingerprint science is a mind-blower, shaking "the faith" of some:
In climate science and throughout earth and planetary science, these “fingerprints” and the complex mathematical methods behind them have gained wide acceptance. But even now, when Mitrovica talks with scientists from other fields about the finding that sea levels will fall in some places, he is reminded that the idea is “so counterintuitive that sometimes they don’t believe it. Or they think it must be dependent on some weird model parameter. But it isn’t. It’s just Newton sitting under the tree and the apple hitting him on the head.”
(Harvard Magazine, emphasis added). How odd when scientists doubt the fundamentals ... even more odd than religionists not believing it.

V. The U.S.A. Gets The Finger 

That fingerprint does not bode well for the future of sea ports, especially those on the shores of the East Coast in the

When it dawns on the general populace, if it ever does, that the government has been manipulated into a corner by Oil-Qaeda a.k.a. The Private Empire a.k.a MOMCOM, let's just say they will be "disappointed."

When the coastal sea ports begin to have to be shut down, they may become Disappointed, and later when they are put in camps, they may become DISAPPOINTED (You Are Here - 5).

That is because they have been given the shaft, and also because the deceivers have been given the mine (for a little while anyway).

VI. Conclusion.

You get my drift (Greenland & Antarctica Invade The United States, 2, 3, The 1% May Face The Wrath of Sea Level Rise First, Why The Military Can't Defend Against The Invasion, Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 44, Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization, 2, 3, 4, 5).

The next post in this series is here.

About the gravity of ice sheets and its impact on sea level change fingerprints:


  1. Good to see the obscenely rich finally getting inconvenienced have no doubt about it anyone without an exception who lives in an ocean front property is somebody who could afford to live there was is a beneficiary of the fossil fuel powered wealth creation and now will have to start repay for it in some way .. As it is right now there are still only a very few places where this effect as i have said it merely inconveniences those obscenely rich people who were the primary beneficiaries of the economical system causing this kind of situation .. well as the song goes "We pay our debt sometime" No biggie i am not concerned about these people these folks will buy up the second row houses and live happily ever after until they don't

  2. New York is listening.

    New York will fund $100M flood protection project to shield lower Manhattan from 'changing climate'

    Flood walls, levees, and more parkland will be added under the $100 million project to safeguard lower Manhattan from major storms.

    [I notice they aren't paying any attention to SLR]


    1. Tom,

      "I notice they aren't paying any attention to SLR"

      Politicians do not want to scare the hoi polloi so they avoid certain issues.

      The officials dealing with SLR know about it, but they do not understand the gravity of the situation:
      According to a recent report from the New York Panel on Climate Change, this 12 inches of additional sea level “expanded Hurricane Sandy’s flood area by approximately 25 square miles, flooding the homes of more than 80,000 additional people in New York and New Jersey alone.”

      (New York City is figuring out how to respond to a major climate disaster — and when to give up trying)

      The big political thingy now is to decide how much to supplement $24,000 per year flood insurance policies (You Are Here - 5).

  3. "We need more resources than we have to do that." - Sen. Daniel Squadron (D-Manhattan / Brooklyn)

    That is from Tom's link.

    Oil-Qaeda should chip in.

  4. Officials seem to have forgotten that gravity did not die with Newton, or scientists have not informed them yet.

    They still don't mention Newton, gravity, axial re-positioning, or Earth rotation as factors of East Coast SLC impacts:
    "Sea levels are rising faster than they did 50 years ago and “it’s very likely to get worse in the future,” Nerem said.

    The changes are not uniform. Some areas showed sea levels rising more than 9 inches (25 cm) and other regions, such as along the U.S. West Coast [Alaska Glacier ice mass loss], actually falling, according to an analysis of 23 years of satellite data."

    They mention the differences (SLF on the West Coast) which is from Alaska glacier melt and loss of ice mass / gravity (Mitrovia video).

    (NASA: Sea Level Rise Likely To Get Much Worse - Huffington Post)

    1. The general ignorance about SLC is everywhere.

      There is little to no awareness that the Arctic Ocean will be impacted by SLF more than SLR.

      Dr. Mitrovia points out that if all Greenland's ice sheet melted the sea level around its coast would drop 100 meters.

      That would impact the Arctic Ocean, "over the top route" ship travel plans, plans for ports in Iceland to rival Hong Kong, oil drilling plans, and methane hydrate collapse and subsequent release of methane into water columns and the atmosphere.

      Not many realize that the SLF there means SLR somewhere else.

      "In a conference call with reporters on Tuesday, Pomerance pointed to the melting of Alaska's glaciers as evidence of the swift-moving impacts of global warming in that state. “They are melting very fast and will be a very big part of sea level rise this century," Pomerance said of Alaska's glaciers and those in other parts of the Arctic."

      (High hopes for Obama's historic visit to the 'unraveling' Arctic).

      Alaska glaciers have very little to do with global SLR (a foot if all of it melts, compared to ~212-230 feet if Antarctica ice sheets completely melt, or ~21 feet if Greenland ice sheets completely melt).

      Their larger impact is SLF near the Alaska coast.

      (see the Dr. Mitrovia video)


    Watching Rising Seas From Space
    NASA JPL [short video]


    1. That flick leans too much on thermal expansion.

      Thermal expansion SLR is a minor player compared to ice sheet disintegration.

  6. That video you linked to which I deleted was utterly stupid Tom.