Sunday, October 4, 2015

Proof of Concept - 4

Fig. 1 SQL query of PSMSL "stations" table
The post about a blogger who imagined sea level fall (SLF) because he has beach front property got me to thinking about sea level rise (SLR) and SLF in Australia (Agnotology: The Surge - 18).

The (now 20) stations which qualify for serious sea level change (SLC) consideration, wrap all around the Australian continent (Fig. 2).
Fig. 2  Stations all around

I don't include stations in Tasmania, because it is not part of the Australian mainland continent, even though Tasmania does have some good tide gauge stations.

The SQL query (Fig. 1) shows the current usable stations and their locations.

What was interesting after checking them out, is that only one station (Booby Island) registered SLF in its records, however, after looking at its data in my possession it became clear that it is not a valid station because there are too many -9999 entries in its record (it has less than 30 years of valid records).

I marked "Booby Island" as "don't use," which means that I set the "flag" field / column to 'Z' (notice that the SQL query excludes rows where the flag field is 'Z').

Booby Island must be a nasty place for weather, to give the tide gauge such a hard time.

Fig. 3  SLF locations (dark blue)
Anyway, all the other valid Australian stations have an SLR condition of varying degrees (various quantities of millimeters of SLR).

That is not contrary to the SLF indicated by the graphics shown by Dr. Mitrovica (Fig. 3).

Australia is always in an SLR status in all three scenarios.

The closest to SLF we see on those graphics is in the southern part of Australia (not the far north where Booby Island is located).

The hinge point gets closest to Australia under the conditions portrayed in the top graphic in Fig. 3, which shows Antarctica ice mass / gravity loss conditions, but, even in that scenario the hinge point is way south of Australia (Australia receives varying degrees of SLR as one proceeds north, but receives no SLF).

Our attitude towards global warming induced climate change can get away from us at times, so that, rather than sticking with the facts of science, we allow deep, subconscious fear circuits to skew reality and take us into an imaginary world (Agnotology: The Surge - 18).

That always proves disastrous, but reality will sometimes pull through (stick with reality).

My advice to Australians with property on the shoreline:
join the KEEP IT IN THE GROUND movement (e.g. LINGO), rather than the psychologically impaired denial movement.
The previous post in this series is here:

Saturday, October 3, 2015

Agnotology: The Surge - 18

Fig. 1 Swapping the signs is not a solution
Sea level change (SLC) is one area where those who do not look deep enough will add to the fantasy most people are currently swayed by.

Australians are no exception to the myths any more than people elsewhere are.

A post by an Australian blogger reveals the problems caused by shallow analysis (Sydney and Melbourne tide gauges show downward trend!).

Agnotology allows the erroneous meme to propagate (Climate Common Sense: Sydney and Melbourne tide gauges show downward trend!, Global warming: Australia is Sinking!).

What generated the falsehood in the first place was an improper technique:
Horrified, as I live on the coast I thought I would check the BOM tide gauges at Sydney's Botany Bay and Melbourne's Port Lonsdale to see
Fig. 2 PSMSL Graph For Sydney
how the alarmist predictions were faring at Australia's two largest cities.

Botany Bay had a broken record so I used the last 12 years with a contiguous set of readings and found the mean tide levels had actually fallen over the period. This is good news for Tim Flannery who has a waterfront home in the area.
(Sydney and Melbourne tide gauges show downward trend!, emphasis added). Rule Number One is to "use a reliable tide gauge station" that has "at least 30 years" of reliable data records.

Of the 81 Australian (AUS) tide gauge stations registered at PSMSL (List of Stations), I only use the 21 which qualify by being in accord with Rule Number One (60 do not qualify).

 "Botany Bay", allegedly used by the Australian blogger, doesn't even appear on the station list of PSMSL (which is a sure sign that any data from there is spurious).

Fig. 3
A good tide gauge station in Sydney is shown in Fig. 2 (link to PSMSL page also provided).

It is the Fort Denison 2 station where records are available from 1915 to 2014.

They show 7011 RLR millimeters in 1915 and 7171 RLR millimeters in 2014, indicating sea level rise (SLR) at this time.
Fig. 4

In Fig. 3 another Australian location, Victoria, is shown with SLR, and Fig. 4 shows another Australian location, New Castle V, which has a close latitude and longitude to the Sydney staton (Fig. 2).

It also shows a clear SLR scenario, so I fear what would happen if the Australian blogger were to represent to someone he was selling his house to that "no worries, the sea level here in Sydney is falling lower and lower as the years go by."

His blog is a record that he believes it and has even told "Tim Flannery" the good news about his reading of a tide gauge that is not one the reputable site PSMSL.

Misrepresentation is generally actionable in common law countries:
Misrepresentation is the giving of false information by one party (or her or his agent) to the other before the contract is made, which induces them to make the contract. If you make a contract in reliance on a misrepresentation and suffer loss as a result, you can cancel the contract or claim damages.
(Australian Contract Law, cf. Misleading or Deceptive Conduct). Denialism is one thing but when a person imposes it on others, in some situations there can be legal issues.

The previous post in this series is here.

Thursday, October 1, 2015

New Type of SLC Detection Model - 6

Fig. 1 a section of the "np" zone
Today I want to discuss some strange tide gauge data from the "np," or north polar zone.

It could mean that gravity loss is like ice sheet loss in the sense that it does not take place uniformly.

For example, if a section of an ice sheet melts or calves into the sea in one area of the ice sheet, that mostly affects the gravity in that area.

Fig. 2 red square is where history/future meet
The example of that scenario I want to talk about today, is the tide gauge in  Reykjavik, Iceland.

First, notice the "np" area east of Greenland, and mostly north of Europe (Fig. 1).

Then glance at the graphs one would likely expect for tide gauges in the "np" zone (Fig. 2 - Fig. 5).
Fig. 3
 These are at latitudes and longitudes in the "np" zone, specifically they generally lie to the north of Europe in Norwegian areas. 
Fig. 4

Areas where sea level fall (SLF) is expected as the Greenland ice sheet melts and calves into the sea.

That notion is shown in Fig. 7 where the ice-sheet-mass loss leads to SLF (dark blue area around Greenland).

But, we must not forget that these are not single events taking place in a vacuum.

Fig. 5
No, all of the ice sheets are melting, calving, and having their own particular impact on sea level change (SLC), whether their impact is sea level rise (SLR), or is SLF instead.

I think the jaggedness of the graph lines is indicative of the push and pull, ebb and flow, between and among the different ice sheet locations.

The big players are, of course, Greenland and Antarctica, however, yesterday we saw that local ice caps and glaciers in Alaska have a large impact on SLC there, even dominating the picture.

That scenario is also likely happening in some of the other ice cap and glacier areas in the "np" zone.

If you will notice Fig. 8, and focus on the bottom graphic, it displays several similar locations for Glacier Bay type activity.
Fig. 6

One such area is Svalbard (Wikipedia), another is Iceland (Wikipedia), and yet another is Norway (Wikipedia).

The take-home from this is "be careful to consider all of the influences" in areas where several local contributors are involved.

Greenland and Antarctica are not the only games in town when we look at local or regional areas.

Again, that was made clear yesterday, in the post showing the strong influence of a local cryosphere area on both SLF and SLR (Proof of Concept - 3).

Fig. 7
Now, with that in mind let's talk about Reykjavik (Fig. 6), noticing first that the red square separates the historical, official record from the software model that projects a conservative future SLC ("Dredd's IPCC clone").

(Probably a wrong projection.)

It is in an area where Greenland, Norway, Svalbard, and its own ice cap and glaciers exert influence.

I put a blue line on the track which begins at the year 1957, where the RLR millimeter scale level was 6996, and extended it over to 1995, when the sea level was 7000 (4 millimeter difference).

I drew another line at the 2014 red square, where the history of that tide gauge ends in this graph, then over to where the millimeter level is 7153 (153 millimeters difference, which is ~4.5 inches).

Contrast that with Skagway's ~4 feet of SLF (Proof of Concept - 3) and we can say that on the local scene, things happen very differently in locations with different significant influences.

Reykjavik is surrounded by influences coming from the north, south, east, and west.

Its jagged and abrupt historical track is indicative of a volatile area:
Michael Mann of Penn State and Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute
Fig. 8
for Climate Impact Research say that to see a pattern like this, in an otherwise record hot year, is a sign that the Atlantic ocean’s so-called “meridional overturning circulation” or AMOC — which is driven by differences in ocean temperature and salinity in the North Atlantic — may be slowing down.

Indeed, they say this fits nicely with a study they published earlier this year, which found an “exceptional” slowdown in the circulation over the course of the last century, and suggested that the dramatic melting of Greenland, by injecting large volumes of freshwater into the ocean, may be the cause.

So are they right?
(Everything you need to know about the surprisingly cold ‘blob’ in the North Atlantic ocean). There is still some uncertainty about the cause or causes of the cold blob up there near the tip of Greenland, south of Reykjavik.

Currents and water temperature also have an effect on SLC, so this current Reykjavik anomaly needs to be looked at from several angles.

The previous post in this series is here.