LieGate - 2

Welcome to It Can Happen Here

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Another danger is lurking besides the current viral pandemic case load increases, and it is directly related to it.

The danger is that millions of people may not be able to vote because they will be homeless and/or out of work.

They may become so stressed that voting will be the last thing on their mind:

20 Million Renters Are at Risk of Eviction; Policymakers Must Act Now to Mitigate Widespread Hardship

"Across the country, renters and tenants advocates are sounding the alarm about the coming eviction crisis, referring to it as an avalanche or tsunami. Over the past five months, more than 44 million Americans have filed for unemployment amid the COVID-19 pandemic. As the recession continues, economic stimulus payments are spent, and expanded Unemployment Insurance expires, many of these displaced workers will be unable to make housing payments.

Mass evictions would be a disaster. For both individuals and families, evictions result in severe harm; when they become widespread, there are also significant consequences for entire communities and even the speed of economic recovery. Policymakers are actively seeking solutions, but it is difficult to prepare without knowing the size of the problem.

The COVID-19 Eviction Defense Project (CEDP) was formed to solve that problem. It is a coalition of economic researchers and legal experts who developed a model to estimate eviction risk nationally and at the state level. The disturbing result: 19 to 23 million, or one in five of the 110 million Americans who live in renter households, are at risk of eviction by September 30, 2020."

(The Aspen Institute). It may be bad for homeowners too in the sense of foreclosures, depending on the governments' (federal and state) response.

The greatest threat to avoiding this potential catastrophe is the despotic minority (How To Identify The Despotic Minority, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14).

They are cruel enough to lock up children and rip them from the arms of their parents, cruel enough to weakly respond to the Covid-19 crisis, and cruel enough to encourage stress syndrome conditions then suppress the vote.

It can happen here, so beware because forewarned can be forearmed.

The previous post in this series is here.

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Seaports With Sea Level Change - 9

Ports Are Ports

I. Review

Regular readers know that Dredd Blog has considered, for a number of years, the vulnerability of world seaports to sea level change in terms of both sea level fall and sea level rise (e.g. "The artist's painting, above, shows that the major ports would be destroyed ultimately, but will be damaged well before they become useless", Will This Float Your Boat?, May 4, 2011; Seaports With Sea Level Change, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).

That reality is finding its way into the scientific literature:

"Ports are an important economic actor—at local, national, and international scales—that have been identified as being vulnerable to future changes to the climate. This paper details the findings from an international review of state‐of‐the‐art knowledge concerning climate risks, and adaptation responses, for ports and their supply chains. Evidence from both academic and gray literature indicates that there has already been major damage and disruption to ports across the world from climate‐related hazards and that such impacts are projected to increase in the years and decades to come. Findings indicate that while a substantial—and growing—body of scientific evidence on coastal risks and potential adaptation options is acting as a stimulus for port authorities to explicitly consider the risks for their assets and operations, only a notable few [port authorities] have actually made the next step toward implementing adaptation strategies. This paper concludes by putting forward constructive recommendations for the sector and suggestions for research to address remaining knowledge gaps. It emphasizes a call for collaboration between the research and practice communities, as well as the need to engage a broad range of stakeholders in the adaptation planning process."

(Implications of climate change for shipping, 2018, emphasis added). Dredd Blog continues to produce material mentioned in that paper as "gray literature" (a.k.a. grey literature) as a public service (What is Grey Literature?, Gray Literature).

The corporate media on the other hand doesn't cover this issue very much, if at all, which may be a factor in the ongoing negligence or denial by port authorities.

The alt-right wing of the corporate media spends more time denying these issues than the more responsible journalists spend reporting them (While we fixate on coronavirus, Earth is hurtling towards a catastrophe worse than the dinosaur extinction).

II. Today's Post

Today's post is an update using the most recent Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) dataset, as of April 6 this year (PSMSL Data Page).

The graph data is presented by PSMSL "Coastline code" sequence only (when there are two graphs of the same Coastline Code, one is sea level fall, the other is sea level rise (the sea level fall and rise graphs are from different WOD zones in the same Coastline Code location ... see HTML appendices).

The HTML and graph beginning and ending years and amounts are not in strict syncronization because they are done by two different modules.

I am finishing up on a program that solves that, but remember that the graphs are for showing the trends in a coastal area, while the HTML files are to provide details of a different sort.

The HTML-format data is alphabetized by Country name first and Coastline code second.

The HTML table menu below gives you a one click trip to appendices which have the data laid out for your perusal.

The links are alphabetical (e.g. countries with names beginning with an "A" are in the "A-C" appendices, countries with names beginning with a "U" are in the "U-Z" appendices, etc.):

Single-Coastline Countries	Multi-Coastline Countries	Graphs of those Countries
Appendix: A - C	Appendix: A - C	Appendix: A - C
Appendix: D - G	Appendix: D - G	Appendix: D - G
Appendix: H - L	Appendix: H - L	Appendix: H - L
Appendix: M - O	Appendix: M - O	Appendix: M - O
Appendix: P - T	Appendix: P - T	Appendix: P - T
Appendix: U - Z	Appendix: U -Z	Appendix: U -Z

III. Closing Comments

Long live grey/gray literature.

This is a public service of Dredd Blog.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

The Peak Of The Oil Wars - 15

Feel your inner clock

I. Ancient History

Is 'oil wars' an ancient concept or is it just that we are not informed about 'oil wars' any more?

In this series that question has been asked and answered (The Peak Of The Oil Wars, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14).

The way it began is something like this:

Long before politicians mewled helplessly about the power of “Big Oil”, carbon-based fuels were shaping our very political, legal, intellectual, and physical structures.
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For instance, the invasion of Iraq in 2003 was a pivotal moment in America’s strategic outlook. America, a global hegemon whose empire was weakening, seized the second largest oil deposits in the world as a way of preventing its economic and political decline.
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The last declining global hegemon, Great Britain, also engaged in a brutal and highly controversial British occupation of Iraq, in the 1920s, pressed aggressively by the well-known British conservative, Winston Churchill.
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From the moment he arrived at the Admiralty, a young man of destiny, Churchill started to prepare the fleet for the Battle of Armageddon he believed was inevitable.
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Then, in 1911, the German Kaiser provoked the Agadir crisis ... Churchill went to the Admiralty and his outlook transformed. He was immediately confronted with the decisive question: to convert the navy from coal to oil ... the "fateful plunge" was made ... in April 1912 ... five oil-burning battleships were approved.
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Britain was well supplied with coal [but not oil]. It was the Royal Navy which was the impetus for the development of the oil industry in Britain. The problem was supply and the security of that supply. Initially, the British government purchased shares in the Anglo-Persian Oil Company, subsequently, British Petroleum [BP].
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Then, to prevent further disruptions, Britain enmeshed itself ever more deeply in the Middle East, working to install new shahs in Iran and carve Iraq out of the collapsing Ottoman Empire.

Churchill fired the starting gun, but all of the Western powers joined the race to control Middle Eastern oil.

(The Universal Smedley - 2). Strange beliefs mixed with technology and fossil fuels - particularly their location, is part and parcel of the real story.

So is foreign policy inspired by fossil fuels:

John D. Rockefeller, in his 1909 Random Reminiscences of Men and Events, recalled, "One of our greatest helpers has been the State Department. Our ambassadors and ministers and consuls have aided to push our way into new markets in the utmost corners of the world." But he left out a key explanation for the government's interest. Standard Oil was the biggest U.S. company, putting a hundred ships to sea, buying and selling oil in Latin America, Germany, and the Far East. It also operated a global intelligence system. "By 1885," according to one historian, "seventy percent of the Standard's business was overseas and it had its own network of agents through the world, and its own espionage service, to forestall the initiatives of rival companies or governments."
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"The enemy aggressor is always pursuing a course of larceny, murder, rapine and barbarism. We are always moving forward with high mission, a destiny imposed by the Deity to regenerate our victims, while incidentally capturing their markets; to civilise savage and senile and paranoid peoples, while blundering accidentally into their oil wells or metal mines."

(The Authoritarianism of Climate Change). That was then perhaps, but is it still like that now?

II. Modern History

Once upon a time in Northern Iraq Kurds had hope of becoming oil-rich by controlling the oil rich areas around Kirkuk, but that did not pan out because the U.S. said so (Yes, Donald Trump Dumped the Kurds (And We Should Not Be Shocked)).

Meanwhile in Syria, oil ("the devil's excrement") was warping minds there (Syrian Oil, and… what caused the war?).

Then, once upon a time in N. Syria Kurds had hope of becoming oil-rich but ISIS controlled N. Syria where most of the Syrian oil is located.

So war broke out between the Kurds and ISIS (Control of Syrian Oil Fuels War Between Kurds and Islamic State).

The Syrian Kurds won that oil war (Kurds control 65 to 70% of Syrian Oil).

Now the Turks evidently want Syria’s Oil:

Even before the war, Syria was only a modest producer of oil and gas, averaging 400,000 barrels per day between 2008-2010, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, most of it exported to Europe and Turkey. Proven reserves stood at 2.5 billion barrels as of January 2013, according to estimates in the Oil & Gas Journal. That’s dwarfed by neighboring Iraq’s 145 billion barrels. Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Chevron Corp., and Total SA were among companies working in ventures with the state-run Syrian Petroleum Co. before the war. Most of Syria’s major oil assets are located in the Kurdish-controlled northeast. Exploration could also lead to the discovery of off-shore gas reserves given that giant deposits were found in Mediterranean waters further south near Egypt, Israel and Cyprus.

(Washington Post). As the beat goes on:

Turkish invasion could also open the door for Russian and Syrian forces to invade SDF territory from the west, or else prompt the SDF to form an alliance with the Assad regime and its allies to protect the mostly Kurdish force from Turkey’s advance. That could increase the influence of Assad’s Russian and Iranian partners in the region and grant them access to north-east Syria’s lucrative oil fields.

(Guardian).

Who knows what else is involved?

Certainly not the U.S. president who said he was mad at Kurds for selling oil to Iran:

During a cabinet meeting on Wednesday, Trump said he was not happy that the Kurds are selling oil to Iran.

“I didn’t like the fact that [the Kurds] are selling the small oil that they have to Iran, and we asked them not to do it,” the US president stated.

(Kurdistan24 News). And so it goes.

III. Closing Comments

What we see in headlines in daily news papers and on TV and social media is the endless oil wars that came with the devil's excrement (Iran says missiles strike its oil tanker off Saudi Arabia).

They will reach their peak when they, the oil wars, go nuclear (The Doomsday Clock).

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

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The Peak Of The Oil Wars - 14

Climate Week

This Dredd Blog series began nine years ago (The Peak Of The Oil Wars, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13).

Now, the better part of a decade later, it seems official in some circles that an act of oil-war broke out when half of Saudi Arabia's ability to produce the crude was bombed out of existence this week:

"The attack on Saudi oil facilities is the latest, most violent, example of an escalating series of gambits by rival powers in the Gulf aimed at achieving their objectives by all measures short of all-out war.

But the chances of avoiding such a devastating conflict diminish each time the stakes are raised.

Iran has denied responsibility for the attack on an oil field and refining facility, while the US, Saudi Arabia and their allies have hesitated over the geographical origin of the airstrikes. The size and sophistication of the operation however points to a state actor, and it fits a pattern in recent months of increasingly bold Iranian moves intended to raise the costs of the US campaign of maximum pressure and the Saudi war in Yemen.

Until now, Iranian harassment of oil tankers travelling through the strait of Hormuz and the downing of a US surveillance drone have appeared calibrated to stop short of triggering a military response. If Iran is indeed behind Saturday’s strikes, it marks a significant step towards more reckless action by Tehran, possibly emboldened by the departure of Donald Trump’s national security adviser, John Bolton, and the desperation of Iran’s economic plight.

“What is clear is that the strategy of bombing Yemenis and starving Iranians into submission is more likely to backfire than bring the desired results,” said Ali Vaez, an Iran expert at the International Crisis Group. “Iran has less to lose and is less risk-averse.”

Trump’s tweet about being “locked and loaded” echoed his claim the US was “cocked and loaded” in response to the downing of a US drone in June. But having agreed to launch retaliatory missile strikes then, Trump changed his mind, saying the risk of casualties made it a disproportionate response.
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'If they [Saudi's] retaliate, the Iranians would have to retaliate even more. And we are just in an inertia of war,' Seznec said. 'We really are in that situation right now and what’s so scary is that people all agree that this is not good for anybody. But there is nobody who can stop it.'”

(Saudi oil attack signals an escalating crisis, emphasis added). Don't forget the power of love ... oh yeah ... not much love between the Saudis and Iranians, so what about a threesome with The Stable Genius lover-boy at the helm?

At this point he has been jilted, and so, like LBJ who said "let us continyah to continyah" the Lover Boy in chief will continue sanctions as a remedy.

Some say that his withdrawal from the agreement (among the US and its allies) with Iran over nuclear issues, and replacement of the agreement with increasingly aggressive sanctions is what caused this oil-war in the first place.

The fact that this oil-war is raising oil prices gives Oil-Qaeda pause, so perhaps we should keep our attention on "there is nobody who can stop it."

We shall see (If the world ran on sun, it wouldn’t fight over oil) if Climate Week will overcome oil century (The Universal Smedley - 2).

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

Economic War Of The Pacific - 7

Who knew?

One president ago I began to talk about an economic war that was "brewing" (Economic War Of The Pacific, 2009).

The backdrop of that alleged economic war was the "petro dollar" and/or "reserve currency" (First Shots Fired In The Currency Wars, 2, 3, 4; cf. Economic War Of The Pacific, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).

The current president is making a mockery of US foreign relations and economic policies which fits in with the coming demise of the dollar as the "petro dollar" or "reserve currency" (Trump’s Economic Message Doesn’t Reassure Anyone, New data challenges Trump's economic narrative).

His incompetence, dishonesty, cluelessness, child abuse, and strange bedfellow politics lend a hand to those who want their nation's currency to become the world currency by replacing the US dollar (Phase Two of the Currency Wars?, Phase Three Of The Currency Wars?, Phase Four Of The Currency Wars?).

The previous post in this series is here.

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The Common Good - 12

Not Common Enough?

The fundamental struggle which "groups" (nations, civilizations) must contend with in order to perpetuate themselves is the tension between the common good and the common bad.

That dynamic is discussed in two series here on Dredd Blog (The Common Good, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11; How To Identify The Despotic Minority, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11).

The great historians have identified the issue as an existential one:

But always TCS ["The Creep State"] is primarily the population segment diagnosed as a despotic minority which the once most-often-quoted historian, Toynbee, fingered as one of the members of the trinity of extinction that he found in all civilizations that were about to become very successful at becoming extinct:

That something is the dementia that produces and ends up in suicide:

"In other words, a society does not ever die 'from natural causes', but always dies from suicide or murder --- and nearly always from the former, as this chapter has shown."

(A Study of History, by Arnold J. Toynbee). There is no cure for the final symptom of that group dementia, there is only prevention by way of avoiding it altogether in the first place.

The components of that group dementia were pointed out in an encyclopedia piece concerning that historian quoted above:

"In the Study Toynbee examined the rise and fall of 26 civilizations in the course of human history, and he concluded that they rose by responding successfully to challenges under the leadership of creative minorities composed of elite leaders. Civilizations declined when their leaders stopped responding creatively, and the civilizations then sank owing to the sins of nationalism, militarism, and the tyranny of a despotic minority" ...

(Encyclopedia Britannica, emphasis added). The show stopper, in terms of remedy, in this type of group dementia is that it is a contagious dementia.

(Etiology of Social Dementia - 18). That particular "minority" is not a racial or ethnic minority, rather, it is primarily composed of a destructive suicidal trance (Choose Your Trances Carefully, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).

(Arrested Development: The Creep State). It seems that just about everyone in the world who is aware of current events knows that the USA is awash in that tentative situation.

Nations who are being overcome by the tyranny of a despotic minority begin to develop various outbreaks of cruelty and dishonesty within.

For example, horrific mistreatment of persecuted people seeking asylum (Asylum Officers: Trump's 'Remain In Mexico' Policy Is Against 'Moral Fabric' Of U.S.).

The majority is taken aback at first, not realizing the gravity of the situation, and therefore they focus on the illusionary, vain words "bipartisanship", "consensus", and the like.

That is, the majority does not realize that the despotic minority is only interested in capitulation from "the other" party, group, race, or religion.

The dynamic to focus on is that those "sins" ("the civilizations then sank owing to the sins of nationalism, militarism, and the tyranny of a despotic minority") are infectious and unlikely to be seen as a cultural disease.

They are eventually seen as virtues.

Once the majority realizes the mistake they have made, historically it is too late.

The common bad develops and the civilization commits suicide (fades away as a nation or civilization).

The previous post in this series is here.

Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization - 7

Common Problems

I. Problems, What Problems?

Even without considering sea level change (SLC) problems, seaports currently have a plethora of challenges.

Here are a few indications of the types of challenges they face today:

"Ports play a critical role in the development of many countries. They represent a country’s national heritage, culture, and local commercial attitudes. Simply put, ports are the gate ways for trade. Unfortunately, despite the rapid globalization and modernization, most ports are not as efficient as they should be and are becoming barriers to international trade.

If you are a keen follower of emerging trends, you will note that most ports are plagued with problems like clearance delays, inadequate investments, captivity issues, increased freight rates, lack of effective strategies, and inappropriate international mandates.

What is causing all these challenges?" (Challenges Facing Ports).

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"Containerization has consequently become a fundamental function of global port operations and has changed the structure and configuration of port terminals that tend to occupy more space."
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"As terminals, ports handle the largest amounts of freight, more than any other types of terminals combined. To handle this freight, port infrastructures jointly have to accommodate transshipment activities both on ships and inland and thus facilitate convergence between land transport and maritime systems. In many parts of the world, ports are the points of convergence from which inland transport systems, particularly rail, were laid. Most ports, especially those that are ancient, owe their initial emergence to their site as the great majority of harbors are taking advantage of a natural coastline or a natural site along a river. Many port sites are constrained by:

Maritime access, which refers to the physical capacity of the site to accommodate ship operations. It includes the tidal range, which is the difference between the high and low tide, as normal ship operations cannot handle variations [between high and low tide] of more than 3 meters.
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Maritime interface. Indicates the amount of space that is available to support maritime access, namely the amount of shoreline that has good maritime access. This attribute is very important since ports are linear entities. Even if a port site has an excellent maritime access, namely deep water waterways, there may not be enough land available to guarantee its future development and expansion.
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Infrastructures and equipment. The site, to be efficiently used, must have infrastructures such as piers, basins, stacking or storage areas, warehouses, and equipment such as cranes, all of which involving high levels of capital investment. In turn, these infrastructures consume land which must be available to insure port expansion. Keeping up with the investment requirements of modern port operations has become a challenge for many ports, particularly in light of containerization which requires substantial amounts of terminal space to operate. Modern container terminals rely on an unique array of infrastructure, including portainers, stacking yards serviced by gantry cranes and the vehicles used to move containers around the terminal, such as straddle carriers.
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Land access. Access from the port to industrial complexes and markets insure its growth and importance. This requires efficient inland distribution systems, such as fluvial, rail (mainly for containers) and road transportation. The land access to ports located in densely populated areas is facing increasing congestion." (The Geography of Transport Systems).

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"The start of 2019 is sending signals that we may have slower trade growth than anticipated, presenting challenges to all. The National Retail Federation says it expects a decline in year-over-year growth, and the World Bank is sending signals that the global economy is slowing, with China leading the way.

This isn’t great news for any sector of global trade. Carriers are already smarting from a less-than-spectacular 2018 and face increased capacity being delivered in 2019. Shippers, some of whom felt the sting of unusually high spot market rates during the last couple of months of 2018, face what could be increased tariffs after March 1 when the US and China end their trade talks. Carriers also are seeking increased rates and anticipate a jump in fuel costs related to the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO’s) low-sulfur fuel mandate that will take effect Jan. 1, 2020.

Balancing these conditions will be a challenge to all involved in ocean shipping, with shippers and carriers working on plans to keep their economic equilibrium, trying to meet budgets most set months ago before the unfavorable news of recent events.

Some of the drama started playing out in December as carriers met with larger shippers to begin the 2019-2020 contract negotiations. Carriers must get back on track to make money as they did in 2017 after six years of losses, having failed to do so in 2018 because of decisions made early in the year, decisions that will impact them through April.

By managing capacity, they were able to recover a bit in the spot market late in 2018. Carriers also caught a break with oil prices declining in late 2018. But the larger shippers have a deal in hand lasting almost four more months, and while they recognize conditions better than most, they aren’t in a mood to just accept increases because carriers aren’t making money.

So negotiations for the 2019-2020 contracts will be difficult. Carriers were able to get spot rates up by more than double some of the service contract levels. But facing the large service contract shippers who have low rates and asking for increases has never been an easy task for carriers; volumes available seem to bring out a gift-giving reaction." (Container challenges of 2019 to echo years past)

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(emphasis added). The day to day economic, legal, contract negotiation, and geographical problems alone are substantial,  but adding the existential problem of SLC is likely to be overwhelming.

II. Countries & Seaports Impacted

Regular readers will know that previous Dredd Blog posts, from at least February of 2010, have listed countries and seaports that are impacted by SLC (Nation Building - The Will Of The Wind, Will This Float Your Boat - 3; Countries With Sea Level Change, 2, 3; Seaports With Sea Level Change, 2; The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11).

The problems that arise when engineers contemplate elevating seaports several meters while trying to do business as usual is only exceeded by the problems that arise if they do not respond to the existential threat of SLC.

The scientific research has not been adequate enough to support robust engineering efforts or robust engineering solutions:

"This reality means society needs to think about climate change in different ways than the past, by focusing on reducing the risk of negative effects. And speaking as a climate scientist, I recognize that climate science research, too, has to change.

Historically, climate science has been primarily curiosity-driven – scientists seeking fundamental understanding of the way our planet works because of the inherent interest in the problem.

Now it’s time for the climate science research enterprise to adopt an expanded approach, one that focuses heavily on integrating fundamental science inquiry with risk management.
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This long-term, iterative process is a break with current practices. It requires sustained relationships that are not a good fit for much of the academic scientific enterprise, which is driven by curious individuals and funded by short-term grants.

There are signs, though, that climate scientists are getting out of the ivory tower and taking a different approach to research."

(Climate research needs to change, Bob Kopp, emphasis added). The existence of civilization as we know it really is at stake.

III. Closing Question

What level of catastrophe will it take for the willingly blind to see?

Refugee?

The previous post in this series is here.

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How To Identify The Despotic Minority - 2

The first post in this series identified the hate of the press as a "DNA  marker" of the despotic minority (How To Identify The Despotic Minority).

The second "DNA marker" I want to point out today is the hate of the common good.

The posts in another Dredd Blog series have pointed out another one of the concepts held by the enemies of the common good (The Common Good, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11).

Those enemies have a basic narcissistic personality disorder that prevents them from having sufficient care for the welfare of others.

In our modern times this problematic reality has engendered the realm of psychology and a discipline that has labored to understand and treat it (Narcissistic Personality Disorder).

That is beneficial because hatred of the common good is not something to toy around with.

Historically, the despotic minority has metastasized into the greatest enemy of the common good:

A despotic minority is an alien ideology within a free constitutional society.

Once that aspect of a culture becomes hooked up with "nationalism" and "militarism" that culture's "goose is cooked" as the saying goes:

History told us this was going to happen:

But always TCS is primarily the population segment diagnosed as a despotic minority which the once most-often-quoted historian, Toynbee, fingered as one of the members of the trinity of extinction that he found in all civilizations that were about to become very successful at becoming extinct:

That something is the dementia that produces and ends up in suicide:

"In other words, a society does not ever die 'from natural causes', but always dies from suicide or murder --- and nearly always from the former, as this chapter has shown."

(A Study of History, by Arnold J. Toynbee). There is no cure for the final symptom of that group dementia, there is only prevention by way of avoiding it altogether in the first place.

The components of that group dementia were pointed out in an encyclopedia piece concerning that historian quoted above:

"In the Study Toynbee examined the rise and fall of 26 civilizations in the course of human history, and he concluded that they rose by responding successfully to challenges under the leadership of creative minorities composed of elite leaders. Civilizations declined when their leaders stopped responding creatively, and the civilizations then sank owing to the sins of nationalism, militarism, and the tyranny of a despotic minority. Unlike Spengler in his The Decline of the West, Toynbee did not regard the death of a civilization as inevitable, for it may or may not continue to respond to successive challenges. Unlike Karl Marx, he saw history as shaped by spiritual, not economic forces" ...

(Encyclopedia Britannica, emphasis added). The show stopper, in terms of remedy, in this type of group dementia is that it is a contagious dementia.

(Etiology of Social Dementia - 18). That particular "minority" is not a racial or ethnic minority, rather, it is primarily composed of a destructive suicidal trance (Choose Your Trances Carefully, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).

(Arrested Development: The Creep State). Our culture is composed, now, of the toxins of power that habitually destroy nations and civilizations (Hypothesis: The Cultural Amygdala - 2).

(When You Are Governed By Psychopaths - 8). Voting politicians out of office, because they cater to the despotic minority, is not enough.

(How To Identify The Despotic Minority). In the U.S.eh? the common good is now slanderously and pejoratively called "socialism" by the despotic minority.

The term "socialism" has been ideologically poisoned by members of the despotic minority in order to serve their own selfish purposes (No, governor, the common good is not ...).

In healthy societies, the common good has a good reputation:

"In ordinary political discourse, the “common good” refers to those facilities—whether material, cultural or institutional—that the members of a community provide to all members in order to fulfill a relational obligation they all have to care for certain interests that they have in common. Some canonical examples of the common good in a modern liberal democracy include: the road system; public parks; police protection and public safety; courts and the judicial system; public schools; museums and cultural institutions; public transportation; civil liberties, such as the freedom of speech and the freedom of association; the system of property; clean air and clean water; and national defense. The term itself may refer either to the interests that members have in common or to the facilities that serve common interests. For example, people may say, “the new public library will serve the common good” or “the public library is part of the common good”.

As a philosophical concept, the common good is best understood as part of an encompassing model for practical reasoning among the members of a political community. The model takes for granted that citizens stand in a “political” or “civic” relationship with one another and that this relationship requires them to create and maintain certain facilities on the grounds that these facilities serve certain common interests. The relevant facilities and interests together constitute the common good and serve as a shared standpoint for political deliberation. When citizens face various questions about legislation, public policy or social responsibility, they resolve these questions by appeal to a conception of the relevant facilities and the relevant interests. That is, they argue about what facilities have a special claim on their attention, how they should expand, contract or maintain existing facilities, and what facilities they should design and build in the future.

The common good is an important concept in political philosophy because it plays a central role in philosophical reflection about the public and private dimensions of social life."

(Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, emphasis added). Another name for the common good is "the general welfare" as quoted in the Preamble.

When government loses the concept of the common good it begins a trek on the long road of degeneracy, and fosters the metastasizing of the despotic minority.

The despotic minority infects a number of citizens until the point is reached when history repeats itself:

"In other words, a society does not ever die 'from natural causes', but always dies from suicide or murder --- and nearly always from the former, as this chapter has shown."

(A Study of History, by Arnold J. Toynbee). One of the final series of suicidal events on the downward spiral is the loss of freedom due to the trance of militarism ("No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare" - James Madison).

Freedom declines as neo-feudalism increases (American Feudalism, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11) until a full blown Plutocracy results (The Homeland: Big Brother Plutonomy, 2, 3, 4, 8).

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

First Shots Fired In The Currency Wars - 4

Read my lips No New Peace

This series is about a strategic advantage in one subcategory of the oil wars (First Shots Fired In The Currency Wars, 2, 3).

I started this series about this time of year in 2009.

The dangers inherent in the struggles for the substantial sources of oil, as suicidal as they may be, continue unabated in our modern world today, but the difference today is that we have a president who asks "why can't we use nukes?" and a national "security" head who believes in war first, questions later (Five things to know about new Trump adviser John Bolton).

The danger arising is, in large part, about the "petro dollar" which is a subject that Americans pay too little attention to:

"On March 26 China will finally launch a yuan-dominated oil futures contract. Over the last decade there have been a number of “false-starts,” but this time the contract has gotten approval from China’s State Council.

With that approval, the “petroyuan” will become real and China will set out to challenge the “petrodollar” for dominance. Adam Levinson, managing partner and chief investment officer at hedge fund manager Graticule Asset Management Asia (GAMA), already warned last year that China launching a yuan-denominated oil futures contract will shock those investors who have not been paying attention.

This could be a death blow for an already weakening U.S. dollar, and the rise of the yuan as the dominant world currency."

(China Prepares Death Blow To The Dollar). The current mood with Russia and its petro dollar viewpoint are not encouraging:

"Russia pulls out of the petrodollar

In addition to cutting off natural gas supplies to Europe, Russia has also "just pulled itself out of the petrodollar," reports Zero Hedge.

The story quotes Bloomberg.com stating that Russia "may unseal its $88 billion Reserve Fund and convert some of its foreign-currency holdings into ruble."

This is further explained by Mac Slavo at SHTFplan.com who explains, "What we are seeing are the strategic moves that will eventually catalyze the next great war. And make no mistake, this is exactly what's in store for the world should these escalations continue." - Natural News

(The Peak Of The Oil Wars - 12). Things are looking war-ish, but that is not the initial takeaway:

"The important takeaway is that China has created the first unassailable and above-ground challenge to the petro-dollar oil trade. To break the world’s use of the dollar as the sole settlement currency for oil required the right contract issued by a country the U.S. can’t immediately invade and conduct a regime change operation in – like in Iraq and Libya.

Russia wins here because now there is a path for its Urals grade to become an international benchmark like WTI and Brent. And since Gazprom prefers to price its long-term gas contracts based on underlying oil prices rather than the more volatile natural gas price, this is also a win in the long run for them."

(Surging Russian-Chinese Trade Pressures Petrodollar). The aggressive Trump tariffs and building of a warmongering administration lately are additional irritants to those who are marshaling domestic and foreign economic forces against us.

"Why can't we use nukes" was once more obvious than it is now to those who have gone blind:

"The most dangerous of these has barely been reported. A very important study in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, published in March 2017, reveals that the Obama nuclear-weapons-modernization program has increased “the overall killing power of existing US ballistic missile forces by a factor of roughly three—and it creates exactly what one would expect to see, if a nuclear-armed state were planning to have the capacity to fight and win a nuclear war by disarming enemies with a surprise first strike.” As the analysts point out, this new capacity undermines the strategic stability on which human survival depends. And the chilling record of near disaster and reckless behavior of leaders in past years only shows how fragile our survival is. Now this program is being carried forward under Trump. These developments, along with the threat of environmental disaster, cast a dark shadow over everything else—and are barely discussed, while attention is claimed by the performances of the showman at center stage."

(The Nation, emphasis added). This is the "DNA" of the oil wars (The Universal Smedley - 2; The Peak Of The Oil Wars, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13).

The previous post in this series is here.

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The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports - 10

Current Civilization's Endangered Lifeline

The general subject matter of this series took embryonic form in the Dredd Blog series Will This Float Your Boat? in May of 2011.

Eventually some research I did during that series led to the more specific subject matter focus of this series.

That is because, for one thing, I ran across the following statement on a government site:

"By volume, more than 95 percent of U.S. international trade moves through the nation's ports and harbors, with about 50 percent of these goods being hazardous materials." [quoting NOAA 'Ports']

(Will This Float Your Boat - 10; cf Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization). The specific subject matter of this series began several months after I read and posted that quote (about two and a half years ago).

At that time I am sure that the subject matter sounded like science fiction to those who satiate themselves with daily doses of main-stream pabulum.

Those who are even more out of touch with reality, those who would call this subject matter "climate porn," are also incensed by exacting Dredd Blog lab work (Pole Dancing In The Lab).

That could be because this series started with these words:

The business end of the scientific microscope is made of intense efforts to acquire funding.

Which weakens the scientific end of the scientific microscope into timid revelation.

Regular readers know that I have breached subject matter that "typical" (translation: lightweight, timid, and incomplete) analyses of fossil fuel induced global warming induced climate change induced sea level change (SLC)  does not consider.

That subject matter is the vast array of sea ports that unfortunately find themselves placed at the sea level which existed when they were built back in the dark ages.

A sea level which is now "sooooo yesterday."

(The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports). This series never did get any less favorable to those whose minds have been corrupted by fear and its subsequent denial (The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9).

So, they will have to be happy with their own version of Stormy Waters' (a.k.a. Stormy Daniels) version of sea level rise because she loves the preznit bigly like they do (sorta).

Meanwhile, back in the old timer world of science, the big boys are coming around to the subject matter reality:

"There is a general consensus among Earth scientists that melting of land ice greatly contributes to sea-level rise (SLR) and that future warming will exacerbate the risks posed to human civilization." (Abstract)
...
"Our goal is ... to improve our understanding of the connection between global cryospheric changes and [local sea level] at major port cities around the globe." (p.1)

(Should coastal planners have concern...?, emphasis added). That article in Science Advances focuses on the varying degrees of sea level rise at various seaports around the globe, with some ideas, formulas, and tools for calibration and calculation.

Isn't that the nastiest porn ever?

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

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I hereby name the Climate Porn trance "Dido" ... which was the name of the Queen of the sea trade civilization: Phoenicia. She left over internal disagreements to form another sea trade civilization: Carthage. She "went down with the ship" just like those in the climate porn trance will.

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First Shots Fired In The Currency Wars - 3

Fig 1  Trends In Sync

Since 2009 this series, in addition to discussing the history of the "petrodollar," has also considered the future of the U.S. version of the petrodollar (First Shots Fired In The Currency Wars - 2).

It is not surprising that the world's petrodollar, historically, has been the U.S. Dollar ... primarily or in significant part because of the reputation of the U.S.A. in the world community.

A Gallup poll, then, is an indicator that the petrodollar situation is in flux:

"One year into Donald Trump's presidency, the image of U.S. leadership is weaker worldwide than it was under his two predecessors. Median approval

Fig. 2 Trends in Sync

of U.S. leadership across 134 countries and areas stands at a new low of 30%, according to a new Gallup report.

The most recent approval rating, based on Gallup World Poll surveys conducted between March and November last year, is down 18 percentage points from the 48% approval rating in the last year of President Barack Obama's administration, and is four points lower than the previous low of 34% in the last year of President George W. Bush's administration."

(World's Approval of U.S. Leadership Drops to New Low). As goes the reputation so goes the dollar's reputation, and vice versa:

"Just days after China's (denied) threat to slow/stop buying US Treasuries, and just days before the launch of China's petro-yuan futures contract, Germany's central bank confirmed it would include China's Renminbi in its reserves."

(As Petro-Yuan Looms, Bundesbank Adds Renminbi To Currency Reserves). "Make America great again" means something else it would seem.

Incidentally, three petrodollar adversaries ranked top notch in that Gallop Poll, indicating that Trumpism is not working:

"Germany has replaced the U.S. as the top-rated global power in the world. The U.S. is now on nearly even footing with China (31%) and barely more popular than Russia (27%) ..."

(ibid, Gallup Poll). These are sad times for the U.S.A. (whether the 62 some odd million voters who made it so know it or not).

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

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The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan - 8

Skybridge Kapitol: Alternate Infrastructure

I. Background

This series is about a metamorphosis most likely caused by proton tunneling, and about other aspects of the Bob Dylan lyric "the circus is in town" (Desolation Row).

It has long been believed that behavior is genetic, however, that belief is becoming watered down as we learn more about genes:

"In this paper we have pointed out that, since the protons are not classical particles but "wave packets" obeying the laws of modern quantum theory, the genetic code

Alternate Economics

 cannot --in spite of all precautions-- be 100% stable. Due to the quantum-mechanical "tunnel effect," there is always a small but finite probability that the protons will change place, alter the genetic code, and give rise to mutations. This implies also that this transfer of protons over a distance of about 10^-8 cm may be one of the driving forces in the evolution of living organisms on the earth."

(The Uncertain Gene). Even the "selfish gene" hypothesis is being supplanted by the "alternate gene" hypotheses (On The Origin of Genieology) since the discovery of the "only I can do it gene" that was revealed at the Republican alternate science convention in July of 2016 (Only I Can Do It).

Which led to the suspicion that the genieology of the current shapeshifters of Bullshistan may be at work in the current incarnation of "the circus is in town."

A genieology that has led to the revelation of alternate facts, alternate highway 61, alternate politics, alternate misunderestimations, alternate enemies, alternate testimony, and alternate explanations.

II. A Rising Scar

This post is about the advent of Moochifer ("Mooch" for short) and the advent of alternate economics:

"In 2005, [Moochifer] founded SkyBridge Capital, a global alternative investment firm."

(Wikipedia, emphasis added). That link explains how Moochifer sold a company that ended up @ Leyman Brothers before Leyman went Das Kapital bankrupt (while they were still "too big to fail").

III. Love Communications

Moochifer said over and over in his first Whut House press conference that he loves The Don very bigly (Heavy).

There is every indication that Moochifer will also get along well with Ryan Rand ("The First Pence"), because they both have the same patron saint (Ayn Rand: Patron Saint of The Plutocracy - 3).

IV. Conclusion

I think that sometimes the future can be grasped by grabbing a few episodes of the past (Banker Jekyll Will Hyde Your Money, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12).

If you know what I mean.

The next post in this series is here, previous post in this series is here.

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