Will This Float Your Boat - 5

The New NOAA

I. Introduction

In today's post let's take some data from recent science, then try to determine, using percentages, a projection of sea level rise (SLR).

The difficulty with calculating and then projecting the future dynamics of the ongoing SLR, all around this globe, is complicated by the nature of water.

Ocean water expands when it is warmed, as well as when it is frozen into ice, but, in addition to those thermal factors, the capacity and rate of expansion of ocean water is also determined by content, such its salinity levels, which is how much salt there is in a particular region of ocean's water.

What, then, are the most important factors that contribute to global SLR?

II. The Ratio and the Relation

First off, a recent paper indicates that in some senses it is a 50/50 scenario:

"Sea level rise is half due to melting ice and half due to ocean warming, including 13% from the deepest oceans, a new paper has found
...
The researchers recognised that changes to sea levels are mainly caused by thermal expansion of ocean waters as they heat, changes to the saltiness of water, and an increase in ocean waters as ice melts and flows into the sea."

(New Research Reveals What's Causing Sea Level To Rise, emphasis added). That science writer's take on it is corroborated with this post:

"[SLR] reveals a lot about our changing climate. A rise in the mean sea level can be caused by decreases in ocean density, mostly reflecting an increase in ocean temperature — this is steric sea level rise. It can also be caused by an increase in ocean mass, reflecting a gain of fresh water from land. A third, and smaller, contribution to mean sea level is from glacial isostatic adjustment. The contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment, while small, has a range of possible values and can be a significant source of uncertainty in sea level budgets. Over recent decades, very roughly half of the observed mean sea level rise is owing to changes in ocean density with the other half owing to the increased in ocean mass, mostly from melting glaciers and polar ice sheets. The exact proportion has been difficult to pin down with great

It is a roller coaster ride

certainty.

Knowing the proportion of sea level rise (SLR) owing to mass addition versus thermal expansion is not only important for quantifying total SLR. Each component also imparts information about the effects of climate change. First, the ocean absorbs over 90% of the excess heat from greenhouse gas forcing. In order to monitor and model global warming accurately, we need to know where and how much heat is entering the ocean, and which is directly (although nonlinearly) related to steric SLR. Sea level rise is an important consequence of climate change, and quantifying rates of melting of land ice, including contributions from the massive Greenland and West Antarctica ice sheets is vital to understanding sea level rise. Knowing local rates of past SLR and what is driving those rates will help to improve global and local projections of SLR that are essential for informing adaptation strategies in coastal communities.

(Diagnosing Causes of Sea Level Rise, emphasis added). The mix is driven by global warming induced climate change, including changing rates of warming.

III. Quantifying the Maximum Potential SLR

The following table, prepared using USGS data, shows the maximum SLR possible from ice melt alone, and the locations of those potentials:

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Table 1. Estimated potential maximum sea-level rise from the total melting of present-day glaciers and polar ice caps. Source: USGS
Location	Volume (km3)	Potential sea-level rise, (feet)	Percent of total
East Antarctic ice sheet	26,039,200	212.58	80.676
West Antarctic ice sheet	3,262,000	26.44	10.034
Antarctic Peninsula	227,100	1.51	.57306
Greenland	2,620,000	21.49	8.1556
All other (ice caps, ice fields, glaciers)	180,000	1.48	.56167
Total	32,328,300	263.5	100.00

NOTE: thermal sea level rise (caused when this ice melt water becomes ocean water, then heats up & expands) is not included in Table 1.

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One thing occurred to me immediately: if the two factors, 1) the quantity of SLR caused by water melt from all sources entering the oceans, and 2) the thermal expansion thereafter, are added together would increase the SLR above the 263.5 feet figure.

IV. Quantifying and Timing the Rates of SLR

Another thing that occurred to me is that this 50/50 ratio is historical, i.e. "over recent decades," according to the articles quoted, which begs the question, how long will the 50/50 ratio hold?

I think that has been answered in principle in an earlier post of this series, quoting the Union of Concerned Scientists:

Sea level is rising — and at an accelerating rate — especially along the U.S. East Coast and Gulf of Mexico

• Global average sea level rose roughly eight inches from 1880 - 2009.
Global Sea Level Rise
• The average annual rate of global sea level rise accelerated from 1993 - 2008, increasing 65 - 90 percent above the twentieth century average.
• The U.S. East Coast and Gulf of Mexico experienced some of the world's fastest rates of sea level rise in the twentieth century due to local and regional factors.
• From 1880 - 2009, Miami faced 12 inches of local sea level rise; Boston, New York, and Charleston, SC, 13 to 16 inches; Virginia Beach, 30 inches; and Galveston, TX, nearly three feet.

Human activities, such as burning coal and oil and cutting down tropical forests, have increased atmospheric concentrations of heat-trapping gases and caused the planet to warm by 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit since 1880.

Climate-Related Contributions to Global Sea Level Rise
• Rising temperatures are warming ocean waters, which expand as the temperature increases. This thermal expansion was the main driver of global sea level rise for 75 - 100 years after the start of the Industrial Revolution, though its relative contribution has declined as the shrinking of land ice has accelerated.
• Land ice—glaciers, ice caps, and ice sheets—is shrinking at a faster rate in response to rising temperatures, adding water to the world's oceans.
• As the rate of ice loss has accelerated, its contribution to global sea level rise has increased from a little more than half of the total increase from 1993 - 2008 to 75 - 80 percent of the total increase between 2003 - 2007 [recent papers: it is evening out]

(Union of Concerned Scientists). Thus, it is like the race between the tortoise and the hare, or any NASCAR race for that matter, which is to say that the lead changes from time to time.

That dynamic is easy to envision if we follow the flow of water from melt in Greenland or Antarctica to the point it has concluded its 100% melt contribution.

When it first enters the ocean it is ice cold melt, but when ocean currents later move that ice cold water into areas of more sunlight, as well as into already warmer waters, that ice cold water is going to go through thermal expansion as it warms up.

The delay between contribution to sea level rise by merely entering the ocean (the first part of the total) and contribution due to thermal expansion (the second part of the total) will vary depending on location of entry, then the eventual destination determined by the ocean currents in that area.

Another complication is that surges will take place from time to time, as was pointed out recently:

Why wouldn't they when this, among a hundred other climate changes, is happening:

Coastal sea levels along continental margins often show significant year-to-year upward and downward fluctuations. These fluctuations are superimposed on a longer term upward trend associated with the rise in global mean sea level, with global mean sea level rising at roughly 3 mm per year during the recent 20 years of accurate satellite measures. For society, it is the regional changes along any particular coastal zone that are most important. Our analysis of multi-decadal tide gauge records along the North American east coast identified an extreme sea-level rise event during 2009–2010. Within this relatively brief two-year period, coastal sea level north of New York City jumped by up to 128 mm [5.05 inches]. This magnitude of inter-annual sea level rise is unprecedented in the tide gauge records, with statistical methods suggesting that it was a 1-in-850 year event.

(NOAA, An Extreme Event of Sea-level Rise, emphasis added). In other words, in the language of the warrior congress, "a surge."

The rate of sea level rise has been consistently underestimated by conservative scientists who don't want any surge of fear in the sheeple (cf. here and here).

That recent study shows how large the underestimations have been, because they incessantly fail to consider acceleration in ice sheet melts, along with other cumulative events in a damaged climate system.

The 128mm (5.04 inches) sea level rise in only two years is 2.52 inches per year, or 25.2 inches (2 ft. 1.2 in.) over ten years.

It is 85 years until 2100, by which time conservative scientists have said that a six foot sea level rise could take place (3 ft. says IPCC).

But, if there is a global 2.52 inch surge in only half (42.5) of those 85 years, the sea levels could rise about nine feet (2,52 * 42.5 = 107.1 in. / 12 = 8.93 ft.) --instead of only about six feet (the high estimate; 3ft. is the lower IPCC estimate).

Conservative as 3 ft.  is, still that is a serious rate of sea level rise, which could accelerate, because among other things even  the underlying non-surge rate is accelerating (Water, Water, Everywhere: Sea Level Rise in Miami).

(Agnotology: The Surge - 16). This 2.52 inch a year surge was a local phenomenon, however, we also have evidence that it can happen on a broader scale:

On May 22nd, 2014, global sea surface temperature anomalies spiked to an amazing +1.25 degrees Celsius above the, already warmer than normal, 1979 to 2000 average. This departure is about 1.7 degrees C above 1880 levels — an extraordinary reading that signals the world may well be entering a rapid warming phase.
...
It is very rare that land or ocean surface temperatures spike to values above a +1 C anomaly in NOAA’s Global Forecast System model summary. Historically, both measures have slowly risen to about +.35 C above the 1979 to 2000 average and about +.8 C above 1880s values (land +1 C, ocean +.6 C). But since late April, sea surface temperatures have remained in a range of +1 C above 1979 to 2000 values — likely contributing to NOAA and NASA’s temperature indexes hitting first and second hottest in the climate record for the month. During May, ocean surface heating entrenched and expanded, progressing to a new high of +1.17 C last week. As of this week, values had exceeded +1.2 C and then rocketed on to a new extreme of +1.25 C (See Deep Ocean Warming is Coming Back to Haunt Us).

(Global Sea Surface Temperatures Increase). The acceleration can be periodic over a longer span of time as well:

"Since the beginning of the 20th century, the seas have continued to rise at an average rate of 1.7 ± 0.5 mm per year, according to the IPCC  ... first noted increase ... 1963 ... 1.8 ± 0.5 mm per year ... 1993 to 2003 ... 3.1 ± 0.7 mm yr ..."

(Wunderground). The surge and acceleration factors, whether atmospheric, land, or oceans, are serious complications in terms of trying to be exact at predictions of future SLR.

But one thing is sure, the past attempts at predictions have all resulted in underestimations.

V. Attempts Based On Percentages

The rate of loss of ice is currently:

Measurements from ESA’s CryoSat mission have been used to map the height of the huge ice sheets that blanket Greenland and Antarctica and show how they are changing. New results reveal combined ice volume loss at an unprecedented rate of 500 cubic kilometres a year.
...
The resulting maps reveal that Greenland alone is reducing in volume by about 375 cubic kilometres a year.
...
The researchers say the ice sheets’ annual contribution to sea-level rise has doubled since 2009. [Table 1 type contribution - i.e. thermal sea level rise (additional) is not included in that doubling]

Glaciologist Angelika Humbert, another of the study’s authors, added, “Since 2009, the volume loss in Greenland has increased by a factor of about two and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet by a factor of three."

(ESA Cryosat, emphasis added). What if we take that current ice melt rate (500 km³), based on volume of ice melt in Greenland (375 km³) and Antarctica (125 km³), then build an estimate based on that acceleration (e.g. doubling during the period from Jan 2009 to Dec 2013)?

VI. Ice Loss Volume Percentages

A. The 14.87% Formula

Let's use a formula L = [ (f / s)^{(1 / y)} ] - 1 to calculate the annual-loss growth-rate percentage over multiple years:

Where:

L = ice-volume-loss per year
f = final volume of loss-per-yr (~500 km³)
s = starting volume of loss-per-yr (~250 km³), i.e. half
y = number of years (~5)

L = [(500/250)^(1/5)] - 1
L = (2^.2) - 1
L = 1.148698355 - 1
L = .148698355
L = 14.87% annual ice loss increase Jan. 2009 thru Dec. 2013

Test (2009-2013):

2009) 250 x 1.148698355 = 287.17458875
2010) 287.17458875. x 1.148698355 = 329.876977695
2011) 329.876977695 x 1.148698355 = 378.929141631
2012) 378.929141631 x 1.148698355 = 435.275281653
2013) 435.275281653 x 1.148698355 = 500.000000006

Ok, that checks out.

B. The Annual SLR Rate Differences

It seems, then, that the doubling of the melt of polar ice from Jan. 2009 thru Dec. 2013 may be a rare surge rather than a trend (we better hope so as the graphs below show) or it could be because of faster-melting coastal ice.

A final observation using Table 1 figures:

32,328,300 km³ (total ice volume)
32,328,300 km³ − 180,000 km³ = 32,148,300 km³ (polar ice only)
500 km³ (loss per yr. now) ÷ 321,48,300 km³ = 0.000015553

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263.5 ft. (total SLR potential)
263.5 ft. − 1.48 ft. = 262.02 (total polar SLR potential)
262.02 ft. * 0.000015553 = 0.004075197 SLR now (polar only)

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IPCC estimate of SLR by 2100 (~38 in.):

Using the formula above SLR = [ (f / s)^{(1 / y)} ] - 1 (in section "A")
Where:

SLR = rise per year
f = final rise-per-yr
s = starting rise-per-yr
y = number of years

For a 4.37% rate:
SLR = [ (f / s)(1 / y) ] - 1
SLR = [ (38 / 1)(1 / 85) ] - 1
SLR = [ 38^0.011764706 ] - 1
SLR = 1.0437240469945364 - 1
SLR = .0437240469945364
SLR = 4.37% (acceleration rate yr.)

For a 4.08% rate:
SLR = [ (f / s)(1 / y) ] - 1
SLR = [ (38 / 1.265)(1 / 85) ] - 1
SLR = [ 30.04^0.011764706 ] - 1
SLR = 1.0408417523769657 - 1
SLR = .0408417523769657
SLR = 4.08% (acceleration rate yr.)

Note that the 4.37% and 4.08% are estimated acceleration rates such as in previous IPCC reports (e.g. 4th Assessment) that are not tied to polar melt.

Never-the-less, with that in mind note that these rates (14.87%, 4.37%, or 4.08%) can still be used effectively, as will be shown.

C. The IPCC Rate Graph

So, the following graph is the result computed by software I wrote, which projects acceleration based on the 4.37% or 4.08% loss resulting in a final ~3 ft rise by Dec. 31, 2099 per the IPCC 5th Assessment.

The 4.37% or 4.08% per year IPCC derivation as a driving percentage for SLR acceleration, results in this graph:

Click on graph to Enlarge

The IPCC (4.37% & 4.08% acceleration) estimation, that was used to generate the graph curve above, seems to be an obvious underestimation, so, in the next graph below, I am going to show curves based on current measured acceleration (from the 2009-2013 doubling shown in section "A" above).

D. Do 14.87% & 4.37% or 4.08% Rates Reveal Surges?

According to Table 1, Greenland will generate a 21.49 ft. SLR if all of its ice melts.

West Antarctica will generate a 26.44 ft. SLR if all of its ice melts.

Future ice-loss-caused-SLR (Greenland & W. Antarctica combined - 21,49 ft +26.44 ft = 47.93 ft) is measured in current ice loss at a rate of 500 km³ (500 cubic kilometers) a year.

Of that current loss, Greenland contributes 375 km³ and Antarctica contributes 125 km³ (500 km³ current total loss per year).

Thus, Greenland currently takes up 75% of the ice-loss volume, while West Antarctica currently takes up 25% of the ice-loss volume.

(Note: after the coastal ice melts, the initial rate of 14.87% acceleration in both polar areas will decline. At that point a 4.37% or 4.08% acceleration rate is used in the software calculation which generates the graphs below, because the interior ice, inland and away from the coast, generally melts slower.)

I am using only 30% of total Greenland ice as the coastal amount which the 14.87% acceleration rate is applied to initially.

I am using 80% of total West Antarctica ice as the coastal amount, accelerating @14.87%, with the remaining 20% of it melting at the slower 4.37% or 4.08% acceleration rate.

I do that because scientists expect a slowing down of the rate of acceleration once the coastal melt subsides, and there is nothing but inland ice remaining.

The interior or inland ice is more stable, so that is why the 4.37% or 4.08% acceleration rate is applied to it.

E. The Combined-Values Graph

The "combined" (green line in graph below) means the melt of Greenland and W. Antarctica are added together, which is the actual total melt taking place at the same time, and taking place now.

The three are separated into three lines on the graph, only for the sake of contemplation.

Those two non-combined graph lines (red & black) are close together because W. Antarctica is larger, but Greenland is melting faster.

Here is the graph with the IPCC 3 ft. line near the bottom, which is based on what they say SLR will reach circa 2100 (shown alone in the graph above in section "C").

Click on graph to Enlarge

The two graphs show little difference whether a 4.37% or 4.08% rate is used to show acceleration after the coastal ice melts.

Notice that the ~3 ft. SLR takes place circa 2042 in these projected 14.87% -> 4.37% and 14.87% -> 4.08% acceleration details, rather than taking place circa 2100 as the IPCC projection expects.

What happens after 2042 in the graph indicates catastrophic SLR, if the current melt acceleration of 14.87% continues for perhaps another decade or so, as it has since 2009 until now.

Like I said though, it should decrease naturally as the "low hanging fruit" ice near the coasts of Greenland and W. Antarctica melt away, leaving only the more stable inland ice.

Ditto with E. Antarctica later on.

F. Concept Graph - Not To Scale

To pull it all together as a concept, here is the final graph:

Click on graph to Enlarge

During the faster coastal ice melt early on, the curve is naturally steeper, but the acceleration rate flattens out as the transition from the 14.87% acceleration rate to the lower 4.37% or 4.08% acceleration takes place.

The continuing SLR after that transition, even at the 4.37% or 4.08% acceleration rate, is due to the fact that we will then be into the internal, inland ice sheet melt which includes the vast E. Antarctica ice sheet (which generates a total of 212.58 ft of SLR per Table 1).

That SLR will also be due to the continuation of global warming, which by then could get into an increase of 4°C - 6°C.

And, it is also due to the continuing thermal expansion of all the oceans.

It is a slower growth period, in terms of acceleration rate, however, since vast ice sheets will be melting then, and the then-larger ocean will be expanding even more, because of additional heat and additional water.

VII. Conclusion

This SLR is all because cities and countries all around the world are now, have been in the recent past, and will continue to be in the future, victims of the warmonger fossil fuel empire, called Oil-Qaeda.

The empire that led us into catastrophe (The Peak of Sanity - 3).

The next post (with updates) in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

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A snowball's chance in hell argument ...

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And an adult argument in response ...

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You Are Here - 3

Click on photo to see little men in big crystals

Here

by Ed Roberson

There is nothing concrete to grasp in
looking into the morning sky

The evidence of red-eye
flights east a plane drawn line presents

is not a wheelbarrow solid enough
dependency as day and night

carry in coming and going
You don’t see the poem

saying anything you can’t see in it
White dashes of contrails’

seemingly unmoving streak towards sunrise
disquiet the pale otherwise

unpunctuated blue of dawn
breaks it off

Here is that silence

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February is African American History month

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The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

Agnotology: The Surge - 16

Sen. Inhofe's Sea Level Rise Researchers

Today let's look at unexpected as well as expected surges that are taking place in a civilization that thinks of itself as the most advanced ever (don't they all?).

Obviously, there is not very much awareness in the United States concerning the power of ignorance in our so-called most modern, enlightened, advanced, exceptional, and most evolved society.

For example, in the congress a substantial portion of the elected members are climate change deniers.

A factor that causes a large number of the observers of the members of our governing bodies and institutions to literally ask American citizens travelling abroad, if our country is going crazy (Petroleum Civilization: The Final Chapter (Confusing Life with Death) - 3).

Why wouldn't they when this, among a hundred other climate changes, is happening:

Coastal sea levels along continental margins often show significant year-to-year upward and downward fluctuations. These fluctuations are superimposed on a longer term upward trend associated with the rise in global mean sea level, with global mean sea level rising at roughly 3 mm per year during the recent 20 years of accurate satellite measures. For society, it is the regional changes along any particular coastal zone that are most important. Our analysis of multi-decadal tide gauge records along the North American east coast identified an extreme sea-level rise event during 2009–2010. Within this relatively brief two-year period, coastal sea level north of New York City jumped by up to 128 mm. This magnitude of inter-annual sea level rise is unprecedented in the tide gauge records, with statistical methods suggesting that it was a 1-in-850 year event.

(NOAA, An Extreme Event of Sea-level Rise, emphasis added). In other words, in the language of the warrior congress, "a surge."

The rate of sea level rise has been consistently underestimated by conservative scientists who don't want any surge of fear in the sheeple (cf. here and here).

That recent study shows how large the underestimations have been, because they incessantly fail to consider acceleration in ice sheet melts, along with other cumulative events in a damaged climate system.

The 128mm (5.04 inches) sea level rise in only two years is 2.52 inches per year, or 25.2 inches (2 ft. 1.2 in.) over ten years.

It is 85 years until 2100, by which time conservative scientists have said that a six foot sea level rise could take place.

But, if there is a global 2.52 inch surge in only half (42.5) of those 85 years, the sea levels could rise about nine feet (2,52 * 42.5 = 107.1 in. / 12 = 8.93 ft.) --instead of only about six feet (the high estimate - 3ft. is lower IPCC estimate).

Conservative as 3 ft. is, still that is a serious rate of sea level rise, which could accelerate, because among other things even  the underlying non-surge rate is accelerating (Water, Water, Everywhere: Sea Level Rise in Miami).

No wonder Miami Beach property, and other coastal property, is going to become cheap (Will This Float Your Boat - 3).

Another place where Agnotology shows up is in U.S. law enforcement where military doctrine has replaced traditional peace officer doctrine (Will The Military Become The Police?, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10).

Even dark military practices are showing up in places like Chicago, where Chicago police detain Americans at an abuse-laden CIA-type 'black site':

“I’ve never known any kind of organized, secret place where they go and just hold somebody before booking for hours and hours and hours. That scares the hell out of me that that even exists or might exist,” said Trainum, who now studies national policing issues, to include interrogations, for the Innocence Project and the Constitution Project.

Regardless of departmental regulations, police frequently deny or elide access to lawyers even at regular police precincts, said Solowiej of First Defense Legal Aid. But she said the outright denial was exacerbated at Chicago’s secretive interrogation and holding facility: “It’s very, very rare for anyone to experience their constitutional rights in Chicago police custody, and even more so at Homan Square,” Solowiej said.
...
“The real danger in allowing practices like Guantánamo or Abu Ghraib is the fact that they always creep into other aspects,” Siska said.

“They creep into domestic law enforcement, either with weaponry like with the militarization of police, or interrogation practices. That’s how we ended up with a black site in Chicago.”

(The disappeared, cf. The Atlantic,  RawStory). Other government officials are also practising the ignorance of junk science and using it to put people in jail for life.

In Texas they go even further and execute them based on junk science:

Most famous among wrongful arson convictions is the Texas case of Cameron Todd Willingham, who was convicted of killing his three young daughters in a fire and put to death in 2004. In The New Yorker, investigative journalist David Grann described in dramatic detail how, days before Willingham’s execution, a renowned fire scientist named Gerald Hurst rushed to show the Texas Board of Pardons and Paroles that the fire in his case had almost certainly been an accident. With evidence of prosecutorial misconduct emerging after Willingham’s death, today it is perhaps the most widely accepted example of a wrongful execution in the modern death penalty era.
...
Recent experiments have yielded troubling results. In one 2005 test, ATF researchers asked 53 professional fire investigators to pinpoint the origin of a series of post-flashover fires. Only three [5.7%] were able to do so accurately — most drew false conclusions based on burn patterns. In 2011, a test conducted by the California-based Arson Research Project asked professional fire investigators to assess 12 post-flashover burn patterns and distinguish between those that involved a liquid accelerant and those that did not. In reality, there is no way to tell the difference based on visual evidence alone. Yet out of 33 investigators, only three [9%] responded that such a conclusion could not be determined based on this evidence.

In a subsequent report, the Arson Research Project warned that between their subjective methodology and close identification with law enforcement, fire investigators are “uniquely positioned” to be susceptible to the affects of cognitive bias — in which one’s perception is colored by preexisting knowledge or assumptions. In a criminal investigation, the more contextual details a forensic analyst is given by law enforcement, the more likely he or she is to unconsciously reach conclusions that support the state’s theory. To mitigate this, the NAS report argued that forensic analysts should operate as independently from law enforcement as possible. But fire investigations involve the opposite approach, the Arson Research Project report said, instead embracing arson task forces in which “the lines between fire scene examiner and criminal investigator are not just blurred but are obliterated.”

(Playing With Fire, Junk Science). It is as if there is a surge of voodoo ignorance trances going around undetected (Choose Your Trances Carefully, 2, 3).

Why is this not generally known or reported by McTell News?

One serious study of Agnotology points out that:

"Philosophers love to talk about knowledge. A whole field is devoted to reflection on the topic, with product tie-ins to professorships and weighty conferences. Epistemology is serious business, taught in academies the world over: there is “moral” and “social” epistemology, epistemology of the sacred, the closet, and the family. There is a Computational Epistemology Laboratory at the University of Waterloo, and a Center for Epistemology at the Free University in Amsterdam. A Google search turns up separate websites for “constructivist,” “feminist,” and “evolutionary” epistemology, of course, but also “libidinal,” “android,” “Quaker,” “Internet,” and (my favorite) “erotometaphysical” epistemology. Harvard offers a course in the field (without the erotometaphysical part), which (if we are to believe its website) explores the epistemic status of weighty claims like “the standard meter is 1 meter long” and “I am not a brain in a vat.”1 We seem to know a lot about knowledge.

What is remarkable, though, is how little we know about ignorance. There is not even a well-known word for its study (though our hope is to change that—see Box 1), no fancy conferences or polished websites [take that Dredd Blog!]. This is particularly remarkable, given (a) how much ignorance there is, (b) how many kinds there are, and (c) how consequential ignorance is in our lives.

The point of this volume is to argue that there is much, in fact, to know. Ignorance has many friends and enemies, and figures big in everything from trade association propaganda to military operations to slogans chanted at children. Lawyers think a lot about it, since it often surfaces in consumer product liability and tort litigation, where the question is often “Who knew what, and when?” Ignorance has many interesting surrogates and overlaps in myriad ways with—as it is generated by—secrecy, stupidity, apathy, censorship, disinformation, faith, and forgetfulness, all of which are science-twitched. Ignorance hides in the shadows of philosophy and is frowned upon in sociology, but it also pops up in a great deal of popular rhetoric: it’s no excuse, it’s what can’t hurt you, it’s bliss. Ignorance has a history and a complex political and sexual geography, and does a lot of other odd and arresting work that bears exploring.
...
Military-sponsored research in the 1940s led to early predictions of global warming and the melting of the polar ice caps; the guardians of military secrecy kept this quiet, however, and the topic was not widely and openly discussed. Climate science has suffered new kinds of agnotology in recent years, as Bush administration strategists have tried to keep the question of anthropogenic global warming “open.” As with tobacco industry apologetics, calls for “more research” on climate change have served as an effective stalling tactic: the strong evidence of warming is denied, using the pretence of a quest for rigor as a trick to delay action. Calls for precision can play out as prevarication.

Military research has more often generated ignorance by passive agnogenesis: we have many examples where military funding has pushed certain areas, leaving others to languish."

(Agnotology, by Robert N. Proctor, emphasis added, PDF). Dr. Proctor is a serious authority on Agnotology (he and another fellow came up with the word circa 1992. ibid).

The military excuse for their denial tactics, which Dr. Proctor mentions in the quote above, reminds me of what one fellow from Texas noticed:

"Life in Lubbock, Texas, taught me two things: One is that God loves you and you're going to burn in hell. The other is that sex is the most awful, filthy thing on earth and you should save it for someone you love."

(Butch Hancock, cf. MOMCOM: A Mean Welfare Queen). That is enough about Agnotology for one post.

See you next time.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.

MOMCOM and The Sins of Libya - 3

"Thanks for all that freedom Obomber"

The faux snooze went all glittery and gold when whatever IS IS went nutso on some 25 Christians at the beach recently.

As a result, people also lost their heads at the keyboard guillotine of McTell News.

It was a regular psychotic reaction.

But, not as many noticed when the sovereign nation of Libya was beheaded as millions lost the lives they had been living there, even though it was an example of what Arnold J. Toynbee called the murder of a society:

"In other words, a society does not ever die 'from natural causes', but always dies from suicide or murder --- and nearly always from the former, as this chapter has shown."

(Choose Your Trances Carefully - 3). Not many at McTell News have reported that:

Libya provides a complete education to all students free of cost to them, from the kindergarten level up through the university level.

At least it did before it was invaded.

Libyans can purchase gasoline for their automobiles at a cost of 14 cents a litre.

At least they could before their nation was invaded.

Libya provides complete health care coverage to all of its citizens free of cost to them whatever their age.

At least it did before it was invaded.

Libya provides good labor laws "for workers’ compensation, pension rights, minimum rest periods, and maximum working hours."

At least it did before it was invaded.

["Yo Fed X me some bushie freedom Yo"]

That means women in that Islamic nation get a complete education for free, are cared for at no cost when their health is an issue, and can work in humane conditions, and wonder of wonders, women can drive automobiles in Libya.

At least it was that way before Libya was invaded.

Libya was categorized by the United Nations as a "High human development" country.

In that U.N. ranking, Libya even ranked above Saudi Arabia, for example (Saudi Arabian women cannot drive automobiles, or vote).

At least it was that way before Libya was invaded.

Libya provided $50,000 to newlyweds, and zero interest home loans to the citizens of that nation.

At least it did before it was invaded.

(MOMCOM And The Sins of Libya). What the war whores do remember in their play-pretend newspapers and plastic punditry is likely to be:

In the immediate wake of the military victory, U.S. officials were triumphant.

Writing in these pages in 2012, Ivo Daalder, then the U.S. permanent representative to NATO, and James Stavridis, then supreme allied commander of Europe, declared, “NATO’s operation in Libya has rightly been hailed as a model intervention.” In the Rose Garden after Qaddafi’s death, Obama himself crowed, “Without putting a single U.S. service member on the ground, we achieved our objectives.”

(Foreign Affairs). Now, the bands of believers are asking what "the meaning of IS IS" again, but in a more news-sexy context:

Marched on to a Libyan beach in now gruesomely familiar orange jumpsuits, the last moments of 21 Coptic Christians carried the vicious jolt of previous Isis

"A head in every pot, a rubble mobile in every garage"

snuff videos, but with an added charge of fear.

The setting, in Libya, suggested that the group was spreading further and faster than even their dramatic early advances seem possible, and it came after vows of allegiance to Isis leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi by militants from Afghanistan to Yemen ... In Libya, where Isis now controls three towns, its roots are less clear, with some fighters signing up from a homegrown militia based in Benghazi city, and others returning from Syria. The group has advanced quickly though across a country rocked by civil war, highlighting its progress with regular displays of extreme violence.

(Guardian). Yep, Libya was freed up for some real hoots and hollers of freedom fries, while being burned at the proverbial stake:

Sekou Balde is living testimony to the increasing chaos and brutality that is sweeping Libya, as fears grow that the Islamic State terrorist group is seeking

Never let our oil get under your lands

to establish a caliphate on the shores of the Mediterranean.

Lifting up his sweatshirt, he reveals the six stab wounds he received when he was attacked by a gang of four Libyan soldiers who demanded money after they raided the house near Tripoli where he was living rough with other African immigrants.

"They said 'where is your money?'. I said that I didn't have any. Then they attacked me. It was four of them against me. They came to where we were living at one in the morning. My brother was shot dead in front of me – boom, boom – as well as two of my friends," he said.

(Migrants Tell of Deepening Chaos in Libya). The McTell News is reporting that every nation in the mid-east is on edge with excitement, and quite anxious to find out who will be so blessed to next be freed.

The previous post in this series is here.

Choose Your Trances Carefully - 3

A Trance Auction

I. Introduction

Any blog that uses the technique of "a series" as Dredd Blog often does, will likely get itself into subject matter that overlaps with another series.

That is natural, because as you know, any one subject matter is likely to overlap another to some degree.

In the case of two fairly recent Dredd Blog series, this one about cultural trances, and another "Civilization Is Now On Suicide Watch", some of those almost inevitable overlaps happened; so, I needed something to draw a line or two between the overlapping subject matter, and I needed to do so without disturbing the reader's focus too much.

I think I lucked out and found a way to do it.

But first, remember that the overlapping subject matter has to do with this Toynbee observation:

"In other words, a society does not ever die 'from natural causes', but always dies from suicide or murder --- and nearly always from the former, as this chapter has shown."

(Civilization Is Now On Suicide Watch). This was his condensation of lots of text into an Earth-shaking conclusion, after having studied empires, civilizations, societies, and cultures of human history.

While reading an essay about why Arnold J. Toynbee, one of the most quoted historians at one time, fell out of "favor," I came across some material that caused an epiphany.

Yes, it "dawned on me" that his use of the word "idolatry" to describe certain events, which were taking place in our world of that time, should be compared to those used in this series to help describe the dynamic called a "cultural trance."

His background in that era of time, "the way things were," urged the use of such words.

There is some residue even now (e.g. "rock idol" today; "idolize: 1. to regard with blind adoration, devotion, etc."; "idolatry: 2. excessive or blind adoration, reverence, devotion, etc.").

Our current public discourse indicates a preference for more philosophical, psychological, cultural, and the like, words for describing such events.

Words that tend to be free from any religious sounding nomenclature.

Anyway, the essay that I mentioned above is: ‘The Toynbee Convector’: The Rise and Fall of Arnold J. Toynbee's Anti-Imperial Mission to the West".

It begins with this abstract:

In the late 1940s and early 1950s, the historian and internationalist Arnold J. Toynbee (1889–1975) conducted a highly public campaign against Western imperialism, arguing that the West needed to acknowledge and atone for its aggression if the world was to find peace. His efforts met with considerable resistance, damaging his reputation as a scholar and a political thinker. This article examines the origins of Toynbee’s anti-imperialism in his philosophy of history, his public arguments of the postwar period, and the reaction they provoked.

(The European Legacy, Vol. 17, No. 4, pp. 455–469, 2012). I came to the conclusion that what he labelled "idolatry" (when he waxed passionate about the West's dedication to a form of imperialism stimulated by nationalism on steroids) was in fact better labelled, at least for our time, as "a cultural trance."

At footnotes 22 and 23, the author of the essay notes:

22. Arnold J. Toynbee, ‘‘The Idolatry of Nationalism,’’ The Listener
4.96, 26 November 1930, 873–74.

23. Toynbee was also concerned with the idolatry of ideologies, nature, race, "parochial" and "oecumenical" communities. See A. J. Toynbee, "The Proper Study of Mankind is Man" (1958), Toynbee MS 2–3, Bodleian Library, Oxford.

If we redo those two notes, and every other place "idol" and "idolatry" are used, we can see that the shoe fits:

22. Arnold J. Toynbee, ‘‘The [Cultural Trance] of Nationalism,’’ The Listener 4.96, 26 November 1930, 873–74.

23. Toynbee was also concerned with [ideological cultural trances], nature, race, "parochial" and "oecumenical" communities. See A. J. Toynbee, "The Proper Study of Mankind is Man" (1958), Toynbee MS 2–3, Bodleian Library, Oxford.

The British Empire, where Toynbee lived, eventually was passed on to America, along with its cultural trance of imperialism, comically described by another writer of that time:

The enemy aggressor is always pursuing a course of larceny, murder, rapine and barbarism. We are always moving forward with high mission, a destiny imposed by the Deity to regenerate our victims, while incidentally capturing their markets; to civilise savage and senile and paranoid peoples, while blundering accidentally into their oil wells.

(As We Go Marching, by John T. Flynn, 1944, page 222). And, of course, as Flynn pointed out, those things were done "with God on our side" so that our wars are just holy wars to bring freedom to the barbarians.

II. The Current Cultural Trance of Imperialism

Now, America has over a thousand bases around the globe so as to protect those oil wells and markets from misuse by "their owners" (The Virgin MOMCOM - 8).

And, imperialist America has what Bill Maher calls "The Star Spangled Boner" at work in the warmongers of the American Empire.

The imperial trance is especially notable in the right wing (The Rehabilitation of High Priest Bush II - 3), but it has infected the warmongers on the left too (The War Whores Ride The War Horse - 2).

In that light, Tom Engelhardt has pointed out that "peace" is a meaningless word in the Western Empire any more.

The makers of imperialistic nomenclature no longer have a use for the word "peace":

"Here, on the other hand, is a word you won’t see in Washington: peace. Once, it was part of the American political lexicon; now, it’s essentially been banished. You’d have to be a wuss to use it.

And here’s another word that’s essentially forbidden: bases. Since World War II, the U.S. has garrisoned the planet in a way achieved by no other imperial power."

(More and War, The Tao of Washington). Engelhardt adds that since lots of people seem to have noticed, it must have been a while ago that peace went down:

Often enough when something goes missing, it takes a while to realize that it's gone. An example that came to me recently is the once-commonplace word "peace." It's not just that, in a time of public dissatisfaction with America's wars, there's no mention of a "peace movement" or "peace signs," but that in wartime Washington, when it comes to the world rather than the domestic realm, the very idea of "peace" has gone missing in action.

(Peace Missing in Action). These realities reveal a deep-seated cultural trance that happens subconsciously, automatically, and generally without even stirring up our conscious awareness of it.

III. Careless Cultural Trance Selection

Remember that a cultural trance should be selected carefully, because as we see, if it takes hold of a culture it can be perpetuated over long spans of time:

Group-mind trance does not occur only in highly charged temporary gatherings, such as riots or lynch mobs. Group-mind trance is a part of the everyday life of each one of us. We belong to various kinds of groups--families, work groups, churches, and other organizations. Each has its own group mind that entrances us, perhaps more subtly than a lynch mob, but every bit as effectively. And in the group-mind trance, we experience all the features of other trance states.

Group-mind trances give us a basis for understanding the macrotrance of culture. We could think of group-mind trances as existing on a spectrum from the family on one end to culture on the other. Culture is the group-mind trance of a whole people, and because it is so pervasive, it remains largely invisible to those who are held in its sway.

The influence of group-mind trances cannot be overestimated.
...

The trance that is least recognized but very significant in our lives is group-mind trance ... Here the individual becomes a carrier of the values and drives that characterize the group as a whole. While immersed in the group mind, people may think and act in ways that are totally out of character with how they are when separate. Group-mind trance can occur in connection with such groups as one's family, church, or club; at sports events, rock concerts, tenants' meetings, and political conventions; or when involved with the staff at work or friends at a gathering. Group-mind trance forms a bridge to cultural trance, which may be thought of as a group-mind trance on the level of a whole people.

(Comparing a Group-Mind Trance to a Cultural Amygdala, quoting psychologists). This particular cultural trance, called imperialism, was foreseen by at least two American presidents.

Those two I have in mind warned us, the one urging us to shake ourselves out of it (Beware of The Military Oil Complex), while the other intimated that we should never choose that particular cultural trance in the first place (The Greatest Source Of Power Toxins?).

IV. Herein Lies The Rub

I can hear some saying: "I did not choose imperialism, that cultural trance was here when I was born."

That is so true that it goes for all of us, because the culture lives on perpetually, as Toynbee pointed out.

But more than that, the choices are made "for us" by a very few:

THE conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. We are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of. This is a logical result of the way in which our democratic society is organized. Vast numbers of human beings must cooperate in this manner if they are to live together as a smoothly functioning society.

Our invisible governors are, in many cases, unaware of the identity of their fellow members in the inner cabinet.

They govern us by their qualities of natural leadership, their ability to supply needed ideas and by their key position in the social structure. Whatever attitude one chooses to take toward this condition, it remains a fact that in almost every act of our daily lives, whether in the sphere of politics or business, in our social conduct or our ethical thinking, we are dominated by the relatively small number of persons — a trifling fraction of our hundred and twenty [now 320] million — who understand the mental processes and social patterns of the masses. It is they who pull the wires which control the public mind, who harness old social forces and contrive new ways to bind and guide the world.
...
It is the purpose of this book to explain the structure of the mechanism which controls the public mind, and to tell how it is manipulated by the special pleader who seeks to create public acceptance for a particular idea or commodity. It will attempt at the same time to find the due place in the modern democratic scheme for this new propaganda and to suggest its gradually evolving code of ethics and practice.

(Epigovernment: The New Model, quoting the book Propaganda, by Bernays). The exercise, then, is to change the culture even while those who control the selection of cultural trances are against such changes.

V. Other Complications

History is not on the side of political course correction (The Elections of Pontius Pilots, 2, 3, 4, 5), especially when imperialism gets into the bloodstream of a culture.

It is exponentially more difficult when that imperialism is also mixed with economic survival:

The 5th Fleet together with troops are in the Middle East where there is lots of oil.

The 4th Fleet has been reactivated after 58 years of being moth balled, and has been sent to Central / South America where there is also lots of oil.

A website of the federal government tells us:

"Oil is the lifeblood of America’s economy."

(Department of Energy [they removed it, so here is The Wayback Machine copy of that page: Department of Energy]). Which is the same thing as saying you are economically dead without your blood, your oil.

The struggle for economic life then, would be the struggle for oil would it not?

Bush II put it in the cowboy language during a state of the union address to congress, saying that "America is addicted to oil".

(The Fleets & Terrorism Follow The Oil). That federal government website and Bush II were both correct in their analysis that linked oil with economy.

VI. Toynbee's Religious Sounding Words Were Accurate

Even if you are not convinced that Toynbee's use of "idolatry" was exclusively because of his era's religious understanding, still he was correct to point out the religious undertones of the decisions which institutionalized oil-based imperialism linked to oil-based economy.

Books by Senator John McCain (currently chair of the Senate Committee on Armed Services) as well as other authors, point that out:

From the moment he arrived at the Admiralty, a young man of destiny, Churchill started to prepare the fleet for the Battle of Armageddon he believed was inevitable.
...
Then, in 1911, the German Kaiser provoked the Agadir crisis ... Churchill went to the Admiralty and his outlook transformed. He was immediately confronted with the decisive question: to convert the navy from coal to oil ... the "fateful plunge" was made ... in April 1912 ... five oil-burning battleships were approved.
...
Britain was well supplied with coal [but not oil]. It was the Royal Navy which was the impetus for the development of the oil industry in Britain. The problem was supply and the security of that supply. Initially, the British government purchased shares in the Anglo-Persian Oil Company, subsequently, British Petroleum [BP].

(The Universal Smedley - 2, cf. Viva Egypt - 2, 3). The religious tenet or religious cultural trance, i.e. the strong belief in "The Battle of Armageddon", was the driving idea that guided the decisions that eventually addicted civilization to oil.

VII. Conclusion

Thus, whether we call it "idolotry" or "a cultural trance" the results are the same (Civilization Is Now On Suicide Watch, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7).

Toynbee went down in flames just as Sigmund Freud did, in terms of popularity, because they would not flatter civilization with the lies which the powers that be wanted inserted into the collective psyche, the culture, of the populace.

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.