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| Fig. 1 Global Zone Grid |
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| Fig. 2 Sub-Zones (4 ea.) & Sub-sub-Zones (16 ea.) |
I. Background
It is difficult to see how much of a cover up of sea level change (SLC) the use of the abstraction "global mean average sea level" (GMSL) is, unless one compares it to some PSMSL tide gauge station records.
Regular readers know that I have made zones, sub-zones, and sub-sub-zones (see Fig. 1, Fig. 2) of the map of the globe so as to more easily focus on the different dynamics of SLC.
That is because SLC is composed of both sea level fall (SLF) and sea level rise (SLR) of highly contrasting degrees.
So, mixing them globally obscures the contrasting ups and downs of SLC reality.
On the other hand, using small zones, instead of the entire globe, limits sea level analysis to a small area where the behavior is generally comparable enough so as not to obscure significant SLC factors.
The zone technique is called zone mean sea level (ZMSL).
II. Use of Satellite & Tide Gauge Station Data Together
After acquiring the NASA satellite database, I added a routine to the Dredd Blog SLC software model to illustrate this GMSL vs. ZMSL contrast.
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| Fig. 3 GMSL vs. ZMSL |
The GMSL data is from the satellite database @ NASA, which anyone can read about or download here.
In the new software module, within the Dredd Blog SLC model, I fuse the satellite data with PSMSL RLR tide gauge station data so the GMSL can be compared to the ZMSL.
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| Fig. 4 SLC Geographical components |
From then on the ZMSL snakes along, rising above then falling below the GMSL as time goes on.
Notice how generally straight the GMSL is by comparison to the ZMSL.
III. Geophysical vs. Geographical
The misleading impact caused by the misuse of GMSL is also exposed by comparing the geographical components of SLC (Fig. 4) with the geophysical components (Fig. 5).
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| Fig. 5 SLC Geophysical components |
The geographical component sectors indicate where the SLC originated geographically, while the geophysical component sectors indicate the physical type of the SLC.
The "displacement" is ice or melt-water, the "ghost-water" is ice-sheet gravity held ocean water that is relocated toward the equator as the ice sheet disintegrates, and the "other" is all other factors (e.g. ocean water expansion due to cooling or heating, land surface fall, or rise).
IV. Thermal Expansion
Regular readers know that I criticize scientific papers for their overuse of "thermal expansion" and for their conclusion that it was a "major factor" in SLC dynamics for the past ~200 years (e.g. Questionable Scientific Papers - 4).
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| Fig. 6 Physics of water |
My main beef with the error is that SLC is a life and death situation for civilization as we know it.
Toying with it gives an impression that can have catastrophic results in ours, the Anthropocene Epoch, the home of the Sixth Mass Extinction (The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports, 2, 3, The Extinction of Charleston, The Extinction of Philadelphia, The Extinction of Washington, D.C., The Extinction of Boston, The Extinction of Miami, The Extinction of Manzanillo, The Extinction of Houston, The Extinction of Providence, The Extinction of Chesapeake Bay Islands).
We do not have the luxury of status quo "fun science and discovery" that those who came and went before us had.
A mistake with gunpowder in the cowboy days has more leeway than a mistake with a nuclear weapon in our day has.
A mistake with SLC in our day is more critical than a mistake made a couple of hundred years ago.
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| Fig. 7 Physics of water |
Notice Fig. 7, which shows that "water" inhabits the space between "steam" and "ice".
Water is at its lowest volume @ 4 deg. C, and from there any change in temperature, whether toward the icy side of life, or towards the steamy side of life, results in expansion of volume.
The warming of an ocean area during the day can cause it to contract, to expand, or both (same with night time dynamics).
That expansion or contraction depends on the temperature at the beginning of any thermal exchange.
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| Fig. 8 Physics of water |
As it warms up above 4 deg. C it will then begin to expand until the solar input goes away
Then, as it cools at night, it will shrink until it reaches 4 deg. C (39.2 deg. F) again, at which point it will begin to expand again (if it cools below 4 deg. C (39.2 deg. F)) (see Fig. 6).
If you take notice of Fig. 8, you see that even at full expansion is a small percentage, compared to the displacement of ice sheet melt-water or icebergs that enter the ocean.
That displacement is 100% of the volume of the ice or water entering the ocean that way.
The "Warming Science Commentariat" tends to express only one side of the life of water doesn't it?
They need to get all Halloween on us and check out ghost-water eh?
A. Application to Ocean Water
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| Comparison of pure water and seawater |
Which means most ocean water (which is at that depth and temperature) is warmed, it will shrink not expand, until it reaches then passes the maximum density temperature of x°C (4°C for pure water) as discussed above.
Even though the temperature, etc. at which ocean water shrinks or expands in volume is different from pure water, the principle is the same.
See Properties of Water & Seawater (PDF), which is the article the comparison graphic comes from.
B. The Same Principles Apply
I have modified Fig. 6, Fig. 7, and Fig. 8 into Fig. 6b, Fig. 7b, and Fig. 8b to reflect the
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| Fig. 6b |
The major contributors are ignored by the Bathtub Model afficianados, and thus they make a mountain out of a molehill.
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| Fig. 7b |
They offer nothing to explain why sea level is falling more and more in various areas of the globe as temperatures in the ocean and in the air increase (On The Evolution of Sea Level Change - 2).
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| Fig. 8b |
All the while ignoring the 800 lb. gorillas in the room, which are the ice melt water and the ghost-water they refuse to see (The Ghost-Water Constant - 4).
Will the oceans expand 80.32 meters by thermal expansion (How Fifth Graders Calculate Ice Volume - 5)?
V. Another Example
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| Fig. 9 Hawaii ZMSL vs. GMSL |
The graph at Fig. 9 shows the ZMSL compared with the GMSL.
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| Fig. 10 Hawaii Geophysical |
The graph at Fig. 10 shows the geophysical components that contribute to SLC there.
And finally, Fig. 11 shows the geographical origin of the SLC, that is, the contributions of Antarctica, Greenland, and Glaciers from locations other than those two ice sheets.
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| Fig. 11 Hawaii Geographical |
Local sea level varies as much as culture, weather, politics, economy and environment do.
I mean, combining the various differences of culture, weather, politics, economy, and environment into one blobish mass does a disservice to those who do not like to grossly gloss over SLC and other realities.
The PSMSL tide gauge stations and seaports in Zone AM.NW.SE (Hawaii) are listed at the bottom of this post, following those of Zone AH.SE.NE (E. Coast).
VI. One Final Point
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| Fig. 12 Full zone record |
Thus, the graphs are of a very limited amount of time compared to the tide gauge station records that can go back as much as a couple of hundred years.
The short time frame of the satellite records does not give a robust picture of the trend of SLC, as does the ZMSL in any given zone.
I have added graphs at Fig. 12 and Fig. 13 which show the long term trends of the two zones featured in today's post.
The graph at Fig. 12 is Zone AH.SE.NE (E. Coast) which goes back more than a hundred years prior to the time those satellite records began.
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| Fig. 13 Full zone record |
Likewise, the graph at Fig. 12, which shows the record for Zone AM.NW.SE (Hawaii), goes back over a hundred years.
It too gives a better picture of the trend of SLC in that zone.
They both also emphasize the point of how important it is to know ZMSL compared to GMSL.
VII. Conclusion
In closing, I will now tidy up on some other issues in this post.
The difference in Fig. 3 numbers compared to Fig. 4 and Fig. 5 numbers is that Fig. 3 is PSMSL RLR meters, while Fig. 4 and Fig. 5 are the amounts of change taking place in terms of millimeters.
However, notice that the pattern is identical because the historical data is identical.
The historical tide gauge values in Fig. 3, as well as the changes shown in Fig. 4 and Fig. 5, reveal historical PSMSL ups and downs, all of which are a matter of official record keeping.
The satellite data used to graph the GMSL was set forth here.
The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.
Tide Gauge Stations and Seaports located in Zone [AH.SE.NE] are:
Station HALIFAX (#96)
Station CAPE MAY (#1153)
Station ATLANTIC CITY (#180)
Station SANDY HOOK (#366)
Station NEW YORK (THE BATTERY) (#12)
Station MONTAUK (#519)
Station BRIDGEPORT (#1068)
Station NEW LONDON (#429)
Station PROVIDENCE (STATE PIER) (#430)
Station NEWPORT (#351)
Station WOODS HOLE (OCEAN. INST.) (#367)
Station NANTUCKET ISLAND (#1111)
Station BOSTON (#235)
Station PORTLAND (MAINE) (#183)
Station BAR HARBOR @ FRENCHMAN BAY @ ME (#525)
Station EASTPORT (#332)
Port 'BURLINGTON' (#8140), Country: US
Port 'BRISTOL' (#8150), Country: US
Port 'TRENTON' (#8160), Country: US
Port 'BROOKLYN' (#7630), Country: US
Port 'NEW YORK CITY' (#7640), Country: US
Port 'PATCHOGUE' (#7641), Country: US
Port 'YONKERS' (#7650), Country: US
Port 'NEWBURGH' (#7660), Country: US
Port 'POUGHKEEPSIE' (#7670), Country: US
Port 'KINGSTON' (#7680), Country: US
Port 'CATSKILL' (#7690), Country: US
Port 'ALBANY' (#7720), Country: US
Port 'RENSSELAER' (#7730), Country: US
Port 'TROY' (#7740), Country: US
Port 'EDGEWATER' (#7750), Country: US
Port 'WEEHAWKEN' (#7760), Country: US
Port 'HOBOKEN' (#7770), Country: US
Port 'JERSEY CITY' (#7780), Country: US
Port 'BAYONNE' (#7790), Country: US
Port 'NEWARK' (#7810), Country: US
Port 'ELIZABETHPORT' (#7820), Country: US
Port 'STAPLETON SI' (#7830), Country: US
Port 'TOMPKINSVILLE SI' (#7840), Country: US
Port 'PORT RICHMOND SI' (#7850), Country: US
Port 'MARINERS HARBOR SI' (#7860), Country: US
Port 'GULFPORT SI' (#7870), Country: US
Port 'PORT SOCONY' (#7890), Country: US
Port 'BAYWAY' (#7895), Country: US
Port 'GRASSELLI' (#7900), Country: US
Port 'CARTERET' (#7910), Country: US
Port 'CHROME' (#7920), Country: US
Port 'PORT READING' (#7930), Country: US
Port 'SEWAREN' (#7940), Country: US
Port 'MAURER' (#7950), Country: US
Port 'PERTH AMBOY' (#7960), Country: US
Port 'SAYREVILLE' (#7970), Country: US
Port 'SOUTH AMBOY' (#7980), Country: US
Port 'LEONARDO' (#7990), Country: US
Port 'BARNEGAT' (#8000), Country: US
Port 'ATLANTIC CITY' (#8020), Country: US
Port 'CITY ISLAND' (#7625), Country: US
Port 'GLOUCESTER' (#7210), Country: US
Port 'BEVERLY' (#7220), Country: US
Port 'SALEM' (#7225), Country: US
Port 'MARBLEHEAD' (#7230), Country: US
Port 'LYNN' (#7240), Country: US
Port 'BOSTON' (#7250), Country: US
Port 'QUINCY' (#7260), Country: US
Port 'SCITUATE' (#7270), Country: US
Port 'PLYMOUTH' (#7280), Country: US
Port 'PROVINCETOWN' (#7290), Country: US
Port 'HYANNIS' (#7310), Country: US
Port 'HYANNIS PORT' (#7315), Country: US
Port 'FALMOUTH' (#7320), Country: US
Port 'NANTUCKET' (#7330), Country: US
Port 'EDGARTOWN' (#7340), Country: US
Port 'VINEYARD HAVEN' (#7350), Country: US
Port 'WOODS HOLE' (#7360), Country: US
Port 'NEW BEDFORD' (#7370), Country: US
Port 'NEWPORT' (#7380), Country: US
Port 'FALL RIVER' (#7400), Country: US
Port 'TIVERTON' (#7405), Country: US
Port 'BRISTOL' (#7410), Country: US
Port 'PROVIDENCE' (#7420), Country: US
Port 'QUONSET POINT' (#7430), Country: US
Port 'DAVISVILLE DEPOT' (#7440), Country: US
Port 'MONTAUK HARBOR' (#7450), Country: US
Port 'GREENPORT' (#7460), Country: US
Port 'STONINGTON' (#7470), Country: US
Port 'NOANK' (#7480), Country: US
Port 'MYSTIC' (#7490), Country: US
Port 'NEW LONDON' (#7500), Country: US
Port 'NORWICH' (#7510), Country: US
Port 'ESSEX' (#7520), Country: US
Port 'NEW HAVEN' (#7550), Country: US
Port 'PORT JEFFERSON' (#7560), Country: US
Port 'BRIDGEPORT' (#7570), Country: US
Port 'SOUTHPORT' (#7580), Country: US
Port 'NORWALK' (#7590), Country: US
Port 'STAMFORD' (#7600), Country: US
Port 'GREENWICH' (#7610), Country: US
Port 'PORT CHESTER' (#7620), Country: US
Port 'NEWBURYPORT' (#7190), Country: US
Port 'ROCKPORT' (#7200), Country: US
Port 'WINTER HARBOR' (#6680), Country: US
Port 'SORRENTO' (#6690), Country: US
Port 'BAR HARBOR' (#6700), Country: US
Port 'NORTHEAST HARBOR' (#6710), Country: US
Port 'SOUTHWEST HARBOR' (#6720), Country: US
Port 'MOUNT DESERT' (#6730), Country: US
Port 'FRENCHBORO' (#6740), Country: US
Port 'MINTURN' (#6750), Country: US
Port 'SWANS ISLAND' (#6760), Country: US
Port 'BASS HARBOR' (#6770), Country: US
Port 'ELLSWORTH' (#6780), Country: US
Port 'BROOKLIN' (#6790), Country: US
Port 'BUCKS HARBOR' (#6800), Country: US
Port 'STONINGTON' (#6810), Country: US
Port 'CRIEHAVEN' (#6820), Country: US
Port 'MATINICUS' (#6830), Country: US
Port 'VINALHAVEN' (#6840), Country: US
Port 'NORTH HAVEN' (#6850), Country: US
Port 'CASTINE' (#6860), Country: US
Port 'SANDYPOINT' (#6870), Country: US
Port 'BUCKSPORT' (#6880), Country: US
Port 'WINTERPORT' (#6890), Country: US
Port 'BANGOR' (#6900), Country: US
Port 'SEARSPORT' (#6910), Country: US
Port 'BELFAST' (#6920), Country: US
Port 'CAMDEN' (#6940), Country: US
Port 'ROCKPORT' (#6950), Country: US
Port 'ROCKLAND' (#6960), Country: US
Port 'MONHEGAN' (#6970), Country: US
Port 'PORT CLYDE' (#6980), Country: US
Port 'THOMASTON' (#6990), Country: US
Port 'FRIENDSHIP' (#7000), Country: US
Port 'NEW HARBOR' (#7010), Country: US
Port 'PEMAQUID BEACH' (#7020), Country: US
Port 'SOUTH BRISTOL' (#7030), Country: US
Port 'BOOTHBAY HARBOR' (#7040), Country: US
Port 'ROBINHOOD' (#7070), Country: US
Port 'BATH' (#7080), Country: US
Port 'GARDINER' (#7100), Country: US
Port 'AUGUSTA' (#7120), Country: US
Port 'CUNDY HARBOR' (#7130), Country: US
Port 'SOUTH HARPSWELL' (#7140), Country: US
Port 'PORTLAND' (#7150), Country: US
Port 'SACO' (#7160), Country: US
Port 'KENNEBUNKPORT' (#7170), Country: US
Port 'PORTSMOUTH' (#7180), Country: US
Port 'COREA' (#6670), Country: US
Port 'MUSQUODOBOIT HARBOUR' (#6330), Country: CA
Port 'HALIFAX' (#6340), Country: CA
Port 'SAMBRO' (#6350), Country: CA
Port 'LUNENBURG' (#6390), Country: CA
Port 'LOCKEPORT' (#6420), Country: CA
Port 'DIGBY' (#6470), Country: CA
Port 'ANNAPOLIS ROYAL' (#6480), Country: CA
Port 'EASTPORT' (#6600), Country: US
Port 'LUBEC' (#6610), Country: US
Port 'MACHIASPORT' (#6620), Country: US
Port 'MACHIAS' (#6630), Country: US
Port 'JONESPORT' (#6640), Country: US
Port 'WYMAN' (#6650), Country: US
Port 'MILBRIDGE' (#6660), Country: US
Port 'YARMOUTH' (#6460), Country: CA
Port 'LIVERPOOL (BROOKLYN)' (#6410), Country: CA
Stations and/or Ports in Zone [AM.NW.SE] (Hawaii) are:
Station HONOLULU (#155)
Station MOKUOLOE ISLAND (#823)
Station KAHULUI HARBOR @ MAUI ISLAND (#521)
Station HILO @ HAWAII ISLAND (#300)
Port 'NONOPAPA' (#56320), Country: US
Port 'HONOKAA' (#56070), Country: US
Port 'HILO' (#56090), Country: US
Port 'HONUAPO' (#56100), Country: US
Port 'MILOLII' (#56110), Country: US
Port 'KAUHAKO BAY' (#56120), Country: US
Port 'NAPOOPOO' (#56130), Country: US
Port 'KAILUA' (#56140), Country: US
Port 'KIHOLO' (#56150), Country: US
Port 'KAWAIHAE' (#56160), Country: US
Port 'MAHUKONA' (#56170), Country: US
Port 'KAHULUI' (#56180), Country: US
Port 'HANA' (#56190), Country: US
Port 'LAHAINA' (#56200), Country: US
Port 'KAUMALAPAU HARBOR' (#56230), Country: US
Port 'PUKOO' (#56240), Country: US
Port 'KAMALO' (#56250), Country: US
Port 'KAUNAKAKAI' (#56260), Country: US
Port 'HONOLULU' (#56280), Country: US
Port 'PORT ALLEN' (#56290), Country: US
Port 'NAWILIWILI BAY' (#56300), Country: US
Port 'AHUKINI LANDING' (#56310), Country: US
Port 'BARBERS POINT TERMINAL' (#56270), Country: US
Port 'BARBER'S POINT' (#56272), Country: US
A lot of ports are impacted by SLC.
ReplyDeleteContrast is good.
i'll bet dollars to donuts VERY few people know of that strange relationship between water and expansion (and contraction) around the 4 degree C mark.
ReplyDeleteKeep up the good work, Dredd.
Tom
Thanks Tom.
DeleteYou keep up the good work too.
You have acquired a vast amount of awareness and information during your widespread research.
Sharing that has helped all of us here and elsewhere.