Monday, August 3, 2015

Sea Level Fall: The Forgotten Aspect of Sea Level Rise?

Fig. 1 Climate Change and Sea Level
I. Background

Regular readers know that I have been putting a lot of research and writing into the subject of sea level rise (SLR) this year.

That is not to imply that I haven't written anything at all about SLR in years past  (e.g. Will This Float Your Boat?, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11; 5/11-5/15).

What I have not focused on in sea level fall (SLF).

While researching the issue, while developing software to calculate future SLR, and while urging more attention to SLR, I just had an epiphany today.

I seems science fiction, but the epiphany is this: unless we have had an SLF, we cannot yet have had an SLR.

That is, unless the science team that I wrote about on Friday has an invalid hypothesis (Is A New Age Of Pressure Upon Us? - 7).

II. The Issue of Gravity Loss @ Greenland & Antarctica

Take a careful look at Fig. 1 and Fig. 2, as well as the posts they link to, because they show that both SLF and SLR are one of the results of melting ice sheets.
Fig. 2 Axis Upheaval

That is, Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 show a fall in sea level around both Greenland and Antarctica as a result of the loss of gravity caused by the loss of ice mass on those two ice sheets.

And of all things, like I wrote about in Friday's post, quoting the science team that works on this physics oriented aspect of SLR / SLF, when the ice sheet of West Antarctica (WAIS) melts, the resulting SLR of 4 ft. will manifest at, of all places, the coasts of the United States!

Not only that, the same thing happens to the U.S. when the ice sheet at Greenland melts (Greenland & Antarctica Invade The United States, 2, 3).

Double whammy!

III. The Gravamen of the Situation

We must with all dispatch determine if the science in the hypothesis of Professor Jerry X. Mitrovica et al. is correct (see video below).

We must determine if the SLF around Greenland and Antarctica can be detected, and if not, why not.

Alaska SLF
GRACE, the satellite, has already shown that there is gravity loss in the WAIS.

There is SLF around Alaska where glaciers along with their gravity have vanished into history (Southern Alaskan Sea Level Fall).

The ice shelf floating on the ocean around Antarctica may be a deterrent to detecting SLF, but there are open water areas around Greenland where that is not the case.

Check it out dear scientists.

IV. The Potential Consequence of Not Knowing

There would be no loss of gravity if all the meltwater was going into the huge canyons and river systems beneath both Greenland and Antarctica (The Surge: A Forgotten Aspect of Sea Level Rise).

Which means that at any time whatever is damming the meltwater, whatever is preventing it from reaching the sea, is keeping the gravity there over the land too.

A surge (or "pulse") in this case is a sudden release of meltwater when an obstruction gives way letting all the gravity and water flow into the sea away from the land:
However, meltwater pulse 1C (8,200-7,600 years ago) left traces at numerous locations in the United States, northwestern Europe, and China. It occurred soon after the 8200 year cold event, which resulted from the final catastrophic drainage of glacial Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway around 8400 years ago. The torrent of around 100,000 cubic kilometers unleashed within a few years or less amounted to barely a meter rise in global sea level, if evenly spread across the world's oceans (note 1). Yet the stratigraphic record preserves vestiges of this relatively minor pulse.
(The Surge: A Forgotten Aspect of Sea Level Rise, cf. Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 45). SLF is the hidden gorilla in the SLR room.

V. Conclusion

Somebody has to do it.

In the next few days or so I am upgrading my SLR calculation software to also deal, in some way, with the concept of gravity induced SLF (unless comments by regular readers have contra information).

Professor Jerry X. Mitrovica on the gravity / axis bulge SLR issues we don't hear about often enough:

05:00 ... an ice sheet has mass ... it has an effect on the sea water around it ...
18:15 ... if glaciers melt in Alaska sea around it will drop ...
19:15 ... unevenness of SLF / SLF informs what ice is melting where ...

Friday, July 31, 2015

Is A New Age Of Pressure Upon Us? - 7

Fig. 1  Axis shift induced sea level rise
This series is about some seemingly science fiction aspects of global warming induced climate change.

Warming climate changes that cause polar ice sheets to melt, to weaken, and to shift gravity.

Today, I want to talk about an effect that will impact two areas of the globe with sea level rise (SLR), focusing on one such area called "the United States of America" or USeh?:
Polar ice sheets are not located symmetrically on Earth’s poles. Therefore, in light of their huge mass, Earth’s axis of rotation changes as they grow or shrink. Jerry Mitrovica has calculated that if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet [WAIS] melted in its entirety, the southern pole of Earth’s axis would move about half a mile toward the tip of South America. This change alone would raise sea level about 4 feet in two roughly circular regions, one in the Indian Ocean and the other centered on the US. This calculation demonstrates that movement, or wandering, of the poles is a substantial effect. It also demonstrates another way that changes in sea level are highly variable around the globe. Mitrovica takes polar wandering into account when inferring the relationship between changes in local sea level since the Pliocene observed at Pliomax sites and global average sea level change.
(Axis Upheaval, emphasis added; cf. Fig. 1 & video below). As most people who concern themselves with SLR know, the WAIS is melting faster than East Antarctica is.
Fig. 2 Potential SLR with source locations

This 1.22 m / 4 ft SLR, which Dr. Mitrovica identifies (see Fig 1), would not be the result of the meltwater coming from the WAIS.

If you notice Fig. 2, SLR from WAIS meltwater would be 26.44 feet.

Thus, the extra 4 ft. from the axis shift is superfluous, because substantial catastrophe takes place at about 1m / 3ft of SLR (A Paper From Hansen et al. Is Now Open For Discussion).

But, what it does serve to illustrate is that there are more forces associated with melting ice sheets than meltwater and icebergs alone.

Fig. 3  Who needs 4ft more of SLR?
There are pressures and forces that IPCC and other SLR modelling software does not take into consideration, even though those forces are dynamic and active each day, like the melting ice caps and rising seas are.

They are all linked together, acting as synchronized global phenomena, with a surprising percentage added onto meltwater and iceberg SLR impacts.

A previous post details what is shown in Fig. 3 in the Chesapeake Bay area, where "at least 13 islands" are already submerged (Will This Float Your Boat - 10).

The 4ft. axis shift (Fig. 1) is (4 ÷ 26.44 = 0.15128593) ~15% as much SLR as the entire melted ice sheet engenders ( 0.15128593 * 100 = 15.13%).

That 15% is not caused by additional meltwater entering the sea, rather, it is caused by a "bulge" (gravity, centripetal force, etc.) explained in the video below.

It would seem to me that this means there may be an additional up to ~15% SLR impact at any given time which we can add to meltwater or iceberg SLR calculations.

That is because this phenomenon is happening all the time, as the ice almost imperceptibly melts, the axis location almost imperceptibly moves causing the SLR bulge to move toward the U.S. too (e.g. Antarctic Gravity Data and Gravity Shift Reveals West Antarctic Ice Loss).

The location shown in Fig. 1 is its final quantity of SLR and final destination, after all the WAIS melts or calves into the sea.

But, as it melts from 25% to 50%, then on to 100%, the bulge effect is constantly moving in the ocean, from where it is now to where it will eventually end up.

There are additional forces associated with the ice sheet melt and disintegration, such as sub-glacial land mass uprising as the ice sheet, which now suppresses it downward, gets lighter and lighter (Is A New Age Of Pressure Upon Us?, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).

We have even witnessed recently, with our own eyes, a volcanic eruption as a result of a glacier in Iceland melting to such a degree that it could no longer suppress the magma below the bedrock the sheet rested on, because it became too thin (e.g. Global Warming & Volcanic Eruptions).

The melting in Greenland, and other locations in Antarctica, will change, accelerate, or otherwise impact upon the bulge locations, depending on which melts first and/or melts most (The Gravity of Glacial Melt).

That we are consistently having "the warmest year" each year now, means that there will be ongoing increased impact year by year.

Increased fossil fuel use also increases the ice melt on the warming globe.

The previous post in this series is here.

Professor Jerry X. Mitrovica on the gravity / axis bulge SLR issues we don't hear about often:

Thursday, July 30, 2015


"Where are you Luke, I am your father. I must kill you."

Father Change Jingles In My Pocket
by Dredd

Only one thing
has changed father.

You are dead,
no more
rape and murder for you.

We are still here,
still true,
only older.

But never as old
as you were
born to be.

Cut short by your
Own life.

Our old
become younger.

the stars shine
once again.

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Symbolic Racism: A Look At The Science - 11

Where did America go?
I started this series as a blogger observing ongoing cultural dynamics, somewhat in the nature of a meme complex.

I was contemplating racist events which, in my clueless mind, were quietly flowing under the surface of society, ruffling feathers but not too much more.

It was an academic exercise to study things "down under the hood" (Symbolic Racism: A Look At The Science - 3).

I had no expectation whatsoever that the engine down under the hood would jump out of the engine well, and go through the hood, to explode onto the streets of America.

But it surely has, especially since I started this series well before even the infamous Ferguson shooting took place to start the carnage.

Our culture, like me, was totally unaware of the degree to which the subject matter I selected was actually spot on, prescient, and ready to explode into the public eye.

Now, a year and a quarter later, we are going on two thousand Americans who have been gunned down by a police force composed, to a frightful degree, of seemingly unstable minds (The Counted).

Please, let me repeat what I wrote in the previous post of this series, even though it is a bit redundant:
As I wrote in the previous post:
I began this series, on April 28, 2014.

Like you of course, at that time I had no idea that the Ferguson phenomenon would begin some months later on August 9, 2014.

In fact, by the time of the Ferguson phenomenon, I had already posted about half of the posts now contained in this series (Symbolic Racism: A Look At The Science, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).
(Symbolic Racism: A Look At The Science - 9). The many police killings of unarmed black men brought out one type of criticism of symbolic racism, and now the mass-murder in South Carolina has brought out another type of criticism.
(Symbolic Racism: A Look At The Science - 10). So, after scratching my head and wondering what was going on, I remembered another Dredd Blog series.

Upon reflection of that series, I am convinced that Radley Balko was spot on and prescient in his book Rise of the Warrior Cop (Will The Military Become The Police? - 4).
The previous post in this series is here.