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| Fig. 1 WOD data |
I. Background
It is about time to turn the page on the discussion about the thermal expansion hypothesis.
If I haven't made it clear enough by now, I doubt that I ever will.
I recently downloaded additional PSMSL data as well as WOD data which I have been using to debunk the mythical belief that "thermal expansion has caused MOST sea level rise now and in the past."
After today's post, it is probably time to close down the efforts in this and other posts about that myth.
During these efforts, I also updated some software modules so that the background data is described and understood a bit better (e.g. The Warming Science Commentariat - 9, GRAVITY: It's Wireless).
So, today let's revisit some East Coast WOD Zones and compare the ocean temperatures with the sea level changes, now that we once again have both PSMSL and WOD data available.
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| Fig. 2 PSMSL data |
But, before we get into the recorded scientific history of what is happening in the ocean depths, kindly furnished to us by well meaning scientists, let's reflect on why this is important to know:
"Climate change is new and complex. We don't have all the answers. We are still learning how exactly the Earth reacts to increased CO2 and other greenhouse gases. We know it leads to warming seas which are melting the North and the South Poles, rising and starting to swallow entire coastal areas in the US and elsewhere, as the New York Times article documents. We know that the warming rising seas will swallow entire island nations that are about 25 percent of the UN vote and perhaps at the end, even our civilization. This realization is traumatic and the first reaction to trauma is denial. Since there is some remaining scientific uncertainty, a natural response is to deny that change is occurring. This is natural but it is very dangerous. Signs of a poorly understood but treatable house fire requires action, not inaction. While denial leads to certainty, it is only the certainty of death. This is true for individuals and also for civilizations."(Global Warming and the Future of Humanity: An Interview With Noam Chomsky and Graciela Chichilnisky, 9/17/2016, emphasis added). Note that government was warned in 1988 but the response was denial (Global Warming Has Begun, Expert Tells Senate, 1988) after Oil-Qaeda responded with anti-remedial propaganda campaigns (Smoke & Fumes).
II. What America's Most Trusted Source Says
For years it has been pointed out here on Dredd Blog that the military is the most trusted institution (Stockholm Syndrome on Steroids?, posted on 7/23/2010; Stockholm Syndrome on Steroids? - 2, posted on 11/7/2011).
And for that long or longer here on Dredd Blog, it has been pointed out that the military considers climate change to not only be real, but also that it is a national security threat (Global Climate & Homeland Insecurity, posted on 7/14/2009; Global Climate & Homeland Insecurity - 2, posted on 4/26/2016).
There are a lot more reasons why the science about climate change should be free from myths, and instead should be made robust with solid factual support for any hypothesis that is advanced.
III. Off The Coast of New York Town
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| Fig. 3 Eight WOD Zones |
The graphic labeled as Fig. 3 has a red outline of eight WOD zones that are along the U.S. East Coast.
The graphs at Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 reveal what the measurements in those eight WOD Zones are telling us, which is the same thing that the measurements in zones all along the equator told us (thermal expansion is not a major factor in sea level rise and fall: GRAVITY: It's Wireless).
IV. Sea Level Data
The following data contain the WOD Zone list of zones outlined with a red line in Fig. 3.
There are also links to PSMSL tide gauge stations where the sea level records were made.
These data were used to produce the graphs in Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 above:
Zone [7207] had [7] stations:
Stn# 1646, Stn# 1928, Stn# 563, Stn# 2288, Stn# 2021, Stn# 2287, Stn# 1934
Zone [7208] had [27] stations:
Stn# 2286, Stn# 2289, Stn# 1297, Stn# 1909, Stn# 690, Stn# 526, Stn# 2296, Stn# 1193, Stn# 1714, Stn# 199, Stn# 428, Stn# 1638, Stn# 520, Stn# 1106, Stn# 1107, Stn# 188, Stn# 1701, Stn# 1187, Stn# 1424, Stn# 363, Stn# 1717, Stn# 1696, Stn# 1669, Stn# 270, Stn# 1182, Stn# 1858, Stn# 2123
Zone [7209] had [15] stations:
Stn# 918, Stn# 1020, Stn# 497, Stn# 1038, Stn# 919, Stn# 922, Stn# 538, Stn# 725, Stn# 828, Stn# 161, Stn# 920, Stn# 1835, Stn# 440, Stn# 2297, Stn# 1903
Zone [7307] had [35] stations:
Stn# 234, Stn# 1721, Stn# 1651, Stn# 1720, Stn# 1444, Stn# 862, Stn# 1431, Stn# 2294, Stn# 396, Stn# 2295, Stn# 719, Stn# 1636, Stn# 945, Stn# 399, Stn# 462, Stn# 1635, Stn# 299, Stn# 597, Stn# 1295, Stn# 481, Stn# 360, Stn# 971, Stn# 412, Stn# 1203, Stn# 311, Stn# 148, Stn# 1338, Stn# 636, Stn# 1337, Stn# 224, Stn# 2292, Stn# 135, Stn# 786, Stn# 1153, Stn# 180
Zone [7405] had [5] stations:
Stn# 1044, Stn# 392, Stn# 2135, Stn# 1321, Stn# 393
Zone [7406] had [30] stations:
Stn# 195, Stn# 1230, Stn# 1158, Stn# 1259, Stn# 96, Stn# 1332, Stn# 1299, Stn# 1121, Stn# 2031, Stn# 427, Stn# 1330, Stn# 1143, Stn# 1326, Stn# 1309, Stn# 1138, Stn# 1349, Stn# 2069, Stn# 1358, Stn# 1213, Stn# 1199, Stn# 138, Stn# 1597, Stn# 1284, Stn# 1219, Stn# 1218, Stn# 1279, Stn# 525, Stn# 1524, Stn# 1081, Stn# 332
Zone [7407] had [35] stations:
Stn# 1223, Stn# 999, Stn# 173, Stn# 201, Stn# 137, Stn# 1798, Stn# 126, Stn# 1005, Stn# 144, Stn# 387, Stn# 951, Stn# 192, Stn# 1244, Stn# 1392, Stn# 1654, Stn# 366, Stn# 12, Stn# 1637, Stn# 519, Stn# 875, Stn# 848, Stn# 362, Stn# 856, Stn# 1068, Stn# 429, Stn# 430, Stn# 351, Stn# 776, Stn# 367, Stn# 1111, Stn# 775, Stn# 235, Stn# 288, Stn# 2291, Stn# 183
Zone [7505] had [3] stations:
Stn# 176, Stn# 1280, Stn# 1278
Total Stations: 157
V. Ocean Temperature Data
The other software module I wrote to use on the WOD data has analyzed those eight zones.
It generated a mean average temperature analysis which indicates:
WOD Zone: 7207 (all figures in deg. C)
=======
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 150 upward & 137 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
0-200m = 0.8281
200-400m = 5.7764
400-600m = 7.81588
600-800m = 8.31104
800-1000m = 2.26469
1000-3000m = -1.18839
>3000m = -14.9663
Net change for 7 levels: 8.84138
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Years involved: 1968 -> 2016 (48 yrs)
Average change per year:
(8.84138 ÷ 48): 0.184195
WOD Zone: 7208 (all figures in deg. C)
=======
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 118 upward & 90 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
0-200m = 0.264
200-400m = 6.9159
400-600m = 4.43833
600-800m = 0.62627
800-1000m = -17.1734
1000-3000m = -8.54667
Net change for 6 levels: -13.4756
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Years involved: 1968 -> 2016 (48 yrs)
Average change per year:
(-13.4756 ÷ 48): -0.280742
WOD Zone: 7209 (all figures in deg. C)
=======
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 88 upward & 90 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
0-200m = 1.093
200-400m = 0.6436
400-600m = -3.51186
600-800m = -20.3238
800-1000m = -0.77893
1000-3000m = -0.67542
Net change for 6 levels: -23.5534
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Years involved: 1968 -> 2016 (48 yrs)
Average change per year:
(-23.5534 ÷ 48): -0.490695
WOD Zone: 7307 (all figures in deg. C)
=======
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 131 upward & 142 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
0-200m = -4.1155
200-400m = -0.9116
400-600m = -4.26595
600-800m = -3.00295
800-1000m = -11.8593
1000-3000m = -14.5611
>3000m = -12.8214
Net change for 7 levels: -51.5377
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Years involved: 1968 -> 2016 (48 yrs)
Average change per year:
(-51.5377 ÷ 48): -1.0737
WOD Zone: 7405 (all figures in deg. C)
=======
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 30 upward & 27 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
0-200m = 4.59774
200-400m = -12.8842
400-600m = 0.20486
600-800m = 0.57798
800-1000m = 0.25222
1000-3000m = -0.00667
>3000m = -0.03499
Net change for 7 levels: -7.29303
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Years involved: 1982 -> 2016 (34 yrs)
Average change per year:
(-7.29303 ÷ 34): -0.214501
WOD Zone: 7406 (all figures in deg. C)
=======
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 21 upward & 23 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
0-200m = -8.75018
200-400m = 2.48753
400-600m = 0.95474
600-800m = -0.60689
800-1000m = -0.24387
1000-3000m = -0.2386
>3000m = -0.04415
Net change for 7 levels: -6.44142
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Years involved: 1975 -> 2016 (41 yrs)
Average change per year:
(-6.44142 ÷ 41): -0.157108
WOD Zone: 7407 (all figures in deg. C)
=======
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 37 upward & 29 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
0-200m = 7.484
200-400m = 5.56404
400-600m = 6.6664
Net change for 3 levels: 19.7144
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Years involved: 1961 -> 2015 (54 yrs)
Average change per year:
(19.7144 ÷ 54): 0.365082
WOD Zone: 7505 (all figures in deg. C)
=======
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 126 upward & 119 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
0-200m = 2.27443
200-400m = -0.55013
400-600m = 0.21086
600-800m = 0.17872
800-1000m = 0.18033
1000-3000m = 0.50581
>3000m = -23.3222
Net change for 7 levels: -20.5222
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1972 -> 2016 (44 yrs)
Average change per year:
(-20.5222 ÷ 44): -0.466414
Zone mean averages of 8 WOD Zones
(temperatures are in deg. C)
=======
Concerning change trends, the average
was 87 upward & 82 downward trends.
Average changes per depth level were:
0-200m = 0.459449
200-400m = 0.880196
400-600m = 1.56416
600-800m = -1.77995
800-1000m = -3.41978
1000-3000m = -3.08888
>3000m = -6.39864
Average change, all 7 levels: -1.68335
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Years involved: 1961 -> 2016 (55 yrs)
Average annual change per zone:
(-1.68335 ÷ 55):
-0.0306064 C per year
VI. Discussion
The combined result for all eight WOD zones was not an increase in ocean temperature when all depths in the vast ocean column of water are considered.
Instead, there was actually a net cooling of "-0.0306064 C per year" as graphed at Fig. 1.
Nevertheless, there was serious net sea level rise in these eight zones as graphed at Fig. 2.
VII. Conclusion
It is time to put the myth away and to focus on the serious implications of ice sheet melt and disintegration.
Now, I am going to write the new sea level projection software.
See you soon.
The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.
01:30 Greenland melt is 60 years (six decades) ahead of what cryo-scientists previously thought it would be, and Antarctica is beginning to surprise in the same way (paraphrased).
"Note, though, that when land ice melts the resulting sea level rise will not be uniform. As the ice melts, the land beneath the ice sheet rebounds and the gravitation pull associated with the ice sheet decreases. These both contribute to a sea level fall near the ice sheets. Conversely, far from the ice sheet, the sea level rise would be greater than the global average. There are also dynamic oceanographic effects associated with the cold, fresh melt water entering the oceans. These dynamic sea level changes are more difficult to model, but are also important to understand future sea level change." - PSMSL FAQ link
ReplyDeleteWhy would the deeper ocean be cooling? Arctic meltwater sliding down in latitudes and more at depth?
ReplyDeleteThe "deeper ocean", like the "shallower ocean" is both cooling and warming at various times and at various depths for various reasons.
ReplyDeleteAverages have been provided for all levels individually, and all combined.
Think about the difference between "cooling" and "cooler", "warming" and "warmer."
The subject matter here is "the myth of thermal expansion as the major cause of sea level rise."