Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 51

Bad Science: "Don't Ask Don't Tell"

This post is about being perplexed at what can be missed by science professionals.

Specifically, it is about an erroneous, peer reviewed paper, published this year in the reputable journal Nature.

Regular readers know that I have criticized the statements made in the paper as quoted by some science writers to wit: "An extreme event of sea-level rise along the Northeast coast of North America in 2009–2010" (A Paper From Hansen et al. Is Now Open For Discussion - 2).

One statement made in the abstract of the paper being discussed in today's post is quite a strong and deliberate one:

Within this 2-year period, the coastal sea level north of New York City jumped by 128 mm. This magnitude of interannual SLR is unprecedented (a 1-in-850 year event) during the entire history of the tide gauge records.

(Nature 2015). Wrong, at least to the degree that my research shows otherwise, as clearly revealed by the tide gauge record extracts contained in the table below.

The following table is a list of PSMSL tide gauge stations (highly reputable) compiled from annual data downloaded from that site, and then placed into an SQL database.

I wrote a C++ utility / routine to query that SQL database, extract any one-year fluctuation (in millimeters) that are larger than the two-year fluctuation they got all verklempt about, then create the following HTML table with that data in it:

Station Name	Number	Latitude	Longitude	↕mm	Year
FOGLO-DEGERBY	249	60.0318832	20.3848171	212	1996
PAGO-PAGO	539	-14.2799997	-170.6900024	242	1999
WEIPA	1157	-12.6666670	141.8666687	180	1972
VICTOR-HARBOUR	1069	-35.5624809	138.6354065	139	1997
PORT-ADELAIDE-OUTER-HARBOR	448	-34.7797623	138.4807281	137	1972
BUNBURY	834	-33.3234444	115.6599731	130	2011
FREMANTLE	111	-32.0655556	115.7481384	139	1940
ST-GEORGES-ESSO-PIER-BERMUDA	368	32.3733330	-64.7033310	152	1974
ILHA-FISCAL	1032	-22.8966675	-43.1666679	169	1971
NEW-WESTMINSTER	1245	49.2000008	-122.9166641	221	1977
SAINT-JOHN-NB	195	45.2666664	-66.0666656	129	2014
QUEBEC-LAUZON	173	46.8333321	-71.1666641	165	1948
DESCHAILLONS	201	46.5666656	-72.0999985	346	2012
PORT-SAINT-FRANCOIS	137	46.2666664	-72.6166687	530	2012
TROIS-RIVIERES	126	46.3333321	-72.5500031	784	1944
BATISCAN	144	46.5000000	-72.2500000	392	2008
PORTNEUF	951	46.6833344	-71.8833313	226	1999
NEUVILLE	192	46.7000008	-71.5666656	190	1999
ST-JOSEPH-DE-LA-RIVE	1244	47.4500008	-70.3666687	155	1980
TUKTOYAKTUK	1000	69.4166641	-132.9666595	152	1967
ANTOFAGASTA-2	510	-23.6530552	-70.4044418	132	1973
VALPARAISO	499	-33.0272217	-71.6258316	141	1997
PENRHYN	1450	-9.0166674	-158.0666656	182	1983
BAKAR	353	45.2999992	14.5333328	133	1951
SPLIT-RT-MARJANA	685	43.5083313	16.3916664	158	2011
GEDSER	120	54.5727768	11.9255562	191	2007
RODBYHAVN	762	54.6558342	11.3486109	287	1980
KOBENHAVN	82	55.7050018	12.6000004	131	1961
HORNBAEK	119	56.0911102	12.4583330	142	1961
HIRTSHALS	89	57.5955544	9.9638891	138	1961
HANSTHOLM	703	57.1188889	8.5955563	140	1984
ESBJERG	80	55.4608345	8.4411106	168	1996
SANTA-CRUZ	1472	-0.7500000	-90.3166656	235	1997
KEMI	229	65.6733704	24.5152493	248	1939
OULU-ULEABORG	79	65.0403137	25.4182339	243	1961
RAAHE-BRAHESTAD	240	64.6663361	24.4070492	246	1961
PIETARSAARI-JAKOBSTAD	194	63.7085686	22.6895828	233	1961
VAASA-VASA	57	63.0815315	21.5711823	217	1939
KASKINEN-KASKO	285	62.3439484	21.2148323	220	1996
MANTYLUOTO	172	61.5943832	21.4634323	217	1996
RAUMA-RAUMO	376	61.1335335	21.4258175	212	1961
TURKU-ABO	239	60.4282837	22.1005325	220	1961
HANKO-HANGO	71	59.8228683	22.9765835	203	1996
HELSINKI	14	60.1536331	24.9562168	244	1996
HAMINA	315	60.5627670	27.1791992	248	1961
MARSEILLE	61	43.2788010	5.3538599	150	1951
POTI	41	42.1666679	41.6833344	183	1970
BATUMI	51	41.6333313	41.7000008	168	1949
SASSNITZ	397	54.5108337	13.6430559	148	1996
WISMAR-2	8	53.8988876	11.4580564	138	1952
PREVEZA	410	38.9590797	20.7566280	129	1991
PIRAIEVS	374	37.9373283	23.6267147	132	1992
ALEXANDROUPOLIS	1238	40.8441391	25.8782711	140	2011
APRA-HARBOUR-GUAM	540	13.4383326	144.6533356	231	1972
TAI-PO-KAU-TOLO-HARBOUR	1034	22.4424992	114.1838913	173	1970
HANASAKI-II	1442	43.2780571	145.5677795	136	1995
KAMINATO-II-HATIZYO-SIMA	1440	33.1302795	139.8047180	618	2002
MIYAKE-SIMA	1060	34.0672226	139.4808350	295	2001
KOZU-SIMA	1061	34.2091675	139.1316681	1143	2007
KURE-I	1320	33.3336105	133.2433319	139	2005
KANTON-ISLAND-B	1329	-2.8166671	-171.7166595	154	1998
KLAIPEDA	118	55.7000008	21.1333332	216	1996
KWAJALEIN	513	8.7316666	167.7350006	135	1997
ACAPULCO	686	16.8333321	-99.9166641	132	1982
YAP-B	1251	9.5166674	138.1333313	205	1997
DELFZIJL	24	53.3263893	6.9330559	147	1877
HARLINGEN	25	53.1755562	5.4094439	148	1996
DEN-HELDER	23	52.9644432	4.7449999	134	1866
MAASSLUIS	9	51.9174995	4.2497220	131	1866
VLISSINGEN	20	51.4422226	3.5961111	145	1903
WHANGAREI-HARBOUR-MARSDEN-POINT	1065	-35.7574310	174.3500366	130	1992
HONNINGSVAG	1267	70.9803162	25.9726963	145	1975
ANDENES	425	69.3260651	16.1348476	138	1952
NARVIK	312	68.4282837	17.4257584	154	1984
KABELVAG	45	68.2126389	14.4821491	158	1961
BODO	562	67.2882919	14.3908129	164	1984
ALESUND	509	62.4694138	6.1519461	169	1961
BERGEN	58	60.3980446	5.3204870	166	1920
OSLO	62	59.9085579	10.7345104	166	1984
OSCARSBORG	33	59.6780739	10.6048613	155	2011
KARACHI	204	24.8116665	66.9749985	130	1979
MALAKAL-B	1252	7.3333330	134.4666595	249	1998
BALBOA	163	8.9666672	-79.5666656	132	1989
MANILA-S-HARBOR	145	14.5833330	120.9666672	148	2008
MURMANSK	684	68.9666672	33.0499992	134	1989
UST-KARA	600	69.2500000	64.5166702	171	2013
VISE-VISE-OSTROV	704	79.5000000	76.9833298	175	1991
DIKSON	611	73.5000000	80.4000015	273	1990
SOPOCHNAIA-KARGA	917	71.8666687	82.6999969	191	1967
IZVESTIA-TSIK-IZVESTIA-TSIK-OSTROVA	728	75.9499969	82.9499969	203	1975
STERLEGOVA-STERLEGOVA-MYS	612	75.4166641	88.9000015	225	1967
KOTELNYI-KOTELNYI-OSTROV	641	76.0000000	137.8666687	398	1995
SANNIKOVA-SANNIKOVA-PROLIV	602	74.6666641	138.8999939	186	1997
KIGILIAH	642	73.3333359	139.8666687	164	1967
PEVEK	606	69.6999969	170.2500000	188	1967
TUAPSE	215	44.0999985	39.0666656	222	1922
NAGAEVO	827	59.5499992	150.7166595	188	2005
SANTANDER-I	485	43.4612999	-3.7908001	149	1947
LA-CORUNA-I	484	43.3685989	-8.3977499	138	1956
KUNGSVIK	2113	58.9966660	11.1272221	132	2011
SMOGEN	179	58.3536110	11.2177782	173	1992
STENUNGSUND	2112	58.0933342	11.8325005	130	1996
KLAGSHAMN	330	55.5222206	12.8936110	274	1991
SIMRISHAMN	2107	55.5574989	14.3577776	150	1996
KUNGSHOLMSFORT	70	56.1052780	15.5894442	173	1952
OSKARSHAMN	2106	57.2750015	16.4780560	186	1996
OLANDS-NORRA-UDDE	69	57.3661118	17.0972214	165	1900
VISBY	2105	57.6391678	18.2844448	191	1996
MARVIKEN	2104	58.5536118	16.8372211	200	1996
STOCKHOLM	78	59.3241653	18.0816669	201	1996
FORSMARK	2103	60.4086113	18.2108326	210	1996
SPIKARNA	1211	62.3633347	17.5311108	216	1996
RATAN	88	63.9861107	20.8950005	231	1961
FURUOGRUND	203	64.9158325	21.2305565	233	1939
KALIX	2101	65.6969452	23.0961113	195	2011
KO-TAPHAO-NOI	446	7.8333330	98.4333344	294	1981
FORT-PHRACHULA-CHOMKLAO-POM-PHRACHUN	444	13.5500002	100.5833359	143	1967
HOLYHEAD	5	53.3139458	-4.6204438	158	1960
SAND-POINT-POPOF-IS-AK	1634	55.3366661	-160.5016632	129	1989
ANCHORAGE	1067	61.2383347	-149.8899994	131	1968
SELDOVIA	1070	59.4399986	-151.7200012	142	1989
SEWARD	266	60.1199989	-149.4266663	130	1989
SKAGWAY	495	59.4500008	-135.3266602	130	1989
ASTORIA-TONGUE-POINT	265	46.2066689	-123.7683334	143	1948
CRESCENT-CITY	378	41.7449989	-124.1816635	135	1984
SAN-FRANCISCO	10	37.8066673	-122.4649963	146	1984
ALAMEDA-NAVAL-AIR-STATION	437	37.7716675	-122.2983322	149	1984
GALVESTON-II-PIER-21-TX	161	29.3099995	-94.7933350	148	1976
WASHINGTON-DC	360	38.8733330	-77.0216675	153	1996

The color red is used on some of the larger fluctuations shown in the "↕mm" (SLF/SlR mm) column.

Note that they (Goddard & Yin) did not even mention sea level fall or ice sheet mass / gravity (see the Mitrovica video below for the concept).

Like way too many others, they exclusively and erroneously attribute the inordinate fluctuation to land rise, land subsidence, thermal expansion, or currents.

However, those are not the main players, as I show above and elsewhere.

The reality in SLC fluctuation, (SLR / SLF), the "coin of the realm" if you will, is  ice sheet mass / gravity loss (e.g. Proof of Concept, 2, 3, 4, 5).

If they would just "take time to think" as Mitrovica, in the video below, counsels, they would realize that the land does not rise and fall four feet in a hundred or less years.

Further, "isostatic rebound" limited to ~10 mm yr. only in the area on land specifically covered with ice.

Land levels outside that perimeter fall / "subside" (Observation of glacial isostatic adjustment in “stable” North America with GPS).

To the contrary, SLC takes place a thousand kilometers, or more, away from the location where the ice sheet was / is located on land.

That SLC hinge point moves a greater distance as ice mass lost in large quantities continues (c.f. The Evolution and Migration of Sea Level Hinge Points).

This shows that the reality of conflicting SLR / SLF is ice sheet induced, via ice sheet melt / calving, and consequent loss of mass / gravity.

This is a reality still not in the thinking of way too many scientists.

Next post of this type is here.

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"They didn't have a clue." -Mitrovica

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"Ice streams are not like ice cubes." - Rignot

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