 |
| Fig. 1 Bathtub model? |
Even physics textbooks can be misleading in places where the science is relatively stable ("This same inconsistency is common to all advanced thermodynamics textbooks" - In Search Of Ocean Heat - 15).
The most misleading examples tend to be in global warming induced climate change related textbooks applied to sea level change (ibid).
This has been discussed in previous posts here on Dredd Blog (e.g. World Ocean Database Project - 6, The Ghost-Water Constant - 4, The Bathtub Model Doesn't Hold Water).
The long-term aspects of Sea Level Change (SLC) are nothing at all like the bathtub model because the ocean is not at all like a bathtub (The Gravity of Sea Level Change, 2, 3, 4, 5; The Photon Current, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9).
Today's graphs, like many before here on Dredd Blog, show the reality of SLC in terms of both Sea Level Rise (SLR) and Sea Level Fall (SLF).
The graphs are three-color lines (blue, green, and brown) where blue is estimated SLC in the past, green is measured (in situ) sea level, and brown in projected future sea level change (Sea Level Rise A, Sea Level Rise B, Sea Level Fall).
In other words, both the backwards (historical estimates) and forward (future estimates) are calculated based upon the measurements recorded in the PSMSL data.
This makes for some repeating patterns because the past and future are subsets of the present, with changes based upon GISS and NOAA forward and backward projected/measured global values (and some similar ACCELERATION data).
These graph results are based on and caused by location because the most important thing with sea level change is, as with real estate, "location, location, and location".
The data are compilations of the Permanent Service For Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) at coastline locations (see next-to-last column "Coastline" at that PSMSL link).
What this means is that the graphs are based on the tide gauge stations along that coastline number.
The following videos will give further clarity to sea level change concepts.
The previous post in this series is here.
I offer two tests for scientific papers that concern sea level change: 1) do they mention seaports?; 2) do they mention sea level fall? (if they do not they are missing FUNDAMENTAL understanding). I do a word search for "sea port" and "sea level fall" when I read such papers. The weight I give those papers is based on whether or not they refer to those two issues.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the videos, very informative :)
ReplyDelete