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| The New Yorker |
Friday, November 11, 2016
Thursday, November 10, 2016
Awe Topsy
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| Yes, it really happened |
Down through time, there have been many autopsies of historical events.
They are conducted because of the concept of "who knew?" or "should have known" how to stay the course.
The should-have-known is a legal term emanating from one of the legal concepts about the knowledge we are, as adults, required to have and to use.
Under our system of jurisprudence we are held to factors such as "what did we know" and "when did we know it", but, that is not the end of the matter, because we are also held to the standard of "what we should have known" and "when we should have known it" (You Should Have Known Better, PDF).
You might call it "the law of when," which can be made to seem out of the reach of comprehension where the dynamics involved in some way challenge our trance package or our world view:
"The First Law of 'When': the more critical an issue is to the future of our civilization, the difficulty of determining when that critical issue will take effect tends to increase exponentially.(Quotes Page). The recent election is a case in point because it does beg some of the questions about "should have known."
The Second Law of 'When': the greater the amount of time it takes for that critical issue to play out completely tends to exponentially diminish Civilization's grasp of that critical issue.
The Third Law of 'When': the more destructive the impact which that critical issue would have on civilization tends to exponentially increase the time when that critical event will be understood to have begun to take place."
In terms of prescience, there are none more blind to the future than those who refuse to be prescient, and none more prescient than those who simplify it:
Professor Allan Lichtman ... has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in every presidential election since 1984.(Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly). Others that were better equipped to discern the matter utterly failed to do it (Why HuffPost’s Presidential Forecast Didn’t See A Donald Trump Win Coming).
When we sat down in May, he explained how he comes to a decision.
Lichtman's prediction isn't based on horse-race polls, shifting demographics or his own political opinions. Rather, he uses a system of true/false statements he calls the "Keys to the White House" to determine his predicted winner.
And this year, he says, Donald Trump is the favorite to win.
...
So very, very narrowly, the keys point to a Trump victory. But I would say, more to the point, they point to a generic Republican victory ...
Similarly, but long ago, a German uh-oh (shown by the book cover at the top of this post) is a culture-wide case where many should have known, but didn't.
The book details the blindness of many in Germany and the world at that time, and is an indictment of those people who should have known it was tending to happen, but utterly failed to take note.
Anyway, for developing vision the basic drill is to be well read and aware:
The United States is extremely lucky that no honest, charismatic figure has arisen. Every charismatic figure is such an obvious crook that he destroys himself, like McCarthy or Nixon or the evangelist preachers. If somebody comes along who is charismatic and honest this country is in real trouble because of the frustration, disillusionment, the justified anger and the absence of any coherent response. What are people supposed to think if someone says ‘I have got an answer, we have an enemy’? There it was the Jews. Here it will be the illegal immigrants and the blacks. We will be told that white males are a persecuted minority. We will be told we have to defend ourselves and the honor of the nation. Military force will be exalted. People will be beaten up. This could become an overwhelming force. And if it happens it will be more dangerous than Germany. The United States is the world power. Germany was powerful but had more powerful antagonists. I don’t think all this is very far away. If the polls are accurate it is not the Republicans but the right-wing Republicans, the crazed Republicans, who will sweep the next election.”(Noam Chomsky, April 2010, emphasis added). That was spot on, some six years ago, concerning the wrong direction the people polled in the U.S.eh? say the country is going, and has been going (for decades).
So let's consider the source of the prescience, the foresight:
Noam #Chomsky isn't a figure that a lot of American voters are going to be overly familiar with. He's certainly not ignored as he is one of the most-cited people in the history of writing. In fact according to an ancient article from MIT News "his 3,874 citations in the Arts and Humanities Citation Index between 1980 and 1992 make him the most cited living person in that period and the eighth most cited source overrall--just behind famed psychiatrist Sigmund Freud and just ahead of philosopher Georg Hegel"(ibid). Yep, there are two types of being "well read," one is reading and writing a lot, the other is when lots of people are reading your writings.
Nevertheless, as Professor Lichtman has shown by 30 years of exact prediction of who would win each presidential election, one does not have to be a Noam Chomsky to be prescient.
On to another case.
The two political parties competing for power in this election had different reactions to the two (in establishment eyes) radical candidates (Trump & Sanders) who were surging and giving the establishment sleepless nights (The Donald University vs. The Lord GOP University, Doomer Tuesday).
Eventually the party that won had backed off from their decision to crush their "unworthy radical candidate" (Trump), however, the other party (that lost) took the opposite approach and surreptitiously worked to thwart the will of the primary election voters.
They officially (albeit surreptitiously) resisted their "unworthy radical candidate" (Sanders).
They had no vision, thus, were doomed to experience the pain of unawareness.
The result of the autopsy, then, is demise by way of a type of ignorance, which is ignoring the plight of the people (cf. Goodbye, American neoliberalism. A new era is here).
In short, they suffered from a lack of vision.
They should have known better.
The next post in this series is here.
"The country I come from is called 'The Midwest' " ...
Wednesday, November 9, 2016
Abrupt Political Climate Change
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| "It Can't Happen Here" |
The phrase indicates that climate is changing faster than anticipated.
Now, applying the phrase to political science, we see how difficult it is for the business as usual attitude to be changed so that people can become aware (The Donald University vs. The Lord GOP University).
Interestingly, since the climate deniers have now been voted into power like never before, this political climate change will perpetuate and give new meaning to the phrase "worse than previously thought."
Abrupt change in both politics and climate is still in our future:
"The vigorous, unbalanced melting supports the hypothesis that a significant increase in ocean heat influx into ASE sub-ice-shelf cavities took place in the mid-2000s. The synchronous but diverse evolutions of these glaciers illustrate how combinations of oceanography and topography modulate rapid submarine melting to hasten mass loss and glacier retreat from West Antarctica.(Rignot on W. Antarctica, Oct 26, 2016). Some things cannot be wished away or ignored away (Evolution From Left to Right, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).
...
The Amundsen Sea embayment (ASE) continues to be the region with the largest net mass loss in Antarctica1,2, and some of the highest rates of ice shelf bottom melting. Evidence suggests that increased circulation of warm and salty Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) in the cavities underneath the ice shelves is a main trigger of, and contributor to, ice loss in the region. The increased inflow of ocean heat and enhanced bottom ice melting in the cavities thins the ice shelves, contributing to grounding line retreat and weakening the contact with underlying bedrock, side margins, stabilizing ridges and pinning points such as ice rises. Consequently, the buttressing that the ice shelves afford their tributary glaciers diminishes causing the glaciers to accelerate and thin further, especially if the enhanced melting is concentrated near the grounding line."
Hunker down (A Tale of Coup Cities - 13).
Monday, November 7, 2016
Calling All Cars: The Case of the "Missing Six" - 5
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| Fig. 1 |
I. Background
Guess what ... all of "the golden stations" have now been found (Calling All Cars: The Case of the "Missing Six", 2, 3, 4).
This series started when we wannabees were watching a video of Dr. Jerry X. Mitrovica, wherein he mentioned "the golden tide gauge stations" that had been identified in a previous scientific paper.
They were called by that "golden" name because they were said to be more pure than others in the sense of not being in locations where the land was, for various possible reasons, moving up or down (Uplifting Myths).
At that time I could not find all of them clearly listed in any of the papers or videos.
But, while watching the two videos from yesterday's post (The Bathtub Model Doesn't Hold Water - 3) I noticed that one location in the second video ("Taking The Fingerprints ...") had a copy of a readable list which ended up being the real "golden 23" list (Fig. 1).
II. The Scoop On The Golden Twenty-Three
The PSMSL tide gauge station names, PSMSL station numbers, and WOD Zone numbers
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| Fig. 2 The Golden 23 |
The graph of the sea level change in the golden 23 zones is shown in Fig. 3.
The 1.6 area in the golden zones analysis is 82.747 mm higher than the mean average of the tide gauge station records.
The 1.5 area in the golden zones analysis is 68.956 mm higher than the mean average of the tide gauge station records.
Recall that yesterday I pointed out the difference in sea level between the relevant equatorial tide gauge zones compared with the two higher areas:
Note that the highest sea level (1.6 area) is 80.834 mm higher than the tide gauge station average shown in panel three on Fig. 3.(The Bathtub Model Doesn't Hold Water - 3, emphasis added). So, there is only a 1.913 mm difference (82.747 mm - 80.834 mm) between the golden 23 zones and the equatorial zones @ the 1.6 area, and there is only a 1.594 mm difference (68.956 mm - 67.362 mm) @ the 1.5 area (see Fig. 2 here for an explanation of "1.6 area" and "1.5 area").
The second highest point (in the "1.5 area") is 67.362 mm higher than the tide gauge station average.
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| Fig. 3 Sea level change @ "golden 23" zones |
Even more of a testimony to the value of PSMSL tide gauge station records is that these comparisons are between hundreds of different tide gauge station records, not just the basic golden 23.
Note that there are only 15 golden WOD Zones, because some of the golden 23 tide gauge stations are in the same WOD Zone ("golden 23" WOD Zones: 7500, 7400, 7312, 7311, 7308, 7300, 7215, 7208, 7201, 7007, 5305, 3417, 3317, 1401, and 1400).
III. The Scoop On Monkey Business Insider
The clueless Monkey Business Insider article I criticized strongly was utterly wrong to mindlessly attack the source of our knowledge about what Oil-Qaeda is deliberately causing (The Bathtub Model Doesn't Hold Water - 3, The Warming Science Commentariat - 10).
The total stations for the equatorial list and the golden 23 list is 436 individual tide gauge station records (134 "equatorial" + 302 "golden 23") spanning the years 1807 - 2014 (207 years).
In the next section, to further expose them, I will list all of the golden 23 WOD Zones, as well as all of the PSMSL tide gauge stations within those zones.
IV. The Data Sources
The WOD Zones of the golden 23 PSMSL tide gauge stations, as well as those stations with links to the PSMSL website for those stations, are listed here (Stn# in red indicates a golden 23 station):
Zone [7500] had [58] stations:
Stn# 916, Stn# 432, Stn# 435, Stn# 1793, Stn# 1109, Stn# 944, Stn# 1281, Stn# 361, Stn# 21, Stn# 1074, Stn# 802, Stn# 1526, Stn# 190, Stn# 95, Stn# 1505, Stn# 286, Stn# 350, Stn# 2280, Stn# 2278, Stn# 2279, Stn# 1878, Stn# 1773, Stn# 2282, Stn# 2283, Stn# 982, Stn# 202, Stn# 2284, Stn# 1214, Stn# 1758, Stn# 2011, Stn# 257, Stn# 2285, Stn# 1832, Stn# 967, Stn# 1732, Stn# 66, Stn# 1700, Stn# 939, Stn# 1731, Stn# 1771, Stn# 5, Stn# 1854, Stn# 765, Stn# 15, Stn# 1774, Stn# 936, Stn# 1794, Stn# 1215, Stn# 755, Stn# 1772, Stn# 1491, Stn# 1112, Stn# 314, Stn# 1775, Stn# 1867, Stn# 861, Stn# 219, Stn# 1856
Zone [7400] had [35] stations:
Stn# 467, Stn# 454, Stn# 1347, Stn# 1294, Stn# 1, Stn# 1301, Stn# 1247, Stn# 1921, Stn# 457, Stn# 1078, Stn# 1747, Stn# 466, Stn# 1915, Stn# 459, Stn# 1801, Stn# 1918, Stn# 469, Stn# 1795, Stn# 1482, Stn# 791, Stn# 1402, Stn# 561, Stn# 1806, Stn# 485, Stn# 1051, Stn# 1807, Stn# 1871, Stn# 484, Stn# 763, Stn# 1808, Stn# 2053, Stn# 1897, Stn# 483, Stn# 1898, Stn# 1855
Zone [7312] had [7] stations:
Stn# 2125, Stn# 1394, Stn# 10, Stn# 437, Stn# 1663, Stn# 1352, Stn# 508
Zone [7311] had [11] stations:
Stn# 795, Stn# 1457, Stn# 1013, Stn# 2126, Stn# 377, Stn# 245, Stn# 717, Stn# 766, Stn# 883, Stn# 256, Stn# 158
Zone [7308] had [13] stations:
Stn# 1884, Stn# 1715, Stn# 1156, Stn# 2215, Stn# 246, Stn# 1641, Stn# 1136, Stn# 1670, Stn# 316, Stn# 716, Stn# 112, Stn# 395, Stn# 1537
Zone [7300] had [30] stations:
Stn# 981, Stn# 506, Stn# 52, Stn# 1336, Stn# 1425, Stn# 1456, Stn# 162, Stn# 209, Stn# 985, Stn# 1883, Stn# 1809, Stn# 2047, Stn# 490, Stn# 2117, Stn# 2055, Stn# 488, Stn# 2054, Stn# 496, Stn# 1810, Stn# 1940, Stn# 1455, Stn# 2056, Stn# 1460, Stn# 208, Stn# 960, Stn# 1813, Stn# 2058, Stn# 2059, Stn# 498, Stn# 2057
Zone [7215] had [7] stations:
Stn# 2129, Stn# 756, Stn# 155, Stn# 823, Stn# 2273, Stn# 521, Stn# 2128
Zone [7208] had [27] stations:
Stn# 2286, Stn# 2289, Stn# 1297, Stn# 1909, Stn# 690, Stn# 526, Stn# 2296, Stn# 1193, Stn# 1714, Stn# 199, Stn# 428, Stn# 1638, Stn# 520, Stn# 1106, Stn# 1107, Stn# 188, Stn# 1701, Stn# 1187, Stn# 1424, Stn# 363, Stn# 1717, Stn# 1696, Stn# 1669, Stn# 270, Stn# 1182, Stn# 1858, Stn# 2123
Zone [7201] had [16] stations:
Stn# 593, Stn# 1710, Stn# 2048, Stn# 2051, Stn# 2066, Stn# 585, Stn# 568, Stn# 2064, Stn# 2065, Stn# 303, Stn# 1803, Stn# 2050, Stn# 590, Stn# 565, Stn# 1802, Stn# 2049
Zone [7007] had [7] stations:
Stn# 456, Stn# 639, Stn# 163, Stn# 581, Stn# 1783, Stn# 1530, Stn# 169
Zone [5305] had [12] stations:
Stn# 223, Stn# 857, Stn# 819, Stn# 1542, Stn# 897, Stn# 157, Stn# 832, Stn# 864, Stn# 433, Stn# 431, Stn# 434, Stn# 764
Zone [3417] had [11] stations:
Stn# 221, Stn# 500, Stn# 247, Stn# 259, Stn# 998, Stn# 1643, Stn# 252, Stn# 136, Stn# 993, Stn# 1004, Stn# 787
Zone [3317] had [9] stations:
Stn# 217, Stn# 150, Stn# 978, Stn# 1590, Stn# 1613, Stn# 1750, Stn# 1621, Stn# 996, Stn# 1065
Zone [1401] had [41] stations:
Stn# 761, Stn# 353, Stn# 1859, Stn# 1577, Stn# 1578, Stn# 685, Stn# 352, Stn# 1574, Stn# 1706, Stn# 1718, Stn# 1945, Stn# 760, Stn# 2080, Stn# 106, Stn# 129, Stn# 2092, Stn# 105, Stn# 2086, Stn# 2082, Stn# 103, Stn# 2095, Stn# 990, Stn# 2096, Stn# 2075, Stn# 1262, Stn# 2087, Stn# 972, Stn# 2097, Stn# 101, Stn# 2098, Stn# 100, Stn# 2144, Stn# 87, Stn# 2100, Stn# 39, Stn# 168, Stn# 154, Stn# 2099, Stn# 1075, Stn# 1009, Stn# 1817
Zone [1400] had [18] stations:
Stn# 474, Stn# 1383, Stn# 453, Stn# 1469, Stn# 958, Stn# 61, Stn# 980, Stn# 1468, Stn# 1929, Stn# 109, Stn# 2084, Stn# 108, Stn# 2078, Stn# 59, Stn# 2090, Stn# 788, Stn# 1811, Stn# 1764
Total Stations: 302
V. Conclusion
Keep a close eye on the warming science commentariat, and call them out when they cover up for Oil-Qaeda.
The previous post in this series is here.
Sunday, November 6, 2016
The Bathtub Model Doesn't Hold Water - 3
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| Fig. 1 Highest sea level areas |
I. Background
The previous post on Dredd Blog focused on, among other things, a clueless article in the Monkey Business Insider (The Warming Science Commentariat - 10, Section III).
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| Fig. 2 Relative sea levels (Cryosphere) |
II. The Reality
The reality is that it is quite easy to get the picture from tide gauge station records.
First off, one needs to know where the high sea levels are gravitationally and rotationally located (Earth gravity, ice sheet gravity, and the Earth's rotation create these highest sea level areas; see The Gravity of Sea Level Change, 2, 3, 4).
The graphics at Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 show the higher and highest areas of the ocean (highest is in the Pacific with a 1.6 times higher area, and the next highest is in the Indian and South Atlantic ocean areas).
Next, to calculate the general sea level in those areas, all one needs to do is to get the sea level readings of a tide gauge station in the correct area, then multiply the appropriate values by 1.5 (Indian & S. Atlantic) or multiply by 1.6 (Pacific) to calculate those levels at any given time.
Then you can email the marine life there in the middle of nowhere and tell them about the sea level there. /snark
You can the use the tide gauge station record, as is, to inform humans who live near the tide gauge station about sea levels in their area.
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| Fig. 3 |
III. An Example
The graph at Fig. 3 is an example calculation from Dredd Blog software modules.
Those modules determine which WOD zones are along the equator, then query an SQL database (containing 1,465 PSMSL tide gauge station records from stations located around the globe) to determine which tide gauge station records to use.
Those data are averaged and changes are calculated, including the changes and sea level at the highest ocean levels way out in the middle of the ocean, far away from those stations.
Notice that Fig. 3 has four different panels based on the same data from the stations and zones listed in Section IV below.
The first panel ("RLR tide gauge sea level") pictures the RLR (Revised Local Reference) sea level.
The second panel ("sea level change @ tide gauges") shows the average change in sea level at the specified tide gauge stations.
Panel three ("sea level in 1.6 area") depicts the mean average of those same tide gauge stations multiplied by 1.6 (the area outlined as "1.6" in Fig. 2, its relative area marked by a red outlined rectangle with a small square at the center in Fig. 1).
The fourth and last panel ("sea level in 1.5 area") is the lower sea level in the area outlined as "1.5" on Fig. 2 (and shown by the other two rectangles at the Indian Ocean and the S. Atlantic on Fig. 1).
Note that the highest sea level (1.6 area) is 80.834 mm higher than the tide gauge station average shown in panel three on Fig. 3.
The second highest point (in the "1.5 area") is 67.362 mm higher than the tide gauge station average.
IV. The WOD Zones & PSMSL Stations
This section lists the zones and the tide gauge stations used to generate the data for the graph at Fig. 3 in Section III above (http links are provided below, to each PSMSL tide gauge station record used).
The WOD zone map is shown at Fig. 1:
Zone [1000] had [2] stations:
Stn# 1049, Stn# 389
Zone [1001] had [0] stations.
Zone [1002] had [0] stations.
Zone [1003] had [0] stations.
Zone [1004] had [0] stations.
Zone [1005] had [0] stations.
Zone [1006] had [0] stations.
Zone [1007] had [4] stations:
Stn# 438, Stn# 1072, Stn# 1258, Stn# 1753
Zone [1008] had [0] stations.
Zone [1009] had [5] stations:
Stn# 2195, Stn# 1752, Stn# 1676, Stn# 446, Stn# 2230
Zone [1010] had [25] stations:
Stn# 1595, Stn# 1594, Stn# 1591, Stn# 1593, Stn# 1677, Stn# 248, Stn# 1702, Stn# 1678, Stn# 1589, Stn# 1592, Stn# 1703, Stn# 1183, Stn# 1746, Stn# 1534, Stn# 2032, Stn# 1351, Stn# 2068, Stn# 2033, Stn# 1248, Stn# 2034, Stn# 1275, Stn# 1894, Stn# 724, Stn# 1895, Stn# 1896
Zone [1011] had [12] stations:
Stn# 1730, Stn# 1819, Stn# 1833, Stn# 1893, Stn# 1879, Stn# 1733, Stn# 1876, Stn# 1834, Stn# 1877, Stn# 1734, Stn# 2155, Stn# 207
Zone [1012] had [11] stations:
Stn# 1709, Stn# 2156, Stn# 537, Stn# 2152, Stn# 2153, Stn# 2175, Stn# 260, Stn# 2154, Stn# 2158, Stn# 2174, Stn# 1708
Zone [1013] had [1] station:
Stn# 1252
Zone [1014] had [0] stations.
Zone [1015] had [4] stations:
Stn# 528, Stn# 1473, Stn# 1370, Stn# 1925
Zone [1016] had [1] station:
Stn# 513
Zone [1017] had [6] stations:
Stn# 1381, Stn# 1579, Stn# 1739, Stn# 1804, Stn# 1217, Stn# 1838
Zone [3000] had [0] stations.
Zone [3001] had [1] station:
Stn# 938
Zone [3002] had [0] stations.
Zone [3003] had [2] stations:
Stn# 2183, Stn# 1600
Zone [3004] had [1] station:
Stn# 2198
Zone [3005] had [1] station:
Stn# 1846
Zone [3006] had [0] stations.
Zone [3007] had [3] stations:
Stn# 1740, Stn# 2190, Stn# 1707
Zone [3008] had [0] stations.
Zone [3009] had [0] stations.
Zone [3010] had [2] stations:
Stn# 2193, Stn# 2199
Zone [3011] had [2] stations:
Stn# 2197, Stn# 2200
Zone [3012] had [0] stations.
Zone [3013] had [1] station:
Stn# 2274
Zone [3014] had [7] stations:
Stn# 1303, Stn# 439, Stn# 1610, Stn# 1609, Stn# 1860, Stn# 1304, Stn# 1254
Zone [3015] had [4] stations:
Stn# 1164, Stn# 1608, Stn# 1373, Stn# 1861
Zone [3016] had [2] stations:
Stn# 1374, Stn# 1844
Zone [3017] had [2] stations:
Stn# 1452, Stn# 1839
Zone [5000] had [0] stations.
Zone [5001] had [1] station:
Stn# 1831
Zone [5002] had [0] stations.
Zone [5003] had [2] stations:
Stn# 556, Stn# 559
Zone [5004] had [2] stations:
Stn# 589, Stn# 580
Zone [5005] had [1] station:
Stn# 1975
Zone [5006] had [0] stations.
Zone [5007] had [2] stations:
Stn# 1277, Stn# 771
Zone [5008] had [4] stations:
Stn# 555, Stn# 544, Stn# 927, Stn# 475
Zone [5009] had [1] station:
Stn# 1645
Zone [5010] had [0] stations.
Zone [5011] had [0] stations.
Zone [5012] had [0] stations.
Zone [5013] had [0] stations.
Zone [5014] had [1] station:
Stn# 1555
Zone [5015] had [1] station:
Stn# 1450
Zone [5016] had [0] stations.
Zone [5017] had [2] stations:
Stn# 575, Stn# 1329
Zone [7000] had [2] stations:
Stn# 1313, Stn# 331
Zone [7001] had [0] stations.
Zone [7002] had [0] stations.
Zone [7003] had [0] stations.
Zone [7004] had [0] stations.
Zone [7005] had [1] station:
Stn# 2012
Zone [7006] had [0] stations.
Zone [7007] had [7] stations:
Stn# 456, Stn# 639, Stn# 163, Stn# 581, Stn# 1783, Stn# 1530, Stn# 169
Zone [7008] had [5] stations:
Stn# 464, Stn# 844, Stn# 2189, Stn# 668, Stn# 1571
Zone [7009] had [0] stations.
Zone [7010] had [0] stations.
Zone [7011] had [0] stations.
Zone [7012] had [0] stations.
Zone [7013] had [0] stations.
Zone [7014] had [0] stations.
Zone [7015] had [3] stations:
Stn# 1361, Stn# 801, Stn# 1371
Zone [7016] had [0] stations.
Zone [7017] had [0] stations.
Total Stations: 134
RE "Zone [7016] had [0] stations" and "Zone [7017] had [0] stations" etc ... note that zones way out in the ocean (where no people are) and zones over land only, will not have tide gauge stations.
For some reason, the marine life out there are unconcerned with the sea level changes since it does not affect them as it does humans.
V. Conclusion
The bathtub model trance (Choose Your Trances Carefully, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) is not a good choice, as the Monkey Business Insider will hopefully find out soon enough.
The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.
Homework for the Monkey Business Insider ... watch these, put your lab coat on, and get a fingerprint kit:
08:00 "the global average ... what seems to be a very logical thing to do has led us astray for the last hundred years ... the mainstream way of doing this ..."