Is A New Age Of Pressure Upon Us? - 7

The gravity of sea level change

Bad scientific practices eventually become obvious, sometimes by the scientists who recognize their own mistakes (Brain Genetics Paper Retracted).

At other times the Internet can  be a useful tool for exposing such mistakes (The Web Engenders Good Scientific Scepticism).

Self review and external criticism are both useful at times, but self realization gets the most attention since it is so rare (The Conversion of a Climate-Change Sceptic).

We can hope that those who call themselves climate scientists, but who are quacks, will do the same.

The reason that is less likely to happen in the global warming realm of that small group is that they are intellectually dishonest.

The sophistication of satellites that circle the globe quickly to report what cannot be reported by scientists riding about on a dog sled at the poles is overwhelming:

The planet's two largest ice sheets – in Greenland and Antarctica – are now being depleted at an astonishing rate of 120 cubic miles each year. That is the discovery made by scientists using data from CryoSat-2, the European probe that has been measuring the thickness of Earth's ice sheets and glaciers since it was launched by the European Space Agency in 2010.

Even more alarming, the rate of loss of ice from the two regions has more than doubled since 2009, revealing the dramatic impact that climate change is beginning to have on our world.

(How Fifth Graders Calculate Ice Volume - 5). Another satellite which measures the Earth's gravity chimes in to tell us more:

West Antarctica has lost so much ice between 2009 and 2012 that the gravity field over the region dipped, according to an announcement Friday from the European Space Agency (ESA). The conclusion is based on high-resolution measurements from satellites that map Earth’s gravity.

The gravitational fluctuation over the Antarctic Peninsula is small, but it’s further evidence that melting ice is fundamentally changing parts of the planet. (Discover, Antarctic Ice Melt is Changing Earth’s Gravity)

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Although not designed to map changes in Earth’s gravity over time, ESA’s extraordinary satellite has shown that the ice lost from West Antarctica over the last few years has left its signature.

More than doubling its planned life in orbit, GOCE spent four years measuring Earth’s gravity in unprecedented detail.

Scientists are now armed with the most accurate gravity model ever produced. This is leading to a much better understanding of many facets of our planet – from the boundary between Earth’s crust and upper mantle to the density of the upper atmosphere.

The strength of gravity at Earth’s surface varies subtly from place to place owing to factors such as the planet’s rotation and the position of mountains and ocean trenches.

Changes in the mass of large ice sheets can also cause small local variations in gravity.

Recently, the high-resolution measurements from GOCE over Antarctica between November 2009 and June 2012 have been analysed by scientists from the German Geodetic Research Institute, Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands, the Jet Propulsion Lab in USA and the Technical University of Munich in Germany. (ESA, GOCE)

What happens after the ice sheet melts or slides into the ocean is that mass is redistributed around the globe (ice becomes water or displaces water before it melts), changing the pressures on the Earth's crust (Is A New Age Of Pressure Upon Us?, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).

Scientists who are knowledgeable in this area of science have been able to make successful predictions about the affect ice sheet melt can have on crustal dynamics (Global Warming & Volcanic Eruptions).

Deniers can't do helpful things like that because they suffer from the dementia of denial, a symptom studied by the discipline of Agnotology (Agnotology: The Surge, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11).

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

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A 1958 video which shows we went into the catastrophe with our "eyes wide open."

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Is A New Age Of Pressure Upon Us? - 6

Active Volcanoes Under Polar Ice Sheets

In this series we have been discussing the pressure changes on the Earth's crust that melting ice sheets have induced in the past, are now inducing, and will be inducing in the future.

Especially interesting is sensitive crustal areas we can call "hair-trigger zones."

Those are areas such as earthquake fault zones, areas where volcanoes have been impacted by thinning ice sheets over them, and the general torque across the whole crust under the oceans.

These pressures come from weight removal as ice caps become thin, then from weight increases on the crust as the sea level rises (e.g. Is A New Age Of Pressure Upon Us? - 5).

A new study conducted in the Southern Hemisphere indicates that volcanic activity under the Thwaites Glacier in Western Antarctica may be increasing:

Thwaites Glacier is one of the West Antarctica’s most prominent, rapidly evolving, and potentially unstable contributors to global sea level rise. Uncertainty in the amount and spatial pattern of geothermal flux and melting beneath this glacier is a major limitation in predicting its future behavior and sea level contribution. In this paper, a combination of radar sounding and subglacial water routing is used to show that large areas at the base of Thwaites Glacier are actively melting in response to geothermal flux consistent with rift-associated magma migration and volcanism. This supports the hypothesis that heterogeneous geothermal flux and local magmatic processes could be critical factors in determining the future behavior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

(New Study - Volcanic Activity). This type of activity was not only predicted by scientists, it has already happened exactly as predicted under ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere:

In August of 2007, over 2.5 years ago, a geologist had studied the historical record for global warming events which were not anthropogenic (not caused by human activity).

His conclusions were that global warming has caused volcanic eruptions and earthquakes in the ancient past.

He went on to say that the anthropogenic global warming occurring now will do so too.

Over two and a half years ago he mentioned by name the very volcano that just erupted in Iceland shutting down air traffic over Europe.

He also indicated that earthquakes could result from anthropogenic global warming:

"In places like Iceland, for example, where you have the Eyjafjallajökull ice sheet, which wouldn't survive [global warming], and you've got lots of volcanoes under that, the unloading effect can trigger eruptions," McGuire said.

With the changing dynamics in the crust, faults could also be destabilized, which could bring a whole host of other problems.

"It's not just the volcanoes. Obviously if you load and unload active faults, then you're liable to trigger earthquakes," McGuire told LiveScience, noting that there is ample evidence for this association in past climate change events.

(Live Science, 2007, emphasis added) ...

(Global Warming & Volcanic Eruptions). Remember that we are talking about pressure-change activity having a more noticeable impact where there are triggers in sensitive areas of the crust:

Our results suggest that long-term and late-summer flexural uplift of the Coast Ranges reduce the effective normal stress resolved on the San Andreas Fault. This process brings the fault closer to failure, thereby providing a viable mechanism for observed seasonality in microseismicity at Parkfield and potentially affecting long-term seismicity rates for fault systems adjacent to the valley. We also infer that the observed contemporary uplift of the southern Sierra Nevada previously attributed to tectonic or mantle-derived forces is partly a consequence of human-caused groundwater depletion.

(Is A New Age Of Pressure Upon Us? - 5). Thus, even a drought can become serious enough in a sensitive trigger zone to stimulate events that otherwise are not likely to take place ["Scientists at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego have now discovered that the growing, broad-scale loss of water is causing the entire western U.S. to rise up like an uncoiled spring." - Phys org].

Note also that some of these pressure changing events are one form of what is called "a feedback loop" ... such as:

One of the more amazing facts about the ongoing destruction of the Greenland ice sheet is that it is producing earthquakes that can be detected worldwide. Now, fresh evidence is at hand to show that these “ice quakes” are spreading to previously quiescent parts of Greenland. We’re only in September, but it seems increasingly likely that 2012 will set a record for such quakes.

(Is A New Age Of Pressure Upon Us? - 4). Feedback loops happen when anthropogenic global warming triggers events that cause an additional surprise increase in global warming or increase in direct damage (e.g. methane release from the melting Arctic permafrost is another type of feedback loop).

The greatest danger some of these feedback loops pose is that they can lead to tipping points being reached sooner than they otherwise would have.

Once tipping points kick in we can't stop them no matter how quickly we then decrease our fossil fuel use in response.

The point, then, is to diminish fossil fuel usage and switch to renewable fuels before we trigger those tipping points, not afterwards.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

Is A New Age Of Pressure Upon Us? - 5

About four years ago I began to contemplate more intensely the unintended consequences of global warming induced climate change.

Consequences caused by the damage being done to The Damaged Global Climate System.

Perhaps instead of unintended consequences what I am blogging about maybe should be called totally unexpected consequences.

Or maybe just the "oops factor."

Anyway, notice what was pointed out in April of 2010 in one of the earlier posts on the subject:

"In places like Iceland, for example, where you have the Eyjafjallajökull ice sheet, which wouldn't survive [global warming], and you've got lots of volcanoes under that, the unloading effect can trigger eruptions," McGuire said.

With the changing dynamics in the crust, faults could also be destabilized, which could bring a whole host of other problems.

"It's not just the volcanoes. Obviously if you load and unload active faults, then you're liable to trigger earthquakes," McGuire told LiveScience, noting that there is ample evidence for this association in past climate change events.

(Global Warming & Volcanic Eruptions). Following that, I contemplated the potential for earthquake triggering caused by the changing of pressures on the Earth's crust as the ice sheets thin, and the sea level rises:

The gist of this hypothesis is that all offshore drilling engineering is based upon a reality that is passing away because a new reality is approaching.

The formulas show how we can at once see a change coming as ocean levels change, as ice sheet thickness changes, and as the resultant torque (easing pressure on crust as ice melts; increasing pressure on seabed as ocean rises) works upon the thin crust of the earth.

The first effect of this new reality of pressures caused by melting ice sheets and ice caps and the resultant rise of ocean levels is already here, although in a degree we are not yet certain of.

It is obvious that p=pgh is at once impacted when "h" (e.g. ocean level) or p change, (since g is effectively constant).

The complication no engineers have calculated is the combined effect of both the torque and the pressures when both are concurrently changing.

(Is A New Age Of Pressure Upon Us? - 2). Now, as it turns out, other events that can help to trigger an earthquake:

Our results suggest that long-term and late-summer flexural uplift of the Coast Ranges reduce the effective normal stress resolved on the San Andreas Fault. This process brings the fault closer to failure, thereby providing a viable mechanism for observed seasonality in microseismicity at Parkfield and potentially affecting long-term seismicity rates for fault systems adjacent to the valley. We also infer that the observed contemporary uplift of the southern Sierra Nevada previously attributed to tectonic or mantle-derived forces is partly a consequence of human-caused groundwater depletion.

(Uplift & Seismicity Driven by Groundwater Depletion in ... California). The depletion is exacerbated by global warming induced drought, and overuse of resources by Big Agriculture.

Similar events have been discovered taking place in Antarctica:

Due to the increased melting of ice from global warming, the shrinking ice sheet has caused changes in the ground underneath. However, these changes were thought to be an instant and elastic movement of the crust that was soon followed by a gradual uplifting of the crust over a period of a few thousand years. The GPS data gathered by the researchers showed that the ground in the area was rising much faster than previously thought. The team's measurements suggest that uplifting process pushes up the ground by around 15mm per year. The number is much higher than what the previous studies suggested.

"You would expect this rebound to happen over thousands of years and instead we have been able to measure it in just over a decade. You can almost see it happening which is just incredible," said Grace Nield, the study's lead researcher from the Newcastle University. "Because the mantle is 'runnier' below the Northern Antarctic Peninsula it responds much more quickly to what's happening on the surface."

(Melting ice in Antarctica is reshaping Earth). Yesterday, we talked about tipping points that have already been crossed over so that the associated consequences can't be stopped.

Which will cause these earthquake and volcano hair-triggers to be squeezed on and pressured even more (Will This Float Your Boat - 4).

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

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Bob Dylan, 1963

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Is A New Age Of Pressure Upon Us? - 4

Red-neck Peer-Reviewed Scientific Paper

In this series we have been noticing some of the esoteric aspects of global warming induced climate change, for example, earthquakes and volcanoes.

Which is yet another aspect of reality missed by the simpletons of denialism.

Those who do not yet realize the size and viciousness of the tiger that polluting civilization has by the tail, the clueless media bozos of the mass media who ridicule not only the notion that earthquakes and volcanoes can be linked to climate change,  but who also ridicule even the non-esoteric aspects of the science.

This even though hundreds of thousands have already been killed and hundreds of billions of dollars in damage and destruction has already been done.

Meanwhile the simpleton deniers think global warming understanding is a simple matter of reading the Bible, perhaps prophecy, conveniently forgetting that preachers are not the source of scientific prophesy, scientists are.

We have pointed out one of the scientists, Dr. McGuire, who foretold earthquakes and volcanoes in the context of global warming, as well as pointing out time and again that he has already been proven correct:

"In places like Iceland, for example, where you have the Eyjafjallajökull ice sheet, which wouldn't survive [global warming], and you've got lots of volcanoes under that, the unloading effect can trigger eruptions," McGuire said.

With the changing dynamics in the crust, faults could also be destabilized, which could bring a whole host of other problems.

"It's not just the volcanoes. Obviously if you load and unload active faults, then you're liable to trigger earthquakes," McGuire told LiveScience, noting that there is ample evidence for this association in past climate change events.

(Global Warming & Volcanic Eruptions). That was a quote from a scientist, a geologist, who said, 2.5 years before it happened, that the Eyjafjallajökull volcano would erupt when the ice melted to become too thin to keep a lid on that volcano (European aircraft were grounded when the volcano erupted a couple of years later).

Dr. McGuire went on to say "if you load and unload active faults, then you're liable to trigger earthquakes", meaning that as the ice sheets melt, causing the sea level to rise, the weight of oceans on the Earth's crust will be redistributed around the globe, which will ease up on some faults, but push down harder on other faults.

Today, we can detect swarms of small earthquakes felt by seismographs around the globe every day, some of them generated from yet another esoteric global warming induced climate change phenomenon:

One of the more amazing facts about the ongoing destruction of the Greenland ice sheet is that it is producing earthquakes that can be detected worldwide. Now, fresh evidence is at hand to show that these “ice quakes” are spreading to previously quiescent parts of Greenland. We’re only in September, but it seems increasingly likely that 2012 will set a record for such quakes.

(Iceland's Ice Sheet Earthquakes, emphasis added). This is a type of small earthquake caused by glaciers "calving" massive chunks of ice, impacting the surface, and entering the sea to become icebergs.

In the previous post in this series we quoted the scientist who took the kid gloves off to explain the seriousness of global pollution issues to us, expecting us to be mature enough to handle it:

The bottom line is that through our climate-changing activities we are loading the dice in favour of escalating geological havoc at a time when we can most do without it. Unless there is a dramatic and completely unexpected turnaround in the way in which the human race manages itself and the planet, then long-term prospects for our civilisation look increasingly grim.

(Is A New Age Of Pressure Upon Us? - 3). In other words there is more than meets the eye, so we had better get busy changing our ways of pollution or the results will certainly change us in ways we will not find to be pleasant.

Some infamous members of the mainstream McTell News like to feed us pabulum to keep us asleep until the nightmare comes:

Primetime Fox News
And
WSJ Editorial
Climate Coverage
Mostly Wrong
An analysis by the Union of Concerned Scientists finds that 93 percent of climate info on Fox News prime time and 81 percent on the Wall Street Journal Opinion pages is misleading.

(Scientific American). The larger, general media activity with regard to global warming induced climate change, is likewise wrong headed:

Political maneuvering aside, why are Americans so disengaged from climate change – arguably, one of the most critical problems of our time?

Denial ain't just a river in Egypt; it's also in places like North Carolina and perhaps even embedded into America's cultural DNA. According to the latest study from the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication, the American public's concern about global warming can be sorted into six categories, ranging from alarmed (13%) and concerned (26%), to cautious, disengaged, doubtful and dismissive (that's the other 61% of us). Among the many explanations offered for the knowledge gap are clashing worldviews, varying education levels, demographics, and the media's handling of the issue.

Even as evidence for climate change mounts and the consequences of the phenomenon become more severe, the amount of climate coverage on broadcast networks has plummeted.

(America's Miasma of Misinformation, emphasis added). So American media either lie about global warming induced climate change, or they ignore it.

Let he or she who has the most sin cast the first stone ... or do we get to the bottom of our biggest source of injury-death (military suicide and civilian suicide) which may be indications that media propaganda is divisive & deadly?

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

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How quaint?

There was a time
when the far right
and
the far left
were more cordial
one American to the other
perhaps giving rise
now
to the question
U.S.eh?




The full Wales Visitation (parts read to Buckley by Ginsburg in the video) is here.

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I Can See Redoubt From My House

Most Alaskan people can see Mt. Redoubt from their house.

However, not many of them would advance the notion that such proximity to Mt. Redoubt is tantamount to being a volcanologist. And you surely would not want to bet your life on one who did.

I was building a horse barn to hold thirty or so horses for a municipal authority, in 1986 I think it was, when a volcano further south and near Homer, Alaska blew its top.

Saint Augustine volcano's contributions that day looked like the mushroom cloud a nuclear explosion makes. I was less than sixty miles from the volcano but there were no negative results.

But it was a small volcano compared to Redoubt, which in a worse case scenario could distrupt Anchorage just like Mt. Rainier could disrupt Seattle. Significantly.

One thing is for sure, the people of Anchorage do not need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. But if Redoubt blows lets hope the winds are not blowing from the direction of Russia.