The Warming Science Commentariat - 9

Fig. 1 Lipstick on a mouthpiece

I. Once Upon A Report

It is time to mention where, when, and by whom the warming science commentariat were originally led astray.

Yes, led astray by the myth that "thermal expansion is the MAJOR cause of sea level rise."

That source is the 2007 IPCC report:

"At the global level, simple models representing the expansion of sea water and melting/sliding of land-based ice sheets and glaciers were used in the TAR to obtain estimates of globally averaged mean sea-level rise ... Thermal expansion contributes about 60 to 70% to these estimates. Projections are ... due mainly to improved estimates of ocean heat uptake but also to smaller assessed uncertainties in glacier and ice cap changes. However, uncertainties in carbon cycle feedbacks, ice flow processes, and recent observed ice discharge rates are not accounted for due to insufficient understanding (Meehl et al., 2007). (Meehl et al., 2007)."

(IPCC 2007, p. 153, PDF, emphasis added).  The startling thing about this, to me, is that they simply ignored the obvious source of most sea level rise, because "we don't know much, or not enough", which is true ... but also beside the point:

What is included in these sea level numbers?

Let us have a look at how these numbers were derived. They are made up of four components: thermal expansion, glaciers and ice caps (those exclude the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets), ice sheet surface mass balance, and ice sheet dynamical imbalance ... The contribution from glaciers and ice caps (not including Greenland and Antarctica), on the other hand, is computed from a simple empirical formula linking global mean temperature to mass loss (equivalent to a rate of sea level rise), based on observed data from 1963 to 2003. This takes into account that glaciers slowly disappear and therefore stop contributing – the total amount of glacier ice left is actually only enough to raise sea level by 15-37 cm.
...
– note the IPCC still assumes that Antarctica gains more mass in this manner than Greenland loses.

(Real Climate, emphasis added). Possibly due to the fact that their sea level rise projections have been 100% wrong all along, they have changed their opinion in subsequent IPCC reports (good!).

Yes, now they even include the largest sources (Greenland & Antarctica) of sea level rise, and fall (what will they think of next?) in their models.

Fig. 2 All Along The Watchtower

But, since the warming commentariat is more obstinate, more stuck in the mud, and probably funded by Oil-Qaeda, the thermal expansion myth is still being perpetuated.

I mean this very year and this very month:

"Sea-level rise in the last few decades has largely resulted from ocean warming and thermal expansion (Church et al., 2013)" - (Sec. 3.6.2.5, p. 142, p. 144 PDF).

"Recent sea-level rise has most likely been the fastest in at least 2800 years (Kopp et al., 2016). This has occurred primarily as a result of thermal expansion of ocean waters ..." - (Sec. 3.8.9, p. 190, p. 192 PDF).

"Ocean warming and consequent thermal expansion accounts for 30% to 55% of the 21st Century global mean sea-level rise, and will continue to contribute to predicted rises in sea level (IPCC, 2013)" - (Sec. 3.14.4.2, p. 294, p. 296 PDF).

(Ocean Warming, PDF). The warming commentariat are long on lofty, empty words in terms of the TEM eh?

The reason the warming commentariat are that way is their trust in personalities rather than trust in a personal viewing and understanding of the evidence (The Pillars of Knowledge: Faith and Trust?).

II. Arithmetic Is Scientific

In yesterday's post I elaborated on the World Ocean Database (WOD) zones bordering the equator (On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction - 7).

It included the graph reposted today as Fig. 2.

The figures for each zone (62 had data available) involved in making that graph are as follows:

WOD Zone: 1004 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 71 upward & 75 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 1.4143
200-400m = 0.2103
400-600m = -0.0522
600-800m = -0.26403
800-1000m = 0.04286
1000-3000m = -3.92431
>3000m = 0.00598

Net change for 7 levels: -2.5671
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1975 -> 2016 (41 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-2.5671 ÷ 41): -0.0626122

---

WOD Zone: 1005 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 108 upward & 87 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 1.7139
200-400m = 0.0597
400-600m = 0.9765
600-800m = 0.51363
800-1000m = 0.95806
1000-3000m = -2.50437
>3000m = -6.34995

Net change for 7 levels: -4.63253
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1972 -> 2016 (44 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-4.63253 ÷ 44): -0.105285

---

WOD Zone: 1006 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 107 upward & 95 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 1.6577
200-400m = 1.0392
400-600m = 0.5353
600-800m = 0.21722
800-1000m = -0.06212
1000-3000m = 0.97014
>3000m = -0.04166

Net change for 7 levels: 4.31578
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1974 -> 2016 (42 yrs)

Average change per year:
(4.31578 ÷ 42): 0.102757

---

WOD Zone: 1007 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 79 upward & 89 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 2.223
200-400m = 0.5675
400-600m = -0.6004
600-800m = -0.55882
800-1000m = -3.32722
1000-3000m = -2.5946
>3000m = -0.10236

Net change for 7 levels: -4.3929
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1972 -> 2016 (44 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-4.3929 ÷ 44): -0.0998386

---

WOD Zone: 1008 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 103 upward & 101 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = -0.2061
200-400m = 0.1836
400-600m = 0.2283
600-800m = 0.13232
800-1000m = -0.24371
1000-3000m = 0.21135
>3000m = 0.00859

Net change for 7 levels: 0.31435
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1975 -> 2016 (41 yrs)

Average change per year:
(0.31435 ÷ 41): 0.00766707

---

WOD Zone: 1009 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 83 upward & 74 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = -9.1207
200-400m = 0.0216
400-600m = -0.11597
600-800m = -0.22991
800-1000m = 0.08181
1000-3000m = 0.22397

Net change for 6 levels: -9.1392
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1961 -> 2016 (55 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-9.1392 ÷ 55): -0.166167

---

WOD Zone: 1010 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 36 upward & 8 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = -3.2423
200-400m = 0.4914
400-600m = -0.50189

Net change for 3 levels: -3.25279
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1961 -> 2013 (52 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-3.25279 ÷ 52): -0.0625537

---

WOD Zone: 1011 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 50 upward & 47 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = -6.3618
200-400m = 0.1379
400-600m = 0.1418
600-800m = 0.34823
800-1000m = 0.25432
1000-3000m = -0.66942

Net change for 6 levels: -6.14897
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1961 -> 2016 (55 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-6.14897 ÷ 55): -0.111799

---

WOD Zone: 1012 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 110 upward & 96 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = -1.4517
200-400m = -1.5007
400-600m = -0.43505
600-800m = 0.49224
800-1000m = 0.55925
1000-3000m = -0.23243
>3000m = 0.99571

Net change for 7 levels: -1.57268
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1973 -> 2016 (43 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-1.57268 ÷ 43): -0.036574

---

WOD Zone: 1013 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 106 upward & 119 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = -0.228
200-400m = -0.03329
400-600m = -0.25454
600-800m = 0.23717
800-1000m = 0.09834
1000-3000m = -0.42648
>3000m = 0.00183

Net change for 7 levels: -0.60497
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1962 -> 2016 (54 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-0.60497 ÷ 54): -0.0112031

---

WOD Zone: 1014 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 106 upward & 116 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 0.2608
200-400m = -0.25613
400-600m = -0.72909
600-800m = -0.02254
800-1000m = -0.00885
1000-3000m = 1.35315
>3000m = -0.04641

Net change for 7 levels: 0.55093
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1962 -> 2016 (54 yrs)

Average change per year:
(0.55093 ÷ 54): 0.0102024

---

WOD Zone: 1015 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 100 upward & 92 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = -3.5596
200-400m = -1.3042
400-600m = -0.18538
600-800m = 0.17884
800-1000m = 0.10326
1000-3000m = 1.78848
>3000m = 0.06692

Net change for 7 levels: -2.91168
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1985 -> 2016 (31 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-2.91168 ÷ 31): -0.0939252

---

WOD Zone: 1016 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 107 upward & 108 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = -0.0818
200-400m = -0.198
400-600m = 0.00926
600-800m = 0.15429
800-1000m = 0.08278
1000-3000m = 0.62965
>3000m = 0.00022

Net change for 7 levels: 0.5964
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1984 -> 2016 (32 yrs)

Average change per year:
(0.5964 ÷ 32): 0.0186375

---

WOD Zone: 1017 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 83 upward & 82 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = -0.6158
200-400m = -0.847
400-600m = 0.41964
600-800m = 0.38479
800-1000m = -0.10011
1000-3000m = 2.34754
>3000m = -0.25229

Net change for 7 levels: 1.33677
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1973 -> 2016 (43 yrs)

Average change per year:
(1.33677 ÷ 43): 0.0310877

---

WOD Zone: 3001 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 34 upward & 32 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = -0.7344
200-400m = 0.1496
400-600m = 0.17046
600-800m = 0.36393
800-1000m = 0.07575
1000-3000m = 0.03548

Net change for 6 levels: 0.06082
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1975 -> 2016 (41 yrs)

Average change per year:
(0.06082 ÷ 41): 0.00148341

---

WOD Zone: 3003 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 24 upward & 26 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 1.8758
200-400m = -0.3311
400-600m = 0.47033
600-800m = 0.13223
800-1000m = -0.37467
1000-3000m = 1.64637

Net change for 6 levels: 3.41896
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1975 -> 2015 (40 yrs)

Average change per year:
(3.41896 ÷ 40): 0.085474

---

WOD Zone: 3004 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 76 upward & 72 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = -0.1918
200-400m = -2.3124
400-600m = -1.36642
600-800m = -5.01819
800-1000m = -0.32792
1000-3000m = -1.79758
>3000m = -10.3232

Net change for 7 levels: -21.3375
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1972 -> 2016 (44 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-21.3375 ÷ 44): -0.484943

---

WOD Zone: 3005 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 76 upward & 91 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = -0.2046
200-400m = -0.2869
400-600m = -0.69389
600-800m = 0.14023
800-1000m = 0.60843
1000-3000m = -0.50246
>3000m = -0.01634

Net change for 7 levels: -0.95553
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1972 -> 2016 (44 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-0.95553 ÷ 44): -0.0217166

---

WOD Zone: 3006 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 83 upward & 78 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 4.156
200-400m = 0.7157
400-600m = 1.27966
600-800m = 1.00288
800-1000m = 0.68948
1000-3000m = -3.17533

Net change for 6 levels: 4.66839
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1974 -> 2016 (42 yrs)

Average change per year:
(4.66839 ÷ 42): 0.111152

---

WOD Zone: 3007 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 83 upward & 95 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 0.9084
200-400m = 0.1493
400-600m = -1.02566
600-800m = -1.11289
800-1000m = -1.63294
1000-3000m = -1.56284
>3000m = 27.736

Net change for 7 levels: 23.4594
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1972 -> 2016 (44 yrs)

Average change per year:
(23.4594 ÷ 44): 0.533168

---

WOD Zone: 3008 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 87 upward & 89 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 2.0468
200-400m = -0.0481
400-600m = -0.52895
600-800m = -0.31272
800-1000m = 0.00715
1000-3000m = -1.17623
>3000m = 0.08607

Net change for 7 levels: 0.07402
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1972 -> 2016 (44 yrs)

Average change per year:
(0.07402 ÷ 44): 0.00168227

---

WOD Zone: 3009 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 68 upward & 67 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 1.9297
200-400m = 0.1913
400-600m = 0.10839
600-800m = 0.04614
800-1000m = -0.27688
1000-3000m = -2.19327
>3000m = -0.00181

Net change for 7 levels: -0.19643
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1978 -> 2016 (38 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-0.19643 ÷ 38): -0.00516921

---

WOD Zone: 3010 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 82 upward & 59 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 4.4497
200-400m = 1.64561
400-600m = 1.39096
600-800m = 1.23159
800-1000m = 1.10312
1000-3000m = -2.21995
>3000m = -0.00914

Net change for 7 levels: 7.59189
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1987 -> 2016 (29 yrs)

Average change per year:
(7.59189 ÷ 29): 0.261789

---

WOD Zone: 3011 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 58 upward & 53 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 4.0822
200-400m = 0.9204
400-600m = -0.66781
600-800m = -0.67066
800-1000m = -0.65355
1000-3000m = 1.38186

Net change for 6 levels: 4.39244
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1989 -> 2016 (27 yrs)

Average change per year:
(4.39244 ÷ 27): 0.162683

---

WOD Zone: 3012 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 21 upward & 27 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = -3.1445
200-400m = -1.2323
400-600m = -0.40968
600-800m = -1.60129
800-1000m = -2.8101
1000-3000m = -0.38887
>3000m = -0.20604

Net change for 7 levels: -9.79278
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1973 -> 2012 (39 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-9.79278 ÷ 39): -0.251097

---

WOD Zone: 3013 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 61 upward & 77 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 0.0503
200-400m = 0.1122
400-600m = -0.30619
600-800m = -0.52567
800-1000m = -0.52584
1000-3000m = -1.66299

Net change for 6 levels: -2.85819
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1973 -> 2016 (43 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-2.85819 ÷ 43): -0.0664695

---

WOD Zone: 3014 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 90 upward & 100 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = -0.7739
200-400m = -0.6418
400-600m = 0.16227
600-800m = 0.2042
800-1000m = -0.10517
1000-3000m = -1.20565
>3000m = -0.20704

Net change for 7 levels: -2.56709
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1985 -> 2016 (31 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-2.56709 ÷ 31): -0.0828094

---

WOD Zone: 3015 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 95 upward & 109 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 3.2035
200-400m = -1.2911
400-600m = -0.19761
600-800m = 0.09281
800-1000m = 0.08428
1000-3000m = -0.23267
>3000m = -0.45027

Net change for 7 levels: 1.20894
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1962 -> 2016 (54 yrs)

Average change per year:
(1.20894 ÷ 54): 0.0223878

---

WOD Zone: 3016 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 120 upward & 107 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 4.1869
200-400m = -0.5377
400-600m = -0.61333
600-800m = -0.00233
800-1000m = 0.03943
1000-3000m = -1.79116
>3000m = -0.07439

Net change for 7 levels: 1.20742
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1962 -> 2016 (54 yrs)

Average change per year:
(1.20742 ÷ 54): 0.0223596

---

WOD Zone: 3017 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 75 upward & 73 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 3.6516
200-400m = 0.7709
400-600m = 1.04583
600-800m = 0.22369
800-1000m = -0.2803
1000-3000m = -4.44774
>3000m = 0.01774

Net change for 7 levels: 0.98172
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1962 -> 2016 (54 yrs)

Average change per year:
(0.98172 ÷ 54): 0.01818

---

WOD Zone: 5001 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 111 upward & 93 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 0.6241
200-400m = 0.7894
400-600m = 0.38176
600-800m = 0.1418
800-1000m = 0.1598
1000-3000m = 0.72364
>3000m = -0.15505

Net change for 7 levels: 2.66545
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1973 -> 2016 (43 yrs)

Average change per year:
(2.66545 ÷ 43): 0.0619872

---

WOD Zone: 5002 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 115 upward & 100 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = -0.9607
200-400m = -0.1151
400-600m = 0.08974
600-800m = -0.00895
800-1000m = 0.14117
1000-3000m = 0.81675
>3000m = 1.36656

Net change for 7 levels: 1.32947
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1972 -> 2016 (44 yrs)

Average change per year:
(1.32947 ÷ 44): 0.0302152

---

WOD Zone: 5003 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 115 upward & 107 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 0.639
200-400m = 0.4872
400-600m = 0.31427
600-800m = 0.26973
800-1000m = -0.20956
1000-3000m = 0.61775
>3000m = 0.94594

Net change for 7 levels: 3.06433
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1972 -> 2016 (44 yrs)

Average change per year:
(3.06433 ÷ 44): 0.0696439

---

WOD Zone: 5004 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 69 upward & 59 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = -0.1275
200-400m = 0.3629
400-600m = 0.683
600-800m = 0.27917
800-1000m = 0.43001
1000-3000m = 1.19993

Net change for 6 levels: 2.82751
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1979 -> 2016 (37 yrs)

Average change per year:
(2.82751 ÷ 37): 0.0764192

---

WOD Zone: 5007 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 9 upward & 9 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 1.7392
200-400m = 0.3213
400-600m = -0.4371
600-800m = -0.18327
800-1000m = -0.34153

Net change for 5 levels: 1.0986
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1967 -> 2015 (48 yrs)

Average change per year:
(1.0986 ÷ 48): 0.0228875

---

WOD Zone: 5008 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 91 upward & 82 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 2.5642
200-400m = -0.2027
400-600m = 0.11109
600-800m = -0.20493
800-1000m = 0.1491
1000-3000m = -1.23932
>3000m = -0.18431

Net change for 7 levels: 0.99313
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1967 -> 2016 (49 yrs)

Average change per year:
(0.99313 ÷ 49): 0.020268

---

WOD Zone: 5009 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 110 upward & 105 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 2.7503
200-400m = 0.2832
400-600m = 0.09948
600-800m = 0.26748
800-1000m = 0.01997
1000-3000m = -1.37552
>3000m = -0.02718

Net change for 7 levels: 2.01773
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1967 -> 2016 (49 yrs)

Average change per year:
(2.01773 ÷ 49): 0.0411782

---

WOD Zone: 5010 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 147 upward & 126 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 3.4195
200-400m = 0.2972
400-600m = 0.09502
600-800m = 0.08109
800-1000m = 0.003
1000-3000m = -1.44701
>3000m = -0.07952

Net change for 7 levels: 2.36928
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1967 -> 2016 (49 yrs)

Average change per year:
(2.36928 ÷ 49): 0.0483527

---

WOD Zone: 5011 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 136 upward & 117 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 3.2117
200-400m = 0.3418
400-600m = -0.05293
600-800m = 0.13481
800-1000m = 0.08598
1000-3000m = -2.40063
>3000m = -0.01169

Net change for 7 levels: 1.30904
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1967 -> 2016 (49 yrs)

Average change per year:
(1.30904 ÷ 49): 0.0267151

---

WOD Zone: 5012 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 116 upward & 102 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 3.1927
200-400m = 0.3159
400-600m = -0.28933
600-800m = -0.00158
800-1000m = 0.11372
1000-3000m = 0.7098
>3000m = 0.04486

Net change for 7 levels: 4.08607
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1967 -> 2016 (49 yrs)

Average change per year:
(4.08607 ÷ 49): 0.0833892

---

WOD Zone: 5013 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 114 upward & 108 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 5.3515
200-400m = 0.9961
400-600m = -0.46437
600-800m = 0.0606
800-1000m = 0.13771
1000-3000m = 0.50327
>3000m = 0.01129

Net change for 7 levels: 6.5961
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1974 -> 2016 (42 yrs)

Average change per year:
(6.5961 ÷ 42): 0.15705

---

WOD Zone: 5014 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 112 upward & 108 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = -0.9565
200-400m = -0.1104
400-600m = -0.00097
600-800m = 0.20078
800-1000m = 0.0626
1000-3000m = 0.41529
>3000m = 0.18373

Net change for 7 levels: -0.20547
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1977 -> 2016 (39 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-0.20547 ÷ 39): -0.00526846

---

WOD Zone: 5015 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 107 upward & 101 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 3.6852
200-400m = 1.5058
400-600m = -0.09759
600-800m = -0.29695
800-1000m = -0.0495
1000-3000m = 1.28798

Net change for 6 levels: 6.03494
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1967 -> 2016 (49 yrs)

Average change per year:
(6.03494 ÷ 49): 0.123162

---

WOD Zone: 5016 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 103 upward & 103 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = -0.1449
200-400m = -4.1108
400-600m = 0.01626
600-800m = 0.33656
800-1000m = 0.20033
1000-3000m = -0.84919
>3000m = 0.00337

Net change for 7 levels: -4.54837
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1974 -> 2016 (42 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-4.54837 ÷ 42): -0.108295

---

WOD Zone: 5017 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 101 upward & 90 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 0.3577
200-400m = -1.9901
400-600m = 0.59617
600-800m = 0.10148
800-1000m = -0.28699
1000-3000m = 0.62873
>3000m = 0.15733

Net change for 7 levels: -0.43568
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1973 -> 2016 (43 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-0.43568 ÷ 43): -0.0101321

---

WOD Zone: 7001 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 106 upward & 118 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 0.6256
200-400m = -0.7786
400-600m = -0.11067
600-800m = -1.42224
800-1000m = -1.05199
1000-3000m = 0.19712
>3000m = 0.23383

Net change for 7 levels: -2.30695
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1973 -> 2016 (43 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-2.30695 ÷ 43): -0.05365

---

WOD Zone: 7002 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 108 upward & 121 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 0.5707
200-400m = -0.383
400-600m = -1.15586
600-800m = -1.41141
800-1000m = -0.85723
1000-3000m = -0.03368
>3000m = 11.4518

Net change for 7 levels: 8.18133
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1972 -> 2016 (44 yrs)

Average change per year:
(8.18133 ÷ 44): 0.185939

---

WOD Zone: 7003 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 111 upward & 129 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = -1.0335
200-400m = -0.2746
400-600m = 0.7848
600-800m = 0.36046
800-1000m = -0.12095
1000-3000m = 2.90197
>3000m = 0.08596

Net change for 7 levels: 2.70414
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1972 -> 2016 (44 yrs)

Average change per year:
(2.70414 ÷ 44): 0.0614577

---

WOD Zone: 7004 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 125 upward & 116 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 2.6819
200-400m = 0.07207
400-600m = -0.26965
600-800m = -0.42871
800-1000m = -0.13705
1000-3000m = 0.10229
>3000m = 0.17925

Net change for 7 levels: 2.2001
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1972 -> 2016 (44 yrs)

Average change per year:
(2.2001 ÷ 44): 0.0500023

---

WOD Zone: 7005 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 97 upward & 95 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 2.1753
200-400m = 0.49463
400-600m = 0.3979
600-800m = 0.83844
800-1000m = 0.36961
1000-3000m = 0.8989
>3000m = -0.17999

Net change for 7 levels: 4.99479
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1969 -> 2016 (47 yrs)

Average change per year:
(4.99479 ÷ 47): 0.106272

---

WOD Zone: 7006 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 1 upward & 1 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = -1.1801

Net change for 1 levels: -1.1801
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1990 -> 2012 (22 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-1.1801 ÷ 22): -0.0536409

---

WOD Zone: 7007 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 28 upward & 28 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 5.2222
200-400m = 0.6456
400-600m = 0.67859
600-800m = 0.37256
800-1000m = 0.22561
1000-3000m = -0.17324

Net change for 6 levels: 6.97132
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1967 -> 2016 (49 yrs)

Average change per year:
(6.97132 ÷ 49): 0.142272

---

WOD Zone: 7008 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 100 upward & 80 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = -7.5866
200-400m = 0.9982
400-600m = 0.27683
600-800m = 0.3405
800-1000m = -0.12375
1000-3000m = -3.68933
>3000m = 0.03066

Net change for 7 levels: -9.75349
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1961 -> 2016 (55 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-9.75349 ÷ 55): -0.177336

---

WOD Zone: 7009 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 131 upward & 100 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 2.5749
200-400m = 0.4616
400-600m = -0.0118
600-800m = -0.3171
800-1000m = 0.19371
1000-3000m = -3.35416
>3000m = 0.06547

Net change for 7 levels: -0.38738
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1967 -> 2016 (49 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-0.38738 ÷ 49): -0.00790571

---

WOD Zone: 7010 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 127 upward & 133 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 2.5761
200-400m = 0.8363
400-600m = 0.09166
600-800m = 0.06677
800-1000m = 0.15388
1000-3000m = -5.06751
>3000m = 0.02348

Net change for 7 levels: -1.31932
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1967 -> 2016 (49 yrs)

Average change per year:
(-1.31932 ÷ 49): -0.0269249

---

WOD Zone: 7011 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 141 upward & 142 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 2.9387
200-400m = 0.4428
400-600m = -0.20728
600-800m = -0.17932
800-1000m = 0.04998
1000-3000m = 1.20704
>3000m = -0.00122

Net change for 7 levels: 4.2507
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1967 -> 2016 (49 yrs)

Average change per year:
(4.2507 ÷ 49): 0.086749

---

WOD Zone: 7012 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 109 upward & 100 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 4.0243
200-400m = 0.8458
400-600m = -0.08619
600-800m = 0.02485
800-1000m = -0.0835
1000-3000m = 0.37059
>3000m = -0.05425

Net change for 7 levels: 5.0416
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1967 -> 2016 (49 yrs)

Average change per year:
(5.0416 ÷ 49): 0.10289

---

WOD Zone: 7013 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 115 upward & 111 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 6.5809
200-400m = 1.69646
400-600m = 0.30767
600-800m = -0.33491
800-1000m = -0.23798
1000-3000m = 0.77364
>3000m = 0.01023

Net change for 7 levels: 8.79601
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1972 -> 2016 (44 yrs)

Average change per year:
(8.79601 ÷ 44): 0.199909

---

WOD Zone: 7014 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 118 upward & 114 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 7.2323
200-400m = 1.3565
400-600m = 0.24655
600-800m = 0.08732
800-1000m = 0.33133
1000-3000m = -3.17684
>3000m = -0.03758

Net change for 7 levels: 6.03958
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1972 -> 2016 (44 yrs)

Average change per year:
(6.03958 ÷ 44): 0.137263

---

WOD Zone: 7015 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 136 upward & 125 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = 1.1529
200-400m = 0.1344
400-600m = 0.02729
600-800m = -0.11064
800-1000m = 0.11749
1000-3000m = -0.65209
>3000m = 0.02314

Net change for 7 levels: 0.69249
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1967 -> 2016 (49 yrs)

Average change per year:
(0.69249 ÷ 49): 0.0141324

---

WOD Zone: 7016 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 96 upward & 104 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = -0.0642
200-400m = 0.71131
400-600m = 0.22831
600-800m = 0.23916
800-1000m = 0.33967
1000-3000m = -0.67859
>3000m = 0.03782

Net change for 7 levels: 0.81348
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1967 -> 2016 (49 yrs)

Average change per year:
(0.81348 ÷ 49): 0.0166016

---

WOD Zone: 7017 (all figures in deg. C)
=======

Concerning temperature trends, there
were 94 upward & 101 downward trends.

Net changes per level were:

0-200m = -1.2382
200-400m = -0.1709
400-600m = -0.10551
600-800m = -0.79755
800-1000m = -0.27148
1000-3000m = 4.78634
>3000m = 0.01458

Net change for 7 levels: 2.21728
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1973 -> 2016 (43 yrs)

Average change per year:
(2.21728 ÷ 43): 0.0515647

---

Per-zone averages for 62 WOD Zones
(temperatures are in deg. C)
=======

Concerning change trends, the average
was 91 upward & 88 downward trends.

Average changes per depth level were:

0-200m = 0.975682
200-400m = 0.0452542
400-600m = 0.00631903
600-800m = -0.0922035
800-1000m = -0.103676
1000-3000m = -0.453491
>3000m = 0.40285

Average change, all 7 levels: 0.111534
-------
Years involved: 1961 -> 2016 (55 yrs)

Average annual change per zone:
(0.111534 ÷ 55):
0.00202788 C per year

---

That is the way I "trust" scientific papers (by examining the evidence).

III. Updated

As I wrote below yesterday when I posted this  ("Later I will add to this post the mean average of all the zones involved"), I have updated the post.

The final segment in the printout now contains "Per-zone averages for 62 WOD Zones" which is nothing more than the mean averages of all the zones into one segment of figures.

I also corrected a bug ... the "0-200m" column was missing.

I had not used this module for quite a while, and had changed the schema of the SQL table, which threw off the beginning row location (originally it was column 4 but is now column 5).

Anyway, the bottom line is that the ocean subsurface water levels constitute a giant heat sink.

It expands or contracts depending on its temperature when heat is added or removed.

All levels must be taken into consideration when calculating the net result (duh!).

IV. How The Numbers Are Derived

The schema contains 11 columns, seven of which are the temperatures at seven levels (0-200m,  200-400m, 400-600m, 600-800m, 800-1000m, 1000-3000m, and >3000m (greater than 3000m)).

I do a query on the SQL table which returns data by zone, oldest year first.

Then I compare the first row with the second, noting the change in temperature at each level year by year.

A net or mean average is then calculated and printed out.

That is done for each relevant WOD Zone as you can see, then one final compilation is done to derive the mean average of all those zones.

The data knocks out the thermal expansion myth (TEM) that has misinformed us by telling us "thermal expansion is the MAJOR cause of sea level rise for the past century".

V. Conclusion

See, science is not that hard.

Later I will add to this post the mean average of all the zones involved, because I don't want to post so much info in a single post from now on. [DONE]

So, I am finishing up on that code.

The previous post in this series is here.

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