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Tuesday, December 22, 2015

On The Origin of the Sea-level Seesaw

Fig. 1 Sinbad the Sailor grasped
by the Old Man of the Sea
I. Work @ Home

When scientists do not do their "homework," a long-lasting form of secular mythology can ensue.

The same applies to science writers and to journalists who could care less.

The serious scientist's homework can be defined as "being or becoming aware of what fellow scientists have published" on the subject at hand.

In the case of sea level change (SLC), regular readers know that Dredd Blog has talked about some of the homework assignments that should have been done, but never-the-less were never done.

II. Historical Records

In the case of a scientist publishing a scientific paper on sea level, there are many historical records of various forms, the ultimate being the published science paper in a relevant scientific journal.

Fig. 2 "Thermal" goes both ways
For example, a scientist who definitely does his homework, pointed out that Woodward published a paper in 1888 about seesaw dynamics:
To our knowledge, Woodward (1888) was the first to demonstrate that the rapid melting of an ice sheet would lead to a geographically variable sea level change. Woodward (1888) assumed a rigid, non-rotating Earth, and therefore self-gravitation of the surface load was the only contributor to the predicted departure from a geographically uniform (i.e. eustatic) sea level rise. This departure was large and counter-intuitive. Specifically, sea level was predicted to fall within ∼2000 km of a melting ice sheet, and to rise with progressively higher amplitude at greater distances. The physics governing this redistribution is straightforward.
(On the West Side of Zero, emphasis added). Nevertheless, some scientists, science writers, and journalists "did not have a clue," and still don't, about why the seesaw pattern is "the norm" (Climate Change and El Niño Will Make Ocean Levels Swing Like a Seesaw, Climate Threatens Pacific with Seesaw Sea Levels).

I mean "the norm" for the sea-levels of the world written in the history "books" which we call "tide gauge station" records (Questionable "Scientific" Papers - 3, Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 54, SLC Fingerprints R Us - 2).

A premier source for the raw data, which should be combined with scientific inquiry and comment in journals, would be the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL).

III. Taking Time To Just Think About It

The venerable Dr. Mitrovica mentions in his video presentation in Washington, D.C., that he was given good advice a couple of decades ago when he asked a senior scientist for some advice.
Fig. 3 North & South of Zero
The senior scientist replied and told him to always take time to think about an issue without any other influence or disturbance (The Gravity of Sea Level Change, video).

That would be good advice for us to take into consideration when considering the large and small of the sea level seesaw dynamics that are the norm in tide gauge records around the world.

Today, as pointed out by the Union of Concerned Scientists, we still think of thermal expansion as the "big dog" in the SLC of the early days:
"Rising temperatures are warming ocean waters, which expand as the temperature increases. This thermal expansion was the main driver of global sea level rise for 75 - 100 years after the start of the Industrial Revolution, though its relative contribution has declined as the shrinking of land ice has accelerated."
(UCSUSA, emphasis added). Yesterday's post took some exception to that notion (Questionable "Scientific" Papers - 3).

IV. Sea Level Rise Is Expansion
But
Sea Level Fall Is Contraction

If you will notice Fig. 2 and Fig.3, then think about it, thermal has to do with temperature.

Temperature has to do with both low and high temperatures (4 below zero is a temperature, as is 20 above zero).

Any temperature below or above the optimum thermal point for maximum water density, 4oC, will cause thermal expansion of water.

When the ocean water is at 4oC, the water will thermally expand whether the temperature goes up or it goes down.

V. Enter Woodward and His Scientific Progeny

Thus, as Dredd Blog has been wont to do for way too long, according to some disgruntled readers, we must turn to the geophysical realm to discern a good part of the saga and the science of SLC.

Dr. Mitrivica, a learned scientist and one who respects the work of those scientists whose shoulders we now stand upon, knocked the socks off of those of us who are now expanding upon his concepts that were an expansion upon the work of Woodward (1888).

The series begun today will, in future posts, take a very close look at the causes of the seesaw pattern of SLC, a pattern as I have said, that is composed of both SLR and SLF, as was pointed out in the first post:

Station NameNumberLatitudeLongitude↕mmYear
FOGLO-DEGERBY24960.031883220.38481712121996
PAGO-PAGO539-14.2799997-170.69000242421999
WEIPA1157-12.6666670141.86666871801972
VICTOR-HARBOUR1069-35.5624809138.63540651391997
PORT-ADELAIDE-OUTER-HARBOR448-34.7797623138.48072811371972
BUNBURY834-33.3234444115.65997311302011
FREMANTLE111-32.0655556115.74813841391940
ST-GEORGES-ESSO-PIER-BERMUDA36832.3733330-64.70333101521974
ILHA-FISCAL1032-22.8966675-43.16666791691971
NEW-WESTMINSTER124549.2000008-122.91666412211977
SAINT-JOHN-NB19545.2666664-66.06666561292014
QUEBEC-LAUZON17346.8333321-71.16666411651948
DESCHAILLONS20146.5666656-72.09999853462012
PORT-SAINT-FRANCOIS13746.2666664-72.61666875302012
TROIS-RIVIERES12646.3333321-72.55000317841944
BATISCAN14446.5000000-72.25000003922008
PORTNEUF95146.6833344-71.88333132261999
NEUVILLE19246.7000008-71.56666561901999
ST-JOSEPH-DE-LA-RIVE124447.4500008-70.36666871551980
TUKTOYAKTUK100069.4166641-132.96665951521967
ANTOFAGASTA-2510-23.6530552-70.40444181321973
VALPARAISO499-33.0272217-71.62583161411997
PENRHYN1450-9.0166674-158.06666561821983
BAKAR35345.299999214.53333281331951
SPLIT-RT-MARJANA68543.508331316.39166641582011
GEDSER12054.572776811.92555621912007
RODBYHAVN76254.655834211.34861092871980
KOBENHAVN8255.705001812.60000041311961
HORNBAEK11956.091110212.45833301421961
HIRTSHALS8957.59555449.96388911381961
HANSTHOLM70357.11888898.59555631401984
ESBJERG8055.46083458.44111061681996
SANTA-CRUZ1472-0.7500000-90.31666562351997
KEMI22965.673370424.51524932481939
OULU-ULEABORG7965.040313725.41823392431961
RAAHE-BRAHESTAD24064.666336124.40704922461961
PIETARSAARI-JAKOBSTAD19463.708568622.68958282331961
VAASA-VASA5763.081531521.57118232171939
KASKINEN-KASKO28562.343948421.21483232201996
MANTYLUOTO17261.594383221.46343232171996
RAUMA-RAUMO37661.133533521.42581752121961
TURKU-ABO23960.428283722.10053252201961
HANKO-HANGO7159.822868322.97658352031996
HELSINKI1460.153633124.95621682441996
HAMINA31560.562767027.17919922481961
MARSEILLE6143.27880105.35385991501951
POTI4142.166667941.68333441831970
BATUMI5141.633331341.70000081681949
SASSNITZ39754.510833713.64305591481996
WISMAR-2853.898887611.45805641381952
PREVEZA41038.959079720.75662801291991
PIRAIEVS37437.937328323.62671471321992
ALEXANDROUPOLIS123840.844139125.87827111402011
APRA-HARBOUR-GUAM54013.4383326144.65333562311972
TAI-PO-KAU-TOLO-HARBOUR103422.4424992114.18389131731970
HANASAKI-II144243.2780571145.56777951361995
KAMINATO-II-HATIZYO-SIMA144033.1302795139.80471806182002
MIYAKE-SIMA106034.0672226139.48083502952001
KOZU-SIMA106134.2091675139.131668111432007
KURE-I132033.3336105133.24333191392005
KANTON-ISLAND-B1329-2.8166671-171.71665951541998
KLAIPEDA11855.700000821.13333322161996
KWAJALEIN5138.7316666167.73500061351997
ACAPULCO68616.8333321-99.91666411321982
YAP-B12519.5166674138.13333132051997
DELFZIJL2453.32638936.93305591471877
HARLINGEN2553.17555625.40944391481996
DEN-HELDER2352.96444324.74499991341866
MAASSLUIS951.91749954.24972201311866
VLISSINGEN2051.44222263.59611111451903
WHANGAREI-HARBOUR-MARSDEN-POINT1065-35.7574310174.35003661301992
HONNINGSVAG126770.980316225.97269631451975
ANDENES42569.326065116.13484761381952
NARVIK31268.428283717.42575841541984
KABELVAG4568.212638914.48214911581961
BODO56267.288291914.39081291641984
ALESUND50962.46941386.15194611691961
BERGEN5860.39804465.32048701661920
OSLO6259.908557910.73451041661984
OSCARSBORG3359.678073910.60486131552011
KARACHI20424.811666566.97499851301979
MALAKAL-B12527.3333330134.46665952491998
BALBOA1638.9666672-79.56666561321989
MANILA-S-HARBOR14514.5833330120.96666721482008
MURMANSK68468.966667233.04999921341989
UST-KARA60069.250000064.51667021712013
VISE-VISE-OSTROV70479.500000076.98332981751991
DIKSON61173.500000080.40000152731990
SOPOCHNAIA-KARGA91771.866668782.69999691911967
IZVESTIA-TSIK-IZVESTIA-TSIK-OSTROVA72875.949996982.94999692031975
STERLEGOVA-STERLEGOVA-MYS61275.416664188.90000152251967
KOTELNYI-KOTELNYI-OSTROV64176.0000000137.86666873981995
SANNIKOVA-SANNIKOVA-PROLIV60274.6666641138.89999391861997
KIGILIAH64273.3333359139.86666871641967
PEVEK60669.6999969170.25000001881967
TUAPSE21544.099998539.06666562221922
NAGAEVO82759.5499992150.71665951882005
SANTANDER-I48543.4612999-3.79080011491947
LA-CORUNA-I48443.3685989-8.39774991381956
KUNGSVIK211358.996666011.12722211322011
SMOGEN17958.353611011.21777821731992
STENUNGSUND211258.093334211.83250051301996
KLAGSHAMN33055.522220612.89361102741991
SIMRISHAMN210755.557498914.35777761501996
KUNGSHOLMSFORT7056.105278015.58944421731952
OSKARSHAMN210657.275001516.47805601861996
OLANDS-NORRA-UDDE6957.366111817.09722141651900
VISBY210557.639167818.28444481911996
MARVIKEN210458.553611816.83722112001996
STOCKHOLM7859.324165318.08166692011996
FORSMARK210360.408611318.21083262101996
SPIKARNA121162.363334717.53111082161996
RATAN8863.986110720.89500052311961
FURUOGRUND20364.915832521.23055652331939
KALIX210165.696945223.09611131952011
KO-TAPHAO-NOI4467.833333098.43333442941981
FORT-PHRACHULA-CHOMKLAO-POM-PHRACHUN44413.5500002100.58333591431967
HOLYHEAD553.3139458-4.62044381581960
SAND-POINT-POPOF-IS-AK163455.3366661-160.50166321291989
ANCHORAGE106761.2383347-149.88999941311968
SELDOVIA107059.4399986-151.72000121421989
SEWARD26660.1199989-149.42666631301989
SKAGWAY49559.4500008-135.32666021301989
ASTORIA-TONGUE-POINT26546.2066689-123.76833341431948
CRESCENT-CITY37841.7449989-124.18166351351984
SAN-FRANCISCO1037.8066673-122.46499631461984
ALAMEDA-NAVAL-AIR-STATION43737.7716675-122.29833221491984
GALVESTON-II-PIER-21-TX16129.3099995-94.79333501481976
WASHINGTON-DC36038.8733330-77.02166751531996
(Questionable "Scientific" Papers). Those seesaw changes are both up and down, and therefore cannot be caused solely by expansion because some are contractions at the exact same spot where an expansion took place just the year before.

It is time to realize that gravity, rotation, axial relocation, and relocation of ice sheets by geophysical dynamics are the main players (ice sheets are shape-shifters which melt to become oceans, and they take the ice-mass-gravity with them).

VI. Question Propagandized Climate Narratives

I have been looking into the historical foundation for notions such as "El Niño," "La Nina," and "The Polar Vortex."

I am doing so because I think many aspects of current civilization's development of explanations is wrong headed.

The home work was not done, and the nomenclature that has been developed as a result of such neglect is not trustworthy (e.g. False Climate Change Meme Infects The President, 2).

Oil-Qaeda has been working on our minds for a long time, so we should revisit all of the "did climate change cause this one catastrophe" tricks (e.g. "No Single Weather Event Can Be Linked Directly To Global Warming", "Why Hurricane Patricia Can't Be Blamed On Climate Change", "Any Global Warming Over The Past Few Decades Can Be Explained by El Niño Activity").

They are trying harder than ever to kill us off (The Private Empire's Social Media Hit Squads, 2).

VII. Conclusion

The seesaw historical patterns at tide gauge stations around the world are the fingerprints of a planet writhing in the torment inflicted upon it by a murder suicide pact (Oil-Qaeda & MOMCOM Conspire To Commit Depraved-Heart Murder).

A planet writhing in the hurt of having to bring into order the changing of the guards, and to order the invasion that will make current civilization extinct (The Extinction of Charleston, The Extinction of Philadelphia, The Extinction of Washington, D.C., The Extinction of Robust Sea Ports, The Extinction of Boston, The Extinction of Miami, The Extinction of Manzanillo, The Extinction of Houston, The Extinction of Providence, The Extinction of Chesapeake Bay Islands, Greenland & Antarctica Invade The United States, 2, 3, 4, The 1% May Face The Wrath of Sea Level Rise First, Why The Military Can't Defend Against The Invasion).

Stay tuned-in, and continue with your thinking.

The next post in this series is here.
The Moody, Blues (lyrics here):


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