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| Fig. 1 Indian Ocean Area |
I. Background
Scientific papers that rely on the hypothesis that thermal expansion of ocean water is the major cause of sea level rise are per se questionable (On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9).
Today, I will question one such paper which was recently published in the Journal of Geophysical Research.
That paper was prepared by a team from the University of Hawaii, and was described as follows:
The science team led by Philip Thompson, associate director of the University of Hawaiʻi Sea Level Center in the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), analyzed two and a half decades of ocean surface height measurements taken from satellites. The satellite data showed a substantial and abrupt increase in decade-long sea level trends in the Indian Ocean region, which prompted the oceanographers to investigate the cause of the shift using computer simulations of ocean circulation.(Indian Ocean sea level on the rise, U. of Hawaii, emphasis added). There are several problems with this paper, which covers the geographic area depicted in Fig. 1 and Fig. 7.
“Wind blowing over the ocean caused changes in the movement of heat across the equator in the Indian Ocean,” said Thompson. “This lead to suppression of sea level rise during the 1990s and early 2000s, but now we are seeing the winds amplify sea level rise by increasing the amount of ocean heat brought into the region.”
II. Sources of My Skepticism
Let me begin by listing reasons for my skepticism.
I am always suspicious when: 1) "computer simulations" are used (why not use the World Ocean Database (WOD) containing billions of observations made by thousands of scientists worldwide?), 2) tide gauge stations are excluded in favor of exclusively using satellite altimetry records, and 3) ice sheet dynamics are ignored.
I think it is instructive that (in the scientific method: "To be termed scientific, a method of inquiry is commonly based on empirical or measurable evidence subject to specific principles of reasoning.") observations are more valuable than hypotheses or mere computer simulations (a hypothesis or computer assertion can be considered falsified if it is at odds with observations).
As to satellite records, observations of sea level at tide gauge stations is a robust scientific method for verifying or correcting satellite data:
"In the past two decades, sea level has been routinely measured from space using satellite altimetry techniques. In order to address a number of important scientific questions ... the accuracy of altimetry-based sea level records at global and regional scales needs to be significantly improved. For example, the global mean and regional sea level trend uncertainty should become better than 0.3 and 0.5 mm year−1, respectively (currently 0.6 and 1–2 mm year−1).(see Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, PSMSL). And, probably most important, the dynamics of ice sheet changes on sea level must never be left out of any serious scientific discussion of sea level change:
...
We ... present preliminary independent validations ... based on tide gauges comparison ..." - (Ocean Science Net, PDF)
"The satellite data record is of insufficient length to distinguish medium-term variability from long-term change, which is why the satellite record in Figure 1 has been supplemented with a longer-term reconstruction based on tide gauge measurements." - (EPA, Sea level, p. 9, PDF)
"The global sea level record from tide gauges is an important indicator of the evolution and impact of global climate change. Tide gauge data also capture a variety of local and regional phenomena related to decadal climate variability, tides, storm surges, tsunamis, swells, and other coastal processes. Tide gauge data are used to validate ocean models and to detect errors and drifts in satellite altimetry." - (UCAR NCAR)
Sea-level change associated with climate change involves various interactions between different components of the Earth system — primarily oceans, ice sheets and the solid Earth. As a consequence, sea-level science is highly multi- and interdisciplinary, requiring collaboration between scientists who measure and model properties of and processes within these various subsystems.(On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction - 8, emphasis added). The paper being questioned today is fundamentally weak in light of the missing scientific data (Why Our Intuition About Sea-Level Rise Is Wrong).
...
A key message of this paper is that, contrary to popular belief, climate-driven sea-level change is not spatially uniform.
...
A common misconception among both the wider scientific community and the general public is that sea-level rise associated with a warming climate would be the same everywhere. For example, concern about the future response of the large ice sheets to projected warming often leads to statements regarding the potential sea-level rise associated with the demise of the Greenland or West Antarctic ice sheets — approximately 7 m and 5 m, respectively. However, if either of these ice sheets were to lose even a fraction of their mass, the resulting sea-level change would not be spatially uniform. Current models of sea-level change associated with changes in continental ice volume demonstrate that there is, in fact, a sea-level fall in the vicinity of a melting ice sheet or glacier.
...
This spatial non-uniformity in the sea-level response to climate change is, of course, a serious issue when considering the sea-level hazard from future global warming. In the coming century, some areas will experience a considerable sea-level rise, whereas others will experience little change or even a considerable fall. It is important for governments and policy makers to be aware of this variability so that appropriate action can be made to plan and implement appropriate mitigatory procedures.
...
Sea-level fingerprinting
Because sea-level change associated with climate variation is not spatially uniform, it is possible to look for patterns in observations of past changes to infer dominant melt sources or constrain the relative importance of steric changes (sea-level changes arising from expansion and contraction of the water as temperature or salinity changes; see box on p2.26) compared to ice melt/growth. A recent application of this type considered a carefully selected subset of tide gauge records to look for a signal related to melting of land ice during the 20th century (Mitrovica 2001). The basis of this study is the pattern of global sea-level change when assuming melt from three distinct sources: Greenland, Antarctica and smaller ice masses such as mountain glaciers and ice caps.
...
"As any ice sheet melts, sea levels along coastlines as much as 1,500 miles
(2,000 kilometers) away will fall as seawater escapes from the reduced gravitational pull and the crust lifts. The escaping seawater flows clear across the equator: the melting of Antarctica affects the U.S. East and West coasts, and Greenland's disappearance impacts the coastline of Brazil. These regional differences are significant -- such as in the case of the East Coast of the United States." [quoting NASA]
Fig. 2 The Battle of the Bulge
Remember, their purpose was to find the cause of abrupt sea level change in the Indian Ocean.
III. The WOD & PSMSL Reality Based on Scientific Observation
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| Fig. 3 WOD data = billions of observations |
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| Fig. 4 From PSMSL tide gauge stations |
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| Fig. 5 From PSMSL tide gauge stations |
As you can see from the WOD data @ Fig. 3, the ocean temperatures from all depths, compared with the PSMSL sea level change data @ Fig. 4 and Fig. 5, gives no support their assertion.
The reality is that the abrupt change in sea level took place circa 1934, some six decades prior to their beginning point of reference in the satellite generated records (1993 is when their satellite records begin).
In 1934 a sea level fall trend, which had begun in the late 1800's, abruptly changed into a sea level rise trend which has continued to the present.
From 1993 on, neither the ocean temperatures nor sea levels have any abrupt trend changes whatsoever.
Thus, their conclusion that "the wind did it" is meaningless.
That is what happens when scientists leave out the work of those who have figured it out long before their time (Woodward 1888, Mitrovica et. al 2011).
IV. What Caused It Then?
It is not the purpose of this post to do their work for them, but I will gladly give them a clue or two.
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| Fig. 6 Mitrovica et. al 2011 |
The graphic at Fig. 6 is from the Mitrovica et. al paper (linked to in the last sentence of the previous Section III) which gives clues showing that both sea level fall and sea level rise are expected for the area in question.
The gist of it is that as Greenland, Antarctica, and land glaciers disintegrate, as a result of global warming, it will impact the area in question.
And it will do so in ways that (as quoted above in Section II: "A common misconception among both the wider scientific community and the general public ...") are not in the textbooks (Why Our Intuition About Sea-Level Rise Is Wrong, Humble Oil-Qaeda, The Ghost-Water Constant, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7).
Other clues I will offer, before closing, are (Glaciers of India, Glaciers of Pakistan, Glaciers of Bhutan; cf. The Ghost-Water Constant - 5 about strange Black Sea area glaciers' impact on sea level change there).
For another reference to sea level dynamics that are influenced by such land glaciers (even in the US), see (Proof of Concept, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).
V. Indian Ocean Dynamic Analysis
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| Fig. 7 The 27 WOD Zones (red outline) |
The WOD Zones analyzed in today's post are shown in Fig. 7 (see also Fig. 1).
The following Section VI is an analysis of the data from the relevant WOD Zones (I am talking about the WOD Zones that were used to generate Fig. 3, Fig. 4, and Fig. 5.
They are outlined with red lines on Fig. 7 and are analyzed using actual (CTD & PFL) scientific measurements taken by scientists (all the way from the Indian Ocean's surface down to the Indian Ocean's bottom).
VI. Analysis of the WOD Zones Individually and Collectively
WOD Zone: 1004 (temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning temperature changes, there
were 71 upward & 75 downward changes.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: -2.5671
- 0-200m = 1.4143
- 200-400m = 0.2103
- 400-600m = -0.0522
- 600-800m = -0.26403
- 800-1000m = 0.04286
- 1000-3000m = -3.92431
- >3000m = 0.00598
Years involved: 1975 -> 2016 (41 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (-2.5671 ÷ 41): -0.0626122
WOD Zone: 1005 (temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning temperature changes, there
were 108 upward & 87 downward changes.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: 1.34212
- 0-200m = 1.7139
- 200-400m = 0.0597
- 400-600m = 0.9765
- 600-800m = 0.51363
- 800-1000m = 0.95806
- 1000-3000m = -2.50437
- >3000m = -0.3753
Years involved: 1972 -> 2016 (44 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (1.34212 ÷ 44): 0.0305027
WOD Zone: 1006 (temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning temperature changes, there
were 107 upward & 95 downward changes.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: 4.31578
- 0-200m = 1.6577
- 200-400m = 1.0392
- 400-600m = 0.5353
- 600-800m = 0.21722
- 800-1000m = -0.06212
- 1000-3000m = 0.97014
- >3000m = -0.04166
Years involved: 1974 -> 2016 (42 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (4.31578 ÷ 42): 0.102757
WOD Zone: 1007 (temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning temperature changes, there
were 79 upward & 89 downward changes.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: -4.3929
- 0-200m = 2.223
- 200-400m = 0.5675
- 400-600m = -0.6004
- 600-800m = -0.55882
- 800-1000m = -3.32722
- 1000-3000m = -2.5946
- >3000m = -0.10236
Years involved: 1972 -> 2016 (44 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (-4.3929 ÷ 44): -0.0998386
WOD Zone: 1008 (temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning temperature changes, there
were 103 upward & 101 downward changes.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: 0.31435
- 0-200m = -0.2061
- 200-400m = 0.1836
- 400-600m = 0.2283
- 600-800m = 0.13232
- 800-1000m = -0.24371
- 1000-3000m = 0.21135
- >3000m = 0.00859
Years involved: 1975 -> 2016 (41 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (0.31435 ÷ 41): 0.00766707
WOD Zone: 1009 (temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning temperature changes, there
were 83 upward & 74 downward changes.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 6 levels: -9.1392
- 0-200m = -9.1207
- 200-400m = 0.0216
- 400-600m = -0.11597
- 600-800m = -0.22991
- 800-1000m = 0.08181
- 1000-3000m = 0.22397
Years involved: 1961 -> 2016 (55 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (-9.1392 ÷ 55): -0.166167
WOD Zone: 1104 (temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning temperature changes, there
were 6 upward & 6 downward changes.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 6 levels: 12.3777
- 0-200m = 1.4094
- 200-400m = 3.6134
- 400-600m = 5.1166
- 600-800m = 3.8486
- 800-1000m = 0.5389
- 1000-3000m = -2.14923
Years involved: 2013 -> 2016 (3 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (12.3777 ÷ 3): 4.12589
WOD Zone: 1105 (temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning temperature changes, there
were 117 upward & 127 downward changes.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: 9.21683
- 0-200m = -0.1271
- 200-400m = 1.1536
- 400-600m = 0.9617
- 600-800m = 0.189
- 800-1000m = 0.75147
- 1000-3000m = 5.39344
- >3000m = 0.89472
Years involved: 1972 -> 2016 (44 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (9.21683 ÷ 44): 0.209473
WOD Zone: 1106 (temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning temperature changes, there
were 134 upward & 114 downward changes.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: 9.18996
- 0-200m = 0.1435
- 200-400m = 1.5716
- 400-600m = 1.0486
- 600-800m = 0.81146
- 800-1000m = 1.23384
- 1000-3000m = 2.66073
- >3000m = 1.72023
Years involved: 1974 -> 2016 (42 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (9.18996 ÷ 42): 0.218809
WOD Zone: 1107 (temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning temperature changes, there
were 76 upward & 66 downward changes.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 6 levels: 8.08671
- 0-200m = 5.9785
- 200-400m = 1.6163
- 400-600m = 0.8486
- 600-800m = -0.7746
- 800-1000m = -0.36187
- 1000-3000m = 0.77978
Years involved: 1972 -> 2016 (44 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (8.08671 ÷ 44): 0.183789
WOD Zone: 1108 (temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning temperature changes, there
were 107 upward & 104 downward changes.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 6 levels: -1.15587
- 0-200m = -0.3476
- 200-400m = 0.2294
- 400-600m = 0.30613
- 600-800m = 0.17035
- 800-1000m = 0.11455
- 1000-3000m = -1.6287
Years involved: 1978 -> 2016 (38 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (-1.15587 ÷ 38): -0.0304176
WOD Zone: 1109 (temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning temperature changes, there
were 65 upward & 68 downward changes.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 6 levels: -0.73155
- 0-200m = 0.2316
- 200-400m = -0.0393
- 400-600m = 0.13296
- 600-800m = 0.11892
- 800-1000m = 0.16357
- 1000-3000m = -1.3393
Years involved: 1991 -> 2016 (25 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (-0.73155 ÷ 25): -0.029262
WOD Zone: 1206 (temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning temperature changes, there
were 90 upward & 95 downward changes.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: 2.7977
- 0-200m = 1.3878
- 200-400m = 0.738
- 400-600m = 0.5338
- 600-800m = 0.3478
- 800-1000m = 0.45545
- 1000-3000m = -0.65573
- >3000m = -0.00942
Years involved: 1974 -> 2016 (42 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (2.7977 ÷ 42): 0.0666119
WOD Zone: 1208 (temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning temperature changes, there
were 8 upward & 24 downward changes.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 6 levels: -11.8407
- 0-200m = -1.7339
- 200-400m = -1.1718
- 400-600m = -1.16207
- 600-800m = -2.76092
- 800-1000m = -2.62019
- 1000-3000m = -2.39185
Years involved: 1995 -> 2013 (18 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (-11.8407 ÷ 18): -0.657818
WOD Zone: 1209 (temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning temperature changes, there
were 0 upward & 1 downward changes.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 1 levels: 2.3856
- 0-200m = 2.3856
Years involved: 2003 -> 2010 (7 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (2.3856 ÷ 7): 0.3408
WOD Zone: 3004 (temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning temperature changes, there
were 76 upward & 72 downward changes.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: -12.1525
- 0-200m = -0.1918
- 200-400m = -2.3124
- 400-600m = -1.36642
- 600-800m = -5.01819
- 800-1000m = -0.32792
- 1000-3000m = -1.79758
- >3000m = -1.13815
Years involved: 1972 -> 2016 (44 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (-12.1525 ÷ 44): -0.276192
WOD Zone: 3005 (temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning temperature changes, there
were 76 upward & 91 downward changes.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: -0.95553
- 0-200m = -0.2046
- 200-400m = -0.2869
- 400-600m = -0.69389
- 600-800m = 0.14023
- 800-1000m = 0.60843
- 1000-3000m = -0.50246
- >3000m = -0.01634
Years involved: 1972 -> 2016 (44 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (-0.95553 ÷ 44): -0.0217166
WOD Zone: 3006 (temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning temperature changes, there
were 83 upward & 78 downward changes.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 6 levels: 4.66839
- 0-200m = 4.156
- 200-400m = 0.7157
- 400-600m = 1.27966
- 600-800m = 1.00288
- 800-1000m = 0.68948
- 1000-3000m = -3.17533
Years involved: 1974 -> 2016 (42 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (4.66839 ÷ 42): 0.111152
WOD Zone: 3007 (temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning temperature changes, there
were 83 upward & 95 downward changes.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: -2.70719
- 0-200m = 0.9084
- 200-400m = 0.1493
- 400-600m = -1.02566
- 600-800m = -1.11289
- 800-1000m = -1.63294
- 1000-3000m = -1.56284
- >3000m = 1.56944
Years involved: 1972 -> 2016 (44 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (-2.70719 ÷ 44): -0.061527
WOD Zone: 3008 (temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning temperature changes, there
were 87 upward & 89 downward changes.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: 0.07402
- 0-200m = 2.0468
- 200-400m = -0.0481
- 400-600m = -0.52895
- 600-800m = -0.31272
- 800-1000m = 0.00715
- 1000-3000m = -1.17623
- >3000m = 0.08607
Years involved: 1972 -> 2016 (44 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (0.07402 ÷ 44): 0.00168227
WOD Zone: 3009 (temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning temperature changes, there
were 68 upward & 67 downward changes.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: -0.19643
- 0-200m = 1.9297
- 200-400m = 0.1913
- 400-600m = 0.10839
- 600-800m = 0.04614
- 800-1000m = -0.27688
- 1000-3000m = -2.19327
- >3000m = -0.00181
Years involved: 1978 -> 2016 (38 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (-0.19643 ÷ 38): -0.00516921
WOD Zone: 3104 (temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning temperature changes, there
were 81 upward & 76 downward changes.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: -1.42916
- 0-200m = 1.9302
- 200-400m = 0.7069
- 400-600m = -0.7264
- 600-800m = -0.57124
- 800-1000m = 0.86863
- 1000-3000m = -3.5496
- >3000m = -0.08765
Years involved: 1975 -> 2016 (41 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (-1.42916 ÷ 41): -0.0348576
WOD Zone: 3105 (temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning temperature changes, there
were 96 upward & 97 downward changes.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: 2.17728
- 0-200m = 0.4601
- 200-400m = 1.7018
- 400-600m = 0.31875
- 600-800m = 0.17297
- 800-1000m = -0.19641
- 1000-3000m = -0.20958
- >3000m = -0.07035
Years involved: 1974 -> 2016 (42 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (2.17728 ÷ 42): 0.05184
WOD Zone: 3106 (temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning temperature changes, there
were 91 upward & 71 downward changes.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: 6.09537
- 0-200m = 1.6936
- 200-400m = 2.766
- 400-600m = 1.60388
- 600-800m = 0.46619
- 800-1000m = -0.11106
- 1000-3000m = -0.37121
- >3000m = 0.04797
Years involved: 1978 -> 2016 (38 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (6.09537 ÷ 38): 0.160404
WOD Zone: 3107 (temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning temperature changes, there
were 94 upward & 69 downward changes.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: -0.89245
- 0-200m = 0.0442
- 200-400m = -1.0879
- 400-600m = 0.01563
- 600-800m = 0.26903
- 800-1000m = -0.27865
- 1000-3000m = 0.23488
- >3000m = -0.08964
Years involved: 1978 -> 2016 (38 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (-0.89245 ÷ 38): -0.0234855
WOD Zone: 3108 (temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning temperature changes, there
were 76 upward & 84 downward changes.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: 9.95771
- 0-200m = -1.5515
- 200-400m = 3.9729
- 400-600m = 2.02371
- 600-800m = 1.11008
- 800-1000m = 0.48849
- 1000-3000m = 2.55861
- >3000m = 1.35542
Years involved: 1979 -> 2016 (37 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (9.95771 ÷ 37): 0.269127
WOD Zone: 3109 (temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning temperature changes, there
were 64 upward & 71 downward changes.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 6 levels: -1.54143
- 0-200m = 0.1763
- 200-400m = -0.2951
- 400-600m = -0.17892
- 600-800m = -0.01196
- 800-1000m = -0.20775
- 1000-3000m = -1.024
Years involved: 1978 -> 2016 (38 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (-1.54143 ÷ 38): -0.0405639
Combined averages for 27 total WOD Zones
(temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning change changes, the mean average
was 78 upward & 77 downward changes.
Average changes per depth level were:
Average change, all 7 levels: 0.86287
- 0-200m = 0.681752
- 200-400m = 0.591356
- 400-600m = 0.355097
- 600-800m = -0.0762393
- 800-1000m = -0.097927
- 1000-3000m = -0.73027
- >3000m = 0.139101
Years involved: 1961 -> 2016 (55 yrs)
Average annual combined change:
- (0.86287 ÷ 55): 0.0156885 C per year
VII. Conclusion
The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.
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