Seaports With Sea Level Change - 9

Ports Are Ports

I. Review

Regular readers know that Dredd Blog has considered, for a number of years, the vulnerability of world seaports to sea level change in terms of both sea level fall and sea level rise (e.g. "The artist's painting, above, shows that the major ports would be destroyed ultimately, but will be damaged well before they become useless", Will This Float Your Boat?, May 4, 2011; Seaports With Sea Level Change, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).

That reality is finding its way into the scientific literature:

"Ports are an important economic actor—at local, national, and international scales—that have been identified as being vulnerable to future changes to the climate. This paper details the findings from an international review of state‐of‐the‐art knowledge concerning climate risks, and adaptation responses, for ports and their supply chains. Evidence from both academic and gray literature indicates that there has already been major damage and disruption to ports across the world from climate‐related hazards and that such impacts are projected to increase in the years and decades to come. Findings indicate that while a substantial—and growing—body of scientific evidence on coastal risks and potential adaptation options is acting as a stimulus for port authorities to explicitly consider the risks for their assets and operations, only a notable few [port authorities] have actually made the next step toward implementing adaptation strategies. This paper concludes by putting forward constructive recommendations for the sector and suggestions for research to address remaining knowledge gaps. It emphasizes a call for collaboration between the research and practice communities, as well as the need to engage a broad range of stakeholders in the adaptation planning process."

(Implications of climate change for shipping, 2018, emphasis added). Dredd Blog continues to produce material mentioned in that paper as "gray literature" (a.k.a. grey literature) as a public service (What is Grey Literature?, Gray Literature).

The corporate media on the other hand doesn't cover this issue very much, if at all, which may be a factor in the ongoing negligence or denial by port authorities.

The alt-right wing of the corporate media spends more time denying these issues than the more responsible journalists spend reporting them (While we fixate on coronavirus, Earth is hurtling towards a catastrophe worse than the dinosaur extinction).

II. Today's Post

Today's post is an update using the most recent Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) dataset, as of April 6 this year (PSMSL Data Page).

The graph data is presented by PSMSL "Coastline code" sequence only (when there are two graphs of the same Coastline Code, one is sea level fall, the other is sea level rise (the sea level fall and rise graphs are from different WOD zones in the same Coastline Code location ... see HTML appendices).

The HTML and graph beginning and ending years and amounts are not in strict syncronization because they are done by two different modules.

I am finishing up on a program that solves that, but remember that the graphs are for showing the trends in a coastal area, while the HTML files are to provide details of a different sort.

The HTML-format data is alphabetized by Country name first and Coastline code second.

The HTML table menu below gives you a one click trip to appendices which have the data laid out for your perusal.

The links are alphabetical (e.g. countries with names beginning with an "A" are in the "A-C" appendices, countries with names beginning with a "U" are in the "U-Z" appendices, etc.):

Single-Coastline Countries	Multi-Coastline Countries	Graphs of those Countries
Appendix: A - C	Appendix: A - C	Appendix: A - C
Appendix: D - G	Appendix: D - G	Appendix: D - G
Appendix: H - L	Appendix: H - L	Appendix: H - L
Appendix: M - O	Appendix: M - O	Appendix: M - O
Appendix: P - T	Appendix: P - T	Appendix: P - T
Appendix: U - Z	Appendix: U -Z	Appendix: U -Z

III. Closing Comments

Long live grey/gray literature.

This is a public service of Dredd Blog.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

The Shape Shifters Of Bullshitistan - 19

Professor Cruel, Trump University

"The press is the enemy of the people" in North Korea, China, Russia, The Philippines, Saudi Arabia, and other right-wing authoritarian countries (How To Identify The Despotic Minority, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11).

The authoritarian right wing president of the USA has the same Orwellian, wrong headed opinion.

He speaks evil of fellow Americans in concert with mass murdering North Korean "ideological lover Kimmy."

His current corrupt leader of the Department of Just Us (DOJ) has evidently cleared the way for Robert Swan Mueller III (RSM III) to speak briefly at the newly evolved Department of Hoaxes (DOH), but to take no questions afterwards, thus, today among other things we will see how much Tweeter has perverted, or not, RSM III.

In other words, we may see whether or not the two years of public criticism, obstruction, and character assassination of the Special Counsel has taken down yet another official.

We already know that it has taken down many American minds who now support Professor Cruel of Trump University (High Percent of GOP Support Trump).

But, has it taken down the authors of The Mueller Report (The Shapeshifters of Bullshitistan - 18) ?

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AFTER PRESSER

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After careful consideration concerning what  RSM III stated in his presser, and in his report, I conclude that NO they did not pervert him.

That is good for the USA!

So, RSM III said that his report exposed Russian interference in our politics and that it should concern "every American!"

Therefore, I must pose this question to the Senators in the GOP:  

Since RSM III wants you to be concerned Americans will you drop the political idolization of your political Fuhrer and do as RSM III suggested?

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

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Bingo

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Stormy Ode: (or Ode to Stormy):

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The news today o-boy

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The State of The Onion Script - 3

How did he know?

Preznit Blush had a feeling he would be missed some day.

Preznit Brump seems to be on a mission to make Preznit Blush seem to have been prescient.

The theme of the state of the onion script (SOTOS) tonight is "where in the world is wall dough?" with the more likely reply being "where did you get this sticky idea to demand play dough or zap zap until Amurka is a grape again?"

Meanwhile, many are saying it would be better to miss SOTOS altogether (Dept. of Justice Conspiracy Theories, 2, 3, 4).

The previous post in this series is not here it is here.

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A Brump preview of the SOTOS ...

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Etiology of Social Dementia - 18

Once upon a civilization

I. Individual Dementia Pales In

Comparison To Group Dementia

This post declares that The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump is not as dangerous as the group dementia that produced him is.

The simple argument supporting that declaration is that he is only one person.

He is an individual who is a member of a group of about 62,984,825 people who, in varying degrees (0-100), have the same group dementia.

One thing that has happened to most civilizations is something that has been fatal to each and every one of them.

That something is the dementia that produces and ends up in 'suicide':

"In other words, a society does not ever die 'from natural causes', but always dies from suicide or murder --- and nearly always from the former, as this chapter has shown."

(A Study of History, by Arnold J. Toynbee). There is no cure for the final symptom of that group dementia (there is only prevention by way of avoiding it altogether in the first place).

The components of that group dementia were pointed out in an encyclopedia article concerning the historian quoted above:

"In the Study Toynbee examined the rise and fall of 26 civilizations in the course of human history, and he concluded that they rose by responding successfully to challenges under the leadership of creative minorities composed of elite leaders. Civilizations declined when their leaders stopped responding creatively, and the civilizations then sank owing to the sins of nationalism, militarism, and the tyranny of a despotic minority. Unlike Spengler in his The Decline of the West, Toynbee did not regard the death of a civilization as inevitable, for it may or may not continue to respond to successive challenges. Unlike Karl Marx, he saw history as shaped by spiritual, not economic forces" ...

(Encyclopedia Britannica, emphasis added). The show stopper (in terms of remedy, in this type of group dementia) is that it is a contagious dementia.

That form of dementia is contagious whether individual dementia is or is not contagious (see e.g. The Red Hot Debate about Transmissible Alzheimer's, Can Dementia Be Contagious?).

Group dynamics, in this context, are contagions to those who become ideological members of a demented group within a society.

Applying that to current society, we can easily recognize the rampant nationalism and militarism in our culture.

Focusing on the third factor ("tyranny of a despotic minority") tends to be much more difficult.

So here are the numbers concerning the minority we are talking about:

Clinton
65,853,516
48.18%

Trump
62,984,825
46.09%

(Federal Election Commission). A minority consisting of some 62,984,825 people voted for President Trump (but it was a smaller subgroup within that group who cast the 304 electoral votes that actually won the election for him).

II. On The Meaning of 'Despotic' and 'Minority'

The historian Toynbee (quoted in Section I above) identified the suicidal characteristics of the despotic minority group as nationalism, militarism, and tyranny (Reeling From Flynn Deal, Alex Jones Issues Civil War ‘Red Alert’—for 15th Time in Two Months).

The 62,984,825 voters are a minority, and the 65,853,516 are a majority by definition (a slim 2.09% majority).

Moving on to 'despotic,' we find that in that violent insurrection oriented group sense, it is associated with despotism:

... societies which limit respect and power to specific groups have also been called despotic.

(Wikipedia). There need not be a dictator or other autocratic individual in order to meet Toynbee's description set forth in his study, especially in the sense of the description "the tyranny of a despotic minority."

In this sense, a minority means a group composed of a population less than the majority of a society (but wielding substantial directional influence).

Note that this would not be possible in the United States if it was a democracy rather than a constitutional republic with an Electoral College that can elect presidents without a majority popular vote (as in the 2016 election of Donald Trump).

To fit into the Toynbee description, all that is needed is that the group be despotic in nature, which is to be 'authoritarian' (a synonym).

This type of authoritarian despotism requires two fundamental characteristics:

Authoritarianism is something authoritarian followers and authoritarian leaders cook up between themselves. It happens when the followers submit too much to the leaders, trust them too much, and give them too much leeway to do whatever they want -- which often is something undemocratic, tyrannical and brutal. In my day, authoritarian fascist and authoritarian communist dictatorships posed the biggest threats to democracies, and eventually lost to them in wars both hot and cold. But authoritarianism itself has not disappeared, and I'm going to present the case in this book that the greatest threat to American democracy today arises from a militant authoritarianism that has become a cancer upon the nation.

(The Authoritarians, book by Bob Altemeyer, Associate Professor, Department of Psychology, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada, PDF). Put those two together (leaders and followers) in a group with despotic ideology and we have a structure matching and composing a despotic group of the type that historian Toynbee wrote about.

But, in this case the despotism is "soft despotism" to wit:

"Soft despotism is a term coined by Alexis de Tocqueville describing the state into which a country overrun by "a network of small complicated rules" might degrade. Soft despotism is different from despotism (also called 'hard despotism') in the sense that it is not obvious to the people.

Soft despotism gives people the illusion that they are in control, when in fact they have very little influence over their government. Soft despotism breeds fear, uncertainty, and doubt in the general populace. Alexis de Tocqueville observed that this trend was avoided in America only by the "habits of the heart" of its 19th-century populace."

(Soft Despotism, Wikipedia). The way the despotism is maintained by a minority has been explained by "the father of spin" (The Ways of Bernays).

III. The Current Soft Despotism
Is Hardening Into Tribalism

The concept of tribalism is probably easier for us to understand, because it has been engineered to fruition in our time:

"But then we don’t really have to wonder what it’s like to live in a tribal society anymore, do we? Because we already do. Over the past couple of decades in America, the enduring, complicated divides of ideology, geography, party, class, religion, and race have mutated into something deeper, simpler to map, and therefore much more ominous. I don’t just mean the rise of political polarization (although that’s how it often expresses itself), nor the rise of political violence (the domestic terrorism of the late 1960s and ’70s was far worse), nor even this country’s ancient black-white racial conflict (though its potency endures).

I mean a new and compounding combination of all these differences into two coherent tribes, eerily balanced in political power, fighting not just to advance their own side but to provoke, condemn, and defeat the other."

(America Wasn’t Built for Humans). The group psychology at work forming our minds and thoughts when tribalism prevails is enmity towards "the other."

Recent scientific papers have pointed out that our culture, and in some cases our subculture, is "remodeling" our brains all the time:

"Beyond such internal mechanisms of variation, environment-driven plasticity lends yet another layer of complexity to the brain. The brain is capable of remarkable remodeling in response to experience. Signals originating from the environment can cause both widespread and localized adaptations. At the level of individual cells, structure and function are continually changing with the environment in a dance of lifelong brain plasticity, and some experiences, such as stress or physical exercise, affect the growth, survival, and fate of newborn neurons in neurogenic regions of the brain.
...
Traditionally, cells are defined by the tissue to which they belong as well as their particular functional role or morphology. This classification represents a developmental trajectory that begins early in embryogenesis and is hardwired into each cell. But other differences among cells are more subtle. Multi-dimensional analyses of gene expression and other metrics have revealed remarkable heterogeneity among cells of the same traditional “type.” Cells exist in different degrees of maturation, activation,plasticity, and morphology. Once we begin to consider all of the subtle cell-to-cell variations, it becomes clear that the number of cell types is much greater than ever imagined. In fact, it may be more appropriate to place some cells along a continuum rather than into categories at all.
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Brain cells in particular may be as unique as the people to which they belong. This genetic, molecular, and morphological diversity of the brain leads to functional variation that is likely necessary for the higher-order cognitive processes that are unique to humans. Such mosaicism may have a dark side, however. Although neuronal diversification is normal, it is possible that there is an optimal extent of diversity for brain function and that anything outside those bounds—too low or too high—may be pathological. For example, if neurons fail to function optimally in their particular role or environment, deficits could arise. Similarly, if neurons diversify and become too specialized to a given role, they may lose the plasticity required to change and function normally within a larger circuit. As researchers continue to probe the enormous complexity of the brain at the single-cell level, they will likely begin to uncover the answers to these questions—as well as those we haven’t even thought to ask yet."

(Hypothesis: The Cultural Amygdala - 5). We know more about some of those dynamics than those previous civilizations did, civilizations that went down by "suicide" (self-destruction).

Will that superior scientific knowledge we have be sufficient to make us aware of ways to avoid the suicidal fate that engulfed previous groups (which we call "civilizations") recorded in our written history?

IV. Conclusion

The previous post in this series is here.

Will Elections Cure The Disease? - 3

Fig. 1 General James Mattis (Ret.)

In the previous post in this series I wondered about the problem the military is going to have with the climate change denier triumph in the elections (assuming the one with the least popular votes wins the recount).

The video of Professor Wilkerson at the end of this post points out that it is possible that a military coup could take place considering the dire national security ramifications of denying the greatest threat to national security.

What is not clear to me, at this time, is why the republicans in the Senate and the House are so happy with General Mattis as the nominated candidate for Secretary of Defense.

I say that because General Mattis understands military doctrine on climate change:

Retired US Marine Corps brigadier general Stephen Cheney said the willingness of Donald Trump’s head of defence to resist ideological pressure to reject climate science could have a profound effect on the nation’s security.

“There’s a fair percentage of conflicts today that have a linkage to climate change that was not previously there,” he said. These include the Arab Spring and Syrian civil war – two insurrections that define world politics and security today.

Global warming also plays a part in long-term military planning and identification of future risks areas. For almost a decade, US defence department reports have recognised climate change as a “threat multiplier for instability”. As such, it is now routinely addressed in military strategy.
...
Cheney, who had a 30-year career in the military, said he did not know of a single top general – those who might have access to the White House or defence secretary – who did not understand and accept the risks of climate change.

“I don’t know anybody who fits that paradigm, I don’t. But being candid. I’m sure there are some there. And maybe there are some who kept their mouth shut not to go against administration policy, who now will feel I don’t have to toe their line anymore. I can’t come out and say I don’t believe in this stuff,” he said.

(General Mattis Gets Climate Change). The climate change issue, for obvious reasons, is part of military training now:

A new directive says forces need to undertake joint training exercises with allies to “enhance capacity” and “improve tactics” for tackling impacts linked to global warming.

“Mission planning and execution must include identification and assessment of the effects of climate change on the DoD [department of defence] mission,” it reads.

Under DOD DIRECTIVE 4715.21 chiefs of staff, equipment buyers and health advisers will need to integrate climate change into any new purchases, missions or infrastructure plans.

The document, which is signed off by Robert Work, deputy secretary of Defense, calls for greater work with climate scientists to “reduce risk and promote mission execution.”

Planners must “integrate climate change considerations into mission area analyses and acquisition strategies across the life cycle of weapons systems, platforms, and equipment.”

Medical staff will need to update training to “address effects on personnel, including changes in extreme temperatures, precipitation patterns, and disease vector distribution.”

Despite stiff opposition from many Republicans, the Pentagon has released a stream of climate-related warnings, research and adopted new clean energy policies in the past eight years.

In 2014 chiefs of staff said it was “overwhelmingly clear” that climate change posed a security risk to the country.

Last year the NATO military alliance war-gamed the use of wind and solar energy systems, while the US Navy recently launched a ‘Green Fleet’ partly powered by biofuels.

(US Military Trains For Climate Change). One way of describing the situation, IMO and in the opinion of many others, is:  The Most Dangerous Country on Earth.

Other related links:

Global Climate & Homeland Insecurity, 2 (Dredd Blog 2009 citing: think tank report by military advisers, PDF)

National Security & The Threat of Climate Change

Military Leaders Agree with Pentagon: Climate Change an “Immediate Risk to National Security”

General Ron Keys Talks Climate Change and Security in Iowa

General Keys: The military thinks climate change is serious

Global Warming Research in Danger as Trump Appoints Climate Skeptic to NASA Team

Rockefeller [Standard Oil] Descendants Call ExxonMobil 'Morally Bankrupt' Over Climate Change

Sanders burns House committee for sharing Breitbart article denying climate change

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

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"We spend more on national security than the rest of the world combined ..."

"The Military is the lead federal agency on climate change ... and that is ... extremely dangerous ... we may lose the republic ..." - Professor Wilkerson (video)

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Will Elections Cure The Disease? - 2

Fig. 1 Enhanced USGS table

ONE. About six years ago, in the first post of this series, I asked the question presented in the title.

The question tends to conjure up the notion that for every cure there is a disease (or is it the other way around?).

Historically, as concerns civilization cures, that has not been the case.

Civilizations have all gone down due to murder or suicide, the latter holding the lead at this time ("In other words, a society does not ever die 'from natural causes', but always dies from suicide or murder --- and nearly always from the former, as this chapter has shown." - A Study of History, by Arnold J. Toynbee).

We sometimes wonder if our nuclear civilization is above all that:

As time goes on in the USA, fewer and fewer people think that election time is a time to bring some cure to the governing process.

It is more often than not a time to express anger.

A time to throw some bums out in anger, not really contemplating the consequences of simply venting anger so much that worse candidates replace the current losers.

Is this a symptom of something?

If I were to say that ... more U.S. citizens will begin to lose their minds than will lose homes, jobs, or health care, would you believe it?

(Will Elections Cure The Disease?). Remember that one of the technical characteristics of cultural dementia, like individual dementia, is being unaware of one's location (You Are Here).

The current election aftermath season supercharges the notion that entire cultures and even civilizations can become demented to the point of being lost in space (in the sense of not even knowing which planet one inhabits):

Donald Trump Still Thinks Climate Change Is ‘A Bunch Of Bunk’

Priebus confirms that climate denial will be the official policy of Trump’s administration

The greatest threat to national security (in the thinking of the military and the scientific community) is global warming induced climate change:

Every branch of the United States Military is worried about climate change. They have been since well before it became controversial.
...
At a time when Presidents Ronald Reagan and Bush 41, and even British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, called for binding international protocols to control greenhouse gas emissions, the U.S. Military was seriously studying global warming in order to determine what actions they could take to prepare for the change in threats that our military will face in the future.

The Center for Naval Analysis has had its Military Advisory Board examining the national security implications of climate change for many years. Lead by Army General Paul Kern, the Military Advisory Board is a group of 16 retired flag-level officers from all branches of the Service.

This is not a group normally considered to be liberal activists and fear-mongers.
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[the article quotes Eugene Skolnikoff:] "The central problem is that outside the security sector, policy processes confronting issues with substantial uncertainty do not normally yield policy that has high economic or political costs. This is especially true when the uncertainty extends not only to the issues themselves, but also to the measures to avert them or deal with their consequences.

The climate change issue illustrates – in fact exaggerates – all the elements of this central problem. Indeed, no major action is likely to be taken until those uncertainties are substantially reduced, and probably not before evidence of warming and its effects are actually visible. Unfortunately, any increase in temperature will be irreversible by the time the danger becomes obvious enough to permit political action."

(Does Our Military Know Something We Don't?, emphasis added). Consider this in the context of the shocking statement by Professor Wilkerson:

"The Military is the lead federal agency on climate change ... and that is ... extremely dangerous ... we may lose the republic ..."

(The Authoritarianism of Climate Change - 2, video at bottom). According to Professor Wilkerson, the military will coalesce into the Sun Tzu kind of coup they teach at the War College (Is War An Art or Is War A Disease?).

Fig. 2 What Will Be Censored?

TWO.  So, if you haven't guessed what I am getting at yet, I am getting at "when will the military purge the denier sections of government or instead purge the climate science ?"

The state of the union (SOTU) is that the country has been invaded in a manner that I have characterized as an invasion by Greenland & Antarctica (Greenland & Antarctica Invade The United States, 2, 3, 4; Why The Military Can't Defend Against The Invasion).

So, today let's talk about the ~three feet or ~1 meter aspect of the situation, which is the point at which the Sun Tzu kind of coup may have to take place.

Fig. 3 220.7 mm (1.07 mm yr) & counting

THREE. Feet ... yes, ~three feet (~a meter) is the degree of sea level rise that will cause the beginning serious malfunctions of international and national infrastructure organs of international trade / intercourse (Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization - 3).

That 3 foot quantity of sea level rise is only about 1% to 1.14% of the total ice of the ice sheets of the Cryosphere (Fig. 1); the percentage depending on whether or not one includes ghost-water in the calculation  (The Ghost-Water Constant, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7).

Fig. 4 ice loss: ~88,813.5 km³

The Cryosphere is composed of the ice on Greenland, Antarctica, and land glaciers.

That is the same one and only Cryosphere that is and has been melting for a long time (Humble Oil-Qaeda).

The Dredd Blog software module, which uses PSMSL tide gauge station records, calculates the 1807 - 2014 ice loss amount of the Cryosphere to be ~88,813.5 km³ (Fig. 4) using the "Golden 23 Zones" (Calling All Cars: The Case of the "Missing Six" - 5).

Those are the WOD zones in which the "Golden 23" tide gauge stations are located.

Fig. 5 ~0.28% approaching 1% to 1.14%

In the sea level realm of science those tide gauge station records provide a global indication and useful view of sea level change.

Those tide gauge stations obviously do not directly measure the highest sea levels.

That is because those highest sea levels take place out in the deep ocean far away from coasts of the large land masses where those tide gauges must be placed (The Bathtub Model Doesn't Hold Water - 3).

Nevertheless, they provide a platform of data from which to calculate the highest sea levels (think formulas for arcs, hemispheres, and spheres).

The results of those calculations are also helpful for calculating the amount of ice lost from the Cryosphere from 1807-2014 (Fig. 5).

Notice that in Fig. 4 when the sea level graphed amount falls to its lowest point circa 1866, the ice loss amount increases to its highest graphed amount, which is counter intuitive but normal (Proof of Concept - 3, The Evolution and Migration of Sea Level Hinge Points - 2).

The graph of ice loss percentages per year is shown on Fig. 5, which totals to about 0.28%, which means that we not quite a third of the way to the 1% to 1.14% threshold yet.

But, even with that seemingly small amount, right now military installations in some locations are beginning to flood, and to be abandoned at other locations, according to Professor Wilkerson (second video below).

FOUR. Elections will not solve this problem, so, we must ponder whether or not the military will "step into the vacuum" caused by what they consider to be a clueless civil government.

A clueless civil government that has deceived sixty some million folks who, in effect, voted this year to deny the existence of global warming induced climate change (Etiology of Social Dementia, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14; The Agnotology of Sea Level Rise Via Ice Melt).

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

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Changing of the Guards
by Bob Dylan
(lyrics here)

...

"Gentlemen, he said
I don’t need your organization, I’ve shined your shoes
I’ve moved your mountains and marked your cards
But Eden is burning, either brace yourself for elimination
Or else your hearts must have the courage for the changing of the guards

Peace will come
With tranquillity and splendor on the wheels of fire
But will bring us no reward when her false idols fall
And cruel death surrenders with its pale ghost retreating
Between the King and the Queen of Swords"

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The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports - 6

Troubles Rising

I. Overall Issues

Human civilization in general rejected renewable energy long ago, when it was utterly abundant, universal, and so cheap it was almost free.

The context now is: a global danger.

The question, then, is "what can culture / civilization (not individuals) do about that?" since culture / civilization rejected natural, renewable energy long ago --without our collective and our individual input.

Was anyone reading this post asked about it back in 1750 when the Industrial Revolution Rejection began to take place?

No.

The reactionary question now should be: "can this current civilization, this culture, go back to the natural renewable energy of the natural Earth ecosystem that existed back then?"

That natural, renewable energy system existed for eons, for use by pre-human species, and for use by humans once they came along.

So, those who use what is now toxic-technology to make "something new," to replace something that has existed abundantly since before any civilization had evolved, are missing something (BTW that "something" isn't imagination).

But let's get real by noticing that the at-one-time most-quoted-historian was neither optimistic nor pessimistic when he wrote:

"In other words, a society does not ever die 'from natural causes', but always dies from suicide or murder --- and nearly always from the former, as this chapter has shown."

(The Authoritarianism of Climate Change, quoting "A Study of History", by Arnold J.Toynbee). Again, he was neither optimistic nor pessimistic, he was simply being historical.

Further, the central question becomes "can this current civilization go back to natural renewable energy" rather than the central question being "is it possible in the abstract?" (remember "anything is possible" in the abstract, so that is a meaningless question).

Why is this civilization (the Anthropocine, the purveyors of the ongoing Sixth Mass Extinction) more able than the others before it? (boundless imaginary hope?)

How is our civilization more ecologically adept than those which historian Toynbee studied, then wrote about? (see quote above)

Those civilizations that committed suicide, or were murdered?

Since we all tend to think that "anything is possible" in the abstract, we should start to remember that we are not in "the abstract" (here in reality, many things are simply not possible).

Civilization  has never been in the abstract (Civilization Is Now On Suicide Watch, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).

II. Seaport Civilization Faces Itself

I have wondered a time or two if we should first go back to "a renewable ocean" (Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization, 2, 3, 4, 5).

How is that going to work for us, assuming civilization is preparing for that future:

The majority of seaports around the world are unprepared for the potentially damaging impacts of climate change in the coming century, according to a new Stanford University study.

(Stanford News). So, why is that relevant?

For one thing, we are like the long gone Phoenician civilization (The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports - 3).

Since most of our seaports are unprepared, then our civilization is likewise mostly unprepared:

Container-laden ships traverse countless supply chains from continent to continent, a method of transportation that accounts for more than 90 percent of the world trade by volume.

(Smithsonian). Do you or I, as individuals, feel ok when we are "mostly unprepared" for something?

Regardless, since civilization is a group (not individuals) civilization must be prepared if it is to honestly feel comfortable (“Insanity in individuals is something rare – but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule.” – Friedrich Nietzsche).

III. Some Sea Level Rise Graphs of Some Unprepared Seaports

I will list a few Dredd Blog Zones (see Zone In On Sea Level Change for a description of zones).

Graphs of sea level change in that zone will also be listed.

The following zones have various numbers of seaports within the zone boundaries.

Each seaport has a world ranking, in terms of volume of container trade.

These all have PSMSL tide gauge stations which began keeping sea level records in the 1800s within the zone boundary:

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Shanghai, China: rank=1
Busan, S. Korea, rank=5
Qingdao Gang, China, rank=7
Taicang, China, rank=42
Gwangyang Hang, S. Korea, rank=63
Incheon, S. Korea, rank=65

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Rotterdam, Netherlands: rank=11
Antwerp, Belguim, rank=16
Felixstowe, U.K., rank=37
Port of Le Havre, FR, rank=59
Bruges, Belguim, rank=70

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Hamburg, Germany: rank=15
Bremen, Germany, rank=23

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New York City, U.S.A.: rank=26

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IV. Conclusion

As you can see, each zone tends to have its own degree of sea level change, which impacts upon different seaports in different ways.

Thus, each one has to be analyzed, repaired, moved, modified, or abandoned based on conditions in that zone.

Some nations are already suffering as a result of giving up national strengths to then have to rely on international seaport trade (Behind the Food Lines in Venezuela).

Videos below show the rather intensive construction and modification problems facing each different area.

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"Stunning Singapore" (Something Stunning Is Taking Place Off The Coast Of Singapore)

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The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

The 1.14% vs. The 100% - 2

Writing Scientific Papers

In the first post of this series I pointed out that to keep the law in today's civilization one must become an alarmist.

As has been pointed out here on Dredd Blog, it is alarming that only 1.0 - 1.14% of ice sheet and glacial ice needs to reach the ocean to cause catastrophe (The 1.14% vs. The 100%, The Ghost-Water Constant - 3).

What are science, religion, and government for if not to warn the citizenry of dangers the people face  (New Climate Catastrophe Policy: Triage, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12)?

The answer that comes to our mind in response to that  question is a product of the culture we are born into, and our personal conclusions formulated during our lives.

Those all change from time to time.

I am inclined, at this time, to say that science, religion, and government should be for, and subject to, the common good (The Common Good, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11).

But when science, religion, and government form their own language and ideas in a vacuum far from the common good, they depart to seek what is "good" only for themselves and their "stockholders".

Don't take my word for it, check these out:

“Experience has shown that even under the best forms of government those entrusted with power have, in time, and by slow operations, perverted it into tyranny.” – Thomas Jefferson

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“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be." - Thomas Jefferson

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"Leave no authority existing not responsible to the people." - Thomas Jefferson

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“The end of the human race will be that it will eventually die of civilization.” - Ralph Waldo Emerson

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"In other words, a society does not ever die 'from natural causes', but always dies from suicide or murder --- and nearly always from the former, as this chapter has shown." - A Study of History, by Arnold J. Toynbee

(Dredd Blog Quotes Page). Climate science for professional and layperson alike has been around since dirt (Oldest Climate Change Records, Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 54).

Even military officers feel a duty toward scientific warnings for citizens who rely on them for protection:

The nature and pace of climate changes being observed today and the consequences projected by the consensus scientific opinion are grave and pose equally grave implications for our national security. Moving beyond the arguments of cause and effect, it is important that the U.S. military begin planning to address these potentially devastating effects.

(Global Climate & Homeland Insecurity - 2). Equally counter-intuitive, scientists and religionists can be the most opaque with their use of Latin or words formed in a some other secret-society like environment (Speaking in Tongues).

Some scientific papers speak in a tongue the people they say they are helping can't understand:

Here we apply the most advanced type of these models to explore, for the first time, the impact of the sea-level feedback on projections of AIS collapse under a wide range of future emission scenarios. We also adopt several models of the Earth’s viscoelastic structure in the sea-level modelling to capture the range of gravitational, rotational and bedrock deformational responses to the ice-ocean mass redistribution. We note that long timescale, large spatial scale ice-sheet modelling studies include treatments of bedrock deformation ... but recent regional studies of future AIS retreat over up to hundreds of years have kept the bedrock elevation fixed ... and none of these studies have included gravitational effects on sea level. Our results indicate that sea-level changes associated with gravitational effects and deformation of the solid Earth may impact future Antarctic ice-sheet evolution. Moreover, the adopted viscoelastic Earth structure influences the size and timing of the impact of the sea-level feedback.

(Sea-level feedback). There is no practical information in that piece for the common people, however, I am sure that the scientists involved stroked their own egos a bit (Earlier Criticism of This Concept).

Don't you think that the endangered people would rather know that only 1% to 1.14% of the ice sheets and mountain glaciers of the world need to melt in order to begin the extinction of civilization?

And especially when that tiny, tiny percentage of ice melt could be reached:

"That revelation was made by an official with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA] on Tuesday at the annual RIMS conference for risk management and insurance professionals in San Diego, Calif.

The conference is being attended by more than 10,000 people, according to organizers. It was day No. 3 of the conference, which ends Wednesday.

Margaret Davidson, NOAA’s senior advisor for coastal inundation and resilience science and services, and Michael Angelina, executive director of the Academy of Risk Management and Insurance, offered their take on climate change data in a conference session titled “Environmental Intelligence: Quantifying the Risks of Climate Change.”

Davidson said recent data that has been collected but has yet to be made official indicates sea levels could rise by roughly 3 meters or 9 feet by 2050-2060, far higher and quicker than current projections. Until now most projections have warned of seal level rise of up to 4 feet by 2100.

These new findings will likely be released in the latest sets of reports on climate change due out in the next few years.

“The latest field data out of West Antarctic is kind of an OMG thing,” she said."

(Will This Float Your Boat - 12). Scientific, religious, and government jargon that obscures the dangers to the people constitute incompetence mixed with ill will.

Stop it.

Here is an example of better communication between scientists and laypersons by Dr. James Hansen in his recent letter to Warren Buffett:

Recent scientific data indicate that continued high fossil fuel emissions will lock in sea level rise of at least 6-9 meters (20-30 feet). Almost all coastal cities, including most of the world’s largest cities, would be lost. Large impacts may not begin for several decades, but this delayed response of the ponderous climate system spells danger for young people. We can pass a point of no return, where it becomes impossible to avoid future Antarctic ice sheet disintegration and loss of coastal cities. Economic devastation and refugees could make the world ungovernable.

So, Mr. Buffett, I am heartened by the words in your last annual report, where you conclude that continued inaction on climate change “is foolhardy.” You wrote: “Call this Noah’s Law: If an Ark may be essential for survival (your emphasis), begin building it today.”

(Scientist Communicates With Billionaire). It is even ok to start building it "yesterday" in some cases.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

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Choose Your Trances Carefully - 6

About that civilization virus

I. The Stage

Academics know that the word "civilization" has been "doublespoken" by violent propaganda (Life under the Chief Doublespeak Officer, cf. The New Doublespeak: Why No OneKnows What Anyone's Saying Anymore, New White Trash: Doublewide Doublespeak).

Way too many American English words also have been doublespoken, which is a deadly phenomenon (Good Nomenclature: A Matter of Life and Death).

Honest language is an essential essence to alleviate shadowy notions that have been injected into the word "civilization."

Yes, like with a "coffee" cup that we can pour many liquids besides coffee into, some poisonous some not, we can doublespeak words until they also become poisonous.

II. "Worse Than Previously Thought"

If you think that "civilization" has only one meaning, and that one meaning equates to nothing but good, to the point that nothing cataclysmic can go wrong, then please explain what the once upon a time most-often-quoted historian had to say about the subject:

"In other words, a society does not ever die 'from natural causes', but always dies from suicide or murder --- and nearly always from the former, as this chapter has shown."

(A Study of History, by Arnold J. Toynbee). May I ask: "if murder and suicide are the common thread of civilizations past, what pray tell does "civilization" mean then?

It is true that the word has meant different things to different people, such as one celebrated American, Ralph Waldo Emerson:

Emerson’s later work, such as The Conduct of Life (1860), favored a more moderate balance between individual nonconformity and broader societal concerns. He advocated for the abolition of slavery and continued to lecture across the country throughout the 1860s.

By the 1870s the aging Emerson was known as “the sage of Concord.” Despite his failing health, he continued to write, publishing Society and Solitude in 1870 and a poetry collection titled Parnassus in 1874.

Emerson died on April 27, 1882, in Concord. His beliefs and his idealism were strong influences on the work of his protégé Henry David Thoreau and his contemporary Walt Whitman, as well as numerous others. His writings are considered major documents of 19th-century American literature, religion and thought.

(Bio). Emerson influenced Thoreau, Whitman, and other respected academics and non-academics alike.

So, why did Emerson say:

“The end of the human race will be that it will eventually die of civilization.”

(Ralph Waldo Emerson). In the 19th Century he perceived something, discovered something, or observed something that gave him a disconcerting understanding of the future of "civilization."

It was no light matter to him, because he came to the point of seeing "civilization" as the destroyer of the human species.

Scientists of the day had access to the same evidence that Emerson analyzed, but like scientists and poets today, they did not have a unified understanding of the essential meaning of "civilization":

"Darwin relied on much the same evidence for evolution that Lamarck did ..." - Understanding Evolution

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“One would say that [man] is destined to exterminate himself after having rendered the globe uninhabitable.” - Lamarck (1817)

(See Genesis: The Evolution of Biology, by Jan Sapp, p. 274, fn. 14; quoting from Lamark's writings)

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"Lastly, I could show fight on natural selection having done and doing more for the progress of civilisation than you seem inclined to admit. Remember what risks nations of Europe ran, not so many centuries ago, of being overwhelmed by the Turks, and how ridiculous such an idea now is! The more civilized so-called Caucasian races have beaten the Turkish hollow in the struggle for existence. Looking to the world at no very distant date, what an endless number of the lower races [Chuck was a tad-bit racist eh?] will have been eliminated by the higher civilized races throughout the world." - Charles Darwin (1881)

(emphasis added). So, those who studied biology came to different conclusions about the meaning of "civilization" (e.g. Lamarck essentially agreeing with Emerson, but not so much so with Darwin).

Darwin thought that social evolution would purify "civilization" by exterminating the "inferior, less evolved" races.

As to mystics, Gandhi implied that "civilization" is a good idea if ever attained: "What do I think of Western civilization? I think it would be a very good idea" (Mahatma Gandhi).

Yet, Gandhi did not base his observation of "civilization" on a militaristic dominance: "The greatness of a nation can be judged by the way its animals are treated" (Mahatma Gandhi).

The doublespeak concerning "civilization" seems to be both an ancient as well as a modern phenomenon.

III. Civilization Is a Group

The double-mindedness concerning the meaning of the word "civilization" may have been based on, and still may be based on, observations of group dynamics.

For example, “Insanity in individuals is something rare – but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule.” – Friedrich Nietzsche

Evidently "the father of Psychoanalysis" came to see that there is something to Nietzsche's observation:

"If the evolution of civilization has such a far-reaching similarity with the development of an individual, and if the same methods are employed in both, would not the diagnosis be justified that many systems of civilization—or epochs of it—possibly even the whole of humanity—have become neurotic under the pressure of the civilizing trends? To analytic dissection of these neuroses, therapeutic recommendations might follow which could claim a great practical interest. I would not say that such an attempt to apply psychoanalysis to civilized society would be fanciful or doomed to fruitlessness. But it behooves us to be very careful, not to forget that after all we are dealing only with analogies, and that it is dangerous, not only with men but also with concepts, to drag them out of the region where they originated and have matured. The diagnosis of collective neuroses, moreover, will be confronted by a special difficulty. In the neurosis of an individual we can use as a starting-point the contrast presented to us between the patient and his environment which we assume to be normal. No such background as this would be available for any society similarly affected; it would have to be supplied in some other way. And with regard to any therapeutic application of our knowledge, what would be the use of the most acute analysis of social neuroses, since no one possesses power to compel the community to adopt the therapy? In spite of all these difficulties, we may expect that one day someone will venture upon this research into the pathology of civilized communities.
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Men have brought their powers of subduing the forces of nature to such a pitch that by using them they could now very easily exterminate one another to the last man. They know this——hence arises a great part of their current unrest, their dejection, their mood of apprehension."

(Civilization And Its Discontents, p. 39-40, PDF, emphasis added). Senator Lindsey Graham recently broke the ice and diagnosed his group as "batshit crazy" (US News).

Perhaps we need more of that type of analysis, because, for example The Romney's personal diagnosis of the election success of The Donald results in blaming the votes of a multitude of voters on an individual, i.e., on The Donald.

The notion of "group analysis" that Freud advocated would come to a different diagnosis.

It would likely diagnose the group of voters as neurotic, the same group that Senator Graham diagnosed as "batshit crazy" (cf. The Donald University vs. The Lord GOP University).

IV. Culture Is A Group Phenomenon

The essence of "culture" can be dealt with effectively in the same manner because it is a group characteristic and dynamic too:

That paper should now be seriously considered because it seeks to analyze some of the behavior in the terms that Dredd Blog has advocated for a few years now.

We have been arguing that such analysis would be more likely to lead to revelations of systemic dysfunction, then hopefully lead to remedies:

In this theoretically informed study I explore the broader cultural changes that created the conditions for the credit crisis of 2008. Drawing on psychoanalysis and its application to organizational and social dynamics, I develop a theoretical framework around the notion of a manic culture, comprised of four aspects: denial; omnipotence; triumphalism; and over-activity. I then apply this to the credit crisis and argue that the events of 2008 were preceded by an incubation period lasting for over two decades during which a culture of mania developed. Then, focusing especially on the Japanese and South East Asia/LTCM crises, I argue that a series of major ruptures in capitalism during this incubation period served not as warnings, but as opportunities for a manic response, thereby dramatically increasing the risks involved. I also argue that this mania was triggered and strengthened by triumphant feelings in the West over the collapse of communism. I suggest therefore that this manic culture played a significant role in creating the conditions for the problems that led to the credit crisis.

(A Culture of Mania, by Dr. Mark Stein, 2011, emphasis added). A free PDF of the entire paper is available for download.

Dr. Stein goes through the structural components of mania sequentially applying those components to the cognition and behavior of professionals in a group, an organization, which qualifies as a meme complex.

(When You Are Governed By Psychopaths - 2). Senator Graham boiled it down, while Dr. Stein elaborated at length.

Both psychoanalysts were quite effective.

V. Conclusion

I think I have made the point by using the words that have been seriously given to us by observers down through time.

And upon occasion, I have also used words of a more recent, but equally availing nature:

People'd call, say,"Beware doll, you're bound to fall."
You thought they were all kiddin' you

(Like A Rolling Stone). The study of the foggy concept of "civilization" ends up revealing a trance or two, which are hopefully useful to ponder.

So, from now on: Choose Your Trances Carefully !

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.