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| Fig. 1 Path of Matthew (red lines) |
It was an embryo in its mother's womb in Africa near the southern edge of the Sahara Desert.
Warm winds blowing from east to west over the dry land mass eventually intersected with winds blowing over the Atlantic Ocean in a direction of about a 90 degree variance with the desert winds coming off Africa.
This created some spinning vortexes which were the birth of "a thing of interest" which would be watched as it was nourished by warm waters of the Atlantic.
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| Fig. 2 Water temperatures @ path of Matthew |
Matthew grew quickly into a category 1,2,3,4 and ultimately a category 5 monster hurricane.
The young monster withered back and forth some, from a 5 down to a 4, back to a 5, and so forth.
Matthew's path also oscillated as its guidance counselors and mentors, which set the directions of this type of entity (jet stream winds, atmospheric highs, land masses, etc.) struggled to be the boss, competing to guide Matthew's every movement.
The graph at Fig. 2 is constructed from data that scientists have recorded over the years in the 11 WOD zones (7101, 7102, 7103, 7104, 7105, 7106, 7107, 7207, 7307, 7406, and 7407) of Matthew's path.
It is that data, which they graciously placed into the WOD database, that now allows us to view ocean characteristics if we want to, and know how to.
That Fig. 2 graph depicts the ocean water temperatures from the surface down to the deepest depths, categorized into seven different layers (see the "Legend" on Fig. 2).
The 11 WOD zones, along the past and projected path of Hurricane Matthew, were analyzed by Dredd Blog software as follows:
WOD Zone: 7101 (all figures in deg. C)
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 101 upward & 110 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: 7.47356
- 0-200m = 0.5144
- 200-400m = 0.6312
- 400-600m = 1.70517
- 600-800m = 2.22574
- 800-1000m = 1.87079
- 1000-3000m = 0.48546
- >3000m = 0.0408
Years involved: 1968 -> 2016 (48 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (7.47356 ÷ 48): 0.155699
WOD Zone: 7102 (all figures in deg. C)
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 158 upward & 148 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: 8.1661
- 0-200m = 4.2345
- 200-400m = 2.409
- 400-600m = 1.9277
- 600-800m = 0.47443
- 800-1000m = 1.28984
- 1000-3000m = -1.09143
- >3000m = -1.07794
Years involved: 1968 -> 2016 (48 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (8.1661 ÷ 48): 0.170127
WOD Zone: 7103 (all figures in deg. C)
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 98 upward & 102 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: 15.8078
- 0-200m = 3.257
- 200-400m = 4.9948
- 400-600m = 3.2359
- 600-800m = 2.2555
- 800-1000m = 1.47301
- 1000-3000m = 0.36366
- >3000m = 0.22791
Years involved: 1983 -> 2016 (33 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (15.8078 ÷ 33): 0.479024
WOD Zone: 7104 (all figures in deg. C)
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 113 upward & 117 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: 10.158
- 0-200m = 2.3408
- 200-400m = 3.05938
- 400-600m = 1.70783
- 600-800m = 1.20536
- 800-1000m = 0.91056
- 1000-3000m = 0.51696
- >3000m = 0.41707
Years involved: 1977 -> 2016 (39 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (10.158 ÷ 39): 0.260461
WOD Zone: 7105 (all figures in deg. C)
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 150 upward & 130 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: 6.54542
- 0-200m = 2.4952
- 200-400m = 4.4957
- 400-600m = 1.11651
- 600-800m = 0.84599
- 800-1000m = -0.53569
- 1000-3000m = -1.94983
- >3000m = 0.07754
Years involved: 1969 -> 2016 (47 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (6.54542 ÷ 47): 0.139264
WOD Zone: 7106 (all figures in deg. C)
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 104 upward & 109 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: -7.53481
- 0-200m = 0.9352
- 200-400m = -0.6761
- 400-600m = -4.91038
- 600-800m = -1.55536
- 800-1000m = -1.32678
- 1000-3000m = -2.76879
- >3000m = 2.7674
Years involved: 1961 -> 2016 (55 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (-7.53481 ÷ 55): -0.136997
WOD Zone: 7107 (all figures in deg. C)
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 77 upward & 91 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 6 levels: -13.7986
- 0-200m = -0.0508
- 200-400m = -1.2387
- 400-600m = -2.71103
- 600-800m = -6.6913
- 800-1000m = -1.22707
- 1000-3000m = -1.87974
Years involved: 1961 -> 2016 (55 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (-13.7986 ÷ 55): -0.250884
WOD Zone: 7207 (all figures in deg. C)
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 170 upward & 161 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: 24.7918
- 0-200m = 0.4178
- 200-400m = 3.9188
- 400-600m = 10.3917
- 600-800m = 8.17194
- 800-1000m = 2.13895
- 1000-3000m = -1.26957
- >3000m = 1.02216
Years involved: 1968 -> 2016 (48 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (24.7918 ÷ 48): 0.516495
WOD Zone: 7307 (all figures in deg. C)
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 137 upward & 142 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: -46.7506
- 0-200m = -2.4451
- 200-400m = 0.6355
- 400-600m = -3.54615
- 600-800m = -2.60135
- 800-1000m = -11.5359
- 1000-3000m = -14.4362
- >3000m = -12.8214
Years involved: 1968 -> 2016 (48 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (-46.7506 ÷ 48): -0.973972
WOD Zone: 7406 (all figures in deg. C)
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 173 upward & 162 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 7 levels: -10.076
- 0-200m = -12.7341
- 200-400m = -1.25229
- 400-600m = 5.83383
- 600-800m = -6.75807
- 800-1000m = 3.23549
- 1000-3000m = 1.28294
- >3000m = 0.31622
Years involved: 1969 -> 2016 (47 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (-10.076 ÷ 47): -0.214383
WOD Zone: 7407 (all figures in deg. C)
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 37 upward & 32 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
Net change for 3 levels: 15.6738
- 0-200m = 4.07653
- 200-400m = 4.93084
- 400-600m = 6.6664
Years involved: 1961 -> 2015 (54 yrs)
Average change per year:
- (15.6738 ÷ 54): 0.290255
Combined averages for 11 total WOD Zones
(temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning change trends, the mean average
was 119 upward & 118 downward trends.
Average changes per depth level were:
Average change, all 7 levels: 0.95057
- 0-200m = 0.276493
- 200-400m = 1.99165
- 400-600m = 1.94704
- 600-800m = -0.220647
- 800-1000m = -0.336986
- 1000-3000m = -1.88605
- >3000m = -0.820929
Years involved: 1961 -> 2016 (55 yrs)
Average annual combined change:
- (0.95057 ÷ 55): 0.0172831 C per year
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| Fig. 3 Sea level in the 11 WOD Zones |
It is not exactly clear how Matthew will behave once it throws fits and impacts Cuba, Haiti, Jamaica, and islands north of there (or the U.S. mainland for that matter).
We watch and hope it will move east, and not become another Hurricane Sandy!
The next post in this series is here.
Wow! great work Dredd!
ReplyDeleteFair to say the heavy and sustained declines in all depths measured in zone 7107 is due to the glacial melt in the Colombian Andes over this period? How much more menacing would the final 'climbing' figure look if '7107' were removed? If due to Andean glacial melt pouring into 7107, that influence needs to be isolated away from the surrounding zones which will be affected eventually. That 0.95057 annual delta will be much higher when the ice is finally gone. I wonder if similar trends are occurring all along the W side of So America?
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2075093-el-nino-means-glaciers-in-the-andes-are-melting-at-record-rates/
Good questions Mark.
DeleteI will run it and add an update for comparison.
Here is the "combined" view with 1 zone (7107) removed:
Delete-----------------------------------
Combined averages for 10 total WOD Zones
(temperatures are in deg. C)
Concerning change trends, the mean average
was 124 upward & 121 downward trends.
Average changes per depth level were:
0-200m = 0.309222
200-400m = 2.31468
400-600m = 2.41285
600-800m = 0.426418
800-1000m = -0.247977
1000-3000m = -1.88668
>3000m = -0.903022
Average change, all 7 levels: 2.42549
Years involved: 1961 -> 2016 (55 yrs)
Average annual combined change:
(2.42549 ÷ 55): 0.0440998 C per year
-----------------------------------
Remember that these are mean averages (add up all relevant data from all zones, then divide by the number of elements).
Mark,
DeleteNotice that we have no WOD temperature measurements (CTD,PFL) for depths greater than 3000m (>3000m) in zone 7107.
Those measurements (if there are such depths there) would likely be as cool or even more cool than the depth layer just above (1000-3000m) eh?
Yeah, what about "all along the W side of So America" as Mark wondered.
ReplyDeleteI am researching some wild data gyrations circa 1980 in one of the zones along the West Coast of S. America (about a 6 deg C gyration).
ReplyDeleteWhen I clear that up I will post the results.