| On the trail ... |
Regular readers know (as this series shows) that I am "on the case" in the matter of the hypothesis which asserts that "thermal expansion is the major cause of sea level rise in the 20th and 21st centuries".
I can tell you that I have now completed the modules that process all layers of the World Ocean Database (WOD), a database containing billions of measurements taken by hundreds of scientists over many years (see e.g. Databases Galore - 18).
The newly completed modules are NOT for creating graphs.
They are for using the (~0.97 billion measurements) I have used to make SQL databases for detecting changes in temperature and salinity in every depth level of every square mile of every ocean on planet Earth (where WOD measurements have been taken and recorded).
These final product of these three modules is a detailing of changes, and the net result of such changes in terms of increase or decrease in temperature and in salinity of ocean water.
The process focuses on "latitude layers" which are simply eighteen bands of ten degrees latitude in breadth, spanning the entire globe.
They meet at the Equator (see The Layered Approach To Big Water - 8 for a look at the Northern Hemisphere layers).
II. The Process
First I gather the measurements by year, by month, and by day of year.
The year-data is the only one that has a variable number of final components based upon which years in which data was gathered.
The month-data has a fixed number of final components, 12, one for each month.
The day-of-year-data also has a fixed number of final components, 366, one for each day of the year, including leap years.
The software modules load rows of data from an SQL server to generate a mean average of all measurements for each module (i.e. by-year module, by-day-of-year module, and by-month module).
As you might surmise, the by-year module focuses on detecting temperature changes (warming & cooling) year by year; the by-day-of-year modules focuses on detecting temperature changes (warming & cooling) day to day; and the by-month module focuses on detecting temperature changes (warming & cooling) month by month.
They ignore measurements that are not an increase or decrease in temperature and salinity compared to the previous measurement they analyzed.
In other words, depending on the module, if two sequential years, days, or months have the same mean average, there is no change, so depending on the module, the process moves to the next year, day, or month.
Changes are recorded as increases and decreases as the process traverses the data, until the last measurement is processed, then a compilation is generated.
I will have enough to bore you before all is said and done, because there are eighteen layers times 366 + eighteen layers times 12, and eighteen layers times x years to consider.
Fortunately, I did make a section in each report where the full layer values are recorded, which is much smaller in terms of data, than the entire report.
III. An Example
Following is an example printout of LAYER EIGHT from the by-month module (NOTE: L1 = 0-200m, L2 = 201-400m, L3 = 401-600m, L4 = 601-800m, L5 = 801-1000m, L6 = 1001-3000m, and L7 = >3000m):
month = 1
Temperature Values (mean avg.):
L1= 14.0434, L2= 10.4838, L3= 7.97412, L4= 6.43355, L5= 5.51067, L6= 3.46801, L7= 1.0671
Salinity Values (mean avg.):
L1= 29.9163, L2= 33.1275, L3= 32.6764, L4= 31.9657, L5= 31.8679, L6= 31.9872, L7= 14.0654
month = 2
Temperature Values (mean avg.):
L1= 14.8087, L2= 10.6887, L3= 8.15225, L4= 6.44354, L5= 5.33347, L6= 3.64096, L7= 1.09391
Salinity Values (mean avg.):
L1= 30.9779, L2= 34.2648, L3= 34.2777, L4= 33.9782, L5= 33.916, L6= 33.8689, L7= 16.8543
month = 3
Temperature Values (mean avg.):
L1= 14.0587, L2= 10.613, L3= 7.91122, L4= 6.52757, L5= 5.43234, L6= 3.83356, L7= 1.10093
Salinity Values (mean avg.):
L1= 30.7209, L2= 34.0975, L3= 34.2926, L4= 34.1917, L5= 34.2082, L6= 33.4592, L7= 15.7349
month = 4
Temperature Values (mean avg.):
L1= 15.273, L2= 11.0116, L3= 8.246, L4= 6.63033, L5= 5.58023, L6= 3.78207, L7= 1.10204
Salinity Values (mean avg.):
L1= 31.2721, L2= 34.4654, L3= 33.9041, L4= 33.7741, L5= 34.0265, L6= 33.2908, L7= 16.4524
month = 5
Temperature Values (mean avg.):
L1= 14.5128, L2= 10.7849, L3= 8.09729, L4= 6.52235, L5= 5.64661, L6= 3.85766, L7= 0.995954
Salinity Values (mean avg.):
L1= 30.0223, L2= 33.8994, L3= 33.5211, L4= 33.2569, L5= 33.2614, L6= 33.0917, L7= 12.1004
month = 6
Temperature Values (mean avg.):
L1= 13.0053, L2= 10.4697, L3= 7.77111, L4= 6.28189, L5= 5.29967, L6= 3.53573, L7= 1.05035
Salinity Values (mean avg.):
L1= 30.198, L2= 33.8953, L3= 33.0271, L4= 33.4587, L5= 33.2884, L6= 33.7094, L7= 15.3025
month = 7
Temperature Values (mean avg.):
L1= 13.8094, L2= 10.7479, L3= 8.22236, L4= 6.47902, L5= 5.5412, L6= 3.96159, L7= 1.23292
Salinity Values (mean avg.):
L1= 30.7863, L2= 33.2537, L3= 33.2177, L4= 33.1016, L5= 33.3766, L6= 33.4571, L7= 17.6366
month = 8
Temperature Values (mean avg.):
L1= 14.1374, L2= 10.6184, L3= 7.97364, L4= 6.3522, L5= 5.36583, L6= 3.63349, L7= 1.34836
Salinity Values (mean avg.):
L1= 32.1701, L2= 33.9175, L3= 33.6309, L4= 33.5921, L5= 33.5165, L6= 33.7212, L7= 19.7673
month = 9
Temperature Values (mean avg.):
L1= 12.9352, L2= 10.4553, L3= 7.8871, L4= 6.55954, L5= 5.76661, L6= 3.72202, L7= 1.15517
Salinity Values (mean avg.):
L1= 30.5745, L2= 33.3848, L3= 33.3058, L4= 33.5662, L5= 33.9286, L6= 33.016, L7= 14.4325
month = 10
Temperature Values (mean avg.):
L1= 13.3937, L2= 10.8998, L3= 8.08434, L4= 6.41589, L5= 5.40362, L6= 3.71293, L7= 1.1296
Salinity Values (mean avg.):
L1= 29.5143, L2= 33.5229, L3= 33.2096, L4= 32.9099, L5= 33.4544, L6= 32.8567, L7= 14.4878
month = 11
Temperature Values (mean avg.):
L1= 14.2476, L2= 10.4884, L3= 7.71465, L4= 6.22846, L5= 5.15675, L6= 3.53236, L7= 1.07716
Salinity Values (mean avg.):
L1= 28.9627, L2= 33.3538, L3= 32.0359, L4= 33.5587, L5= 32.7503, L6= 33.0735, L7= 12.9157
month = 12
Temperature Values (mean avg.):
L1= 13.6677, L2= 10.4135, L3= 8.01104, L4= 6.5214, L5= 5.34149, L6= 3.53923, L7= 1.05744
Salinity Values (mean avg.):
L1= 30.1674, L2= 34.5667, L3= 33.8299, L4= 33.3359, L5= 33.5153, L6= 34.1303, L7= 16.0656
Increases:
L1= 0.737358, L2= 0.331592, L3= 0.291562, L4= 0.14903, L5= 0.190034, L6= 0.160397, L7= 0.064557
Decreases:
L1= 0.95996, L2= 0.199524, L3= 0.236815, L4= 0.161266, L5= 0.261878, L6= 0.178233, L7= 0.0794003
Net Layer Temperature Change (all depths): -0.152546
Increases:
L1= 0.827567, L2= 0.70396, L3= 0.8028, L4= 0.7134, L5= 0.538936, L6= 0.80743, L7= 2.05408
Decreases:
L1= 0.94284, L2= 0.346775, L3= 0.476758, L4= 0.36615, L5= 0.531263, L6= 0.315675, L7= 3.09456
Net Layer Salinity Change (all depths): 0.374149
IV. Another Example
The software prints a report, a compilation of all layers that the software module processed as follows
(by month, year, day of year)
Change @ Layer 0
By day-of-year:
Temperature: -0.249233
Salinity: 0.0357515
By Month:
Temperature: 0.148802
Salinity: -1.93054
By Year:
Temperature: 0.730141
Salinity: -9.30913
Change @ Layer 1
By day-of-year:
Temperature: -0.20873
Salinity: 0.352097
By Month:
Temperature: -0.288768
Salinity: -1.05714
By Year:
Temperature: -1.02197
Salinity: 6.39866
Change @ Layer 2
By day-of-year:
Temperature: 0.226395
Salinity: 0.321025
By Month:
Temperature: 0.668749
Salinity: -2.1037
By Year:
Temperature: 0.0147982
Salinity: 2.07279
Change @ Layer 3
By day-of-year:
Temperature: 0.0701951
Salinity: -0.0988995
By Month:
Temperature: 0.161305
Salinity: -0.351641
By Year:
Temperature: 0.292753
Salinity: -1.16898
Change @ Layer 4
By day-of-year:
Temperature: -0.0639118
Salinity: -0.272323
By Month:
Temperature: 0.304104
Salinity: 0.250932
By Year:
Temperature: 0.974211
Salinity: 1.24173
Change @ Layer 5
By day-of-year:
Temperature: 0.0231685
Salinity: 0.234071
By Month:
Temperature: -0.112422
Salinity: 0.516272
By Year:
Temperature: -0.227686
Salinity: -0.159992
Change @ Layer 6
By day-of-year:
Temperature: -0.0387131
Salinity: -0.19058
By Month:
Temperature: -0.340361
Salinity: -0.136017
By Year:
Temperature: -1.66551
Salinity: -1.95515
Change @ Layer 7
By day-of-year:
Temperature: -0.00697605
Salinity: -0.00730471
By Month:
Temperature: -0.330484
Salinity: -1.50395
By Year:
Temperature: -0.828885
Salinity: -2.06076
Change @ Layer 8
By day-of-year:
Temperature: -0.0388297
Salinity: 0.124951
By Month:
Temperature: -0.152546
Salinity: 0.374149
By Year:
Temperature: 0.968501
Salinity: 2.0629
Change @ Layer 9
By day-of-year:
Temperature: -0.0146486
Salinity: -0.0120359
By Month:
Temperature: -0.124228
Salinity: 0.656732
By Year:
Temperature: -0.0776117
Salinity: -3.34536
Change @ Layer 10
By day-of-year:
Temperature: -0.0446372
Salinity: -0.518755
By Month:
Temperature: 0.329829
Salinity: 0.311527
By Year:
Temperature: 1.10711
Salinity: 1.45228
Change @ Layer 11
By day-of-year:
Temperature: 0.0436973
Salinity: -0.278299
By Month:
Temperature: -0.0952014
Salinity: -0.267137
By Year:
Temperature: -0.692185
Salinity: -1.3157
Change @ Layer 12
By day-of-year:
Temperature: 0.0239367
Salinity: 0.174405
By Month:
Temperature: -0.0159302
Salinity: -0.292348
By Year:
Temperature: -1.50679
Salinity: -0.784702
Change @ Layer 13
By day-of-year:
Temperature: 0.0368379
Salinity: 0.0226267
By Month:
Temperature: -0.103631
Salinity: -1.05413
By Year:
Temperature: 0.855217
Salinity: -2.88072
Change @ Layer 14
By day-of-year:
Temperature: 0.021951
Salinity: 0.132577
By Month:
Temperature: 0.0391302
Salinity: -0.0457825
By Year:
Temperature: 0.785626
Salinity: 0.421682
Change @ Layer 15
By day-of-year:
Temperature: -0.0331067
Salinity: -0.413596
By Month:
Temperature: -0.249408
Salinity: -1.68247
By Year:
Temperature: -0.262004
Salinity: 2.63629
Change @ Layer 16
By day-of-year:
Temperature: -0.448942
Salinity: -0.535457
By Month:
Temperature: 0.299387
Salinity: -0.288502
By Year:
Temperature: 0.627145
Salinity: -0.452906
Change @ Layer 17
By day-of-year:
Temperature: 0
Salinity: 0
By Month:
Temperature: 0
Salinity: 0
By Year:
Temperature: 0
Salinity: 0
By-DOY Temperature Change: -0.701547
By-DOY Salinity Change: -0.929748
By-Month Temperature Change: 0.138326
By-Month Salinity Change: -8.60373
By-Year Temperature Change: 0.0728571
By-Year Salinity Change: -7.14707
Temperature Change: -0.163455
Salinity Change: -5.56018
V. Comments
As you can see, the thermal expansion hypothesis is in trouble.
Considering those ~0.97 billion WOD records (about 5% was rejected by the modules), using the CTD and PFL datasets, we find that all layers at all depths
The degree of salinity
All of which does not add up to "thermal expansion is the major cause of sea level rise in the 20th and 21st centuries" (Humble Oil-Qaeda).
VI. More Work To Be Done
I have a suspicion that the thermal expansion "rumor" was started by scientists who are a bit too close to the oil industry.
As of yet I have no documentation sequestered from the vast collection of documents leading to my suspicion (Smoke & Fumes).
VII. Conclusion
There is a lot of work still to be done.
If you know of any leads, share your comments so as to help others who are with us.
The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.
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