The Evolution of Models - 8

Fig. 1 SLR Software

It ought not be a surprise that one can learn more about sea level rise (SLR) by writing a computer program that calculates SLR.

First, one must study the current science and current software, place relevant data into a database of some sort, so that expressing the science is a function of reading valid data, not to mention having a patriotic red, white, and blue display screen to enthral the deniers (Kleenex to wipe off the patriotic drool not included).

The graphic, Fig. 1, shows the Linux version 1.00 initial display screen (it is a console application, not a GUI).

I used the Code::Blocks IDE, wrote the software in C++ source code, then compiled it using the Gnu C++ compiler ("g++").

Fig. 2 (click to enlarge)

The graphic Fig. 2 shows the data values which generated the graph at Fig. 3.

Changing the data values changes the output, which changes the graph ("follow the data" is the equivalent of "follow the money").

Some data are more influential, i.e. will cause greater changes to the output, than other data.

One can learn a lot about individual data that drives SLR by hypothetical "what if" experiments.

Fig. 3 (click to enlarge)

This format makes it easier to experiment with ranges of data values, which all the researchers tend to use these days (e.g. "a range of 3 to 6 feet by year X").

Exact estimates are fine, however, the better practice is to give a range because there are uncertainties and there are certainties.

For example, acceleration of SLR is a certainty, however, "exactly how much?" and "exactly when?" are uncertainties (The Question Is: How Much Acceleration Is Involved In SLR? - 4).

Another certainty is that, at some time in the future, Antarctica will overtake Greenland as the main contributor to SLR (model SLR software should simulate that), but "exactly when?" that swapping will take place is an uncertainty.

The better one understands the locations (Antarctica, Greenland) and zones (coastal, inland 1, inland 2, and no melt) where the melt and ice calving is taking place, and the better one keeps the data fresh, the more the uncertainties are diminished (see section "SEA LEVEL RISE (Melting Ice @poles and elsewhere)" on the Series Posts Page).

The next post in this series is here, the previous post in this series is here.