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Sunday, July 21, 2024

Seaports On Top Of The World - 3

It only takes a comparatively little bit

Sci-fi movies sensationally depict the impact of sea level change (SLC) as impacting us by drowning the Statue of Liberty:

"Unfortunately, global sea levels are going to start rising much faster within the next few decades. While Lady Liberty might not need swim lessons, parts of the United States will see as much as 1–2 feet by 2050—with climate tipping points threatening to multiply the challenges. Read on for more about sea level rise, and what we can do to prepare for the climate realities before us." 

(Sea Level Rise 101). That article does not mention seaports, sea level fall, thermal contraction, or the actual thermal expansion dynamics.

Which is typical of The Warming Science Commentariat - 12.

There is little wonder that the Doomsday clock report included them in the 'list of three' existential threats (see Seaports With Sea Level Change - 30). 

Fundamental SLC dynamics should be more important to the mass media because only a small-by-comparison amount of SLC can destroy the dynamics of current civilization:

Some countries will be more severely impacted than others will be when seaport based international sea trade is impacted:

"By volume, more than 95 percent of U.S. international trade moves through the nation's ports and harbors, with about 50 percent of these goods being hazardous materials."
(NOAA Ports). Truth be known we generally can't fathom the catastrophe that could happen caused by unabated SLC.

(Seaports With Sea Level Change). Today's appendices feature the same ocean areas used in a recent Dredd Blog post (On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction - 51) but they use a combined source for temperature and salinity input in contrast with those appendices in that earlier Dredd Blog post.

Those previous appendices are HTML tables with the same ocean area names as today's appendices which said names are: ArcticEquatorial Atlantic, Equatorial Indian, Equatorial Pacific, Mediterranean, North Atlantic, North Indian, North Pacific, South Atlantic, Southern, South Indian, and South Pacific.

Nevertheless, if you check them out there are differences, but those differences are not proof that thermal expansion is a major factor of sea level rise, no, it's the opposite that is proven once again.

The totals for the new input configuration are:

Ocean Area count: 12; Total Years of data: 479

Total thermal expansion/contraction: 180.13 mm

Average thermal expansion/contraction per year: 0.38 mm
(180.13 ÷ 479)

Percent of current 3.6 mm sea level rise per year: 10.45 %
(0.38 ÷ 3.6 x 100)

(Appendix totals). Today's appendix totals are different, though, because where there was no in situ data available in the WOD database for a particular zone's year and depth, a median value was used (max+min ÷ 2).

In the previous appendices only the maximum temperature and salinity values for all ocean areas was used..

But, the purpose remains the same for all of them: 

1) to show that temperature change is the foundation of thermal expansion and contraction change (not temperature alone); 

2) thermal expansion and contraction change is not a major contributor to sea level change; and 

3) the melting of the Cryosphere is the main contributor by far.

The previous post in this series is here.


Dr. Jerry Mitrovica:



Shorter video:

at ~31:14: "By taking the [global] average you're assuming something, and you're assuming it implicitly. You're assuming what we call the bathtub model." - Dr. Mitrovica



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