Seaports With Sea Level Change - 30

Fig. 1 CMA CGM Jules Verne

I. Background

Verbal patterns can be as interesting as cloud patterns, star patterns, and hand patterns (Square Finger 'Splainin').

Over the better part of the past couple of decades Dredd Blog has pointed out that in various scenarios one of the most often quoted descriptions of large-scale events is something like "worse than previously thought" (e.g. In Search Of Ocean Heat - 8, The Warming Science Commentariat - 12, Choose Your Trances Carefully - 7).

That media habit continues unabated in a recent report that included the phrase ("faster than previously thought"):

"Such high melt rates concentrated in kilometer-wide grounding zones contrast with the traditional plume model of grounding line melt which predicts zero melt. High rates of simulated basal melting in grounded glacier ice in numerical models will increase the glacier sensitivity to ocean warming and potentially double projections of sea level rise ... Our results have vast implications for the modeling of glaciers terminating in ocean waters." 

(Melt rates in the kilometer-size grounding zone of Petermann Glacier, Greenland, before and during a retreat, PNAS, emphasis added). Not only that, it impacts sea level fall near an ice sheet, which means more than "potentially double projections of sea level rise" in those places when that falling sea level sea water is relocated to (nearer to the equator) by the Earth's gravity, rotation, etc.

The common myth that the impact of sea level change is mainly going to happen to people who live along the coastlines is a diversion from the fact that "more than 95 percent of U.S. international trade moves through the nation's ports and harbors" (NOAA Ports).

That common myth arises from not only the mass media, but also from scientists who are guided by funding and management to "not scare people" (The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports, 2015);

It is not only the media and sleepy scientists who deceive the public, no, business people influence others to act dangerously because those business people prefer ungodly riches over safe harbors of many kinds:

"An influential shipping industry group has quietly warned shippers to think carefully before they sign up for a new plan to reduce pollution and eventually eliminate their contribution to climate change.

The International Chamber of Shipping represents four fifths of the world’s commercial fleet, and in 2021 committed to the Paris Agreement’s target to reduce greenhouse gases down to zero by 2050. “Talk is cheap, action is difficult,” chairman Esben Poulsson said at the time.

But a confidential document obtained by The Associated Press shows the International Chamber of Shipping advised its national branches in March that member companies should 'give careful consideration to the possible implications' before committing to a new plan to reduce maritime emissions."

(AP news, emphasis added). Good on AP news for reporting that.

We can and must all change for the better under the appropriate conditions.

The demise of civilizations has always come about by coordinated efforts by leaders such as the International Chamber of Shipping, urging others to go in a wrong direction (How To Identify The Despotic Minority - 14).

And they are rewarded, in the moment, by cohorts, as they secretly plot otherwise, such as intending "to accelerate the production, transport and use of low-carbon fuels that will be transported by shipping for the world" (ibid).

"Low carbon" is a term used by those who "can't see the forest for the trees", because it's the cumulative amount of carbon used that is causing global warming induced climate change, not the number of carbon atoms in a gallon or liter.

The world population is increasing, so the only way to decrease the amount of greenhouse gases is to stop using carbon containing/polluting substances.

That is, decreasing the amount of carbon per gallon is overcome by the increasing number of gallons used by a growing population (in our current situation).

Thus, the focus must stay on the amount of greenhouse gasses we emit into our atmosphere, and keeping that quantity to a constantly declining amount.

II. Ghostery

The paper just published and quoted from above ("Melt rates in the kilometer-size grounding zone") indicates that melt-rate software models set the parameter for the melt-rate at the grounding line to zero:

"Most ice sheet models employ parameterization of ice melt that assumes zero melt at a grounding line that does not migrate with tides. It has been especially recommended not to apply melt in model mesh elements that cross the grounding line.Prior modeling studies have questioned the assumption of a grounding line with zero melt." 

[so it is no mystery at all why the result they produce is also zero]

"Such high melt rates concentrated in kilometer-wide grounding zones contrast with the traditional plume model of grounding line melt which predicts zero melt."

(ibid). That is one reason Dredd Blog has used the word "ghost water" to refer to the massive amounts of melt taking place at or near the grounding line (The Ghost Plumes, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15; The Ghost Photons, 2, 3; The Ghost-Water Constant, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9).

Eventually NASA cleared up the issue by confirming the phenomenon (NASA Busts The Ghost).

Anyway, in the series "The Ghost Photons" Dredd Blog pointed out that one of the problems the current oceanographers have is that they do not use quantum mechanics nor the current oceanographic standard (TEOS-10) when calculating the thermodynamics of heat flow from seawater into tidewater glaciers.

This problem was further elaborated on in another Dredd Blog series (Quantum Oceanography, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16).

The oceanographers have in the past generally mislead business officials, such as those who influence actions of shipping company executives (International Chamber of Shipping), mentioned in Section I above.

III. Closing Comments

A recent Bureau of Atomic Scientists proclamation, when they were moving the settings of "The Doomsday Clock", fingered the media (including the oceanography media) as actors in the existential threats to civilization:

"On 20 January 2022, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists set their infamous Doomsday Clock at 100 seconds to midnight for the third year running. Their accompanying report — entitled ‘At Doom’s Doorstep’ — identified three key factors which brought humanity “the closest it has ever been to civilisation-ending apocalypse.

Two of these factors are unlikely to surprise many readers: namely, climate change and the growing threat of nuclear war. The third might be a little surprising: 'a corrupted information ecosphere that undermines rational decision-making'. Though some media outlets do deal with the concentration of media influence, this is rarely seen as an existential threat."

(Humble Oil-Qaeda - 3, quoting Professor Chomsky, 2023). Yes, bad information in the form of pabulum is an existential threat.

But well before existence is extinguished, it is likely that the sea ports will fail.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

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