Peak Sea Level - 6

Retreating Glaciers (click to enlarge)

I. Background

In the third and fifth posts of this series, I discussed a hypothesis of Mitrovica and Gomez concerning the impact of sea level fall (SLF) around Antarctica.

Their hypothesis is that SLF will stop or slow down the flow of ice streams into the sea.

I countered that hypothesis (Peak Sea Level - 3, Peak Sea Level - 5).

II. The Concept

Yesterday, I discussed Zachariae Isstrom, a glacier at the terminus of the NEGIS, an ice stream in Greenland.

The discussion was in the context of a scientific paper published this week (Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 53).

Today, I want to fuse that paper with the issue of the impact SLF is now having, and will continue to have on ice streams.

I want to also examine their hypothesis in the context of the loss of the Zachariae Isstrom ice shelf.

Generally, ice shelves slow down the flow of ice streams, that is, until the ice shelf collapses.

So, when the Zachariae Isstrom ice shelf collapsed, did the velocity of the glacial flow to the sea increase or decrease?

III. The Proof of the Concept

There are historical observations of previous ice shelf collapses:

Over the past two decades, the massive platforms of floating ice [ice shelves] that dot the coast of Antarctica have been thinning and doing so at an increasing rate, likely at least in part because of global warming. Scientists are worried about its implications for significant sea level rise.

The ice shelves—some of which are larger than California and tens to hundreds of yards thick—are the linchpins of the Antarctic ice sheet system, holding back the millions of cubic miles of ice contained in the glaciers that flow into them, like doorstops. As the ice sheets thin, the massive rivers of ice behind them can surge forward into the sea.

(Peak Sea Level - 5, quoting Scientific American). An example is the 8-fold increase in velocity of some well known Antarctic glaciers when their ice shelf collapsed:

A discussion about ice shelves vs. ice sheets:

15:29 when the ice shelf "Larsen A" collapsed the entire glacier's flow speed toward the sea increased ...
18:50 "Larsen B" ice shelf collapse caused the same thing ... the entire glacier's flow accelerated toward the sea ...
19:30 when the ice shelf goes away so does the restraint on the glacier, and they then move faster, 8 times faster, toward the sea
27:15 the East Antarctica Totten Glacier basin contains about as much ice as all of Western Antarctica, and it is destabilizing
30:30 the condition of the ice shelf controls what happens to the ice sheet

(ibid, paraphrasing Dr. Rignot video, shown below). Ok, so what does the Zachariae Isstrom paper have to say about it?

We will analyze that shortly.

IV. All Glaciers Conform To The Law of Gravity

In the first video below Professor Rignot mentions tidal fracturing of ice shelves caused by everyday tidal ups and downs.

In the second video Professor Mitrovica talks about an SLF of many meters (10m, 20m - 100m+ near ice sheet coast lines) as ice sheet mass is lost.

That would impact ice shelves near the coast by generating far greater stress on those ice shelves than daily tides do.

Even when the supporting water underneath the ice shelf falls only 5 or 10 feet at low tide, that stresses and fractures the shelf to some lesser degree.

But, when the ocean under the ice shelf falls 10, 20 - 100 meters, due to loss of ice sheet mass / gravity which induces SLF, that ice shelf is toast.

V. SLF Is An Ice Shelf Destroyer

What happened to Zachariae Isstrom, when its ice shelf collapsed, is detailed in the paper:

After 8 years of decay of its ice shelf ... The acceleration rate of its ice velocity tripled, melting of its residual ice shelf and thinning of its grounded portion doubled, and calving is now occurring at its grounding line.

(Fast retreat of Zachariæ Isstrøm, northeast Greenland). Ice streams and glaciers do not slow down when their ice shelf disintegrates, as SLF sets in.

VI. Conclusion

There is still a lot of ignorance about SLF.

Especially SLF generated at or near the coasts of land that the ice sheets rest upon.

It is not generally known that as the ice sheets lose mass they consequently lose gravitational power.

Which means that they can no longer keep a perpetual high sea level at or near their coastline.

The video by Professor Mitrovica is very worthy to use to educate yourself on the general aspects of ice sheet gravity and its impact on sea level change (SLC).

The video has previously been discussed in the sense of ways to prove the concepts it sets forth (e.g. Proof of Concept - 3).

Just because I disagree with Mitrovica and Gomez (on the issue of what happens to ice shelves and ice sheets when SLF takes place near the coast), does not mean that I disagree with the other 99% of their work (I agree with it and respect them and appreciate their work very much).

The previous post in this series is here.

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A discussion about ice shelves vs. ice sheets by Eric Rignot:

15:29 when the ice shelf "Larsen A" collapsed the entire glacier's flow speed toward the sea increased ...
18:50 "Larsen B" ice shelf collapse caused the same thing ... the entire glacier's flow accelerated toward the sea ...
19:30 when the ice shelf goes away so does the restraint on the glacier, and they then move faster, 8 times faster, toward the sea
27:15 the East Antarctica Totten Glacier basin contains about as much ice as all of Western Antarctica, and it is destabilizing
30:30 the condition of the ice shelf controls what happens to the ice sheet

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A discussion of, among other things, SLC as impacted by ice sheet mass and gravity:

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Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 53

Fig. 1 Force Majeure

I. Background

Yesterday, we 'talked' about 1.14% of the total quantity of the world's land-ice melting and/or flowing into the sea (Extinction: Sydney, Shanghai, Rio, NYC, Mumbai, London, & Durban).

It was pointed out in that post how easy it is to accurately calculate that tiny percentage of 1.14%.

That 'tiny' event which would cause a 1 meter / 3.28 foot global mean average sea level rise (SLR), means that the 'tiny' in this odd predicament is the 500 lb. gorilla in the room.

The conclusion was that only 1.14% of the ice sheets and glaciers of the world could marshal enough power to cripple, or worse, current civilization.

It is somewhat like talking about the 1% and the 99% of the infamous "1%-have-lots / 99% have-nots" divide.

The 1% powers-that-be (PTB) have led the way to inducing the anthropogenic global warming induced disintegration of the world's ice sheets, a tiny 1.14% of which will cause them more harm than they have imagined (The 1% May Face The Wrath of Sea Level Rise First).

And, this time their vassals will be unavailing (Why The Military Can't Defend Against The Invasion).

II. NEGIS & Totten Join The Invasion Forces

Some of the Greenland ice streams are in the news this week, for example Zachariæ

Fig. 2 USGS (click to enlarge)

Isstrøm.

Before discussing the news about Zachariæ, let's look at the larger picture that is taking shape, because Zachariæ is a terminating glacier (Greenland Terminating Glaciers, PDF).

In that regard, Fig. 1 shows the main Greenland ice stream, the North East Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS), which Zachariæ is attached to at its terminus.

The whole she-bang is quite impressive:

The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) drains about 16% of all the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) as depicted at Fig. 1.

The Jakobshavn Ice Stream (JI) drains about half of the NEGIS quantity (Northeast Greenland Ice Loss Accelerating).

In the Dredd Blog System, which includes Ecocosmology Blog, there have been several posts concerning the impact of Greenland on the Northeast U.S. from Cape Cod, MA south to Cape Hatteras, NC (e.g.The Question Is: How Much Acceleration Is Involved In SLR - 5?).

The gist of the subject matter is that catastrophic sea level rise (SLR) is much, much closer, in time and in geography, than is being reported in mainstream media.

(Greenland & Antarctica Empires Invade The United States Empire). That puts this week's scientific paper (Fast retreat of Zachariæ Isstrøm) in perspective, and in its place historically, as part of an ongoing saga (Unrecognized Rapid Ice Loss in Northeast Greenland, Sustained Ice Mass Loss, both 2014).

NEGIS is also one of two major players in the invading ice stream army:

If a certain percentage of one glacier (the Totten Glacier) in East Antarctica melts, or otherwise slides into the sea, the same will happen:

How little it will take can also easily be seen by a statement from a scientist who is studying those locations closely and regularly:

"One of them, Totten glacier, holds the equivalent of seven metres of global sea level."

(Dr. Rignot East Antarctica glaciers, cf. Totten Glacier Melting). The percentage of that one glacier which needs to melt to cause 3 ft. / 1 m. of SLR is: 1÷7 = 0.142857143 = 14.3%.

(Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization). That is a slim margin, because the Totten Glacier is showing signs of decomposition (Nature).

(ibid). Totten in E. Antarctica, together with NEGIS in N.E. Greenland, are being melted by the fossil-fuel-burning induced global warming of the atmosphere, and just as importantly, they are being melted by the fossil-fuel-burning induced global warming of the oceans.

III. Fifth Grade Arithmetic Was Never So Scary

I say that because, the NEGIS is about 700 km. in length, with Zachariae Isstrom only

Fig. 3 See Fig. 1 for larger perspective (Credit).

playing a minor role.

I mean that in the sense that Zachariae Isstrom is only one of the terminating glaciers of the NEGIS (NEGIS Sustained Mass Loss).

By itself the NEGIS contains ~16% of Greenland's entire ice mass, which coincidently equates to the catastrophic SLR we have been considering.

That is calculated from Fig. 2 which shows Greenland as having a total global mean average SLR potential of 21.49 feet, with NEGIS comprising 16% of that potential, thus, 21.49 x 16% = 3.44 feet.

Fifth grade arithmetic tells us that 1.14% of all land based ice sheets and glaciers need to melt to reach the beginning of catastrophic SLR: 1 meter / 3 feet.

A bit more of the fifth grade arithmetic tells us that only two (Totten and NEGIS) of the many other available ice streams (e.g. Thwaites @ W. Antarctica or Jakobshavn @ W. Greenland) can very easily do that.

IV. So, Why All Of The 

"Move Along To The Year 2525 Folks, Nothing To See Here?"

It is a tale of two mothers.

We looked at that issue, yesterday, and concluded that it is because Mother Civilization plainly does not want us to know what she is doing to Mother Nature (Extinction: Sydney, Shanghai, Rio, NYC, Mumbai, London, & Durban).

"These things are only a nuisance" she sings, while flashing her Betty Davis eyes.

But we know better, yes, we know that it is Mother Civilization's abusive gang-banger lover who plans to have us "taken care of" in an unprecedented and unpleasant way (The Harm Oil-Qaeda Has Done).

V. Conclusion

"In other words, a society does not ever die 'from natural causes', but always dies from suicide or murder --- and nearly always from the former, as this chapter has shown." - A Study of History,  by Arnold J. Toynbee 

"I maintain that truth is a pathless land, and you cannot approach it by any path whatsoever, by any religion, by any sect. That is my point of view, and I adhere to that absolutely and unconditionally. Truth, being limitless, unconditioned, unapproachable by any path whatsoever, cannot be organized; nor should any organization be formed to lead or coerce people along a particular path. ... This is no magnificent deed, because I do not want followers, and I mean this. The moment you follow someone you cease to follow Truth. I am not concerned whether you pay attention to what I say or not. I want to do a certain thing in the world and I am going to do it with unwavering concentration. I am concerning myself with only one essential thing: to set man free. I desire to free him from all cages, from all fears, and not to found religions, new sects, nor to establish new theories and new philosophies.
...
It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society.” - Jiddu Krishnamurti

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Extinction: Sydney, Shanghai, Rio, NYC, Mumbai, London, & Durban

Fig. 1

I. Introduction

My main gripe with establishment climate change sites is their utter disregard for the main problem with sea level change (SLC).

It doesn't matter what type of SLC we are talking about, whether it is sea level rise (SLR) or sea level fall (SLF), either way they do not yet get it, or perhaps they do not yet have the psychological capacity to talk about the extinction of "their civilization."

The same issue is the major failing of establishment climate change scientists who want to talk about their theme song (In The Year 2525) when addressing the issue of SLC, at least in terms of what it will do to "their civilization."

Perhaps all of their personal friends, acquaintances, and professional colleagues are all descendants of those who killed bearers of bad news.

II. How It Might Happen

Fig. 2

For example, they may mention that "if all the ice sheets and glaciers melt, global mean average sea level will increase up to about 263.5 feet above its current level."

But then they quickly add "that will take place circa the year 2525," evidently knowing that such a statement casts a 'law of when' trance upon the hearer:

"The First Law of 'When': the more critical an issue is to the future of our civilization, the difficulty of determining when that critical issue will take

Fig. 3 Central Hopium

effect tends to increase exponentially.

The Second Law of 'When': the greater the amount of time it takes for that critical issue to play out completely tends to exponentially diminish Civilization's grasp of that critical issue.

The Third Law of 'When': the more destructive the impact which that critical issue would have on civilization tends to exponentially increase the time when that critical event will be understood to have begun to take place."

(Quotes Page, cf. Choose Your Trances Carefully, 2, 3; Hypothesis: The Cultural Amygdala, 2, 3, 4; Comparing a Meme Complex to a Cultural Amygdala).

III. Where It Originates

The hearers I am speaking of are the children of culture, those who fancy their souls as being wrapped in the swaddling clothes of mother civilization:

It’s no accident that our political beliefs are structured by our idealizations of the family. Our earliest experience with being governed is in our families. Our parents “govern” us:

Fig. 4 Mother Civilization & her civilians

They protect us, tell us what we can and cannot do, make sure we have enough money and supplies, educate us, and have us do our part in running the house.

So it is not at all surprising that many nations are metaphorically seen in terms of families: Mother Russia, Mother India, the Fatherland.

In America, we have founding fathers, Daughters of the American Revolution, Uncle Sam, and we send our collective sons and daughters to war.

In George Orwell’s dystopian novel 1984, the voice of the totalitarian state was called Big Brother.

As George Lakoff discussed at length in his 1996 book, Moral Politics, this metaphorical understanding of the nation-as-family directly informs our political worldview. Directly, but not consciously. As with other aspects of framing, the use of this metaphor lies below the level of consciousness.

(Security: Familyland, Fatherland, or Homeland?). For reasons which to me are obvious, I prefer to call it in loco parentis, and I do mean loco (In Loco Parentis & Parens Patriae, 2).

IV. How To Stop Being A Civil Womboid

Fig. 5

It is certainly true that if all the ice of the world melts and flows into the sea that global mean average sea level will rise some 80.32 meters or 263.5 feet (USGS).

You know, "in the year 2525."

But what amount does it take to severely damage or even bring down civilization as we know it?

Fig. 6

Even a global mean average SLR of about 1 meter (3.28 ft.) would be a catastrophe.

Remember that some areas would have a higher SLR than that global mean average.

For example, the U.S. east coast would experience a higher SLR than most other global coastal areas:

To spark our interest, and bind ourselves to a sober view of this phenomenon which is called "The Biggest Story in the World" (according to a worldwide circulation news source), first consider the following quote from the video below:

2:43 - "One meter [of SLR] would be a global catastrophic event, 3 meters would remap the world as we know it?"

2:50 - "Yes, absolutely."

(emphasis added). This allows us to focus our attention on 1m / 3ft. of SLR, because it would be "a global catastrophic event."

The delicacy of the issue can be seen (Fig. 2) by realizing that only 1.14% of the global ice volume needs to melt to get us there (3 ft ÷ 263.5 ft. = 0.011385 = 1.14%).

The overall invader needs to use only 1.14% of its forces to accomplish the invasion.

(Greenland & Antarctica Invade The United States). When only 1.14% of the total global ice sheets and glaciers melt, that will cause a global mean average SLR of about 1 meter (~3.28 ft.).

Fig. 7

Talking about the year 2525 "when all of the ice has melted" is imbecilic beyond the pale.

It is quite likely that the words least used in establishment mainstream "science reporting" are the words which (in an adult society that can take care of itself), would be appropriate to be used the most.

That would be the words of warning, the words that would cause the powers that be, the adults in the room, to take heed.

Those words do not exist, however, to those who are psychopaths, to those who are animated by some form of alien criminal cognition (The Harm Oil-Qaeda Has Done).

V. In The Year 2025

Let's talk the year 2025 then, since Hansen et al. (2015) mentioned that it is possible that a ten foot (10 ft.) SLR could take place in some areas of the globe by the year 2050 (A Paper From Hansen et al. Is Now Open For Discussion - 3).

The year 2050 is 35 years from now, so I submit that a "1 meter (~3.28 ft.)" SLR by 2025

Fig. 8  Chesapeake: This already happened

(10 years) fits into that acceleration pattern (3/10 6/20 10/35).

It follows, using the concept of acceleration (which they call "doubling" of melt or calving), that we are in danger already --as shown in Fig. 8 and Fig. 9 (The Extinction of Chesapeake Bay Islands).

That is, among other things, because of the enormous amount of time, money, and human resources that are mandatory in such large scale public works (Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 44).

VI. On To More Reality, Less Fantasy

Let's take a look at one of the establishment climate change sites and establishment climate change scientists that I alluded to in the first sentence of today's post:

"Long-term sea level rise ... threatens major coastal cities ... London,

Fig. 9 An old graveyard buried by SLR (already happened)

Shanghai, Mumbai, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, Durban and New York ... we show projections of post-2100 sea level rise ... Projections of locked-in sea level come from our peer-reviewed research published October 12 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the U.S.A. A special Climate Central-led report, published November 9, describes the application of those projections to global elevation data for making the maps upon which these images are based."

(see Fig. 3, Climate Central). There it is, the classic mindless blank statement which is utterly meaningless and very deceptive, as illustrated by "The Laws of When" presented alongside that imaginary picture at Fig. 3.

The Dredd Blog approach is to use the actual SLC history of a particular city, by studying actual tide gauge station records in the area of that city (see PSMSL Tide Gauge Station List).

In today's post, I have presented some graphs of stations, which represent actual data at actual locations, some with future projections (Fig. 1, Fig. 2, Fig. 5, Fig. 6, Fig. 7).

Those stations are at or near the imaginary "post-2100" locations in the surreptitious hopium piece (Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization, 2, 3, 4, 5).

I would rather do that instead of using phony non-photos offered to represent adult concepts, but which are in reality only childish avoidances.

VII. Conclusion

Don't Say That About Mommie Civilization

"One thing is for sure on the subject of global warming induced climate change: if there was ever a time to err on the safe side, it was long ago." - Dredd Blog Quotes Page

Avoidance by ignorance is either childish or psychotic.

That is why children walk onto an interstate freeway wondering what all those blurry objects are.

It is also why psychopaths plunge ahead into the climate change abyss, their authoritarian victims following close behind (The Psychology of the Notion of Collective Guilt, The Authoritarianism of Climate Change, The Private Empire's Social Media Hit Squads - 2).

The Harm Oil-Qaeda Has Done

Regular readers know that for years Dredd Blog has tracked down and followed the trail of Oil-Qaeda (The Authoritarianism of Climate Change, Oil-Qaeda: The Deadliest Parasite Of Civilization, 2; Oil-Qaeda: The Indictment, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, Oil-Qaeda: The Weakening?; Terrarists; The Peak of the Oil Lies, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).

The purpose was to expose its conspiracy to commit depraved heart murder (DHM) against civilization (Oil-Qaeda & MOMCOM Conspire To Commit Depraved-Heart Murder, 2, 3; MOMCOM's Mass Suicide & Murder Pact, 2, 3, 4, 5).

There is no meaningful distinction between DHM and extinction, other than the fact that there is a statute of limitations on extinction (The Extinction of Charleston, ... Philadelphia, ... Washington, D.C., ... Robust Sea Ports, ... Boston, ... Miami, ... Manzanillo, ... Houston, ... Providence, ... Chesapeake Bay Islands).

Oil-Qaeda is the largest psychopathic-meme-complex in history, exhibiting all of the maladjusted behavioural characteristics of individual psychopaths, but doing so in concert as a group:

"In 1977, [Oil-Qaeda] scientists began to discuss the threat of disruptive climate change as a direct result of the burning of fossil fuels. The [private empire] launched cutting-edge research into the effects that carbon dioxide emissions would have on the climate. Based on that research, [Oil-Qaeda] scientists warned [Oil-Qaeda] leadership that carbon dioxide emissions would warm the planet, with potentially catastrophic repercussions.

Rather than accept what their own scientists were saying, top executives at [Oil-Qaeda] started a massive campaign of disinformation. By 1997, the chief executive of [Oil-Qaeda], Lee Raymond, was publicly claiming that the connection between human activities and climate change was inconclusive and uncertain. Forbes magazine wrote that Raymond “used his executive chair as a platform for espousing his disbelief in global warming.”

[Oil-Qaeda] created advertisements that contradicted its own research on global warming. The [private empire] funded the Global Climate Coalition, an organization of [criminally conspiring] companies dedicated to derailing government efforts to slash emissions from fossil fuels.

[Oil-Qaeda] also spent millions of dollars in the form of political campaign donations, lobbying fees and public relations strategies to discredit climate science and disrupt any forceful state or federal action to cut carbon dioxide emissions. The [private empire] also supported think tanks that attempted to discredit climate science and scientists.

In 2001, [Oil-Qaeda] lobbyists helped convince President George W. Bush to pull out of the Kyoto Protocol. By 2006, the [private empire] was funneling tens of millions of dollars to at least 43 organizations dedicated to discrediting climate science. [Oil-Qaeda] opposed historic climate and energy legislation such as the American Clean Energy and Security Act, also known as the Waxman-Markey Bill. The measure died in the Senate in 2009."

(The Harm Exxon Mobil Has Done, emphasis added). ExxonMobil devolved from Humble Oil-Qaeda.

It does not matter which way we look at it, the bottom line is that Oil-Qaeda, through its deception, is the force of cognition that has led civilization to the brink (Civilization Is Now On Suicide Watch, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).

Regular readers know that Oil-Qaeda likes to remind us that it is "not an American company" (MOMCOM: The Private Parts, 2, 3, 4, 5).

I like to remind Oil-Qaeda that where it makes its bed does not matter, what matters is the will or lack thereof of officials charged with prosecuting crimes against the United States (Follow The Immunity, 2, 3).

The corruption of officials has been the mainstay of Oil-Qaeda, and still is to this very day.

Until that changes, extinction gets closer each day.

The next post in this series is here.

New Type of SLC Detection Model - 10

I. Introduction

The reality of sea level change (SLC) is composed of both sea level fall (SLF) and of sea level rise (SLR) in this era (On the West Side of Zero, Proof of Concept - 3).

Not only that, there are hinge points (The Evolution and Migration of Sea Level Hinge Points).

Concerning hinge points, there is a "twilight zone" for PSMSL tide gauge stations that are within the radius of the circle of hinge points.

Which means that one can be fooled or confused about the nature of SLC at a given tide gauge station, especially when that station is being impacted by ice sheet mass / gravity loss.

That ice sheet mass / gravity loss will cause either SLF, SLR, or both, as a hinge point is moving toward, over, or past that station (The Gravity of Sea Level Change).

II. The European Problem

Note that the majority of tide gauge stations experience only SLR or SLF, but a few stations experience both SLR and SLF.

Fig. 1 Immingham, England (SLC)

In today's post, I am addressing the twilight zone stations, and showing some examples.

In the video below, Dr. Mitrovica mentions "the European problem" which was written about in the scientific literature for a long time (note that Dr. Mitrovica says "they did not have a clue" about why tide gauges were recording SLF and SLR).

Some European ports and tide gauge stations did not record SLC like other places in

Fig. 2 Ratan, Sweden (SLF change)

the world did, so of course they were suspected of having defective tide gauge stations, and everything else, ("bad cousins") for a long time.

Compare Immingham, England (Fig. 1, Fig. 3) with Ratan, Sweden (Fig. 2, Fig. 4).

Both are in the "np" zone (New Type of SLC Detection Model - 4) which is impacted by the ice sheet gravity of Iceland, as well as the glacial-ice gravity of the glaciers on the lands north of Europe (e.g. Svalbard), and in Europe too (e.g. Finland) (cf. Fig. 5).

Fig. 3 Immingham, England (SLC)

Immingham is in the "twilight zone", i.e., near the hinge point or points, while Ratan is in the SLF zone (within the radius of the hinge line circle).

This puzzles those who, by choice or neglect, do not have all the pieces of the puzzle (e.g. reality is a big part of the puzzle, such as noting 2012 was a big melt year causing some hinge line movement, etc. @ Fig. 1, Fig. 3).

That would be those who have been professionally lazy for far too long, as the professor in the video below points out.

III. Zone In, Don't Zone Out

Fig. 4 Rattan, Sweden (SLF)

If one views the SLF zones of the globe, one can see that on one side of the hinge line SLF is happening, while on the other side SLR is happening (Fig. 5).

The Fig. 5 graphic was presented in the Mitrovica video at the bottom of this post.

The thing to remember about that graphic is that it is a still-shot of a constantly moving target.

Fig. 5 SLC areas (click 2 enlarge)

The hinge line moves as the ice sheets lose mass, or as glaciers not-on-ice-sheets lose mass (Proof of Concept - 3).

The hinge line (invisible like the invisible gravity that produces it) is where SLF and SLR meet.

The hinge line is also constantly on the move, until all the ice of the world melts or calves into the sea.

The graphic at Fig. 5 shows a snap-shot of the hinge line, which is located where the Dark Blue color turns into Cyan.

If you notice closely, this explains the Ratan vs. Immingham mystery.

Ratan, Sweden (Fig. 2, Fig. 4) is inside the Dark Blue area, that is inside the SLF zone, while a relatively short distance away, Immingham, England (Fig. 1, Fig. 3) is on the Cyan side of the hinge line, that is,  is in the SLR zone, but not inside enough.

Immingham, therefore, is having a different SLC experience than Ratan is, even though they are geographically close to one another.

It is the same with tide gauge stations impacted by the Glacier Bay hinge line, in that, ports in cities just as close to one another (as Ratan and Immingham are) on the west coast of the U.S.eh? have very different SLC experiences (Proof of Concept - 3).

IV. How The Software Model Handles It

When I construct a software model that deals with these tide gauge locations, I face the same problem that public works officials face when they look at their tide gauge station records, then compare them with other tide gauge records.

That issue is: "How does one discern the future developments at this station?"

In other words, how do I know to apply, for a particular station, an SLR increase algorithm, or instead, an SLF decrease algorithm?

Algorithms that will generate a projected future path, which I then have to chart on a graph?

I don't want to exaggerate this problem, because as I wrote above, by far the largest percent of acceptable tide gauge stations do not fall within the SLC twilight zone.

The small percentage which do fall into the twilight zone, in that sense comprise a relatively small problem (the public officials there may not think it is a small problem).

For example, to begin with the "np" and "sp" zones, where the problem is most pronounced, have fewer stations overall than the "eq" zone has.

One hundred and two (102) stations fall into the SLF 'suspect zone' (it looks like SLF mode, but may not be) after initial analysis.

Of those, seventy (70) are in the "np" zone (north & polar areas), and the other thirty-two (32) are in the "eq" zone (non-polar, more mid-latitudes).

When the software model's future projecting module runs, it uses a sub-module to analyze and write a record of how it handles these twilight zone stations, and makes a .csv file of records for later analysis of its analysis.

That csv file contains, among others, the following two records which I have cut and pasted here in this post.

Those two records are the first and the last records of that csv file (a file that has been sorted from the least clear to the most clear).

Anyway, here they are:

name,id,zone,inc,dec,4slr,4slf,div [csv column header]
IMMINGHAM,286,np,24,25,23,24,2

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RATAN,88,np,46,77,45,76,64

What that means is:

The tide gauge station at IMMINGHAM is PSMSL station id number 286 in zone np. In the historical time frame analyzed (1960-2013), station #286 had 24 SLR events, 25 SLF events, 23 other SLF indicators, 24 other SLR indicators, and ended up with a divide factor of 2.

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The tide gauge station at RATAN is PSMSL station id number 88 in zone np. In the historical time frame analyzed (1892-2014), station # 88 had 46 SLR events, 77 SLF events, 45 other SLF indicators, 76 other SLR indicators, and ended up with a divide factor of 64.

BTW, the divide-factor value (0-100) indicates the strength of clarity, so, the closer the hinge line is likely to be (i.e. how near it is to the tide gauge station) the lower the divide-factor value will tend to be.

Thus, the lower the divide-factor value is, the less clear the future SLC status is (in terms of being clearly SLF, or clearly SLR at a time certain).

V. Conclusion

Thus, IMMINGHAM did not qualify for a future projection of either SLR or SLF, because it is too "twilight zone" (too near the hinge line).

But RATAN did qualify for a future projection out to the year 2099, because the model could tell clearly that the tide gauge station there is in SLF mode.

Which means that a melting ice sheet or melting mountain glacier area near enough to the tide gauge station that its moving hinge line impacts that station in a way that leaves the future SLC uncertain.

So, the model will not at this time generate a future projection.

Instead, it will wait for more annual data during the upcoming years, until that data makes it clear enough to do a future SLC projection.

Again, most (about 93%) of the usable (to the demanding Dredd Blog model) 487 stations out of 1,417 total PSMSL stations, have historical data making it clear enough to do future projections about those stations.

So, I have an easier job than those public works officials whose tide gauges are located in the twilight zone.

And I have an easier job of it than the other public works officials who are in the clearly "targeted for extinction" zone.

Which is the expanding extinction zone that Oil-Qaeda is putting us all into day by day.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

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Dr. Jerry Mitrovica on the fingerprints of SLC:

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Global Warming Blaze

Blaze
(by Zack Strait)

we were riding out to an abandoned farmhouse
on his pearl black Triumph

deaf to the sound of bleating sheep

that was when he told me it was the same model
James Dean had swapped for
three days after

they’d finished filming East of Eden

I tried to tell him that was cool but he didn’t act
like he’d heard me
so I hugged him tight

and set my head on his shoulder

and watched how the yellow moon was shifting
behind the pines
like the face of a jailbird

he’d told me before that his wife knew he didn’t
swing her way
but she was keeping quiet about it

for their kid’s sake

we rumbled into the dry grass and started cutting
through the cornstalks

into a big clearing where he kicked
the bike stand
and told me to get off

he tossed his chrome aviators and then we started
our hike to the farmhouse
which was sagging in the field

opposite of us

we were quiet on the way like a couple of thieves
about to rob someone blind

I stood back as he tore a warped door
off the barn
and flung it into the gravel

inside the air was dusty and thick and the moon
was still with us
cocked behind a streaked window

like we’d traded places

and now we were the jailbirds serving a lifetime
sentence without parole

John pulled off his steel-toe boots
and told me to wait for him
up in the hayloft

I left my loafers there and climbed a wood ladder
until I was looking into the eyes
of a great horned owl

he kept shaking his head
like he couldn’t believe what was about to happen

I was going to be John’s first

but while I was gathering the wet straw
I smelled smoke
and slid back down the ladder

that was when I saw the fire licking the crossbeams
and ran outside

John was passing through the wheat
like a final judgment

his figure was muscled with flame and I kept silent
as he reached for a head of grain

and burned it to the ground

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"Neighborhood #3 (Power Out)"
(by Arcade Fire)

I woke up with the power out
Not really something to shout about
Ice has covered up my parents hands
Don't have any dreams, don't have any plans

I went out into the night
I went out to find some light
Kids are swingin' from the power lines
Nobody's home, so nobody minds

I woke up on the darkest night
Neighbors all were shoutin' that they found the light
"We found the light!"
Shadows jumpin' all over my walls
Some of them big, some of them small

I went out into the night
I went out to pick a fight with anyone
Light a candle for the kids
Jesus Christ don't keep it hid!

Ooh! Ooh! Ooh!

Ice has covered up my parents hands
Don't have any dreams, don't have any plans
Growin' up in some strange storm
Nobody's cold, nobody's warm

I went out into the night
I went out to find some light
Kids are dyin' out in the snow,
Look at them go, look at them go!

Ooh! Ooh! Ooh!
Ooh! Ooh! Ooh!

And the power's out
In the heart of man
Take it from your heart
Put it in your hand

What's the plan? What's the plan?

Is it a dream? Is it a lie?
I think I'll let you decide
Just light a candle for the kids
Jesus Christ don't keep it hid!

'Cause nothin's hid
From us kids
You ain't foolin' nobody
With the lights out!

Ooh! Ooh! Ooh!

And the power's out
In the heart of man
Take it from your heart
Put it in your hand

And there's something wrong
In the heart of man
Take it from your heart
Put it in your hand

Where'd you go?!

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A Paper From Hansen et al. Is Now Open For Discussion - 3

Dr. James Hansen: Arrested for Protesting Ecocide

I. Introduction

This series is about a scientific paper published by Hansen, et alia, which among other things, hypothesized that stronger storms were in our future (A Paper From Hansen et al. Is Now Open For Discussion).

From the time their paper was published, it was in the neighborhood of only 90 days until hurricane Patricia (with highest wind speed and lowest millibars ever recorded) and tropical cyclone Chapala ("the strongest tropical cyclone on record so far south in the Arabian Sea") appeared on radar screens.

Hansen, et alia, also hypothesized an accelerating sea level rise (SLR).

Within that same 90 day time frame, NOAA warned about increasing sea level rise in the near future:

Nuisance on the Ritz

"NOAA water level gauges document an increasing frequency of tidal flooding around much of the U.S., which is driven primarily by local relative sea level rise." - PDF

(NOAA). The other issues in the paper, such as acceleration of the intensity of these phenomena at exponential rates, rather than linear rates, are presently on the way (The Extinction of Charleston, The Extinction of Philadelphia, The Extinction of Washington, D.C., The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports, The Extinction of Boston, The Extinction of Miami, The Extinction of Manzanillo, The Extinction of Houston, The Extinction of Providence).

II. Nuisance?

Evidently, to some folks at NOAA it is macho to call these events a 'nuisance'  as a way of poo pooing the constant impact of flooding (ibid).

But, those who are paying $27,000 a year for flood insurance (more than their mortgage) do not consider that to be a 'nuisance' ... it is more like a financial catastrophe (You Are Here - 5).

NOAA people must be paid a very high salary if a $27,000 insurance premium (if you can even get flood insurance any more in those areas) is merely a 'nuisance' in the U.S.eh?

Or, if the land under your home is sinking into the depths, for the second time on the second island, both the first and the second 'nuisance' in your lifetime is more like a catastrophe than a mere 'nuisance' (The Extinction of Chesapeake Bay Islands).

III. Nuisance!! (Eating Jellyfish to Remember Cod Almighty)

The waters of Maine have been warming for decades, warming out a warning, that no-one in fishy officialdom heeded, except to acknowledge that losing the once-vast cod fishery was a 'nuisance':

"The Atlantic cod, a fish that came to symbolize bounty to America’s colonial settlers, is on the brink of disappearing, despite years of fishing limits aimed at rebuilding stocks. A new study reveals why: Cod spawning and survival has been hampered by rapid, extraordinary ocean warming in the Gulf of Maine, where sea surface temperatures rose faster than anywhere else on the planet between 2003 and 2014.

“Over this same 10-year period, fishery managers set quotas that they felt were informed by high-quality science, and the stock just kept going down, down, down,” says study leader Andrew Pershing, the chief scientist for the Gulf of Maine Research Institute in Portland, Maine. When his team looked closely at factors behind the trends, he says, “We found the fingerprints of temperature throughout the data.”

The scientists used satellite data to track the daily sea surface temperature trend in the Gulf of Maine. From 1982 until 2004, they found, temperatures rose by 0.03°C per year, or three times the global mean rate. That warming accelerated sevenfold beginning in 2004, peaking in 2012 with a large “ocean heat wave” that persisted for 18 months, according to the study."

(Science, emphasis added). "Gosh, you expect us managers to know that heated water causes species migration or extinction?"

IV. Prevagen – The Jellyfish-Brain Supplement

Scientists are not sure if the cod management folk have brains or not, but they are "sure" that jellyfish do not have brains.

I think the cod management folk are composed of brainlessness on steroids, and that synthetic jellyfish stuff will not cure them of it:

Through more than 18 years of research, Quincy Bioscience developed Prevagen, a brain health supplement made from the same protein found in the Aequorea victoria jellyfish. The protein from the jellyfish is able to be produced in a scientifically controlled way through the process of fermentation. Jellyfish are not actually used in the manufacturing process of this unique [jellyfish] brain health supplement.

Prevagen has been tested and proven safe. It has also been voted as the #1 memory supplement in the United States.

(Prevagen, "The Jellyfish Supplement not made from Jellyfish"). The problem of remembering the fabled cod will be solved, but where the cod went will not.

V. Sophomoronic Dangers

Those sophomoronic fishery officials who did not know how to keep themselves from causing their cod to become commercially extinct ("cod is dead") off the coast of New England, will now be taking over the Prevagen fishery.

So, they need to beware of the main danger now: siphonophores.

These are communities of small creatures that work together as a unit, who work for the common good, who look like, and maybe are, jellyfish:

"The fascinating jellyfish is a marine animal that is found all over in the oceans of the world. The 200 varieties of jellyfish, come in a stunning array of colors, sizes and shapes. In the northeastern region of the United States is the region of New England. Its coastline is bounded by the Atlantic ocean and is home to a diverse marine life. There a lot of jellyfish in these waters and main ones are the Lion's Mane and Portuguese man-of-war.

Technically the Portuguese man-of-war cannot be called a jellyfish as it is a siphonophore, which is an animal made up of colony of organisms working together. But it does look like a jellyfish and people also generally refer to it as a jellyfish." - (New England Jellyfish)

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"Siphonophores are of special scientific interest because they are composed of medusoid and polypoid zooids that are morphologically and functionally specialized. Each zooid is an individual module, but their integration with each other is so strong that the colony attains the function of a large organism. Indeed, most of the zooids are so specialized, they lack the ability to survive on their own. This is somewhat analogous to the construction and function of multicellular organisms; because multicellular organisms have organs which, like zooids, are specialized and interdependent, siphonophores may provide clues regarding the evolution of more complex bodies." -(Wikipedia)

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"Siphonophores differ from most other colonial animals in two fundamental respects. First, there is a high degree of specialization between the zooids. Zooids specialized for one function usually have well developed features to serve that function but lack the structures associated with other functions. For instance, the nectophores that propel the colony through the water (which are a type of medusa) can’t eat, and the feeding polyps can’t swim. Each is dependant on the other to do what it can’t do. Second, the specialized zooids of a siphonophore are arranged in an extremely precise pattern. This pattern is the same from colony to colony of the same species, but different between species. Siphonophores, then, have become extremely complicated organisms, just as we have, but in an entirely different way. Whereas we are made up of specialized cells that are arranged into tissues and organs, siphonophores are made up of specialized zooids precisely organized at the level of the colony. Understanding how evolution has shaped siphonophores into such complex colonial organisms may tell us quite a bit about how evolution was able to generate complex multicellular organisms, including ourselves." -(Siphonophores).

(emphasis added). If the New England Fishery managers (who oversaw the destruction of a successful, centuries-old cod fishery that was older than the U.S.eh?) mistake the siphonophores for jellyfish, or vice versa, and allow them to be made into Prevagen, or food products, then people who use or eat them could begin to cooperate, to care for one another, to work as a collective, and to even develop universal health care.

VI. Conclusion

Hell, the Patriots may even begin to play fair football if they are infected with the cooperation genetics within siphonophores.

In short ... danger, danger Will Smith.

Thus, special care must be taken to insure that such unAmerican siphonophoric development does not take place in the U.S.eh? ... because we only do sophomoronic here.

We urge those sophomoronic officials (who normalized big cod into no cod), to continue their 'nuisance' work, and to make sure that congress does not learn about Prevagen.

It could become a nuisance.

The previous post in this series is here.

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The final, peer-reviewed version of the paper is here.

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