On The Origin of the Sea-level Seesaw - 3

Fig. 1 SLC and El Nino

I. Introduction

The advent of specialization has had a positive impact on some aspects of scientific research.

And it has had a positive impact on the applications of those discoveries to the problems of civilization.

But on the other hand, it has also engendered a type of myopia within scientific research which actually sometimes hampers discovery.

Which means that it also hampers the uses of discovered knowledge ("One effort to avoid being blind-sided by overly-specialized disciplines, which can create scientific myopia, is Sackler Colloquia" - Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 47).

A timely example of this anomaly of modern science is found within the word storms of El Niño meteorologists and climatologists that are being bandied about these days.

Fig. 2

That dialogue and discussion is very much like another word being blown about in modern journalism’s political discourse.

I am talking about a word we called "peace."

Like "El Niño" we can pronounce "peace", we can spell it, we can call it a noun, verb or adjective, use it in a sentence in a book, but in real life we can't very often find it, nor do we know what peace really is.

II. Begin With A Bottom-Line?

Fig. 3

Sometimes I like to start with the bottom line dogma first, then work my way back out of the muck, then progress into the nuts and bolts of the dogma.

Which, in this case, would be:

"The truth is, no one knows what really causes El Niño."

(On The Origin of the Sea-level Seesaw - 2, emphasis in orig.). By the use of "really" I think the scientist using that word meant "we know that the ocean, the atmosphere, weather and climate are involved, but we don't know much more than that."

One scientist was focusing on the seesaw issue of sea level, of all things, while doing El Niño autopsies, using, among other things, tide gauge data:

Fig. 4

"In his last years of El Niño research, Wyrtki focused on documenting the evolution of a complete El Niño cycle to answer the question still challenging scientists today: What starts and stops an El Niño?  Again, his main tool was sea level measurements."

(‘Klaus Wyrtki and El Niño’, emphasis added, PDF). That quote comes from the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC), and was taken from their journal "Climate", Vol. 6, No. 1, p. 13, 2006.

The graph at Fig. 1 shows one of their graphs dealing with the sea level seesaw.

III. Ok Dredd, So What Does Sea Level Have To Do With It?

They do not seem to possess the knowledge of the impact of ice sheet melt and gravity loss on sea level change (SLC).

So they unevenly associated general sea level fall (SLF) and general sea level rise (SLR) with some specific dynamics of an El Niño:

During very strong El Niño events, sea level drops abruptly in the tropical western Pacific and tides remain below normal for up to a year in the South Pacific, especially around Samoa. The Samoans call the wet stench of coral die-offs arising from the low sea levels "taimasa" (pronounced [kai' ma'sa]). Studying the climate effects of this particular variation of El Niño and how it may change in the future is a team of scientists at the International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa and at the University of New South Wales, Australia.

Fig. 5

Two El Niño Taimasa events have occurred in recent history: 1982/83 and 1997/98. El Niño Taimasa differs from other strong El Niño events, such as those in 1986/87 and 2009/10, according to Matthew Widlansky, postdoctoral fellow at the International Pacific Research Center, who spearheaded the study.

"We noticed from tide gauge measurements that toward the end of these very strong El Niño events, when sea levels around Guam quickly returned to normal, that tide gauges near Samoa actually continued to drop," recalls Widlansky.

(What is El Nino Taimasa, emphasis added). The use of those tide gauge records gave rise to another word for another observation within the seesaw:

Using statistical procedures to tease apart the causes of the sea-level seesaw between the North and South Pacific, the scientists found that it is associated with the well-known southward shift of weak trade winds during

Fig. 6

 the termination of El Niño, which in turn is associated with the development of the summer rain band.

Looking into the future with the help of computer climate models, the scientists are now studying how El Niño Taimasa will change with further warming of the planet. Their analyses show, moreover, that sea-level drops could be predictable seasons ahead, which may help island communities prepare for the next El Niño Taimasa.

(ibid, emphasis added). Yes, a new word has emerged from the research ("Taimasa").

But, like the word "peace" and "El Niño", "taimasa" is just another word to try to tame the observers into thinking they know all about this stuff.

IV. The Myopia

Since they did not know about (or worse they ignored) SLC based on ice sheet melt, ice sheet gravity, "ghost-water", and other interdisciplinary considerations, the application of SLC to "El Nifty cycles" is immature.

I also noticed that when they had a shadow in their understanding, they allowed some bias to "turn their knobs:"

Another observation by Wyrtki seems associated with El Nifty cycles: “I was intrigued by the fact that the North and South Equatorial Currents vary out of phase. When one is strong, the other is weak. Are the North and South Pacific subtropical gyres also operating out of phase? I was hoping they would be.

(ibid, p. 14, emphasis added). Hope is not a useful replacement for data or prior scientific work that bears upon the subject at hand.

Fig. 7 SLC impact on Zones AS, AX

Regular readers of Dredd Blog know that there is a sizeable body of scientific papers (beginning with Woodward, 1888) which have shown SLC in the form of SLR and SLF are caused by melting ice sheets far from the local area where SLC is observed (The Gravity of Sea Level Change, 2, 3, 4,, Proof of Concept, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).

The melting ice sheets not only add water volume to the ocean as they melt or calve, but additionally as ice sheet gravitational power weakens, there is a release of "ghost-water" from the coastal area near the ice sheet.

That water is already a part of the ocean water volume, but it is relocated toward the Equator by the Earth's rotational force, gravity, and ocean tides (The Ghost-Water Constant, 2, 3, 4, 5).

The randomness of these ice sheet phenomena impacts sea level in a manner that could skew the rise and fall records of sea level during events in the area where they call "El Niño SLF" a "taimasa."

Fig. 8

The graphic Fig. 7 shows the general location of Zones AS and AX where this takes place.

The general area is the small black square east of Australia.

The colors (orange, yellow, cyan, and blue) show how Antarctica, Greenland, and mountain glaciers impact SLC around the globe.

V. Discussion

Looking at the PSMSL station data in the two zones (AS featured in Fig. 2 - Fig. 3; AX featured in Fig. 4 - Fig. 5), I can't say that I see any general connection between general, global SLC and the phenomenon they call El Niño.

Remembering: 1) that the global climate system is damaged, and 2) that they are looking for symmetrical behavior (such as would take place with synchronous repetition in a non-damaged system), I am not surprised that general SLC is not generally related to El Niño events (The Damaged Global Climate System, 2, 3, 4, 5).

My opinion is bolstered by the graphs at Fig. 6 and Fig. 8, which show that major SLC takes place in the weakest of El Niño years.

In those two graphs, the large red squares at the bottom (where the years involved are shown), point out when SLC intersects with major El Niño years, and the smaller red squares show when less powerful El Niño years intersect with SLC.

The large blue squares on those graphs show major SLC in weak or non-existent El Niño years.

For your viewing, a list of El Niño years and other relevant data (so you can compare them with SLC years) is provided in a table shown at the end of this post (at Fig. 9 below).

VI. Conclusion

The seesaw phenomenon in the tide gauge records of SLC is a very normal phenomenon (Questionable "Scientific" Papers).

One year up some, one year down some, is standard fare (ibid).

Trends are the story that have importance, and we have in some cases a hundred years of records that show a trend, a pattern where sea level was and is on an SLF trajectory (Proof of Concept - 3, 5).

Likewise, we have records for an opposite trend, a pattern of SLR (Proof of Concept - 4).

Trade wind anomalies and other damaged global climate system events certainly can impact sea level in local areas during what are called  El Niño events, but like thermal expansion and land subsidence, these are minor local players in the saga of global SLC.

The previous post in this series is here.

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Fig. 9 (El Niño  years)

(*** = strongest, ** = next strongest, * = moderate, and no * means weak years):

Year	DJF	JFM	FMA	MAM	AMJ	MJJ	JJA	JAS	ASO	SON	OND	NDJ
1950	-1.4	-1.2	-1.1	-1.2	-1.1	-0.9	-0.6	-0.6	-0.5	-0.6	-0.7	-0.8
1951	-0.8	-0.6	-0.2	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.7	0.8	0.9	0.7	0.6
1952	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.2	0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3
1953	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.7
1954	0.7	0.4	0	-0.4	-0.5	-0.5	-0.5	-0.7	-0.7	-0.6	-0.5	-0.5
1955	-0.6	-0.6	-0.7	-0.7	-0.7	-0.6	-0.6	-0.6	-1.0	-1.4	-1.6	-1.4
1956	-0.9	-0.6	-0.6	-0.5	-0.5	-0.4	-0.5	-0.5	-0.4	-0.4	-0.5	-0.4
1957**	-0.3	0	0.3	0.6	0.7	0.9	1.0	1.2	1.1	1.2	1.3	1.6
1958**	1.7	1.5	1.2	0.8	0.7	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.6
1959	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.1	-0.2	-0.3	-0.3	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1
1960	-0.1	-0.2	-0.1	0	-0.1	-0.2	0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0	0
1961	0	0	-0.1	0	0.1	0.2	0.1	-0.1	-0.3	-0.3	-0.2	-0.2
1962	-0.2	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3	-0.3	-0.2	-0.1	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3	-0.3	-0.4
1963*	-0.4	-0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.7	1.0	1.1	1.2	1.2	1.1
1964*	1.0	0.6	0.1	-0.3	-0.6	-0.6	-0.7	-0.7	-0.8	-0.8	-0.8	-0.8
1965**	-0.5	-0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.4	0.7	1.0	1.3	1.6	1.7	1.8	1.5
1966**	1.3	1.0	0.9	0.6	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.1	0	-0.1	-0.1	-0.3
1967	-0.4	-0.5	-0.5	-0.5	-0.2	0	0	-0.2	-0.3	-0.4	-0.4	-0.5
1968	-0.7	-0.8	-0.7	-0.5	-0.1	0.2	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.6	0.8
1969	0.9	1.0	0.9	0.7	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.5	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.7
1970	0.6	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.1	-0.3	-0.6	-0.8	-0.8	-0.8	-0.9	-1.2
1971	-1.3	-1.3	-1.1	-0.9	-0.8	-0.7	-0.8	-0.7	-0.8	-0.8	-0.9	-0.8
1972**	-0.7	-0.4	0	0.3	0.6	0.8	1.1	1.3	1.5	1.8	2.0	1.9
1973**	1.7	1.2	0.6	0	-0.4	-0.8	-1.0	-1.2	-1.4	-1.7	-1.9	-1.9
1974	-1.7	-1.5	-1.2	-1.0	-0.9	-0.8	-0.6	-0.4	-0.4	-0.6	-0.7	-0.6
1975	-0.5	-0.5	-0.6	-0.6	-0.7	-0.8	-1.0	-1.1	-1.3	-1.4	-1.5	-1.6
1976	-1.5	-1.1	-0.7	-0.4	-0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.7	0.8	0.8
1977	0.7	0.6	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.8	0.8
1978	0.7	0.4	0.1	-0.2	-0.3	-0.3	-0.4	-0.4	-0.4	-0.3	-0.1	0
1979	0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.6
1980	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.2	0	0.1	0.1	0
1981	-0.2	-0.4	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.3	-0.3	-0.3	-0.2	-0.1	-0.1	0
1982***	0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.8	1.0	1.5	1.9	2.1	2.1
1983***	2.1	1.8	1.5	1.2	1.0	0.7	0.3	0	-0.3	-0.6	-0.8	-0.8
1984	-0.5	-0.3	-0.3	-0.4	-0.4	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.3	-0.6	-0.9	-1.1
1985	-0.9	-0.7	-0.7	-0.7	-0.7	-0.6	-0.4	-0.4	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.3
1986*	-0.4	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.1	0	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.9	1.0	1.1
1987*	1.1	1.2	1.1	1.0	0.9	1.1	1.4	1.6	1.6	1.4	1.2	1.1
1988*	0.8	0.5	0.1	-0.3	-0.8	-1.2	-1.2	-1.1	-1.2	-1.4	-1.7	-1.8
1989	-1.6	-1.4	-1.1	-0.9	-0.6	-0.4	-0.3	-0.3	-0.3	-0.3	-0.2	-0.1
1990	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.4
1991*	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.8	1.2	1.4
1992*	1.6	1.5	1.4	1.2	1.0	0.8	0.5	0.2	0	-0.1	-0.1	0
1993	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.7	0.8	0.6	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1
1994	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.6	0.9	1.0
1995	0.9	0.7	0.5	0.3	0.2	0	-0.2	-0.5	-0.7	-0.9	-1.0	-0.9
1996	-0.9	-0.7	-0.6	-0.4	-0.2	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3	-0.3	-0.4	-0.4	-0.5
1997***	-0.5	-0.4	-0.2	0.1	0.6	1.0	1.4	1.7	2.0	2.2	2.3	2.3
1998***	2.1	1.8	1.4	1.0	0.5	-0.1	-0.7	-1.0	-1.2	-1.2	-1.3	-1.4
1999	-1.4	-1.2	-1.0	-0.9	-0.9	-1.0	-1.0	-1.0	-1.1	-1.2	-1.4	-1.6
2000	-1.6	-1.4	-1.1	-0.9	-0.7	-0.7	-0.6	-0.5	-0.6	-0.7	-0.8	-0.8
2001	-0.7	-0.6	-0.5	-0.3	-0.2	-0.1	0	-0.1	-0.1	-0.2	-0.3	-0.3
2002*	-0.2	-0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.8	0.9	1.0	1.2	1.3	1.1
2003*	0.9	0.6	0.4	0	-0.2	-0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.4
2004	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7
2005	0.6	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.1	0	0	-0.1	-0.4	-0.7
2006	-0.7	-0.6	-0.4	-0.2	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.8	0.9	1.0
2007	0.7	0.3	0	-0.1	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3	-0.6	-0.8	-1.1	-1.2	-1.3
2008	-1.4	-1.3	-1.1	-0.9	-0.7	-0.5	-0.3	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3	-0.5	-0.7
2009*	-0.8	-0.7	-0.4	-0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.7	1.0	1.2	1.3
2010*	1.3	1.1	0.8	0.5	0	-0.4	-0.8	-1.1	-1.3	-1.4	-1.3	-1.4
2011	-1.3	-1.1	-0.8	-0.6	-0.3	-0.2	-0.3	-0.5	-0.7	-0.9	-0.9	-0.8
2012	-0.7	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.2	-0.2
2013	-0.4	-0.5	-0.3	-0.2	-0.2	-0.2	-0.2	-0.2	-0.2	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3
2014	-0.5	-0.6	-0.4	-0.2	0	0	0	0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.6
2015***	0.5	0.4	0.5	0.7	0.9	1.0	1.2	1.5	1.8	2.1	2.2	2.3
2016***	2.2	2.0

Sources: NOAA, elnino dot com, ggweather

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