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| Fig. 1 Taiwan Typhoon Perspectives |
The warming commentariat, politicians, and ill-informed scientists make incorrect statements all the time.
It is the
Today then, I can catch up on pointing out some more World Ocean Database (WOD) information as I expose incorrect assumptions and "batshit crazy" statements of the uninformed (e.g. "I think the Earth is in a cooling trend" - House GOP leader).
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| Fig. 2 Ocean water temperatures |
At about 02:15 in this video (Climate Change @ White House), the spokesperson, Fran Ulmer, mentions some 2 dozen villages in Alaska having to be moved due to erosion a la sea level rise.
That is correct as to beach erosion taking place following the loss of ice shelves along the Arctic coast, and the loss of the erosion protection those ice shelves once provided against wind and waves (but, is not correct to the degree that it is said to be based on sea level rise around Alaska, because that is a myth).
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| Fig. 3 Sea level change in the area of Taiwan |
For one thing, this is because of the melting ice sheet in Greenland.
But, it is also because of the melting land-based glaciers in Alaska ("if glaciers melt in Alaska, sea level around Alaska will drop" - Dr. Mitrovica, Harvard Professor (video below); Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization - 5, Proof of Concept - 3).
So, "what does that have to do with Taiwan typhoons?" (Fig. 1) you may be wondering.
For one thing, not only is there a lot of misinformation about ocean temperatures, especially as it relates to sea level rise and fall, but there are other misconceptions (Fig. 2, Fig. 3).
For example, regular readers know that I have been pointing out the lack of evidence for the thermal expansion hypothesis or myth (On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).
Using the WOD database would eradicate a lot of the misconceptions, such as the notion that hot ocean water caused or exacerbated the three typhoons that hit Taiwan in as many weeks.
Again, Fig. 2 shows that, all things considered, the temperature of the ocean is not the cause of thermal expansion induced sea level change of the magnitude that causes the sea level rise depicted in Fig. 3.
The WOD and PSMSL databases used to make those graphs tell the true story.
Below are analytical results from a module that counts the temperature change ups and downs (which have been recorded in the WOD database) in the listed WOD Zones around Taiwan.
First, the module determines the magnitude of those ups and those downs in each zone:
WOD Zone: 1212 (all figures in deg. C)
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 103 upward & 109 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: 0.22075
- 0-200m = -2.0859
- 200-400m = 0.2265
- 400-600m = 0.7284
- 600-800m = 0.05648
- 800-1000m = -0.13203
- 1000-3000m = 0.45227
- >3000m = 0.97503
Years involved: 1961 -> 2016 (55 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (0.22075 ÷ 55): 0.00401364
WOD Zone: 1213 (all figures in deg. C)
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 162 upward & 151 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: 2.27133
- 0-200m = -2.7191
- 200-400m = 0.2205
- 400-600m = 2.356
- 600-800m = 0.66678
- 800-1000m = 0.16356
- 1000-3000m = 1.66612
- >3000m = -0.08253
Years involved: 1961 -> 2016 (55 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (2.27133 ÷ 55): 0.0412969
WOD Zone: 1214 (all figures in deg. C)
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 120 upward & 106 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: 2.39262
- 0-200m = -1.5794
- 200-400m = 0.6386
- 400-600m = 1.7782
- 600-800m = 0.60483
- 800-1000m = -0.616
- 1000-3000m = 1.52995
- >3000m = 0.03644
Years involved: 1976 -> 2016 (40 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (2.39262 ÷ 40): 0.0598155
WOD Zone: 1112 (all figures in deg. C)
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 130 upward & 129 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: 16.378
- 0-200m = 0.8209
- 200-400m = 2.62725
- 400-600m = 3.80928
- 600-800m = 4.78892
- 800-1000m = 4.29675
- 1000-3000m = 0.63665
- >3000m = -0.60177
Years involved: 1976 -> 2016 (40 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (16.378 ÷ 40): 0.40945
WOD Zone: 1113 (all figures in deg. C)
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 160 upward & 165 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: 6.7919
- 0-200m = -0.8171
- 200-400m = 6.5001
- 400-600m = 3.08613
- 600-800m = -0.99731
- 800-1000m = -1.01814
- 1000-3000m = -0.062
- >3000m = 0.10022
Years involved: 1976 -> 2016 (40 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (6.7919 ÷ 40): 0.169798
WOD Zone: 1114 (all figures in deg. C)
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 140 upward & 155 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: 4.85996
- 0-200m = 1.1934
- 200-400m = 3.8575
- 400-600m = 0.89494
- 600-800m = -0.25584
- 800-1000m = -0.35074
- 1000-3000m = -0.57875
- >3000m = 0.09945
Years involved: 1976 -> 2016 (40 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (4.85996 ÷ 40): 0.121499
Next, the module also determines the combined mean average magnitude of all those temperature ups and those downs into one result:
Combined averages for 6 total WOD Zones
(temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning change trends, the mean average
was 135 upward & 135 downward trends.
Average changes per depth level were:
Average change, all 7 levels: 5.48576
- 0-200m = -0.864533
- 200-400m = 2.34507
- 400-600m = 2.10883
- 600-800m = 0.810643
- 800-1000m = 0.390567
- 1000-3000m = 0.607373
- >3000m = 0.0878067
Years involved: 1961 -> 2016 (55 yrs)
Average annual combined change:
- (5.48576 ÷ 55): 0.099741 C per year
It is obvious that there is no valid reason to hypothesize that the warming in these zones, which amounts to 0.099741 C per year, is the cause of sea level rise or sea level fall around Taiwan.
Likewise, it is not a valid reason to suppose the ocean water temperature rise is impacting typhoons this year any more than it has in the past decade (Fig. 2).
The warming commentariat is not warming up to this reality:
very-hot surface waters ... it’s likely that the waters at depth were also much warmer than usual ... Record-Hot Ocean ... the intensity of Typhoon Megi ... is [due to] increased ocean heat(... Record-Hot Ocean Waters ..., emphasis added). The WOD data do not bear this out, nor do they bear out thermal expansion as the MAJOR cause of sea level rise.
Globally, by far the greatest percentage of increase in air temperatures is taking place in the Arctic (Climate Change @ White House), and to a lesser extent in the Antarctic.
As Dr. Eric Rignot is fond of saying, yes, these (polar) waters are warming but I would not take a bath in 3 degrees C water (think of the folks who, each year, jump into cold ice water with only swimming trunks on ... and one of them saying this water has warmed up 1 degree C ... whoopie it is warming).
Nevertheless, that ice cold water is "warm" enough to melt the ice sheets and ice shelves (3 - 4 deg. C and above).
Add to that the fact that the air in the Arctic is warming up enough to melt the ice sheets and glaciers there (but you still need a coat to keep warm there).
The ice sheet on Greenland has been melting since circa 1775 (Questionable "Scientific" Papers - 3).
Which shows that the global climate system (The Damaged Global Climate System, 2, 3, 4, 5) is sensitive enough to be damaged without the Earth having to turn into Venus (Environmental records shattered as climate change 'plays out before us').
It took only "25 years of industrial revolution" to begin to damage the global climate system long ago (before the U.S. Constitution was ratified in 1778).
"Cold" sea water rise is just as deadly as "warm" sea water rise (Why The Military Can't Defend Against The Invasion, Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization, 2, 3, 4, 5).
Mixing disciplines is an antidote to myopia ... (BTW, NASA agrees with Mitrovica see quotes here).
Dredd: great job dispelling the myths or pseudo-science explanations for the typhoons. Can you point to something that DOES cause or at least somewhat accounts for not only the increased number of these storms, but also their growing ferocity?
ReplyDeleteThanks for being here and helping educate humanity.
Tom
Tom,
DeleteIMO ...
Air temperature increases (the atmosphere's ability is weak when compared to the ability of the ocean to handle heat) and disparities between polar and equatorial regions (poles are warming faster).
Chemical imbalance (a la GHG) interferes with the global climate system by damaging crucial natural cycles (e.g. nitrogen, water, carbon, oxygen, etc.).
The heat cycles (various aspects of thermodynamics) are also impacted.
The ocean being warmer adds to it, but is not the primary factor.
Any system requires parts, subsystems, and processes that are working according to the nature of the system.
The damaged and/or failing parts increase systemic damage by feedback until the equilibrium becomes dangerously out of whack (a la a spinning top or gyro out of sync).
The global climate system is more sensitive than we tend to remember.
Tom,
DeleteSorry I did not preface my comment with ... To answer your question which is "Can you point to something that DOES cause or at least somewhat accounts for not only the increased number of these storms, but also their growing ferocity?"
"Exxon Mobil Sued Over Climate Change Cover-Up" link
ReplyDeleteSo it's a combination of ocean heat, atmospheric chemical imbalance, and feedbacks to these damaged systems?
ReplyDeleteTom
Tom,
DeleteThere is a difference between what "gives birth" and what "feeds and sustains" following that birth.
Cyclones are engendered into embryos by winds and lowering pressures.
Once conceived or born they feed on warmth, moisture from the oceans, and more winds.
They will tend to die without the nourishment warm waters, but they will not even come into existence, not be born, if they do not have parenting winds with low pressures to create them in the first place.
Note the cyclones in the Arctic took place even though there was no warm waters there ... just wind is all that was needed in that case.
The Mediterranean, Persian Gulf, and other areas in their vicinity are very warm, yet they do not give birth to tropical cyclones that grow into hurricanes or typhoons.
The current Atlantic hurricane (Matthew) was born, in typical fashion, of the winds flowing off the dry Sahara in N. Africa (an area where spin is generated by conflicting wind currents.
Then once born as a spinning entity with a lowering pressure area, over warm water, it then feeds until it grows from an embryo into a tot, then a monster eventually.
They are creatures born of wind dynamics, then fed and raised by heat and moisture once born.
As the normal winds of the global climate system are perverted by too much heat damage to the system, caused by too much GHG, new birthing and feeding areas can arise or become predominant.
Note the record number of cat 4 hurricanes that headed for Hawaii this year.
They were born of winds near the coast of Mexico / Central America (while in the same year a smaller number (zero cat 4's so far) were born in the usual African wind birthing areas).
It takes a lot of screwing around to birth "Typhoon Triplets For Taiwan".
ReplyDeleteOil-Qaeda is horny.