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| I see plumes |
I have completed my reading and study of the Rignot et al. paper concerning ice mass loss in Antarctica (Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979–2017).
Perhaps the sentence with the most impact in that paper is "The total mass loss from Antarctica increased from 40 ± 9 Gt/y in the 11-y time period 1979–1990 to 50 ± 14 Gt/y in 1989–2000, 166 ± 18 Gt/y in 1999–2009, and 252 ± 26 Gt/y in 2009–2017, that is, by a factor 6" (emphasis added).
About four years ago I suggested that we focus on "acceleration" because the climate dynamic is not a linear one:
"The question is not "is sea level rise accelerating?"(The Question Is: How Much Acceleration Is Involved In SLR?). Back then not many people would have entertained the notion of a factor of six acceleration, but we are already there in a little less than four years.
The consensus is that sea level rise (SLR) is accelerating.
The answer, then, is based on a three-fold spectrum: "how much was there in the past?", "how much is there now?", and "how much will there be in the future?"
Any historical or current data is ok to use to build upon, because we really need to use a known base from which to calculate prospective acceleration."
II. Other Aspects of Rignot et al. 2019
Dr. Rignot's detailed paper concerning ice mass loss in Antarctica is focused on in today's post because it gives very detailed information with which to take a closer look at "the ghost plumes" (The Ghost Plumes, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7).
The data below are possible because that paper has exquisite detail and analysis of mass loss and the imbalance taking place in Antarctica.
I am partnering the Rignot et. al. 2019 paper with the R. Bindschadler et al. 2011 paper that quantified grounding line dimensions in a clear manner.
III. The Gravamen of This Series
This series in a substantial way is about pointing out sources of sea level change (SLC) in the form of sea level rise (SLR) and sea level fall (SLF) which can replace the current sea level rise hypothesis: "thermal expansion is the major cause of sea level rise."
One obvious knee jerk reaction to a hypothesis that seeks to falsify that hypothesis is: "then where is the SLR coming from Dredd?"
I have mentioned three sources in Dredd Blog series posts (ghost photons, ghost water, and ghost plumes).
Today's post concerns the latter.
IV. The Metadata Assumptions
Today's data is a modification and enhancement of data provided in previous posts of this series.
The enhancement comes from the data supplied in the Rignot et. al. 2019 paper mentioned above.
I show the ice mass loss values from each Antarctic area ("A-F") and WOD Zones within them so as to build upon that Rignot et al. data.
The new mass loss values are in the last column on each data table following the plume volume column.
The premise or assumption the data are based on is that the ghost plumes supply enough melt water to raise global mean sea level one millimeter per year (it could be more or it could be less).
One mm of SLR means ~365 gigatons of ice melting into plumes per year (NASA).
Thus, the data are presented with that framework in mind.
The relevant percentages are shown for each area of Antarctica (e.g. Patterns: Conservative Temperature & Potential Enthalpy; Appendix One, Appendix Two, Appendix Three, Appendix-Four, Appendix-Five).
The relevant zones within those areas, from the annual down to the hourly values, are detailed below.
V. Overall Controlling Values
RE: Assumed Plume Sea Level Rise (PSLR)
(1 mm yr due to ~365 gt yr Ice mass loss)
(caused by plumes of melt water)
RE: Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL)
Melt Water at 361,841 m3 yr raises GMSL one millimeter
(current total GMSL is 3.4 mm yr)
RE: Relevant Antarctica Grounding Line (AGL)
(length: 47,455,400 m)
(1 mm yr due to ~365 gt yr Ice mass loss)
(caused by plumes of melt water)
RE: Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL)
Melt Water at 361,841 m3 yr raises GMSL one millimeter
(current total GMSL is 3.4 mm yr)
RE: Relevant Antarctica Grounding Line (AGL)
(length: 47,455,400 m)
VI. The Data by Area and Zone
West Indian Ocean (Area A)
Area's Percent of AGL (APGL)
(14.1758%; 58133.1 m3 yr)
Area's Annual Ice loss (51.7417 gt)
| Zone # | Grounding Line Length (meters) | Zone Percent of APGL | Plume Volume (cubic meters) | Zone Ice Loss (gigatons) |
| 3603 | 948062 | 14.093 | 8192.7 yr 22.4304 day 0.934599 hr | 7.29196 yr 0.0199643 day 0.000831846 hr |
| 3604 | 1070350 | 15.9108 | 9249.44 yr 25.3236 day 1.05515 hr | 8.23252 yr 0.0225394 day 0.000939142 hr |
| 3605 | 1235950 | 18.3725 | 10680.5 yr 29.2416 day 1.2184 hr | 9.50625 yr 0.0260267 day 0.00108445 hr |
| 3606 | 1090320 | 16.2077 | 9422.04 yr 25.7961 day 1.07484 hr | 8.38614 yr 0.02296 day 0.000956667 hr |
| 3700 | 714801 | 10.6256 | 6176.99 yr 16.9117 day 0.704653 hr | 5.49787 yr 0.0150523 day 0.000627181 hr |
| 3701 | 858463 | 12.7611 | 7418.42 yr 20.3105 day 0.846272 hr | 6.60281 yr 0.0180775 day 0.00075323 hr |
| 3702 | 809244 | 12.0295 | 6993.12 yr 19.1461 day 0.797755 hr | 6.22427 yr 0.0170411 day 0.000710047 hr |
East Indian Ocean (Area B)
Area's Percent of AGL (APGL)
(16.6161%; 68140.2 m3 yr)
Area's Annual Ice loss (60.6486 gt)
| Zone # | Grounding Line Length (meters) | Zone Percent of APGL | Plume Volume (cubic meters) | Zone Ice Loss (gigatons) |
| 3607 | 930701 | 11.8031 | 8042.66 yr 22.0196 day 0.917483 hr | 7.15842 yr 0.0195987 day 0.000816612 hr |
| 3608 | 650146 | 8.24512 | 5618.24 yr 15.3819 day 0.640913 hr | 5.00055 yr 0.0136908 day 0.000570449 hr |
| 3609 | 771646 | 9.78598 | 6668.19 yr 18.2565 day 0.760688 hr | 5.93506 yr 0.0162493 day 0.000677055 hr |
| 3610 | 761075 | 9.65192 | 6576.84 yr 18.0064 day 0.750267 hr | 5.85376 yr 0.0160267 day 0.00066778 hr |
| 3611 | 1325740 | 16.813 | 11456.4 yr 31.366 day 1.30692 hr | 10.1969 yr 0.0279175 day 0.00116323 hr |
| 3612 | 846227 | 10.7318 | 7312.67 yr 20.021 day 0.834209 hr | 6.50869 yr 0.0178198 day 0.000742493 hr |
| 3613 | 707331 | 8.97034 | 6112.41 yr 16.7349 day 0.697286 hr | 5.44039 yr 0.014895 day 0.000620624 hr |
| 3614 | 969389 | 12.2937 | 8376.96 yr 22.9349 day 0.955619 hr | 7.45596 yr 0.0204133 day 0.000850555 hr |
| 3615 | 922960 | 11.7049 | 7975.75 yr 21.8364 day 0.90985 hr | 7.09886 yr 0.0194356 day 0.000809818 hr |
Ross Sea (Area C)
Area's Percent of AGL (APGL)
(20.3385%; 83405.5 m3 yr)
Area's Annual Ice loss (74.2356 gt)
| Zone # | Grounding Line Length (meters) | Zone Percent of APGL | Plume Volume (cubic meters) | Zone Ice Loss (gigatons) |
| 3616 | 61040 | 0.632426 | 527.478 yr 1.44416 day 0.0601732 hr | 0.469485 yr 0.00128538 day 5.35575e-05 hr |
| 3716 | 4323960 | 44.7999 | 37365.6 yr 102.301 day 4.26256 hr | 33.2575 yr 0.0910539 day 0.00379391 hr |
| 3717 | 237006 | 2.45558 | 2048.09 yr 5.60736 day 0.23364 hr | 1.82291 yr 0.00499086 day 0.000207953 hr |
| 3816 | 1050520 | 10.8843 | 9078.1 yr 24.8545 day 1.0356 hr | 8.08002 yr 0.0221219 day 0.000921745 hr |
| 3817 | 257695 | 2.66994 | 2226.88 yr 6.09685 day 0.254036 hr | 1.98204 yr 0.00542654 day 0.000226106 hr |
| 5715 | 1119340 | 11.5973 | 9672.78 yr 26.4826 day 1.10344 hr | 8.60932 yr 0.023571 day 0.000982126 hr |
| 5815 | 1211780 | 12.5551 | 10471.6 yr 28.6698 day 1.19457 hr | 9.32035 yr 0.0255177 day 0.00106324 hr |
| 5816 | 896480 | 9.28829 | 7746.94 yr 21.21 day 0.883749 hr | 6.89521 yr 0.0188781 day 0.000786586 hr |
| 5817 | 493901 | 5.11723 | 4268.05 yr 11.6853 day 0.486887 hr | 3.7988 yr 0.0104006 day 0.000433357 hr |
Amundsen Sea (Area D)
Area's Percent of AGL (APGL)
(8.04768%; 33002.5 m3 yr)
Area's Annual Ice loss (29.374 gt)
| Zone # | Grounding Line Length (meters) | Zone Percent of APGL | Plume Volume (cubic meters) | Zone Ice Loss (gigatons) |
| 5711 | 1163710 | 30.4711 | 10056.2 yr 27.5324 day 1.14718 hr | 8.95059 yr 0.0245054 day 0.00102106 hr |
| 5712 | 411150 | 10.7657 | 3552.95 yr 9.72743 day 0.40531 hr | 3.16232 yr 0.00865796 day 0.000360748 hr |
| 5713 | 483060 | 12.6487 | 4174.38 yr 11.4288 day 0.476201 hr | 3.71543 yr 0.0101723 day 0.000423846 hr |
| 5714 | 1761140 | 46.1145 | 15218.9 yr 41.6671 day 1.73613 hr | 13.5457 yr 0.0370861 day 0.00154525 hr |
Bellingshausen Sea (Area E)
Area's Percent of AGL (APGL)
(31.2306%; 128072 m3 yr)
Area's Annual Ice loss (113.992 gt)
| Zone # | Grounding Line Length (meters) | Zone Percent of APGL | Plume Volume (cubic meters) | Zone Ice Loss (gigatons) |
| 5606 | 5020760 | 33.8769 | 43387 yr 118.787 day 4.94946 hr | 38.6168 yr 0.105727 day 0.0044053 hr |
| 5706 | 3223570 | 21.7506 | 27856.5 yr 76.267 day 3.17779 hr | 24.7939 yr 0.0678819 day 0.00282841 hr |
| 5707 | 2369980 | 15.9911 | 20480.2 yr 56.0717 day 2.33632 hr | 18.2285 yr 0.049907 day 0.00207946 hr |
| 5708 | 1966700 | 13.27 | 16995.2 yr 46.5303 day 1.93876 hr | 15.1267 yr 0.0414146 day 0.00172561 hr |
| 5709 | 889963 | 6.00491 | 7690.63 yr 21.0558 day 0.877325 hr | 6.8451 yr 0.0187409 day 0.000780869 hr |
| 5710 | 1349620 | 9.10638 | 11662.8 yr 31.9309 day 1.33045 hr | 10.3805 yr 0.0284203 day 0.00118418 hr |
Weddell Sea (Area F)
Area's Percent of AGL (APGL)
(9.5913%; 39332.6 m3 yr)
Area's Annual Ice loss (35.0082 gt)
| Zone # | Grounding Line Length (meters) | Zone Percent of APGL | Plume Volume (cubic meters) | Zone Ice Loss (gigatons) |
| 5605 | 789264 | 17.3404 | 6820.43 yr 18.6733 day 0.778056 hr | 6.07057 yr 0.0166203 day 0.000692513 hr |
| 5700 | 1012350 | 22.2417 | 8748.24 yr 23.9514 day 0.997975 hr | 7.78643 yr 0.0213181 day 0.000888253 hr |
| 5701 | 1325770 | 29.1276 | 11456.6 yr 31.3666 day 1.30694 hr | 10.1971 yr 0.027918 day 0.00116325 hr |
| 5702 | 833240 | 18.3066 | 7200.47 yr 19.7138 day 0.821408 hr | 6.40882 yr 0.0175464 day 0.0007311 hr |
| 5703 | 573334 | 12.5963 | 4954.46 yr 13.5646 day 0.56519 hr | 4.40974 yr 0.0120732 day 0.000503051 hr |
| 5705 | 17640 | 0.387557 | 152.436 yr 0.417348 day 0.0173895 hr | 0.135677 yr 0.000371463 day 1.54776e-05 hr |
VII. Closing Comments
There are thousands of miles of Antarctica tidewater glacier grounding lines that are ripe for the spontaneous generation of melt water plumes.
Those plumes are only one of several dynamics that are causing mass loss.
There is the aspect of glacial movement with or without melting in the tidewater, which deposits ice directly into the Southern Ocean by calving.
There is also ablation at the top, and basal melt at the bottom.
This series, then, is mainly about one of the dynamics that was overlooked.
The next post in this series is here, the previous post of this series is here.
There is the flume and there is the ...
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